Drew Linzer
@DrewLinzer
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Pollster, statistician, political scientist. Director at @Civiqs . Daily polling updates:
Oakland, CA
Joined January 2012
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We
@Civiqs
started tracking Trump vs. Harris two weeks ago. Normally this info is paywalled, but this deserves sharing:
- Through 7/21, Biden trailed Trump 46-44 nationally; Harris was ahead 48-46. Trump is stuck at a ceiling of 46. Harris gains from 3rd party/undecided voters.
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An incredible look at the PA-Sen race based on daily tracking of Fetterman & Oz favorable ratings by
@Civiqs
that we can now release.
That "disastrous" debate? In reality, it helped Fetterman and stalled out Oz's improving favorable ratings.
@kerryeleveld
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Digging into the pres vote crosstabs:
- Young voters (18-34) go from Biden 44-36 (+8) to Harris 57-37 (+20)
- Independents go from Trump 48-32 (+16) to Trump 49-41 (+8)
- Harris picks up 7pp among Black voters and 8pp among Hispanic voters, almost all from 3rd party/undecideds
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Kyrsten Sinema has an 18% favorable rating in Arizona right now.
Democrats: 5% fav, 82% unfav
Independents: 25% fav, 56% unfav
Republicans: 25% fav, 45% unfav
(Normally this is paywalled here so just screenshots)
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Reminder this polling is from *before* Biden announced that he was exiting the race.
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We polled belief in the
#QAnon
conspiracy theory.
Fully 33% of Republicans say it is mostly true. 23% think some parts are true. Only 13% say it's not true at all.
In contrast, 72% of Democrats say the QAnon theory isn't true.
Only 14% of Americans have never heard of QAnon.
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New Georgia poll, May 16-18
@Civiqs
President:
Biden (D) 48%
Trump (R) 47%
Senate:
Ossoff (D) 47%
Perdue (R) 45%
Special runoff:
Warnock (D) 45%
Collins (R) 44%
N=1339 RV
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Coronavirus vaccine skepticism has come way down for Black and Hispanic people since last fall. Where skepticism remains high is among white Republicans. Nearly 60% of white Rs will either not take the vaccine or are unsure.
@Civiqs
tracking:
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Nancy Pelosi favorable ratings keep climbing. Since Election Day, she's up 13 points among Democrats, 9 points among Independents, and even 2 points among Republicans.
@Civiqs
tracking polls as of 1/10/19.
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Support for the
#BlackLivesMatter
movement is the highest it has ever been in over three years of polling
@Civiqs
. This weekend was the single most significant shift in Americans' racial attitudes since we began asking the question in April 2017.
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Interestingly, the largest/highest profile misses were almost all in races where the Republican beat the polls:
- IN-Sen: polls D+2; actual R+8
- OH-Gov: polls D+3; actual R+4
- SD-Gov: polls D+3; actual R+3
- TN-Sen: polls R+5; actual R+11
- IA-Gov: polls D+2; actual R+3
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Remarkable. The 2022 election sent Trump's favorable rating from an already low 38% down to 33%.
Among Republicans, Trump's favorable rating went from 81% to 71%, the lowest it's been since before the 2016 election.
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The coronavirus partisan divide is real. Twice as many Democrats (60%) are changing plans or taking precautions than Republicans (31%).
88% of Republicans are satisfied with the government's response. Among Democrats? 11%.
Survey report
@Civiqs
3/8-11:
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I've analyzed 1,221 polls of the presidential election in all 50 states. They point to a Clinton victory.
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The presidential "double haters" pattern is still here: In Georgia, people who are unfavorable towards both Trump and Biden are voting for Biden, 60% to 2%.
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#BlackLivesMatter
is the single most favorably viewed national political organization or politician in America right now.
Black Lives Matter 53%
Obama 52%
Trump 42%
Warren 41%
Biden 40%
Pelosi 40%
Sanders 39%
Democrats 39%
Schumer 36%
GOP 33%
Tea Party 26%
McConnell 25%
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There is a 2022 U.S. House generic ballot tracking poll of likely voters published by
@Civiqs
that is not in any of the aggregators but is updated every day here:
It has consistently shown a Democratic candidate lead of 2 to 4 points.
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New poll: Reality is sinking in for how long the pandemic is going to last.
Now: 44% of Americans think it will be 6+ months until things go back to normal. 27% say we'll never be back to normal.
In April, 55% believed the pandemic would be over by June.
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There is an education split on *where* people are working. 79% of employed Americans with post-graduate degrees are working from home, up from 15% pre-outbreak! In contrast, 60% of non-college graduates are still going into work. Big implications for public health & safety. (8/?)
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In hindsight, 57% of Americans now believe that the U.S. government should have done more in response to the coronavirus outbreak in the spring, when the outbreak began.
Only 27% think that the government did enough.
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I want to share some of the results of our new coronavirus survey, out today, because the impact on people's lives, across the country, is already staggering. Not just health; it's work, income, and how and where it's felt. (1/?)
The full report is here:
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Net approval of Biden actions:
Increasing COVID-19 vaccination: +59% (!)
Juneteenth a new federal holiday: +19%
Passing the American Rescue Plan: +17%
Leaving Afghanistan: +17%
Canceling student debt for borrowers with disabilities: +16%
Enhanced child tax credit payments: +16%
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Here is something you almost never see in polling. Usually when Dems are happy, Reps are unhappy, and vice versa.
Right now, 78% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
By party:
Democrats 78%
Republicans 78%
Independents 78%
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Raising taxes on the wealthy is a popular idea. In
@Civiqs
tracking polls as of 1/4/19:
Total
59% Support
31% Oppose
Democrats
92% Support
4% Oppose
Independents
55% Support
32% Oppose
Republicans
23% Support
61% Oppose
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A large majority of Americans, 58% see the U.S. government’s coronavirus response as worse than other countries.
But 58% of Republicans (and 67% of frequent Fox News viewers) think the U.S. government has done a *better* job than governments in other countries.
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In '08 and '12 Pres polls, the number of people choosing Other or Undecided fell over time. This year, it's going UP
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Our latest national favorable/unfavorable ratings from
@Civiqs
polling as of 8/21:
Kamala Harris: 46% - 50% (-4)
Tim Walz: 46% - 43% (+3)
Donald Trump: 42% - 55% (-13)
JD Vance: 37% - 52% (-15)
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With the start of the new school year, most Americans do not think that school reopenings in their area are going well:
Going smoothly: 17%
Going badly, but will improve: 31%
Going badly, and will not improve: 31%
The youngest people are the most pessimistic.
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Most Republicans don't think a coronavirus outbreak will happen in their area (52% a little/not likely) and they are not concerned about it (74% a little/not concerned).
Compare to Democrats: 78% think an outbreak is likely, and 67% are extremely/moderately concerned about it.
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Good Wednesday. Enjoying re-reading the mentions on this one.
New Poll: WISCONSIN Election 2022
Senate
Ron Johnson (R) 50%
Mandela Barnes (D) 49%
Governor
Tony Evers (D) 51%
Tim Michels (R) 48%
N=739, Nov. 4-7, 2022
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When you only poll once a month, you're going to see fake "trends" like this
@CNN
because of random sampling error.
Trump's approval rating isn't rising. It has been steady at 42% for weeks. Here's our daily polling:
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Mitch McConnell is already at 7% favorable. Not sure how much lower that can go.
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Support for impeachment in states with GOP senators:
Collins (ME): 61% (+24 support)
Gardner (CO): 55% (+14)
Toomey (PA): 51% (+4)
Ernst/Grassley (IA): 50% (+2)
Johnson (WI): 50% (+2)
McSally (AZ): 50% (+1)
Rubio/Scott (FL): 49% (+1)
@Civiqs
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Final Clinton polling lead in:
MI +7
VA +6
NM +6
WI +5
NH +5
PA +5
CO +4
FL +2
NC +2
NV +1
AZ -1
OH -2
GA -2
IA -4
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My final 2016 presidential election forecast: Clinton 323 - Trump 215. Clinton picks up NC, Trump flips IA and OH.
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As of 3/30, 94% of Americans are practicing social distancing. That's good! It's also a huge number and highlights how widespread the awareness of the crisis is. I have been doing survey research for 20+ years and almost never see percentages this high on anything. (2/?)
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This is a thread on presidential election forecasting, polls, and fundamentals, based on my research and experience forecasting the 2012 and 2016 elections.
Let's walk through some of the debates and why it gets contentious.
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Public polling for the 2018 senate and governor races was pretty good. Using the final poll aggregates from
@DKElections
:
- The RMSE of the D%-R% margin was a reasonable 4.7%
- On average, polls over-estimated Democratic win margins by 0.7%
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In a 2015 article,
@benlauderdale
and I estimated that presidential candidates receive an extra 1.8% of the vote in the home state of their vice presidential candidate, with a 95% posterior credible interval of (0.6%, 3.1%).
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This is one of my favorite results from our
@Civiqs
tracking polls: Republicans' views of the direction of the US economy pre/post 2016 election (screenshot since it's normally behind a paywall )
Say what you will, but panel survey data shows that Trump's election helped to quickly alleviate economic dissatisfaction among many who voted for him.
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State-level presidential polls underestimated Trump's vote share, by a lot. Anyone still saying the polls were ok is doing a disservice.
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Some eye-popping state polls for Clinton over the last few days
CO +6, 11, 11
VA +6, 7
PA +4, 9, 10
NV +1, 6, 3
NC +3, 1, 6
FL +2, 4, 1, 5
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Those statistics you've seen about jobless claims are all very real. Through 3/30, one in FIVE Americans who were working before the outbreak say that they have been laid off or furloughed from their position. Fully 39% (!) of households have lost income. (6/?)
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Over the past six months, basically every undecided Independent female voter has broken to the Democrats on the generic house ballot.
It's gone from a 41-35 Dem advantage in May to 52-35 now.
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Democrats, Republicans, and Independents agree: The coronavirus is a real threat, not blown out of proportion. Even so, there is still a big partisan divide.
Percent saying "real threat" by party:
Democrats: 94%
Republicans: 51%
Independents: 73%
(9/?)
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Update: Trump job approval down to 41% in
@Civiqs
daily tracking poll, a 30-month low.
Largest sustained drop among Independent white women (13% of US), from 42% approval in March to 33% now.
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Some polling on JD Vance from this week:
- National favorable rating: 34%
- Favorable rating among women: 28%
- Percent of Republicans who think Vance was a good VP choice: 67%
- Percent of Rs who think Trump should have picked someone else: 16%
Source:
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People who study this stuff know what data points to what outcomes. A Trump win would belie a wide range of theory and evidence.
Latest forecast:
Popular two-party vote: Clinton up by 5.6 points
Electoral vote: 323 Clinton vs. 215 Trump
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78% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of
@SpeakerPelosi
in our
@Civiqs
tracking, a number that is over 20 points higher than before the 2018 election, with no signs of weakening.
Liberals’ frustration with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rises over her response to Rep. Ilhan Omar dispute
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QAnon is not a typical political group so we're trying something new to track
@Civiqs
. The question is: "Are you a supporter of QAnon?"
Total: Yes 7% / No 60% / Unsure 11%
Republicans: Yes 14% / No 31% / Unsure 21%
Democrats: Yes 2% / No 83% / Unsure 4%
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One of the biggest movers on the generic House vote this year has been Independent women, who have gone from even (42D-42R) in August to D+10 (50D-40R) now
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People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")
Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%
Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%
Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%
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We pay a lot of attention to the polls. But the fundamentals nailed the presidential vote again: Approval ratings and economic growth.
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Current Clinton polling lead in:
VA +9
NH +8
PA +7
CO +7
FL +4
NC +3
NV +2
OH +1
AZ +1
GA +1
IA -1
MO -4
TX -4
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@MelissaRyan
It was "Do you believe that the QAnon theory about a conspiracy among deep state elites is true?"
We kept the wording identical to the last time we polled it, a year ago. I do think the phrasing can make a difference here, especially with how fluid the meaning of "QAnon" is.
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The presidential polls in swing states were badly and systematically wrong, by amounts not seen in decades.
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Net approval of Biden actions, con't
Passing infrastructure bill in Senate: +11%
Enable transgender Americans in the military: +8%
Rejoin Paris Climate Agreement: +7%
Extending unemployment benefits: +3%
Reverse Trump immigration policies: -6%
Revoke permits for Keystone XL: -6%
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Americans increasingly know someone who is infected. In this survey (March 28-30), 13% say they know someone who has been infected or are infected themselves. So you don't think that's exaggerated, in our last survey 3 weeks ago, that number was 1%. (4/?)
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More Republicans are taking the coronavirus vaccine, but maybe more significantly, the percent of hard "No" is falling, via
@Civiqs
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And in three days, we'll know the outcome, calculate Brier scores, claim credit, point fingers, etc. Meantime, as Sean says, Clinton's ahead
What's so bizarre about this is all the models point to a Clinton win. People are going ballistic for saying "1-in-3 chance" vs "1-in-10."
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Harris' favorable rating is WAY UP since becoming the Democratic nominee. From mid-July to now, she's improved 10% nationally and in states including PA, AZ NV, MI, GA & WI.
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For fun: Who's your long-shot, deep sleeper pick for Tues? Presidential or down-ballot. I'll start: Jim Gray over Rand Paul in
#KYsen
.
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Despite all of this approval, 47% of Americans say their opinion of Biden has gotten worse since January. Only 18% say their opinion of Biden has improved. 35% say their opinion of Biden is unchanged.
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In sum, more than half of US households (54%) have either lost work or had hours cut (26%), or are insecure/at risk: 28% are extremely or moderately concerned about the financial impact of coronavirus on their household. (7/?)
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Clinton's chances improve after a strong day of polling: from 88% this morning to 92% now. Forecast remains 323 EVs.
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Key points from today's
@UpshotNYT
article by
@KevinQ
&
@emilymbadger
with state polling by
@Civiqs
1. Republicans and Democrats are a world apart on concern about the outbreak, despite increasing R worry. Majority of Rs are still not concerned today.
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The flip side of massive social distancing is that 67% of Americans right now are spending nearly every day at home, leaving only for exercise or essential items. Repeat: Two-thirds of the country right now is spending nearly every day locked at home. (3/?)
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How did the
@FiveThirtyEight
pollster rating system do in 2022? This chart shows the error in every Sen/Gov poll (dot) in the last month of the campaign, and the average error (line), by 538 grade.
Pollsters rated B+ and B- were more accurate than pollsters rated A- or A/B.
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The coronavirus outbreak is not an urban-only phenomenon. Not even close. Two-thirds of Americans living in urban areas (68%) have experienced an outbreak -- but so have 55% of people in suburban areas, and 43% of people in rural areas. (5/?)
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We'll keep watching this. Thanks for reading. Be safe, everyone. (18/18)
The complete questionnaire and crosstabs,
@Civiqs
national survey, March 28-30, 2020:
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Here are the ten polling firms whose 2022 Sen/Gov polls were more accurate than average, among firms who released results for 9+ races in the final month of the campaign. 👏
SurveyUSA
Marist
Research Co.
YouGov
Emerson College
Civiqs
Cygnal
Data for Progress
Remington
Siena
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Context for presidential polling right now: A lot of voters still think the matchup is not going to be Biden vs. Trump...
• 30% of voters think the Democrat won't be Biden
• 22% of voters think the Republican won't be Trump
From last week, Q2 & Q3:
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Here's a trendline that's barely budged in a year and a half. The generic house ballot is +9 to the Democrats, same as the outcome of the 2018 election.
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We
@Civiqs
polled on a bipartisan border deal just last week -- voters want this.
Given the choice, 57% want a compromise deal now; only 15% said wait until after the election. 80% of Dems, 51% of Indys, and 35% of Reps want an immigration & border deal.
We’ve reached an agreement on a bipartisan deal that includes the toughest and fairest set of border reforms in decades. And it includes support for Ukraine and Israel and provides humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people.
I urge Congress to pass this bill immediately.
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With votes mostly counted, an analysis of pollster accuracy in the 2022 election. (thread)
Thanks to
@FiveThirtyEight
for keeping track of the polls used here. Their archive is an important public service and a great asset to researchers.
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Paul Ryan announces his retirement today with a 16% favorable rating. Yes, 16%.
He's not even net positive among Republicans: 31% favorable, 39% unfavorable. Losing PA-18 was the final nail in the coffin.
More data from
@Civiqs
Paul Ryan polls -->
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We're out with a new national poll today
@Civiqs
, all interviewing post-Super Tuesday and SOTU:
- Topline presidential Biden +1
- Biden job approval at 37% (+2 since late Jan)
- Trump's legal issues
- Attitudes towards IVF
Full report & xtabs:
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Trump's job approval doesn't vary much, but it just hit its lowest point since January 2018.
Daily tracking poll from
@Civiqs
:
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More impacts on people's daily lives: 82% have recently experienced grocery shortages or had difficulty buying household items like toilet paper. Interestingly, these shortages have been felt most strongly in *rural* areas (86%) rather than urban areas (80%). (10/?)
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Trump's challenge: If Clinton wins VA (leading +8), PA (+6), and NC (+3) then Trump would have to sweep FL, OH, IA, NV, AZ, CO, WI, and NH.
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Numbers of third-party and undecided voters falling fast in national presidential polls, but still well above 2008, 2012 levels.
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New poll: Trump leaves office with enormous support among Republican voters
• 86% favorable rating
• 78% think that the election was stolen
• 73% say GOP objection to electoral vote was protecting democracy
• 91% disapprove of Twitter suspension
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Americans don't see the coronavirus outbreak settling down anytime soon. There's an optimistic 20% who think things will be back to normal by the end of April. But 36% say it will take until the end of June, 30% say September, and 8% think we'll never get back to normal. (11/?)
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Meanwhile, people are concerned that they're going to get sick, and if they do, that they won't be able to get a test. Most Americans are extremely (19%) or somewhat (41%) worried about becoming ill. Only 11% are very confident they could get a test if they wanted one. (12/?)
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In a recent poll we asked if people who voted for Trump in 2020 thought of themselves more as a Trump supporter or a Republican Party supporter.
2/3 said Trump supporter
1/3 said Republican Party supporter
NEW: Trump has talked to associates in recent days about starting a new party after he leaves the White House.
He wants to call it the Patriot Party.
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Update since last month: People choosing Other or Undecided on national presidential polls is falling, but still 6-8% more than '08 and '12
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House generic ballot LV poll
@Civiqs
, updated Nov 7:
Democratic candidate 49%
Republican candidate 47%
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A new national
@Civiqs
survey conducted after Trump's FL indictment shows signs of strength for Trump in 2024 but also some weaknesses against DeSantis and Biden.
Report -
Short summary thread:
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Over the last 5 years, more Republicans see Russia as a foe, not a potential ally:
Jan '17: 29% foe/40% ally
Jan '18: 41% foe/32% ally
Jan '19: 48% foe/25% ally
Jan '20: 47% foe/25% ally
Jan '21: 60% foe/18% ally
Jan '22: 66% foe/14% ally
via
@Civiqs
:
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Let's look at policy responses. The new coronavirus stimulus bill receives 69% support. Going further -- most people support a total, national quarantine right now: 44% strongly, 25% somewhat. Even a majority of Republicans (52%) support a national stay-at-home quarantine. (13/?)
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