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DrJDizzle
@Dr_Jensen75
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A few thoughts...the probability for a downturn macro market is increasing. Tech analysis of futures for NASDAQ and S&P don't look strong. It's at a pivot point. Now is a good time to be out of leverage. Certainly, some good news, say Ukraine peace, could push broad markets to the upside, but for now the downside risk is getting higher. And if the market takes an overall bearish turn, it hardly matters what TSLA does for the next 4-6 months, it will get flushed with the market. Maybe...maybe with a decent catalyst TSLA could hold up better than other stocks in broad market downturn and I have seen that in the past. But I'm taking conservative approaches to investing for now. No leverage, minimal trading, small selling of options for premium and wait for more pain. I'm not selling any core positions, and in fact just used up almost the remainder of my capital to buy 100 shares at 357 as who knows when it could bounce. But just doesn't look like a healthy market. Hold and wait is best. I hope I'm wrong and certainly NO ONE has a crystal ball so I could be way off in my analysis, but we might see the first half of 2025 be the market downturn earlier than anticipated, and then hopefully 2nd half 2025 be moving back up.
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Perhaps we will see a bounce, it looks like it may be starting in the overnight. Certainly, the announcement of TSLA hiring robotics engineers is a surprise soft catalyst hinting at an early timeframe for production that will hopefully wake up wall street and perhaps keep the stock from sinking to $350. Thanks @JOBhakdi and all of the other great technical investors in the group supporting and providing thoughts and decisions on market conditions. If we go down from here, I guess DCA with every penny you can find...That is what Ill be doing! Cheers
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@the_jefferymead @SenWarren Great summary Jeff. Following you now. Calm, rational though is a breath of fresh air!
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@davidyoope @JOBhakdi I sold the last of my PLTR position day of earnings hehe. Too bad so sad! Even with a beat I figured the market would sell it off...
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Nick, I think your information is good for healthy consideration. I will make no attempt to prove you wrong as you 4 examples are reasonable to consider. 1. AI - still so much can happen and change in a moment, is deepseek really on par or superior to Tesla/Grok/OpenAI? Super hard to say at this point, but absolutely the Chinese arent messing around and have real technologic capability. 2. EV price and specs - I reviewed the video of the Huawei Avatr you posted. Certainly, a great car at a great price and very competitive with model Y and FSD. The Chinese are exceptional at manufacturing, and I think the cost of labor allows for such a low price point on a great car. Still, Model Y sales in China remain robust so hard to know, and Tesla gradually saves cost over time resulting in better pricing. 3. Autonomy - I asked Grok to compare the 2 systems and they seem on par from its explanation. I don't know how someone could determine which is best with many variables in play. And AI development in Tesla is intense, with Dojo training compute and billions of miles. I have a model Y with FSD and drives me to and from my 2nd job, approximately 100 miles with essentially flawless function, in traffic, lane changes, freeway entrance/exit. 4. Humanoid robots - probably the biggest factor in Tesla future, though autonomy will be big as well. I watched a video about Xpeng robot. Again you have to give credit to the Chinese with their techno innovations. They move quick. I think they copy others but then iterate quickly based upon that. I still think Tesla speed of development, and combined ability in all forms of AI will complement its own internal development. FSD helps Optimus over time. So this was more than I intended to write, but I dont think there is a company like Tesla in the world still. Some may over time produce a portion of the capability of what Tesla offers. But I dont think those companies can do what Tesla is doing OVERALL. But your points are valid and worth considering. Thanks for the post.
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@cenkuygur I have listened to many of your thoughts and arguments over the years. You have become increasingly reasonable on some issues. If the left could learn to have a open conversation with the 57%, and they ABSOLUTELY could if they approached it in an reasonable and calm manner, the 31% would start to realize they have been lied to constantly from the media and their favorite politicians. The 31% needs to STOP vilifying the 57%, or they will sink further into misery. Certainly, there is false information across the boards and all sides of politics, but the 57% are where reasonable people exist today.
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Definitely a difficult time for TSLA stock as there are incredible opportunities on the horizon but risk abound. Its also hard to what TSLA decline from Dec highs while other stocks move up comfortably. Q1 might be a miss again; certainly possible. Long-term very bullish but short term might still hurt a bit. Who knows.when the stock might pop on an announcement. As youve mentioned before Jimmy, I still think $350 is in play and high probability to touch which will hurt many investors. Then perhaps up from there.
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@M44_1RJ Tsla feeling a bit uncertain right now I admit. Whats that fear gage at? Feels like it should be pretty fearful...
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Good question and tough answer. PLTR had great earnings today and popped up big...seems way overvalued but perhaps it can grow into those numbers. I like PLTR a lot, but over $100 seems pretty steep. I will say that I've sold PLTR and the small NVDA I had and am focused on tesla. Virtually all in. It will get harder to get back into tesla once it starts to move up. June of this year could get crazy!
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@ChrisCoons Just stop with the "rule of law line!" Neither you nor Kyle Griffin have ANYYYY idea if any rules of law have been broken by anyone in the DOGE team. Moral shaming wont work anymore.
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@JustinTrudeau Lets not gloat too much...this was certainly the sensible thing for @JustinTrudeau to do vs bravado against reasonable requests for border security. Lets work together rather than bicker about silly things. Make North America great again??
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The government has been suffering under waste and abuse for decades and its reached a peak. Both political sides are at fault. But only one side will dig in and do the work to figure out the rot and try to resolve it. The side that is not emotionally manipulated and captured. So yes...let it play out. Trump recently said Elon is an advisory role ONLY. But the propagandists only are about attention and fearmongering.
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@teslatidbits @SawyerMerritt Agreed! Also its not about understanding in many cases...its about emotional outrage...what can spur the most emotional outrage on the left and that is what is peddled to the public. Has worked for decades! Only the ones who want to understand will figure it out!
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Thomas has it right. Its media (social or legacy) that is drumming up the drama about clearance, and authorization to make people emotional against Musk. Expose it all....its going to be ugly and I will never understand why leftist minded people want to keep it hidden, except those who are directly implicated.
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