East Asia Stocks
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Uncovering compounders and world-class businesses in Japan, China, and Korea. Link below.
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Latest post is out: Canon's Lithography Ambitions
This post explores Canon's transformation from a value trap to a dark horse contender in semicap.
TLDR; it's time to put Canon on your watchlist.
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Twitter has 5,000 employees and their output is roughly similar to a 15-person startup in Shenzhen.
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The latest Howard Marks letter in plain English
1/ First, economists are dumb-fucks. Avoid economists like the plague. Don’t have a view on macro? It’s ok. Agnosticism is wiser than self-delusion. But I’m still going to talk about inflation, etc. anyways here.
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Last night on Twitter I saw an attempted assassination of a famous growth investor by a boomer value investor. And it went something like this:
1/ Dear ______, I see that your performance is actually pretty good. But guess what? It’s pure luck.
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Inventing a new word: "reverse key-man risk". Meaning if the CEO is hit by a bus tomorrow, share price would go up.
Which companies come to mind? I'll start - Twitter.
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Debunking misinformation on Roblox – a thread
Given the deluge of sensational journalism on $RBLX these days, I felt the need to post this.
It’s become increasingly difficult to watch the spread of malicious information by people who know little about the platform 1/
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1/ Surprised that there’s been so few mentions on Twitter of the after-school tutoring crackdown in South Korea. What’s happening in China is in fact a total replay of what we’ve seen 10 years ago in Korea. Both countries have a lot in common,
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BYD replaces Volkswagen as official partner at Euro 2024 (in Germany lol).
Of the 13 official sponsors, 5 are Chinese companies (BYD, Hisense, Vivo, Aliexpress, Alipay)
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(Short thread on China’s after-school education sector)
1/ Given the recent debacle in this sector ( $EDU $GOTU $TAL), the “China risk” narrative is in full swing again. Needless to say, regulatory risk is real in China and there is no denying that.
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$TCEHY
1/ All this talk and fear about gaming regulation in China, but come on, do we really even need gaming to make Tencent’s math work these days? A quick back of the envelope. Tencent is currently $550B mkt cap.
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A closer look at Tencent’s recent “social aid” contributions (without getting lost in translation) $TCENY
1/ First, note that the announcement was made on Tencent’s Official Account on Weixin. It is nowhere to be found on the company’s IR page when I last checked (interesting).
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Probably the biggest negative headline to hit $BABA this year
.
@profgalloway
predicts that Alibaba’s stock is going to have a great year: “I think it’s at $300 by the end of the year.”
Listen to Pivot:
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The latest Howard Marks letter in plain English (disclaimer: this is pure parody, not intended to offend) 0/n
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8/ And I already said we don’t know jack shit about inflation. So we don’t know Jack shit about anything. If you want, you can prepare for inflation. But not that any of us knows anything about inflation. So good luck preparing for nothing. End/
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Here's our deep-dive on Roblox! $RBLX
Co-authored with
@DMTCapital
, a developer and player on the platform since 2017. As part of our due-diligence, we've drawn on plenty of sources from the developer community as well as from former Roblox employees.
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12/ Ask what you own, and what the fuck it is that these businesses really do at the end of the day. Maybe, just maybe, social value matters. End/
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Crowd reactions to:
Anon fintwitter holding $BABA: Have fun bagholding u dumb
@ss
f*cking moron. China is uninvestable. You should be fired.
Munger holding $BABA: Such conviction. Amazing he's almost 100. The man is unstoppable. He talks to Li Lu he must know something.
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7/ I’ll say it again - nobody knows jack shit about inflation. So what should investors do? Remain fully invested, until you’re on the brink of shitting your pants. Asset prices don’t seem irrational relative to rates. But where will rates go? Depends on inflation.
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We published a thought piece on China VIE risk.
Governance: The bottom-line on VIE
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Super harshly worded critique of ESG by Prof Damodaran
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Is there a way to just go long CCP instead of Chinese companies? Better yet if someone can just issue me some Xi tokens.
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2020: DeFi
2021: NFTs
2022: Blockchain gaming
Axie Infinity is not an isolated phenomenon. If it's not clear by now, gamers strongly desire true ownership of in-game assets. Over the next several years, gaming industry will see a transition from pay-to-win to play-to-earn.
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2/ So inflation - the only thing we know is that nobody knows jack shit about inflation. Inflation is mysterious. So many got rich off Robinhood in 2020. Ok back to inflation. There are reasons to believe inflation can go higher, or it can be transitory. But impossible to know.
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Tip: If you're going to listen to white dudes on Twitter about China, listen to the ones that don't write their names in Chinese. Seriously, works about 80% of the time.
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Only way China will ever have a future is if they let $BABA get back to my cost base * (1+ cost of equity * holding period/365)
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5/ Why? Fed more afraid of slowdown. But I think we should fear inflation. Why? If my boomer memory serves me correctly, higher interest rates will kill us all! I don’t know what’s going on but there’s something deeply wrong with everything, with the Fed, debt, everything.
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Some quick thoughts on $SE
Even though the stock is down 35% from ATH, I feel like we are now looking at a very different opportunity compared to earlier in the year. Potential narrative deterioration + paper-handing of growth investors from monetary tightening
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3/ I wrote a bunch of memo in 2016 to tell people nobody knows jack shit about anything. WSJ and the talking heads are too confident to try to explain everything about the market. They think stonk prices are declining because of fear of inflation…
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4/ But bond market doesn’t agree. And also gold (inflation hedge) fell too. These talking heads and forecasters, you guys are as useful as a broken condom! The Fed isn’t scared of inflation. Economy doing well now but Fed continues to keep rates near zero and buy bonds like mad.
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Just read a recent interview with a former Coupang employee (Director level). $CPNG. Wow, really tore up the culture there. I usually let these things go, but this is not the first time I've heard this with this company
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We have published our deep-dive on Rakuten!
Deep-dive: Rakuten (4755 TYO, $RKUNY)
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Be highly skeptical of any information you see, from anybody. My biggest learning so far is that the war propaganda machine is truly something else. I don't get how so many outsiders can have a view, when source information cannot even be relied upon.
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4. Call me a commie. But I’m going to say that the CCP is way ahead of every other regulator in the world. The systemic nature of tech giants will only become clearer over time, and when under-regulated, these are ticking time bombs for reasons such as national safety.
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We have published our company deep-dive on HDFC Bank! HDFC Bank is India's largest private bank $HDB
Deep-dive: HDFC Bank
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14/ So as you can see, these are definitely constructive criticisms – you’re very welcome. And I’m definitely not being a douchebag here. Mike Burry and I just want to make you a better investor in the end. //
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$NTDOY looks interesting here. So time for a 🧵.
EV is 4.5T yen = $41B (<10x last year’s net income, 14x mgmt’s guidance for this year’s.) Also Interesting it’s less than $RBLX at $48B
Let’s break down the company into two parts: the core business (console) and the rest. 1/n
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Ok, here it is. My "bearish Coupang" piece. $CPNG
Not saying you should short it, but I don’t see how it works out on the long side.
See link in bio.
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The Most Important Thing (sue me Howard Marks)
1/ Just calling it like it is: you’re either a CCP optimist, or you are not. And that’s the single most important thing right now in this market separating those who will fold in the sell-off and those who will stick around.
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How to lose your fintwit followers, FAST:
1. Say anything good about China
2. Say anything bad about Buffett (apparently Munger is ok now)
3. Become an overnight epidemiologist
4. Mention "ESG"
5. Overuse sports analogies
6. Shill your shitcoins
7. Post your dinner photos
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6/ We’re not going to be okay forever. Smell something fishy. Fed is too active. Alan Greenspan is a control freak. Want Fed to do less. Intervene in interest rate only when necessary. Back to inflation - anything anyone says about inflation is guesswork.
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3. Some of the people saying China is uninvestable as an asset class now probably have half their portfolio in SaaS or fintech companies at 50x revenue and see literally zero risk of permanent impairment on that. Narratives often leads to the under/over-pricing of risk.
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Latest post is out: Digital Garage Inc (4819)
One of the best ways to play Japan’s cashless payments growth. Helps merchants (both offline/online) accept cashless payment methods, including credit cards, mobile, e-money, etc. Indispensable part of the payments ecosystem.
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6/ Fourth, none of your companies are paying a dividend. Which means your portfolio is likely worth zero, according to this cutting-edge and authoritative technique known as the Dividend Discount Model. Incidentally, since management fee can only be covered with dividend payments
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Dropping a reality check on $DIDI and China tech. Call me a Munger acolyte or even put me on your hit list for posting this on the July 4th weekend. But I'm not on Twitter to kiss babies.
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3/ According to one source Korean parents used to spend 15-30% of budget on private education, and the total amount spent on private education was 50% more than the public education budget at one point. The situation got so bad that they had police officers patrolling the streets
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6/ “Runaway tuition fees and mounting student stress has prompted the South Korean government to shift toward a more “western-style” education system that includes shortening hagwon hours and changing university entrance policies”
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7/ you’re effectively stealing from your investors too. Fifth, according to book value, most of your companies are trading at 8.4x the value of some office supplies and chairs. Without a doubt you’re sitting on a very expensive portfolio.
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Interesting chart. Ever since iOS 14.5 Apple has been growing search ads revenue like mad. Look at the share they've taken from Facebook on iOS in just the last 6 months. Crackdown on ads while simultaneously growing their own. Tim Cook you evil genius. $AAPL $FB
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4/ With this, I’m equipped to roast every single one of you motherfucking growth investors out there by calculating all the P/E ratios in the universe. So watch your backs. Third, your portfolio has negative profit and negative cash flow,
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3/ In a world where the avg P/E is 25x, your P/E is like 756385 which by default makes you insane in the membrane and a terrible investor. Second, I learned how to use this amazing piece of machinery (that rhymes with my last name) called Bloomberg.
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Looks like there was another value-investor gathering (read: auto-fellacio) somewhere in the world.
Some thoughts.
Fortunate to have spent the better part of the week with 22 of the most thoughtful and talented investors around. They are even better people. We break down several companies, eat and drink too well, and simply enjoy each other's company. This was our 9th annual gathering. 1/
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5/ which obviously means you’re also a negative portfolio manager, a negative human being and a negative soul. How dare you commit the cardinal sin of profit reinvestment. That’s free money which you could’ve returned to your investors.
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Thoughts on $COIN...a 🧵
1/ With enough good summary out there already on Q2 earnings, I’ll focus on sharing some high-level views. I think $COIN might be one of those stocks, which by the time it becomes obvious to all, it might be a bit too late.
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6/ Ok stop. That’s it, forget the rest of Tencent’s business. Write off the world’s largest gaming business as a zero. And a few others too.
Now what were you saying about the gaming regulations?
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4/ at night to catch illegal night class operators. Operators and teachers were even thrown into jail for violations (imagine if China did this). It gets even more interesting when we do a side-by-side comparison of Western media narratives:
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Gotta be kidding me. Can't even make this shit up. Is this what Twitter calls its "AI"?? They're spending close to $1 billion on R&D for this?? lmao 😂😂
$TWTR
(credit to
@Gabe_Bernarde
for pointing this out)
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2/ including university entrance system and a hyper-competitive and education obsessed culture. Ever heard of the company Megastudy? Go check out the stock price. Especially if you’re tempted to go bottom-fishing in some of the China education names today
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7/ Wow. Can I get a double standard burger, with fries and coke?
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No one knows the full story here, but without a doubt this was a complete utter public humiliation for Hu. I’ve watched this closely and here’s what I saw. Feel free to pushback if you see it differently.
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9/ An entire nation of parents and children slaving away for a good 10 years of their lives for zero net social gain, while after-school program founders, backed by foreign capital, became billionaires while calling themselves the champions of the country's education industry
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Man, always impressed by Pony Ma who attends every earnings call to personally deliver us the message that “our company grew sales by 13%” and then just vanishes. Legend.
A few observations...
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Feeling the need to push back here, not because I’m a screaming $TSLA bull or anything, but because this is a pseudo-analysis which yields zero (or even negative) insight. A good example of why bears sound smart but don’t make money.
Who would believe that Tesla is now "worth" more than two Berkshire Hathaways? Today’s 8.5% gain added $106 billion in market cap, 2.3x Tesla’s annual REVENUE in a single day. Mr. Market now values the car company at $1.36 trillion, 29.5 times annual trailing revenues. Insane. 1/
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10/ What were the prevailing narratives on Wall Street at the time? Chinese education demand is inelastic. “Infinite” pricing power. Opportunity in consolidation. Confucian country values education above all else, yada yada. 🤮🤮 The dissonance could not have been greater.
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11/ During this time, many great things were invented on earth such as electricity, medicine, conditioned air, etc., but I’m convinced that we’ve now reached the end of human progress. Retirees will be the most productive members of our society going forward, and
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Random musing: a single Coronavirus is 100 nanometers in diameter. TSMC is building a 1 nanometer fab. Insane.
Understanding physics at this kind of level – there’s got to be uses outside semi? What about life sciences and gene editing and all that stuff? Any experts?
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These are people who couldn’t be farther from the truth. Either they are truly misinformed, or are looking to generate publicity by any means possible.
As an investor and analyst who has studied Roblox extensively, I can tell you the following: 3/
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9/ I’ve also made public my fund’s factsheet for the first time on Twitter. Please note that it’s NOT to be used for wiping your rear, as kindly pointed out by the gentleman below. The purpose of the factsheet is to actually showcase Mr. Buffett’s… – I meant MY – track record.
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While Afghanistan is generating all the headline right now, one can guess as to what the Chinese leadership is focused on. What are the odds now that the American public would be willing to spend the next trillion dollars fighting in Taiwan?
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Hey guys I did some research on $UPST. Great company, very bullish. Love to hear your thoughts.
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Ok I rarely do this but…
A weekend thread (and a warning!) on the yen
I’m bearish yen and think it could be headed much lower. 180? 200? All possible.
(1/n)
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Nobody who has been intimately involved with Roblox that I’ve spoken to - players, developers, former employees – have ever accused Roblox of misconduct.
In fact, it’s always the opposite – they’ve praised the seriousness with which Roblox has approached civility & safety. 4/
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10/ Also, you’re full of lies. For example, you’re totally wrong about the market cap to GDP being “two to four times current levels” in the late 1800s. Let me tell you that I’ve lived throughout the 1800’s and it certainly never exceeded 50% of GDP.
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I must say, the one thing I do love about the crypto community is the relentless optimism, spirit, sense of humor, the memes through ups and downs, and guys like this enjoyoooor.
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Do you really think Wall Street/institutions are simply walking away from the 2nd largest economy in the world, in perpetuity, even as innovation engine continues to chug along? I mean, possible, but that would be some newfound discipline for Homosapiens that I hadn’t known about
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5/ What we’re hearing today about China falls along the lines of government looking to assert control, decimating private businesses and capitalists. What about Korea ten years ago? I quote from a major Canadian publication at the time:
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I am calling this total BS. I challenge any of you to download Roblox and to try and find right away “a lot of inappropriate and surprising content”. The extent of misinformation is really sad, and it seems people are willing to make up anything to get publicity these days. 19/
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From ARK Invest "Big Ideas 2022". They think "Autonomous Platform Provider" (robo-taxi) will have ~$11.7T EV in 2026. They're using 19x earnings, so that's >$600B in earnings. That's more than six Apples. In less than five years from now.
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2/ The “wood” is already burning, and allow me explain why it will become a forest fire soon. A few groundbreaking observations. First, if you divide any number by 0 or close to zero, you get an infinitely large result. Hold on, don’t clap yet.
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Players actually routinely complain about Roblox’s censorship regime, because it censors a lot of benign words!
The platform has always erred on the side of overprotection. I was in the game with a friend of mine and I couldn’t even type his name! That’s how strict this is. 7/
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Hey guys seems like we've found a solution to the whole China crackdown thing.
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8/ You also seem to prefer when your companies are issuing shares and growing. Well, I like mine when they’re buying back and shrinking. Better yet if the company can’t even raise shares in the first place. I mean, who wouldn’t want to be the last remaining shareholder of Sears?
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In our latest deep dive, we wrote about Komatsu.
Investors can own one of the great global mining and construction equipment franchises for just 9x P/E and a 4.3% dividend yield, with exposure to the resources upcycle. (1/2)
$KMTUY
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6/ I also saw my aunt burn through her paycheck to send her son through after-school programs, just so that he’s not disadvantaged relative to the other kids. Ironically, regular schools became a side show while the after-school programs became the main battleground for the kids.
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5/ He’s done nothing since the age of 6, other than study. I was saddened seeing just how messed he became as a byproduct of the system. Being wired to do nothing other than mindless studying, so much so that he had trouble picking out his own clothes in the morning even at 18.
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Latest post is out: Justsystems (4686)
It’s a well-managed and highly profitable software company. But what makes it most unique is that Keyence owns 44% of it, having acquired its stake in 2009
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12/ Anyhow, big tech will have someone else’s hands in their pockets for a long time, whether that’s non-stop fines in the EU or social contributions with Chinese characteristics. I believe this is reality, and a new normal irrespective of geography. end/
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Ok Twitter's pandemic experts, tell us about this B.1.1.529. We need to front run those researchers. Fast.
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Former COO of Lazada Malaysia is very positive on Shopee (and negative on Lazada) $SE
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$NFLX thesis
2020: Content powerhouse, disruptive flywheel
2022: Reduce password sharing.
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@ebitdaddy90
But how can you say I'm not well diversified with $PTON and $DASH. One makes you lose weight, the other does the opposite.
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And for those bad ones that exist, Roblox is very quick to delete them (a few hours to a day usually).
The fact is that this is a problem not with Roblox, but with the world wide web. There is no easier place to find adult content than through Google search! 11/
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