Matt Powers
@DraftPow
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NBA draft and teambuilding • EIC @swishtheory Former contributor @thestepien
New York, NY
Joined March 2021
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It’s here! Put more work into this than any previous board with a big methodology update, more tape than ever and stats deep dives. Hope you enjoy!
The
@DraftPow
Big Board, 2024. Enjoy a Top 40 ranking with 20,000 words, far from consensus takes, archetype tags and custom metrics.
🔗
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Thinking about how there's a 19-year-old who put up 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game on 60% from two, 33% from three, 82% FTs playing against older pros, mostly by multiple year age gaps...and he's being mocked in the mid-20s
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Fun fact: Keyonte has the same number of dunks and dunk attempts through three games at Summer League as his entire season at Baylor
Keyobte George looks definitely more explosive than at Baylor
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Still so confounding to me.
#10
on my board
Thinking about how there's a 19-year-old who put up 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game on 60% from two, 33% from three, 82% FTs playing against older pros, mostly by multiple year age gaps...and he's being mocked in the mid-20s
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Jordan Walsh in G League debut:
18 pts (4-9 from three, 3-5 from two)
8 rebounds
5 assists
2 steals
2 blocks
Love to see the confidence letting it fly in particular
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Something I absolutely underestimated with Walker Kessler and never will again: tracking the ball in the air + highly accurate hand placement for blocks *on the move* is such a good indicator for NBA translation, especially when you also have >7 foot wingspan
Some of Taylor Hendricks' blocks this year are absolutely absurd. His feel for not fouling when going for these one-on-one contests always amazes me
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Scoot Henderson shot 42-101 on contested deep midrange pull-ups, earning him a 99th percentile grade from InStat data tracking. Feels like this point has gotten lost a bit over the cycle.
(Also, the line between midrange and rim attempts becomes blurred when you're Scoot)
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Summer League players/items i’m most interested to watch:
ATL: Bufkin physicality
BOS: Justin Champagnie interior scoring
BKN: Clowney at the 5
CHA: NSJ getting comfortable with NBA range
CHI: Justin Lewis driving
CLE: Emoni role-fitting
DAL: Hardy PNR passing
DEN: KAMAGATE
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Second straight year of Clingan holding opponents to *under 44%* shooting at the rim.
For comparison, in their draft years:
Chet Holmgren - 46%
Walker Kessler - 50%
Evan Mobley - 50%
Dereck Lively - 51%
Mark Williams - 52%
Nic Claxton - 58%
Opponent shooting with Clingan on the court (difference to when off)
Rim: 43.6% (-10%)
Midrange: 28.7% (-8.3%)
Three: 28.6% (-2.8%)
*stats exclude garbage time.
Just a staggering level of impact to take an already great defense to historically dominant.
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The DraftPow Big Board, 2022, featuring:
• Full top-70 board with prospect capsules for top 30
• Over 8k words in new writing
• Player archetype badges
• Favorite player-team fits
Hope you enjoy!
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VCU's Vince Williams Jr. shot an unreal 8-11 from three off stepbacks, change of direction and in & outs his junior and senior seasons, as part of his resume while shooting 40% on 272 attempts from deep.
Somehow, he is absent from most major mock drafts, a first rounder to me
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started a new job this week i’m very happy about :)
gonna utilize Circles more, like this tweet or DM if you want to be added!
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Tagging the roll and *still* getting the one-pass-away steal, lol
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Jaden Springer in G-League 2022 so far:
- 25 pts, 5 rebs, 2 assts, 1 stl
- 22 pts, 4 rebs, 6 assts, 5 stls, 1 blk
- 24 pts, 7 rebs, 2 assts, 1 blk
- decent shooting: 55% from 2, 36% from 3, 71% from line
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Summer League players/items i’m most interested to watch:
ATL: Sharife finishing
BOS: Trevion positionality
BKN: Alondes defense
CHA: Ty-Shon Alexander
CHI: Dalen Terry driving
CLE: Amar Sylla
DAL: Jaden Hardy PNR
DEN: Kamagate hands
DET: everything
GSW: PBJ tempo
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Salt Lake City Stars beat the G League Ignite 158-99. What did we learn?
THREAD:
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Largest usage rate increases in 2021-22 as true shooting also improves, age 22 season or younger:
1. Ja Morant (+5% USG, +3% TS)
2. Devin Vassell (+4%, +2%)
3. Deni Avdija (+3%, +3%)
4. Deandre Ayton (+3%, +0.3%)
5. Cole Anthony (+2%, +2%)
6. Trae Young (+3%, +0.3%)
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Leandro Bolmaro so far in G League for Iowa Wolves:
- 20 points, 9 rebs, 3 ast, 1 stl, 1 blk
- 19 points, 5 rebs, 5 asst, 2 stl
- 25 points, 5 rebs, 6 asst, 1 stl, 1 blk
- 69% true shooting (57% 2P, 50% 3P, 85% FT)
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Self-created makes per 40 minutes for select NBA draft prospects:
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Yves Missi's upside is never as intriguing as when he puts the ball on the floor with some space
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Rookies thrown into the deep end right away. Rank of *majority-starter lineup* minutes so far:
1. Ausar Thompson
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Victor Wembanyama
5. Dereck Lively II
6. Jaime Jaquez Jr.
7. Keyonte George
8. Gradey Dick
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Self-created points leaders among select NBA draft prospects (source: ):
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The Summer League stats that translate the most to rookie year (all per 36):
1. 3PAs
2. Assists
3. Blocks
4. Offensive rebounds
5. FGA
Least:
1. FT%
2. 3P%
3. Steals
4. FTAs
5. FG%
reminder that SL is good for projecting some things, but not alot of things. lol
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Isaiah Collier had good rim attempt volume (154 attempts) and efficiency (62%) despite finishing almost exclusively below the rim and through traffic. Self-created 3/4ths of his rim makes and had some flashes of excellent touch on tape
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Jordan Walsh is one of the few wing defenders whose technique I'd describe as Battier-esque. Real 1st Team All-Defense upside
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GG Jackson averages after ten games with G League’s Memphis Hustle:
22 points
7 rebounds (2 offensive)
2 assists
3 turnovers
51% on 5 2PA/game
36% on 8 3PA/game
86% on 4 FTA/game
0.9 steals
1.5 blocks
Turns 19 in two weeks
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Carlton "Bub" Carrington's 32% from three understates his degree of shotmaking. Bub was sixth in the NCAA in pull-up attempts at 250 and still maintained 83rd percentile efficiency at over 1.0ppp. All while being the youngest player in the ACC.
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When Isaiah Collier uses his burst to create passing pockets >>
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DaRon Holmes in PNR, two plays in quick succession:
- Sets real screens
- Resets footwork quickly
- Powerful leaper to the hoop
- 40% from three on pops
- Improved driving to draw help
- Consistently finds the open man
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So 6’7’’ Dyson can do this now, huh
(from baseline.hoops on IG)
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Anthony Black / Bruce Brown
(freshman seasons)
22% / 22% USG
55% / 56% TS
21% / 21% AST
1.3 / 1.6 A:TO
3.4 / 2.9 STL%
1.9 / 1.9 BLK%
93-148 (63%) / 90-144 (63%) at rim
32% / 21% midrange
71% / 74% FT%
30% / 35% 3P%
58 / 41 FTAR
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Favorite Returners for 2023:
- Arthur Kaluma, Creighton
- DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
- Will Richard, Florida
- Daimion Collins, Kentucky
- Tristen Newton, UConn
Most Underrated:
- Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
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Thinking about how Jalen Suggs will make several all-defensive teams, and become one of the best defense-to-offense players in the league, and will also play next to Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero
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Jamal Shead clips.
- Elite reaction time, ground coverage, hand placement and instant leaping make stocks likely to translate
- Creative manipulating defense on drives using burst
- May be best passer in class. Perfect velocity and accuracy
- Lacks high efficiency scoring option
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Nikola Topic averaged 7 rim attempts per game this season with Mega. I hand-tracked each one and found:
- Closeness to the basket has minimal impact
- Very good at sustaining slight advantages
- Lacks leaping force to break through tight contests
- Creates almost all unassisted
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Cam Whitmore points in transition, per InStat:
EYBL (2021) - 6.8
FIBA (2022) - 6.7
Villanova (2023) - 1.7
Going back through the tape, tons of opportunities for Villanova to push but not their style (6th %ile in NCAA) Can effectively adjust Cam's ppg by ~+3 to compensate
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Brice Sensabaugh's midrange dominance.
Of any 1AD draft pick w/150+ midrange attempts:
• 1ˢᵗ in midrange FG% (49%)
• 2ⁿᵈ to Fultz in self-created middies (70)
• 9ᵗʰ in self-created share (82%)
Also:
• 5ᵗʰ in 3pt volume
• 9ᵗʰ in 3p% (40%)
• 4ᵗʰ in FT% (80%)
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Nikola Djurisic is a clear first rounder on my board. Capable of rim pressure, creative passing deliveries, technical footwork on drives and some shot creation (though with mediocre efficiency).
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Favorite new basketball fits, aesthetically:
- Amen opening up Rockets’ offense
- Hali + Jarace connector supreme
- Hendricks + Kessler combined rim pro
- Paolo kicking to Jett
- Cissoko drives w/Wemby spacing
- Ricky Council vibes + Sixers bench
- Everything TJD with Warriors
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Gradey Dick defensive clips:
• Locks in to scheme & communicates
• Quick reactions but can get back cut (meh first step)
• Very good hand-eye coordination but can get shot over (6'9'' WS)
• Will chase down loose balls, wants to make plays
• Sticks with plays, good rebounder
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Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced use of ball screens at Summer League
It can be difficult to tell the real from the fake in the Vegas heat, but we are here to help. Our newest Swish Theory roundtable looks at takeaways from Summer League 2023. Who impressed or surprised, and what might carry over to the regular season?
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I believe in off-ball GG Jackson
GG Jackson runs baseline off the screen and hits the contested C&S 3 from the corner
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Newest words from me at
@TheStepien
, the third piece in a series of four looking at prospects through the lens of different archetypes.
In this I exhaust the term "connector" in all its interpretations and rank my favorite prospects that fit the molds:
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Pacome Dadiet has strong touch inside the arc, as evidenced by his tape in addition to the stats. Shot 68% on layups and 60% on pull-up twos (though limited attempts for both). Recovered from an ankle injury suffered in 2023 and also adapted to a growth spurt over the season.
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This was a fun prompt last year so let’s run it back - who’s your “false ceiling” guy this year?
Last year’s most mentioned pick was Franz Wagner, worked out well already
who’s everyone’s “false ceiling” pick for this draft? A guy talked about as a high-floor role player but you think has an underratedly high ceiling. Mine’s probably Ayo Dosunmu
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GG Jackson played often next to 7'0'' Josh Gray who made 100% of his FGA in the restricted area.
When playing w/o Gray, Jackson's interior scoring skyrocketed:
Rim rate: 21% -> 30%
Rim FG%: 54% -> 62%
Mid FG%: 24% -> 33%
Oreb%: 3% -> 6%
SC offense +10.4, defense +2.6 (net +8)
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Kyle Filipowski attacking off the dribble. Has become underrated in my opinion, a 6'11'' (w/o shoes) big with some dribble/pass/shoot appeal.
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Newest words from me
@TheStepien
. A "forest through the trees" look at what I have valued most, shortcomings of the archetype approach and how I can get better for the next cycle.
Features my case for steal of the 2022 draft: Jaden Hardy of the Mavs.
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MaCio Teague is easily worth a second rounder in my opinion. Beyond awesome on-and-off ball defense, has some underrated midrange sauce
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Bilal Coulibaly has a lot of tools at his disposal to be a highly impactful rim finisher:
- Torrid acceleration with strong frame
- The 7'2'' wingspan
- Understands how to use body to protect finish
- Extremely quick leaper
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Scoot's split craft is absurd, incorporating a hesi into accel before nearly ending Robert Woodard's life
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Running it back for year
#4
—
Who’s your “false ceiling” pick, a player commonly called low ceiling that you disagree with?
Last year’s draft twitter picks: Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Podziemski
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Amen is the best passing talent in the class, but I think Jarace Walker is the best current distributor. Always makes ultra-quick decisions and has access to subtle passing angles
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Using this as a benchmark, my largest differences:
I'm higher on:
1. Zach Edey
2. Jonathan Mogbo
3. Tyler Smith
4. Ron Holland
5. Zay Crawford
6. DaRon Holmes
I'm lower on:
1. Zaccharie Risacher
2. Dalton Knecht
3. Tidjane Salaun
4. Alex Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Stephon Castle
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Jared Butler league leader in “huh didn’t know there’s an angle there”
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All Annoying-To-Play-Against Team (highest possible compliment), 2023:
PG: Jamal Shead
SG: Devin Carter
SF: Isaiah Crawford
PF: Anton Watson
C: Zach Edey
HM: Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham
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Ja'Kobe Walter this season: 45% shooting on 58 catch and shoot threes (4.8 per game). My favorite form in the class aesthetically, and only behind Dillingham generally
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Perhaps my highest conviction bet this class is Tari Eason translating as a steals machine. Not only did he have the top steals rate but Tari also made extremely difficult swipes look pedestrian. Only Tari with his length + agility could pull off the first clip here w/o fouling:
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Excited to be releasing a Top 40 Big Board this year. Will feature prospect rankings, detailed player profiles, archetype badges and custom indicators. Stay tuned!
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Very impressed by Keyonte George's passing vision. Makes some high-advantage reads even when getting the ball out of his hands quickly
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Jonathan Mogbo is having an incredible season for San Francisco, averaging:
14.8 points
10.6 rebounds (3.9 offensive)
2.9 assists / 1.9 TOs
1.9 steals
1.1 blocks
68% FG / 73% FT
Leads the NCAA with 44 dunks (5 more than Zach Edey) in just 15 games.
First rounder on my board.
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If - and it's a big if - Ryan Dunn can develop enough offense to stay on the court, he has legitimate All-Defense upside. 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game compared to only 2.1 fouls. When on the court (usually as primary rimpro), UVA went from 278th best rim defense to 57th.
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Jaylon Tyson offense clips.
- Creative footwork and timing attacking the basket but lacks pop on last step
- Not a consistent passer but still capable of high-value reads
- Flow into pull-up and stability on catch and shoot are both excellent
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High degree of difficulty on this Devin Carter block, to time it and simultaneously avoid the Clingan screen
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For my debut piece
@SwishTheory
, I covered the
#1
prospect in the 2023 draft, Victor Wembanyama.
On why he meets the hype as the best prospect since LeBron and how he uniquely blends both floor- and ceiling-raising traits for maximum team-building flexibility.
Link below:⤵️
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I feel confident in saying Stephon Castle has top-10 feel in this class. Picks his angles well, has quick reaction times and predicts the next action. Is able to make manipulative reads and find gaps with his cutting. Likely to continue improving in unexpected ways.
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Favorite new player combos, aesthetically:
- Paolo + Franz
- Ivey + Cade
- AJG + Trae
- Branham + Dejounte
- MarJon + Giannis
- Jovic + Bam
- Alondes + Cam Thomas
- Justin Lewis + Pat W
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Ajay Mitchell offense.
- Finds hidden drive lanes
- Excellent at passing manipulation
- Very good touch on the move
- 3pt reluctancy clogs the paint, will be more of an issue w NBA length
- Elite at changing speeds but likely to struggle holding his own in midrange at NBA level
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Kris Murray at Iowa + DME Academy:
- 32% from three over 445 attempts
- 72% from the line over 289 attempts
Keegan at Iowa + DME:
- 39% from three over 383 attempts
- 78% from the line over 316 attempts
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Reed Sheppard's foul drawing is a major swing skill to me. Not explosive enough to get clean rim looks, Sheppard will instead have to use his change of speed to get an angle, then grift.
FTs drawn rate on drives:
Sears 25%
Mintz 21%
Simpson 17%
Collier 11%
Dilly 10%
Sheppard 10%
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Thread of early season combined rookie + sophomore leaders in a bunch of fun “other” categories:
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Opponent shooting with Clingan on the court (difference to when off)
Rim: 43.6% (-10%)
Midrange: 28.7% (-8.3%)
Three: 28.6% (-2.8%)
*stats exclude garbage time.
Just a staggering level of impact to take an already great defense to historically dominant.
Donovan Clingan heat check - assuming he declares, where would you take him?
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Nikola Topic is extremely adept at attacking space for a 6'6'' 18-year-old playing against older comp. Assesses what's given, knows how to set up (and reject) screens, not afraid to change pace in traffic.
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Cycle
#3
for this prompt - who’s your “false ceiling” pick this year? A player whose ceiling you think is the most underestimated.
Draft twitter picks last two seasons:
2021 - Franz, Moody
2022 - Johnny Davis, Keegan Murray
This was a fun prompt last year so let’s run it back - who’s your “false ceiling” guy this year?
Last year’s most mentioned pick was Franz Wagner, worked out well already
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Derrick White is such an impressive defender. Fifth overall in defensive EPM so far this season
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Was already extremely high on AJG’s shot but this looks significantly quickened up with the narrower base
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so this is what high school MarJon looked like huh
MarJon Beauchamp Tuesday night was on 🔥🔥🔥
43 points, TEN made 3s, game-winning free throws with less than a second left!
@Marjon32
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CMB has an important trait as a rim finisher - a direct, forceful final step in his gather - which makes me confident in his interior efficiency/volume holding up in the pros. There aren’t ten better NCAA prospects than him, and maybe fewer than five.
Collin Murray-Boyles went off in South Carolina's SEC tournament win with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 assists. 18-year old big man has outstanding touch, instincts, maturity and feel. Developing some kind of jumper at 6'7 is the next step, but productivity is impressive.
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Anthony Black is *the* elite connector prospect in the 2023 NBA draft, one I'd be more than comfortable taking with a top 10 pick.
My scouting report on the Arkansas Razorback freshman can be found in tweet below ⬇️ but first, some favorite plays from Ant so far:
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Sometimes you have to just trust your instincts with scouting, which is how I feel about Max Lewis this year - something about how he navigates drives with both elite stride length *and* elite balance shouts star to me.
Who’s your ‘trust your instincts’ pick this draft?
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Creighton’s Damien Jefferson is one of my favorite UDFA targets for teams needing immediate help. Great wing defender who uses body well and makes few mistakes.
Check him out clearing two guys at once in the last clip here
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