Dynasty Zoltan (Mike Garai)
@DynastyZoltanFF
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Avoid the treadmill of mediocrity Access all the tools you need at Dynasty Zoltan Podcast on Spotify, Apple, etc.
Joined December 2020
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When I say avoid the treadmill of mediocrity, this is what I mean.
5 weeks in, every single one of your teams should either by gunning for a bye, or tanking for Caleb.
Points For rank is the best way (after Dynasty Diagnostics) to judge your team.
Get out of the middle!
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I’m sorry but it’s so clearly Wade
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Bears: here’s a highlight of the Eagles offensive line
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28% of Jalen Hurts' fantasy points this season have come from the Tush Push.
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I think Sleeper changing Travis Kelce's picture to Taylor Swift is a very ESPN move and shows a lack of understanding of their audience
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A lot of people that are worried about Caleb Williams’ ego/confidence sure do love Joe Burrow
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🧵🚨THREAD 🚨🧵
📹Scouting the 2023 Class: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Basics:
- 6'0, 170lbs
- 21.3 years old @ draft time
- 4* recruit - 1st 2 years at Pitt, 3rd at USC
- 2021 Biletnikoff Winner (Best WR)
- Projected NFL draft: Mid 1st
- Projected dynasty drafts: WR2, 1.05-8
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🧵🚨THREAD 🚨🧵
📹Scouting the 2023 Class: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Basics:
- 6'4, 201 lbs
- 21.6 years old @ draft time
- ~4.4 40
- 96th %ile YPR
- Boom/bust prospect
- YAC God
- Projected NFL draft: Early/Mid 1st
- Projected dynasty drafts: WR2-3, 1.05-8
#ZoltanScouting
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Glad you asked!
JJ McCarthy's attempts by quarter:
1st: 183
2nd: 224
3rd: 156
4th: 91
Only 38% of attempts in the 2nd half, 14% in the 4th quarter.
Oh, so they must not have trusted him to throw in the fourth, that's why!
- Career record: 28-1
- Halftime deficits: Two (15
Nobody has explained why jj McCarthy is ranked so high he barely threw the ball at Michigan lol
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Can’t wait to draft Kyren Williams in the 2nd round redraft and 4th round dynasty only for him to sneeze on Mcvay in August, leading to Zach Evans RB1 szn
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Remember when DJ Moore was going to magically transform Justin Fields into an MVP candidate?
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Looking like no Gainwell for the Eagles on Thursday, and Nick Siriani did say he wants to get D’Andre Swift more involved!
Boston Scott is a must-start player.
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Angles don't exist for Devon Achane
CJ2K 2.0
Might just be the dynasty RB2
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Teams on bye week:
Week 5: 4 teams
Week 6: 2
Week 7: 6
Week 8: 0, for some reason?
Weeks 9, 10, 11: 4 teams
Week 12: 0 again?
Week 13: 6
Week 14: 2
Does anyone know why the NFL did this?
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And just like that, Trey Mcbride is your redraft TE3 rest of season
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Alexander Mattison Deep Dive
My initial instinct was to sell high on AM after the Dalvin Cook release, but I felt this situation deserved more investigation.
See thread below for the most thread you'll find, with stats, film, 2022 projection, and a dynasty value breakdown.
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Mike Williams to KC/BUF would be awesome!
Start him W1: 10 targets for 2/22/0.... but he had 10 targets!
So W2, start him again: Goose egg
Makes him an easy sit for W3: 6/135/2
So W4, back in the lineup, he's gonna explode (his ACL in the first quarter).
Can't wait!
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Kyren Williams in 2 games vs. the 32nd run defense Arizona Cardinals:
36 carries
301 yards (8.4 YPA)
6.0 yards after contact / attempt
7 10+ yard runs (19% rate)
In 6 games vs. the rest of NFL:
98 carries
386 yards (3.9 YPA)
2.7 YCO/A
5 10+ yard runs (5% rate)
Just saying..
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Anyone who thinks Travis Kelce is better than Rob Gronkowski was, never watched Rob Gronkowski
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The best innovation for slow drafts would be a chess-like timer.
1 hour timers are too short. People have lives.
8 hour timers are too long, if someone’s consistently taking most of it.
Give everyone 30 hours total for all their picks. They can use as needed!
@SleeperHQ
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No Amon-Ra St. Brown
No Jahmyr Gibbs
Setting up a smash spot for Jameson Williams and David Montgomery
Meaning Khalid Raymond will go off and Craig Reynolds will vulture two touchdowns
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Does PFF actually grade wide receivers, or do they just convert their yards per route run to a grade?
A 0.875 r-squared value is crazy high.
WRs with 30+ targets in 2023 below:
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My favorite stat from week 1:
Puka Nacua became the third WR ever to record 10+ receptions and 100+ yards in their first career game.
The other two: Anquan Boldin and Keke Coutee
If that doesn't say wide range of outcomes, I don't know what does.
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Calvin Ridley:
26 targets
13 receptions
173 yards
1 touchdown
35.3 points
Christian Kirk:
23 targets
16 receptions
173 yards
1 TD
39.2 points
Maybe we anointed Ridley too early?
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All of a sudden, Breece Hall has 74 receptions, 1st among RBs
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If Mark Andrews is out (he is) you should start Isaiah Likely over every TE other than:
Hockenson
Pitts
Kittle
Freiermuth
Goedert
That’s it
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Also notable: D'Andre Swift has been tackled within the 3 yard line on 10 runs
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Marvin Mims, Jayden Reed, Tyjae Spears, Luke Musgrave and Roschon Johnson once again proving that late 2nd round picks are VERY valuable and should not be thrown around like candy on Halloween
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Sleeper making their own calculator makes a ton of sense (I don’t blame them!) but it’s going to be AWFUL for trade negotiating
I’m dreading this
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🧵🚨THREAD 🚨🧵
📹Scouting the 2023 Class: Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse
Before getting to the video breakdown, some basics:
- 5'10, 210 lbs
- 21.5 years old @ draft time
- 3* recruit
- Projected NFL Draft: 2nd-3rd Round
- Projected dynasty drafts: RB2, 1.07-12
#ZoltanScouting
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Just watched 10 games of Brooks, Worthy and Mitchell back to back to back.
My main takeaway is that Ewers is awful.
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Top 3 2024 Rookie WRs:
Rookie Year Age:
Malik Nabers - 21.1 ✅
Marvin Harrison Jr. - 22.1
Rome Odunze - 22.2
Career-best YPRR:
Nabers - 3.64✅
MHJ - 3.44
Odunze - 2.93
Career-best RYPTPA:
Nabers - 3.82✅
MHJ - 3.08
Odunze - 2.85
Career-best Dominator Rating:
Nabers - 34%
MHJ
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🧵🚨THREAD 🚨🧵
📹Scouting the 2023 Class: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Basics:
- 6'0, 196lbs
- 21.1 years old @ draft time
- 5* recruit (WR5 in class)
- Projected NFL draft: Mid/late 1st
- Projected dynasty drafts: WR1, 1.04-6
#ZoltanScouting
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Brian Thomas Jr. gains more from his 40 than Xavier Worthy does from his.
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Derrick Henry has more career passing touchdowns than receiving touchdowns
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If you’re looking for the next Justin Jefferson, start acquiring 2024 1sts now for Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Nico Collins:
50/800/5
24.6% Target Rate (24th)
0.54 Points per RR (12th)
2.56 YPRR (7th)
7.0 YAC/Rec (6th)
15 MTF (3rd)
Tank Dell:
47/709/7
25.3% Target Rate (23rd)
0.56 Points per RR (11th)
2.24 YPRR (16th)
3.1 YAC/Rec (67th)
3 MTF (t-47th)
Nico is 224 days older
Discuss...
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Big Winners: Zamir White, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle
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@jasrifootball
@nyjetsfansonly
@NYJets_Media
@nyjets
@loyalnyjetfans
So your evidence that they’re a destination is that they almost (but didn’t) sign one WR; they signed 2 mediocre (at best) WRs, and might be signing a RB by offering him more money than other teams? Cmon man
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🧵🚨THREAD 🚨🧵
📹Scouting the 2023 Class: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
Before getting to the video breakdown, some basics:
- 5'11, 200 lbs
- 21.1 years old @ draft time
- 4* recruit
- Projected NFL draft: top half of 2nd
- Projected dynasty drafts: RB2, 1.03-5
#ZoltanScouting
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Major injuries to top 24 players in ADP
QB: 0
RB: 4
WR: 1
TE: 0
Don't build around running backs
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Javon Baker is better than Ja’Lynn Polk
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Remember twelve months ago when you traded a "late" 1st, then made the playoffs and lost in round 1 (I know, it was bullshit, your starting RB was injured!) and that pick became 1.08 and now it's Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze?
Don't trade future 1sts.
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Nothing more obnoxious than the “good game” concession message when the matchup isn’t over
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I’d take CJ Stroud over Justin Herbert, both in fantasy and real life. Don’t know what more we have to see.
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Final season results:
97 Teams
850-411 (67%)
73 Playoff Teams (76%)
40 Bye Week Teams (41%)
28 Points Titles (29%)
53 Semifinals
34 Finals
🏆 24 Titles
💰 3.1x return on investment
My best year yet since expanding my portfolio. Happy New Year to all!
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Kyle Pitts was a legendary prospect who had a disappointing first two seasons, leading to only 1,382 receiving yards.
8 other TEs since 2000 recorded 1,300 + receiving yards in their first two seasons
These 8 TEs have combined for 37 top 5 seasons and 12 TE1 years. They
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Just saw Garrett Wilson go for Olave, Dotson and a 23 1st. Might be time to sell high!
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Wide receivers with some dynasty value most likely to have no dynasty value in 4 months:
1) Jameson Williams
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One of the main signs I look for in WR prospects is consistency. Can defenses scheme you out? Can an elite corner shut you down?
% games with 5+ catches or 80+ yards:
Odunze: 93% 🔥
Nabers: 92%🔥
Franklin: 85%
Legette: 83%
Harrison: 67%
Coleman: 33% 🤮
Mitchell: 21%🤮
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In the first 41 games of their careers...
Kyle Pitts: 143 / 1,968 / 5
Travis Kelce: 178 / 2,172 / 13
Mark Andrews: 136 / 1,858 / 19
TJ Hockenson: 164 / 1,711 / 12
We ready to give up on Kyle Pitts based on touchdown luck or...?
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Hey
@SleeperHQ
- commissioner of over 30 leagues here, love your platform.
If possible, could you add a "permanent pin" function, or a separate place to permanently link things like league rules, future payment links, etc, so commishes don't have to repost every year?
Thanks!
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People spending a 1st on Deandre Hopkins...
Did you forget Marquise Brown is coming back?
Did you forget Hopkins is 30?
Did you forget you play dynasty?
Make it make sense.
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@rotounderworld
@FFMetrics
This is a valiant effort to get attention at the sacrifice of any logic or pride
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In a weak running back class, I'm shooting for upside.
That means receiving upside, explosive runs, and yards after contact.
Since 2018, 5 RBs have 15%+ Explosive rush rate, 3.5+ yards after contact per attempt, and 90+ receptions
Travis Etienne
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs
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WRs drafted in rounds 1-3 since 2018, college missed tackles forced rate (MTF%):
Average = 18%
Green = Hit
Yellow = Fine / TBD
Red = Bust
I know which category I'll be drafting from in 2024...
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With Melvin Gordon confirmed to re-sign with the Broncos, Javonte Williams has dropped out of my top 24 dynasty running backs. Really just a handcuff at this point, feel free to sell him to me for a future 2nd.
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People seem to be pointing to race. Wouldn’t be the first time Americans considered the white cocky guy to be a leader and the black cocky guy to have an attitude issue…
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Zero concern about Jahmyr Gibbs, and I doubt anyone really is. He looked great, the touches will come.
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Just updated my WR data model with 2024 prospects
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers come in at 3rd and 4th of all receivers since 2017
No one else cracks the top 10
That, my friends, is what we call a tier break
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Chargers give: Justin Herbert
Patriots give: Pick 3 (JJ McCarthy), Pick 34 (Adonai Mitchell), 2025 1st, the Spygate tapes, Tom Brady's anti-aging potion, 15K fans (to double the Chargers fanbase)
Who says no?
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James Cook is 3rd in the NFL in all-purpose yards this season
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This is Devon Achane’s job now, sorry 🤷🏻♂️
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Turn sound on for Nacua’s scream
I really hope no one doubts him anymore, he’s as legit as it gets. WR9 in my latest dynasty rankings.
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I've been saying Drake Maye won't be an starting-caliber NFL QB. It's time to show my work.
While he has obvious tools, Maye struggles with:
- Footwork
- Decision Making
- Accuracy / Ball Placement
- Footwork
- Off-Platform Throws
Thread of film breakdown below:
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Jaxon Smith-Njgiba comps:
Ceedee Lamb
Brandon Aiyuk
Jarvis Landry
Cooper Kupp
Keenan Allen
Amon-Ra St. Brown
What do these guys have in common?
- Height = 5'11 - 6'2
- Weight = 190 - 210
- 40 Yard Dash = 4.50 - 4.65
- Slot + Wide Capability
- YAC Weapons
- 70+ Film Grade
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All I can think about when watching Trey Mcbride is Michael Mayer’s 2024 season
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Anatomy of a
#1
Overall RB
Since 2016 (5 seasons), the RB1 has finished with at least 25 PPR FPPG. Overall, 6 running backs have hit this mark in a season since 2016 (minimum 10 games, only 2020 CMC would qualify otherwise). These RBs have a lot in common.
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Brock Bowers and the TE renaissance is about to make Ja’Tavion Sanders the steal of dynasty rookie drafts
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It got called back, but this is special, and it’s why Rhamondre Stevenson is the future of the Patriots backfield
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What the heck do we do with George Pickens, with his 19% target share and 1,100 yards?
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Treylon Burks 🧵Thread🧵
This offseason, I'll be going through all the major NFL draft prospects, focusing primarily on their college tape.
First up is most analyst's WR1, and 1QB 1.01, Arkansas WR Treylon Burks
#ZoltanScouting2022
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The people in the comments saying this isn't collusion might not have been born yesterday, but they certainly were born in 2024
I need some help yall. This trade just went through last night in a league I'm commish. Both parties just joined the league, taking over orphans. One guy joined, said he had another, and brought them in. 5 minutes after they joined, this trade goes through.
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Why would the Bears draft a WR in the first round after trading for DJ Moore and Keenan Allen?
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So this Super Bowl has been pretty boring.
You know who's not boring?
My RB1, the most elusive RB in the class, Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving
This year's answer to your Devon Achane / Jahmyr Gibbs / James Cook thirst
Full scouting report is now live.
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CJ Uzomah looks damn good coming off a torn Achilles. Buy Cam Akers.
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Just a reminder Justin Fields costs $6M this year
Former Eagles QB Marcus Mariota is signing with the Washington Commanders on a 1-year deal with a base value of $6 million and upside to $10 million, per source.
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Hope those of you who clearly didn't watch the tape realize just how fast Ladd McConkey is now.
WR4
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Tank Dell averaged 21.4 PPG in 7 games (min. 50% snaps)
That would’ve been good for WR4 last season
As a rookie!
If we’re going to hype up Nico despite Diggs, and Richardson despite his injuries / small sample, we gotta hype up Dell as a potential elite WR with top 8 upside.
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Might be smart to not draft a running back until the third round of dynasty rookie drafts this year
We might not see an NFL team draft one until the fourth round
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Puka Nacua's per game average since Cooper Kupp's return was supposed to relegate him to irrelevancy:
8.1 targets
5.2 receptions
75 yards
0.4 TD
15.4 PPG (would rank as WR16 this year and 10th best rookie WR since 2005)
17 game pace of 88/1,277/6
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NOW is actually the time to buy Tyjae Spears
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If Marv and Henderson both do return to Ohio, 2024 rookie picks are pretty f'd
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The problem is not with employees being “jumpy”
The problem is with employers paying external laterals more than their internal employees on a raise
Oftentimes, the only time to catch up to market is to switch companies
I often see resumes where someone has worked at 6 companies over the last 10 years.
I'm staring at one right now. These job-hoppers usually last a little under 2yrs per company on average.
If someone has a jumpy resume, it's the first thing I notice. It's so blatant to me, yet
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Dynasty RB rankings
1: Bijan Robinson
2: No idea
CMC
JT
Gibbs
Hall
Achane?
Etienne?
Walker?
All have an argument
Who the hell knows really...
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Adonai Mitchell is the best WR of the 2024 class in some key areas:
- Ball skills (hands, ball tracking, body control, contested catches)
- Red zone route running (see📽️below)
- Athlete (9.99 RAS and 4.34 40 at 6'2, 205)
The production wasn't great, but the film is impeccable
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I gotta say, shout out to all of you taking on orphans. You're what keeps these dynasty leagues alive.
We give a lot of (deserved) hate for people leaving leagues and not enough love for those replacing them.
So props to y'all
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Charbonnet to Seattle… why?
The first truly awful landing spot.
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