Some quick thoughts on the latest news concerning #Trump-#Putin contact and everything related to it. 1. The first talks between Trump and Putin are now officially coming out, but the contacts between senior officials have already been taking place for several weeks. On the Russian side, this has involved both the presidential administration and the security services. I am not talking about figures like Kirill Dmitriev, who has played a role in facilitating unofficial interactions with Americans both now and in the past. However, the nice “gentleman Kirill”, as @SteveWitkoff put it, is not someone who makes decisions—he is merely a linking mediator, someone who can pass messages but not determine outcomes. 2. The main intrigue now is who will represent Russia in negotiations with the Americans. As my brilliant colleague @AlexGabuev noted, the absence of @SPE_Kellogg in Trump’s post could be telling. From what I understand, Moscow was explicitly reluctant to engage with Kellogg, and there are reasons to believe that Trump himself hesitated to keep him as a key negotiator. Putin, in turn, may bring in heavyweight figures such as Ushakov for the official talks. 3. Putin’s patience has paid off. Many high-level figures within Russia’s diplomatic and security circles were increasingly frustrated with the initial statements and approaches of Trump and his team on Ukraine. Trump’s “plans” appeared not just unacceptable but outright hostile. The idea of “dealing with Russia from a position of strength” was particularly irritating. Nevertheless, Putin chose patience, working steadily to ingratiate himself with Trump—being accommodating, showing flexibility, and projecting a willingness to compromise. Now, he has secured the first step: the launch of substantial negotiations. 4. I remain highly sceptical about the prospects of these talks. Trump wants a ceasefire and some kind of arrangement that would sideline the Ukraine issue for a while. But his vision still differs radically from Putin’s. For Putin, a real solution means a Ukraine that is “friendly” to Russia - deprived of military capability, has a rewritten constitution and guarantees non-membership in NATO. Talk of “boots on the ground” triggers either irritation or outright mockery in Moscow. 5. Make no mistake—Putin is fully prepared for these talks to fail. From the Kremlin’s perspective, there is nothing the West can do that would reverse Russia’s territorial gains and prevent Ukraine’s collapse in the long run. With Trump’s help, this process might accelerate; without Trump’s help, it will still happen sooner or later. In the meantime, Putin will continue to flatter and appease Trump, offering concessions that Trump will portray as a HUGE SUCCESS and a WONDERFUL DEAL. But these concessions—such as a ceasefire—will not deter Russia from its ultimate goal: securing a “friendly” Ukraine on its terms.

Yesterday during our webinar, @j_kobzova, @KadriLiik, @LeonidL & @DumoulinME discussed on what Europeans can do to help advance a better deal for #Ukraine. If you have missed it, you can find here the recording!⬇️

🗓️ Don't forget to sign up for our upcoming webinar tomorrow at 9:30 CET! Join experts @j_kobzova, @KadriLiik, @LeonidL, and @DumoulinME as they discuss how Europe can contribute to securing a better future for #Ukraine. More details ⬇️

📅Join us on Jan 29 at 9.30 AM CET Our experts @j_kobzova @KadriLiik @LeonidL & @DumoulinME will discuss what the 🇪🇺 can do to shape future negotiation in a way that is more favourable to Ukraine’s and their own interests 🇺🇦. Remember to register ⬇️

❓ | #TTP: Can Poland's EU Presidency Be Credible Without Deploying Troops to Ukraine? Europe's security is Poland's priority as it assumes the EU Council presidency. But can Warsaw show credible leadership without deploying troops to 🇺🇦? Experts reply: