The official league phase table is a bit misleading: @fctwente with 7 points has a much higher probability (62%) to finish in the Top 24 than @Besiktas with 9 points (35%) as they play against each other in the Netherlands.

Seven teams are already eliminated, while two clubs (@tsghoffenheim & @MaccabiTLVFC) have less than 3% chance to avoid this fate. @IFElfsborg1904, the 5th weakest team, can reach Top24 with a probability of 85% even though it had the strongest opponents as calculated before MD1

Our collaboration with @Statathlon has resulted in a new article:

Are some matches tilting the odds? A Closer Look at matchday 7 and final-round dynamics in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League.

A draw in Stuttgart - PSG does have a considerable impact on the probabilities for other teams to qualify.

@SLBenfica @PSG_inside @SportingCP @ManCity @ClubBrugge @gnkdinamo This figure shows how many points are needed to survive the league stage, for each of the teams that are still in the running. The colors in the plot below show, for each number of points the team can still obtain, its corresponding probability of progressing.

@SLBenfica @PSG_inside @SportingCP @ManCity @ClubBrugge @gnkdinamo On the other hand, @psg, @SLBenfica and @SportingCP still have more than 50% chance to proceed with only 10 points.

@losclive found its prospects of reaching the top 8 improving, even after suffering a defeat. This surprising outcome is due to a stroke of luck: all of Lille's closest competitors — @BVB, @SB29, @FCBayern, @AVFCOfficial, and @bayer04_en - also suffered defeats in their matches.

The Sports Analytics Group of the Dep. of Statistics of Athens University of Economics & Business (@AUEB) announces the 9th Sports Analytics Workshop, which will be hosted live at AUEB, Athens (Greece) on the evenings of 5th and 6th May 2025. More info:

@AUEB Sports Analytics Workshop & Conference 2025 (SAW 2025), dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sports meet, is scheduled as a live event on Monday 5 & Tuesday 6 of May 2025 in Athens. For all information, see

Join us for a 2-day event that delves into the world of finance and analytics in football, with fascinating insight from academia and sport all based at Boundary Park (Oldham Athletic). Tickets are now available to purchase at

The most important @uefa @EuropaLeague matches on matchday 7? @PAOK_FC - @slaviaofficial, @tsghoffenheim - @SpursOfficial, and @ManUtd - @RangersFC. High stakes for all opponents in these games.

Keep an eye on @LFC - @losclive, as this one is prone to collusion: if Liverpool and Lille draw, Liverpool secures a top 8 spot, while Lille is guaranteed to survive the league stage. Note: Lille (currently 8th) is also still contending for top 8. #collusion #ChampionsLeague

Want to know more? Check out our latest article: The Champions League returns: what’s at stake on matchday 7? via @LinkedIn

Even if @gnkdinamo, @FCShakhtar or @ACSparta_CZ obtain 10 points, their chance of qualifying is still less than 50%. All other teams have >50% chance to progress with 10 points. @SLBenfica even has 90% chance of surviving the league stage with 10 points.