ElectionRecon
@ElectionRecon
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Welcome to the Oasis of Reality! 3 Politicos, Combat Vets & Election Geeks providing bias free analysis. Over 25+ years combined campaign experience.
The Oasis of Reality
Joined May 2020
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RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) TEXAS 34TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Mayra Flores (R) now leads Vicente Gonzalez (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 235
Democrats: 200
#Election2022
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437
Our View: It's too long. There has to be a better compromise between accessibility and faster results. Election Season is not healthy for our society in these times. These long counts fuel conspiracy & confuse the electorate. In the UK can vote & count in 24-36 hours, so can CA.
Voter accessibility > Fast Counting. Great work
@DCLogan
!!
California democracy is strong and we are leading the nation in fair and inclusive electoral practices.
#FairRepresentation
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1
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13
86
359
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) NEW HAMPSHIRE *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Don Bolduc (R) now leads Maggie Hassan (D) for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 53
Democrats: 46
Runoff: 1
#Election2022
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83
316
Dear
@CNNPolitics
... Republicans won the House hours ago. Go ahead and take a peak at
@DecisionDeskHQ
's paper to get some help on this test.
CNN PROJECTION: Republican Rep. Ken Calvert wins California's 41st Congressional District, bringing the GOP just one seat away from control of the House
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236
@Peoples_Pundit
We have been screaming to anyone who will listen, that the real variable is where indies end up. All these Dem talking heads about EV is mute & nonsensical - if indies break GOP in Nevada for instance by even like 56% it's over, if it's 60%+ it's going to be brutal for NV Dems.
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221
Our Take: REP is correct. This election was always going to be about enthusiasm in the majors parties, but even more so where true independents are going to break. That's why the ER model is so bullish for the GOP.
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200
Good grief
@CenterStreetPAC
144 RV polled??? For an entire congressional district??? What a joke. Effective immediately all
@CenterStreetPAC
polls are being removed from our model. We have strong doubts about their integrity & ethics at this point.
#lowconfidencepolls
#CO03
:
Adam Frisch (D) 45% (+5)
Lauren Boebert (R-inc) 40%
.
@CenterStreetPAC
(D), 144 RV, 9/30-10/6
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3K
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203
We finally were able to review enough
@BigDataPoll
's (run by
@Peoples_Pundit
) to include them in our model.
What did we find?
A surprisingly refreshing common sense approach to modern polling, in both methodology & practice, which resulted in high accuracy & low bias.
(1/4)
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153
We get asked (criticism) why certain polls are rated higher in our model then most media polls. We rate polls based on margin of difference from actual results. Based on this metric we trust pollsters like
@trafalgar_group
,
@SusquehannaPR
,
@BigDataPoll
over most news media polls.
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37
124
Our daily reminder to the MSM that CA-3 was over days ago, (kudos to
@DecisionDeskHQ
for being fair/smart enough to call it) &
@KevinKileyCA
has indeed won this race.
@FoxNews
@CNN
@NBCNews
etc. call all keep it off the board as long as they want... the result won't change.
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30
124
It's no secret (to our small following - as we are like the Mick Foley of Election shows) that our two resident GOPers here are big fans of
@Peoples_Pundit
, but even our resident DEM agrees with the final analysis:
@BigDataPoll
is a TOP 3 pollster nationally since 2016.
(2/4)
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112
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) WISCONSIN *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
@RonJohnsonWI
now leads
@TheOtherMandela
for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49
#Election2022
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30
100
Honestly that's either the best curing effort in American history.... or highly suspicious to us. But then again it's been an election of first. So we give it the benefit on the doubt.
Joe Gloria says all remaining ballots besides cures and provisionals will be reported out today.
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4K
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Please for the love of all that is HOLY!
@RealClearNews
launch your polling accountability project immediately. Stat! Fire for effect!
We are in a serious polling integrity emergency. Good grief
@FandMPoll
.
We need a
@Peoples_Pundit
WWF Rock style beat down of this nonsense.
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Probably not.
FWIW, more than polling, special elections, Washington primaries, and everything else, my lodestone for evaluating this election has simply been that the president's party always fares poorly in midterms, absent a job approval over, say, 60%. Maybe this time is different. Maybe.
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Here it is the final projections from the ER Model for Election 2022.
Not much change from 11/6.
GOP ⬇️ 0.2 in the generic.
OR GOV Flipped To Tilt D.
Swap in CA13 & VA8 House Seats to Tilt D & Tilt R respectively.
No major shifts in the Senate or State Legislatures.
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Our model still has the NV Senate race as Tilt R. But Ralston has been very accurate over the years. Nevada will be a fun one to watch tomorrow night.
My predictions are out!
I think
@SenCortezMasto
hangs on,
@JoeLombardoNV
wins in a squeaker and Dems retain two of three House seats.
But what do I know?
Spoiler alert: Everything.
Or is it...nothing?
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3K
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Our View: We agree the MSM (& their respective pollsters) are so hypocritical & subjective in their analysis, methods & reporting, that in any sane world - it would read as satire.
@Peoples_Pundit
is absolutely correct here & we believe MSM polling is about to take yet another L.
Lastly, there are no examples of widespread polling OR (fake) forecast errors favoring Republicans.
The insinuation that we should be skeptical of forecasts favoring House Republicans because they also forecasted a Hillary Clinton win, is shillin’ like a villain at the highest!
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CHECK IT OUT! Episode 10 of the 2022 Election "What In The Hell Are We Doing?" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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Our View: This remains sexist at the highest level. People need to leave this woman alone. We wish more "Leaders" would do normal everyday things to bring them down to earth. We should not be punishing them for it. This is a ridiculous story.
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RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) PENNSYLVANIA *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Mehmet Oz (R) now leads John Fetterman (D) for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 51
Democrats: 48
Runoff: 1
#Election2022
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13
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We can't disagree with this point. Our ratings have moved significantly to the left due to far many RV polls which we have low confidence in. We are openly discussing downgrading RV polls even further and boosting LV polls in our modeling.
"Ratings Changes" are being justified by bad polling. Fundraising and spending are secondary, believe that.
When the polls tighten, watch how much longer it takes to move those ratings back.
Every. Single. Cycle.
It's the same movie over and over again.
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540
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13
67
Nominate the platform/channel for us to react to in Episode 3 of our
#ReactionMonday
series.
Here is our teams nominations:
Josh - Knight Talk
Jeff -
@RedEaglePatriot
Lauren -
@FiveThirtyEight
Alyssa - Fox News (Stephen A. Smith on Waters World)
Red Eagle Politics
92
Knight Talk
65
538 Politics Podcast
22
Stephen A & Waters (FOX)
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43
CHECK IT OUT! Episode 5 of the 2022 Election "The Things We Do To Women!" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
If you're a lady this episode might be entertaining for you!
Find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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CHECK IT OUT! Episode 3 of the 2022 Election "Dear China, Just Bring It!" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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It's this kind of hypocrisy that makes us so angry at MSM & major prognosticators - they will chide/ban/attack folks like
@trafalgar_group
,
@Peoples_Pundit
&
@RealClearNews
but are silent on this nonsense. Absolute joke.
0
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65
Much like a certain Simon & Tom... either Morning Consult will be Mad Genius or just plain Mad.
You Decide.
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48% (+5)
Republicans 43%
.
@MorningConsult
/
@Politico
, 2,005 RV, 11/4-5
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3K
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CHECK IT OUT! Episode 2 of the 2022 Election "The Govt. Fails Veterans Again" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
0
3
42
CHECK IT OUT! Episode 4 of the 2022 Election "Civil War? Careful What You Wish For." is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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43
Again... take a seat this party has been going for hours... but glad y'all showed up.
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Bottom Line: In this business EVERYTHING is measurable. Results matter & speak for themselves.
Folks can debate, ban/write off
@BigDataPoll
because they don't like
@Peoples_Pundit
views, but it doesn't mean his product is bad or he's wrong. Indeed, he's very often right.
(4/4)
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10
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CHECK IT OUT! Episode 7 of the 2022 Election "Mind Your Own Business & God Save The Queen!" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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Ultimately, we don't care if a pollster is R/D in their personal views/beliefs. We only care about results, margins of error from results, bias, & accuracy.
Fact is
@BigDataPoll
excels in all of the above & the addition of their polls will make our model more accurate.
(3/4)
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58
CHECK IT OUT! You asked for it! We delivered! It's our first
#ReactionMonday
. You voted for a reaction to Let's Talk Elections - and we made it so! Here is EP1: LTE's Response To ABC/WaPo Poll!
Watch, Like, Share, Comment & Subscribe Below:
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CHECK IT OUT! Episode 6 of the 2022 Election "The Double Standards Must Stop!" is out on the Election Recon Podcast!
You can also find our podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher Radio, & IHeartRadio!
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Our Take: We call this type of analysis: "First Class Common Sense." Followed by: "It's sad that had to be said out loud." But someone had to say it, bc if it goes unchecked, well y'all know the story of if you give a mouse a cookie... thanks for the yeomans work
@Peoples_Pundit
.
It's not illogical, at all.
When they bet on states, they're being influenced by historically inaccurate and poorly conducted polling.
When they bet on overall control, they are being influenced by all the signs that point to a Red Wave Rout.
It's also called a hedge.
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The fact that
@FoxNews
decision desk has called CA-9 but not CA-3 or CA-27 really says it all in terms of cable/network news competence on elections.
No matter if it's a win for the Ds or the Rs the math is the math. They know god damned well what the math is. They don't care.
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51
Our own Josh Whitfield & Jeff Rockwell with the slow head nods in approval to
@Peoples_Pundit
's "I actually love forecasting over polling - I am actually kinda nerdy that way." Also a slow clap for the celebration of
@RealClearNews
' announcing the polling accountability project.
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51
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) MICHIGAN 8TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Paul Junge (R) now leads Dan Kildee (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 239
Democrats: 196
#Election2022
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6
52
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) NEW MINNESOTA 2ND DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Tyler Kistner (R) now leads Angie Craig (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 239
Democrats: 196
#Election2022
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5
38
Long way to go, but Nevada, Florida and Virginia looking rough for Democrats.
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5
35
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) NEVADA *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Adam Laxalt (R) now leads Catherine Cortez Masto (D) for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 51
Democrats: 49
#Election2022
0
3
33
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) OREGON 5TH *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
@LChavezDeRemer
now leads
@JamieforOregon
for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Democrats: 206
Republicans: 229
#Election2022
0
2
4
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) ARIZONA *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Blake Masters (R) now leads Mark Kelly (D) for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 52
Democrats: 47
Runoff: 1
#Election2022
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4
26
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) WASHINGTON 8TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Matt Larkin (R) now leads Kim Schrier (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 241
Democrats: 194
#Election2022
1
7
29
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Karoline Leavitt (R) now leads Chris Pappas (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 239
Democrats: 196
#Election2022
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@Peoples_Pundit
Anecdotal to be sure, but one of our team here is married to a NY girl who has a father retired from NYPD. We have heard from 5 NYPD guys (all democrats) who claim they are voting for Zeldin. Crime is a major motivator on NY voters minds. But... in these tribalistic times 🤷♀️ 🤷♂️
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2
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RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) MICHIGAN 3RD DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
John Gibbs (R) now leads Hillary Scholten (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 235
Democrats: 200
#Election2022
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7
28
@Peoples_Pundit
But really being as we all have elections we are involved in across the nation right now... really this is all of us at ER now.... 🤣
0
0
27
CA Redistricting Watch:
@WeDrawTheLines
what in the actual
#redistricting
hell are we still doing on Assembly maps, it's 10-till-4PM! Make your deadlines! Our anxiety is going up. Put this to bed the asm. maps are just fine. Good grief!
@pedrotoledo
@LadyTrenaTurner
@sarasadhwani
5
2
15
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) CALIFORNIA 22ND *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
@dgvaladao
now leads
@rudysalasjr
in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Democrats: 208
Republicans: 227
#election2022
0
2
9
Following DDHQ - for the first time since General Election season began, GOP has the slightest of advantages in 538 model for the Senate.
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@sarasadhwani
@pedrotoledo
@LadyTrenaTurner
wisely understand that there is so much work to be done in LA, SD & Orange counties. If commission is going to make their Monday deadline, finishing up what looks to be good & sensible Asm. maps (for the most part) in NorCal seems wise.
0
1
5
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) NEW YORK 19TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Marc Molinaro (R) now leads Josh Riley (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 239
Democrats: 196
#Election2022
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4
23
Lastly, how their absence in the process affects them for the next decade? Why where they absent? Was there enough (if any) outreach to Veterans by
@WeDrawTheLines
. On
#WreathsAcrossAmerica
day. It's seems to us fair questions to ask.
@pedrotoledo
@sarasadhwani
@LadyTrenaTurner
0
1
8
@Peoples_Pundit
Yeah we think if our model had another 96 hours it would have gone Lean. We build our model to not knee jerk react to anything, but the trend is certainly good for Laxalt from our models POV.
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We are among them. We thought it was an outlier for sure.
@RobertCahaly
/
@trafalgar_group
that's why you are a top 5 rated poll here at E.R. We were wrong to doubt. Mea Culpa.
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2
23
CA Redistricting Watch -
@WeDrawTheLines
failed California today when they failed to meet their deadline. It's not the timetable that was the problem. It was their complete lack of self discipline & a process to resolve disagreements in tough decisions.
1
8
20
CA Redistricting Watch: Our resident Republican & our resident Democrat were just discussing how we have not heard from one very important demographic group in CA: Veterans. We will be looking into how lines drawn affected this group after new lines are certified.
@WeDrawTheLines
1
0
10
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) PENNSYLVANIA 17TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Jeremy Shaffer (R) now leads Chris Deluzio (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 235
Democrats: 200
#Election2022
3
5
20
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) CALIFORNIA 27TH *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
@ElectMikeGarcia
for Congress now leads
@ChristySmithCA
for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Democrats: 207
Republicans: 228
#Election2022
0
1
4
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) ILLINOIS 17TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Esther King (R) now leads Eric Sorensen (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 239
Democrats: 196
#Election2022
1
5
19
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. GOVERNOR) OREGON *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Christine Drazan (R) now leads Tina Kotek (D)/Betsy Johnson (I) for Governor in the E.R. Model.
Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 30
Democrats: 20
#Election2022
1
3
20
Good Morning:
The House race still stands at 219 for
@GOP
.
5 races remain to be called:
CO-3 which is heading for a recount. (Tilt R)
CA-13 which remains close but after last night Stanislaus dump now (Tilt R)
CA-22 close (Tilt R)
ME-2 RCV (Likely D)
AK-AL RCV (Likely D)
4
5
17
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) NEVADA 1ST DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
Mark Robertson (R) now leads Dina Titus (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 241
Democrats: 194
#Election2022
1
5
17
ELECTION CALL: With CA-3 being called.
@GOP
has won 218 seats and have flipped the House from the Dems.
ER Scores It: 218 for GOP - 207 for the Dems, with 10 seats left to call. ER model believes in a 220-222 range for the majority. But more seats are possible.
#Election2022
1
6
16
Our View: We agree. We are going to wait till the end of the election, but should
@FandMPoll
&
@FandMCollege
lay yet another fat egg in polling, (which we expect they will) they will become pollster
#2
banned from our model.
Enough is enough....
F&M Shapiro +22 poll today will probably end up being the worst of the cycle
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0
1
14
We don't know what this omen means... but we know it means something.
1
4
15
Here are the nominations for Episode 2 of the Election Recon
#ReactionMonday
series. Vote to see us react to a video from one of the following:
Josh - Big Data Poll
Jeff - Red Eagle Politics
Alyssa - CBS News
Lauren - PBS News
Big Data Poll
562
Red Eagle Politics
168
CBS News
43
PBS News
39
0
7
12
OUR TAKE: In a race this close any who says RFK Jr. dropping out & endorsing Trump isn’t at least a modest boost (if not a significant boost) to Trump is either delusional, ignorant or being willfully dishonest.
Make no mistake - if true - it’s a major win for Trump.
0
2
15
CA Redistricting Watch: It appears
@WeDrawTheLines
it's nearing the finish line & on-schedule. We've been concerned they would miss the self-imposed 12/20 deadline. We may have been wrong. Good luck commission we are rooting for you.
@sarasadhwani
@pedrotoledo
@LadyTrenaTurner
1
3
15
@Peoples_Pundit
The
@GOP
is often a half decade behind election innovations, strategy, tactics, and execution.
0
3
15
Good Morning:
A REAL Update on the House since MSM can't seem to be competent:
Current Real Score: 219 for
@GOP
& 210 for
@TheDemocrats
.
Only 6 actual races left:
CA13, CA22, CA47, AKAL, ME2, CO3.
Dems lead in 4 & GOP in 2.
Majority range = 220-222.
#Election2022
1
2
12
RCP projections also move to the right. RCP now has 54 Republican Seats for the Senate as New Hampshire goes red for RCP.
DDHQ, 538, RCP & ER = All projecting a Republican Controlled Senate. Where as 96 hours ago only RCP & ER had GOP up in the Senate.
GOP has the momentum.
0
4
13
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) NEW HAMPSHIRE *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Republican -> To Tilt Democrat
.
Maggie Hassan (D) now leads Don Bolduc (R) for Senate in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 52
Democrats: 47
Runoff: 1 (GA)
#Election2022
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3
13
Two of these are not like the others.
On Election Day one-of-two things will happen:
1. Economist/YouGov & Politico/Morning Consult are going to look like like heroes.
Or
2. Economist/YouGov & Politico/Morning Consult are going to look like zeros.
You decide.
0
3
11
@tencor_7144
We were honestly skeptical of GOP over sample this entire year in polling, but the EV actually make us have more confidence in our GOP projections for Nevada this year, including NV-1 which we flipped today. But it's still going to be pretty tight across the state.
0
0
12
Again
@MorningConsult
&
@politico
are on their way to take a significant L with their absolutely atrocious polling this cycle. They honestly should be embarrassed at this point.
Even our resident Democrat agrees it's "really troubling."
2
2
13
RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. HOUSE) CALIFORNIA 13TH DISTRICT *FLIP ALERT*
From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.
John Duarte (R) now leads Adam Gray (D) for Congress in the E.R. Model.
Election Recon Scoreboard:
Republicans: 232
Democrats: 203
#Election2022
2
4
12
@pilotshive
@Peoples_Pundit
Yes - If the voting behavior holds like 2020. Then yes that would be correct. But we always say here, better to have votes in the bank then hoping they show up on ED. That being said, large turnout of ED is most probably horrifying news for Democrats.
1
1
12
OUR TAKE: There is no objective analysis that could come up with this result. We are not at all saying VP Harris wont win, we are just saying this 13-Key tracker is subjective nonsense. We simply believe the Keeper of the Keys
@AllanLichtman
is blinded by his own partisan bias.
I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key.
460
753
3K
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12
We have said this here since the beginning. There was no way Kemp was going to out preform Walker by 8-12 Points. If Kemp defeats Abrams by 5-10 Points or more (which we think is highly likely) Walker will not be so far behind as to lose this race, in this divided state.
"Walker’s probably going to win Georgia"
new optimism from Rs about
#GASEN
...
Warnock's been up with big ad buys and his numbers ain't moving.
Despite all his mishaps -- Walker could very well be pulled over finish line by ticket-driver Brian Kemp.
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182
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3
11
GOP win in the OR5 moves them closer to 218.
As of this am - with the Democrats having won the Senate all 👀 are now on the house. Were we have it 214-205 for GOP. 16 seats left to call, of which 10 of them are in California.
Where the house will ultimately will be decided.
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OUR TAKE: The VP pick is not that meaningful and hasn’t been for decades. We do not agree with this take. This election will ultimate about Trump and Harris.
If Harris picks Shapiro…we’re in for a really tough election.
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CA Redistricting Watch: The one thing that is clear. All of California loves
@WeDrawTheLines
Katy!
#signkatynow
Hollywood!
@jimmyfallon
!.. anyone! Pay attention!
@LadyTrenaTurner
@patricia_sinay
@pedrotoledo
@dearisra
@PassionCzar
@dtracerx
@Lakutagawa
@pedrotoledo
@sarasadhwani
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Wait what? Is this satire? Is this serious?
We have highlighted, at the national level, the only polls in which could conceivably be called GOP aligned.
We are not trying to troll
@SimonWDC
here, we just honestly don't see what he is seeing. 🤷♀️ 🤷♂️
(1/2)
We need to start talking about the flood of GOP-aligned polls in the poll averages.
In national polling there are 5-6 GOP polls for every Dem aligned poll.
In PA 3 of 5 public polls we have from Oct are from GOP aligned firms.
Become too much of a thing to ignore.
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Some folks need more ability to read into sarcasm.... 🤦♀️ 🤦♂️
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@KevinMendezGom1
@BigDataPoll
@Peoples_Pundit
We still have Evers up by a slim margin, but we admit that is being driven by low confidence MSM polling. We suspect as LV screens go in and more data rolls in, WI will likely flip in our model as well.
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@sarasadhwani
@DCLogan
We have no objections to accessibility side of CA's laws. It's the slow counting of ballots = the problem. It's not the EV, LV or ED laws that need to change - we need to empower Reg. of Voters to be able to count the 80-90% of the ballots they have within 24-36 hours. Mo' Speed.
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Election Recon Weekly Update for October 5th, 2024 - (POTUS).
Race Rating: Toss Up/Tilt Trump. (54% Chance-to-Win)
Flips this week:
PA: Tilt Harris -> Tilt Trump
Current Election Recon Score Board:
Trump 291 - Harris 247
See more at:
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🤣
@FandMPoll
really???
Pennsylvania Governor:
Shapiro (D) 58% (+22)
Mastriano (R) 36%
.
@FandMPoll
, 384 LV, 10/14-23
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But let's be clear here for the folks....
Vast majority, like 80-90% of polling error and misses in the last decade have come as an under representation of GOP and over representation of DEMs in final results....
We are just calling balls & strikes fair here...
(2/2)
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CA Redistricting Watch:
@WeDrawTheLines
fails to resolve Modesto & Tracy problems in Congressional maps. There seems no consensus on any fix at this hour. They are moving to public comment & we are very concerned that they won't meet their deadline Monday.
@pedrotoledo
@dearisra
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There is no Red Tsunami tonight. That we know for sure. Going to be really tight for the Senate.
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Our View: Love the maps or hate em... CA is one of the few states with a citizen commission to have actually got the job done... and done on time. We celebrate that here.
@pedrotoledo
@sarasadhwani
@LadyTrenaTurner
@Lakutagawa
@patricia_sinay
@YeeRuss
@dearisra
@WeDrawTheLines
Photos from December 27, 2021, when the 2020
#California
Citizens
#Redistricting
Commission Delivered Maps to California Secretary of State.
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Our chief analyst says, "either they know something no one else is seeing, or they are just putting their thumb on the scale for narrative."
He adds, "this is why we need
@RealClearNews
polling accountability project sooner-than-later."
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Our View: It's possible. But not likely. In our collective opinions, the best the blue team can hope for at this point is a near neutral electorate against the red team.
Even in that environment - we project a modest GOP night in the house and still a dog fight for the Senate.
Political analysts and commentators were burned by GOP overperformance in 2020.
They should start getting worried about getting burned by the ongoing Dem overperformance in 2022.
We saw it in KS and the 5 House specials, and we are seeing it in the early vote.
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