Durable Value Creators
@DurableCreators
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Searching for high-quality, durable businesses with robust competitive advantages, runways for growth, and a history of creating value for shareholders.
Joined January 2022
Latest is out on S*bstack (link in profile). A quick overview of Badger Meter, one of my favorite companies (outside of the valuation). I think the company is a good play on water-related trends without needing to invest in capital-intensive utility companies.
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"One good dev with Github Copilot ships what entire teams did five years ago." "Armed with AI, they ship entire products in days." Do these people even work in the industry?
This chart is nuts. Software developer jobs down 70% from peak. People will blame the end of free money. But something way more interesting is happening. The middle class engineer is dying. And it's dying because they're not needed anymore. One good dev with Github Copilot ships what entire teams did five years ago. Microsoft just reported the highest revenue per employee in history. The "entry-level engineer" doesn't exist anymore. Instead, we have product builders who happen to code. Armed with AI, they ship entire products in days. Meanwhile, the truly elite engineers are making more money than ever. And they've shifted to working mostly on frontier tech. I mean the stuff that's really hard. AGI at OpenAI. Designing rockets at SpaceX. Self-driving car tech at Tesla. Product builders are becoming solopreneurs and creators Frontier engineers are making hedge fund money In 2025, "software engineer" doesn't mean what it meant in 2020. And that's what this chart really shows. The middle is gone. The top is elite status. And everyone else is becoming a builder.
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@nfrosinha Yup, I personally thought the GLP1 boom would have had more of a positive effect… at least enough to offset any other weakness we’re seeing in the sector.
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@bizalmanac Individual stocks could go up more and/or drawdown less to the point where even if you wait, you still end up paying more than if you just bought originally. Example: FICO is in a 25% drawdown now but still up 3% in last 6mo / 36% in last year (just my $0.02)
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A couple of perpetually expensive stocks/companies reported earnings today. High quality, very low volatility businesses, but ~64x and ~50x forward earnings for 10%-12% top line growth is tough. Not because they can't continue it, but can the multiples remain this high? $TYL $ROL
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@SayNoToTrading I don’t have a problem with volatility. It has given me a number of great opportunities to buy shares of high quality businesses at more reasonable prices.
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From the earnings call: Company doesn't expect any impact from changes in the Amazon-UPS relationship Not really impacted by tariff-related headwinds $SPSC
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Ametek with an 11% dividend increase and $1.25 billion share repurchase authorization. Historically they didn't always raise the dividend every year but have now raised it by low double digits every year since 2020. $AME
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Honeywell aerospace business is solid right? Probably the most attractive out of the 3 business units. Not sure it turns into another GE Aerospace but could be a name to watch $HON
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IDEX $IEX down almost 10% today after reporting earnings last night. High quality business, good management team, lots to like here. But it's tough to keep up with the market when organic growth is so low... A similar but lower tier $AME in my eyes. Gotta buy it real cheap.
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6 months ago, analysts had Hershey 2025 EPS at 9.44. Today, estimates have fallen over 20% to 7.34, which puts the current stock price at just over 19x 2025 earnings. Crazy to think the stock was double the price less than 2 years ago yet still trades at nearly 20x today... $HSY
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Do you have the courage to buy $FICO at 58x 2025 earnings here?
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@buckbid $1700 is a ~30% drawdown if it hits. Feels like that's an "interesting" starting point, even if the metrics say it's wildly expensive. Not sure if VantageScore (or others) can really compete without government-forced inclusion. But FICO also has no more market share to gain now.
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@Nik__K22 Definitely one of the best positioned companies out there for future economic trends. Feels like they are the "picks and shovels" for popular picks and shovels ideas. I'm close to double my initial investment which I think is a mental hurdle preventing me from adding.
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