Dr. Rick Knabb
@DrRickKnabb
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Hurricane Expert at The Weather Channel
Atlanta, GA
Joined February 2009
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One of the strongest, largest, fastest-moving hurricanes is about to put onshore flow into one of the most storm surge vulnerable regions: Apalachee Bay. Only way to ensure survival from surge like this? Don’t be there when it happens. Evacuate as instructed tonight.
#Helene
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#Michael
has taken and changed lives, left communities in ruins, and even altered the coastline itself. Some of the landmass of St. Joseph Peninsula State Park, just offshore Port St. Joe, no longer exists. It takes powerful storm surge and waves to do this.
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1K
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Our moon is the largest in the solar system, relative to the size of the planet it’s orbiting. So it appears fairly large during any full moon. But during tonight’s biggest full
#supermoon
of 2020 it’ll be near perigee, less than 222,000 miles away instead of the average 239,000.
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No one, I mean no one, knows if
#Irma
will strike U.S., but we have time in case it does. Shop for supplies this weekend while lines short.
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I desperately wish the forecast hadn’t become reality. Rapid intensification to cat 4 or 5 right before landfall is the hurricane scenario we’ve always dreaded the most. Shelter like you would for a tornado!
#Ida
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Eye diameter of
#Ian
about 35 miles across, a larger hurricane after Tue night eyewall replacement cycle. Entire extent of hurricane force wind field of Charley 2004 would fit inside Ian’s eye. This will produce a much wider swath of damaging wind, storm surge, flooding rains.
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Staggering
#Dorian
numbers. Gusts to 220 mph. Storm surge 18-23 feet. Pressure 910 mb. And slow 7 mph motion is only going to get worse - maybe down to zero at times. Can’t think of many weather scenarios worse than slow-moving cat 5 over populated area.
3 PM EDT Tropical Cyclone Update: Catastrophic Category 5
#Dorian
moving across Great Abaco.
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Tornado fatalities in large buildings like warehouses, factories, & schools can be brought down to ZERO going forward. Let’s change building codes & make it law for these structures to have safe rooms. We can affordably provide near-absolute protection in the strongest tornadoes.
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We can have zero fatalities from
#Irma
in the Florida Keys if everyone still there evacuates with the time remaining tonight!
@NWSKeyWest
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Friends in Texas and Louisiana, let’s dedicate ourselves to not driving cars onto water-covered roads or around barricades during
#Harvey
.
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Often forgotten hurricane supply: cash, get it now. When power goes out, ATMs and credit cards won’t work.
#Irma
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In many ways
#Dorian
is an even worse hurricane today than yesterday. Forward motion 24 hours ago was 7 mph, now essentially zero. A stationary major hurricane over low-lying populations is the worst. Also it’s a bit larger now and high waves extend much farther from center.
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Inner eyewall lightning outbreak before collapsing, new outer eyewall of
#Ian
taking over, so staying at current intensity a while, might weaken. Then could restrengthen before landfall. If not, slightly weaker, slow-moving majors produce massive surge, long duration wind & rain.
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Do not operate a generator indoors when power goes out during a hurricane. Carbon monoxide poisoning can wipe out entire families.
#Harvey
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Continue to stay away from Gulf, bays, all salt water bodies along Florida Gulf coast. Water coming in quickly after center of
#Irma
passes.
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If you don’t live in an evacuation zone or mobile home, identify someone who does and plan to be their evacuation destination.
#Irma
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Why do Carolinas and Texas have nearly stationary tropical systems? They’re trapped under massive, deep-layer ridge dominating eastern 2/3 of the country. No, they’re not strong over land, but they have onshore moist flow, upper-level outflow. No steering and no shearing.
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We have today, Sunday, Monday and some of Tuesday to prepare for life-threatening wind and water of
#Milton
coming to Florida peninsula from Gulf side. Could be a major at landfall sometime Wednesday. Evacuations for surge and wind (like for mobile homes) a strong possibility.
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This
#hurricane
threat to
#Hawaii
is real and significant. Don’t assume we’ll catch a break like so many times before.
#Lane
might not weaken as fast as forecast. Its core might not pass offshore. Prepare for direct hit, and life-threatening water and wind even if not direct hit.
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Time to stop taking photos of low water in Naples area! Life-threatening opposite coming fast as
#Irma
eye passes! Get away from the water!
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When models start suggesting tropical cyclone development many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it’s about to get busy overall for September.
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Evacuation motivation: Slow forward motion -> long 2-day duration of
#Ian
winds when help might not come if you need it -> excessive rain adds to flooding, to heights that could exceed surge inundation forecast in evac zone -> blocked roads in aftermath, help also might not come.
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We should stop calling systems like
#Nicole
a “subtropical storm” and use “hybrid storm”. Just like a hybrid car, which people understand, it runs on two kinds of fuels - warm water and temperature contrasts. And being a hybrid car or hybrid storm doesn’t make it less dangerous.
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Still precious little time to evacuate as instructed by local officials if you haven't yet. You don't have to go far, just a few miles to get out of storm surge zones and all mobile homes, and into a structure safe from water & wind. Your life could depend on that decision.
#Ian
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There is no need to cancel any planned trips you may have to any islands in the Bahamas that were not impacted by
#Dorian
. Grand Bahama and The Abacos were devastated and need help, but otherwise, cancellation of trips to the rest of the country will further hurt their economy.
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I don’t usually tweet pics of my pets just to get likes cuz they’re so darn cute. Then again I’m not totally above that sort of thing either. Abby and Chloe wouldn’t go out to do their business during remnants of
#Delta
, too wet. Today wouldn’t come inside cuz perfect day to tan.
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Congrats to Savannah GA, Tallahassee and Melbourne FL, and Portland Maine... you’re among the fortunate ones that didn’t quite experience tropical storm conditions this year! Yet. This was caused by 14 storms, with 12 making landfall in U.S., including Teddy winds in Maine.
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Anyone telling you they know for sure the center of
#Irma
will miss Florida doesn’t know what they’re talking about. No one knows for sure.
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Many people have the resources and ability to evacuate, and I hope they go as instructed by local officials. Many can’t get themselves out. Let’s do all we can to help them. Let’s go get them. Help someone personally and directly, or call local officials for help.
#Ian
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#Michael
could be one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the Florida Big Bend and Florida Panhandle region. We only have today and Tuesday to complete life-saving preparations at the coast and inland. Evacuate as instructed from storm surge, and shelter smart from wind!
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Pressure and max winds of
#Milton
similar to Rita 2005 at its peak. Rita went thru eyewall replacement and encountered shear, coming ashore a couple days later as barely cat 3 by wind… but still produced devastating 15-ft storm surge that went miles inland.
#GetEverybodyOut
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Scary, historic
#Beryl
. We’ve seen rapid intensification, cat 4 and 5 hurricanes before. Southern Windward Islands have been struck before. Just not this insanely early in season. Ivan in Sep 2004 took dozens of lives there. Please find strongest possible shelter by tonight.
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Here’s the science behind how wearing masks lessens the spread of
#COVID19
, plus we bust a myth about masks during
#WUTV
on
@weatherchannel
.
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Three days prep time for
#Milton
gives chance to get critical supplies (including giving to those you know who don’t have the resources) and to plan for possible evacuation - including helping those who can’t evacuate on their own to have a plan and destination.
#GetEverybodyOut
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#Kenan
was a meteorological bomb but didn’t need 24 hours. Central pressure decreased by 24 mb in… just 9 hours! 10 pm last night thru 7 am today: 999 to 975 mb. Dropped 38 mb in 24 hours ending 1 pm today to 972 mb. Hurricane-force low over water, hurricane-force gusts in Mass.
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Yes, good news that intensity of
#Florence
has come down, to lessen wind damage somewhat. But forecasts for life-threatening storm surge and rain-induced flooding have not changed! Larger size and slower forward motion as it comes ashore are bad news. Still expect power outages.
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Inches away from
#Beryl
tying another record. Max winds set at 155 mph, cat 5 threshold 157, and its latitude at 8 pm was 13.4 N, same as Matthew 2016 as southernmost cat 5 in Atlantic basin records. This storm is so out of bounds, or here at least maybe worthy of a VAR check.
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What’s keeping me up? Possibility of very slow-moving
#Dorian
spending way too much time over major metros in Florida. Major hurricane? Bad. Also a slow mover over densely populated areas? Worst kind of hurricane. Hate the “slow” category. Get supplies for long-duration event!
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5 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record by wind are Allen 1980 (190 mph), and (all 185 mph) Dorian 2019, Wilma 2005, Gilbert 1988, 1935 Labor Day. In all those years, number of storms by today's date was fewer than so far this year, except for 2005. History teaches, buckle up.
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Something for all to do even more often is emphasize watches & warnings outside cone. Landfall location of center of
#Ian
was in cone on every advisory. U.S. watches & warnings issued starting Sunday for life-threatening wind & water were both in & out of cone on every advisory.
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Global model ensembles very useful to show how no one… along any coastline of eastern Gulf, entire U.S. East Coast, and anywhere inland along and east of Appalachians… is off the hook for eventual impacts from TD 9. Some of these model solutions are disturbingly slow moving.
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GFS has more ensemble members close to peninsula. 11 pm cone changes? Not just potential shift to east, but will
#Ian
be even more of a
#CategorySlow
near FL peninsula Wed and Thu? Increased chance of widespread, major water impacts there from storm surge and rain-induced floods.
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Answering some of your questions, here are important things to NOT do as
#Michael
approaches. Don’t “vertically evacuate” from storm surge in a high rise. Don’t tape windows. Don’t use candles in power outage. Don’t run generators indoors. Don’t drive onto any water-covered road.
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State of emergency in Florida for
#Irma
means government officials are allocating resources. Residents, you need to get yourselves ready.
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During a power outage, don’t run generators indoors due to carbon monoxide, and use flashlights, not candles that pose fire hazard.
#Nate
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Along the Florida Panhandle coast this past weekend, the weather was perfect, and the beach and water were exceedingly beautiful and nearly deserted... except for some body-surfing Manta Rays! The group put on performances about once per hour.
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While
#Maria
has intensified very quickly, Wilma 2005 was still faster: cat 1 to cat 5 in less than 12 hours vs Maria about 15 hours.
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This is why I didn’t push for 7-day track forecasts when I was
@NHC_Atlantic
director. The
#Grace
and
#Henri
5-day forecasts were tough enough. 7-day ones would’ve been even farther off and taken even longer to catch up to model changes. If you think a 150-mile shift is big…
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#95L
will soon be a storm, and chances of a hurricane or even major are fairly high too. Current conditions & history in this region & time of year tell us the northern Caribbean (for Fri into weekend), and Gulf, East Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda (for next week) should stay updated.
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Key race alert. Could a system way out in the eastern subtropical Atlantic become the 29th storm of the year that passes the record 28 in 2005?
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Some have referred to
#Fiona
becoming a post-tropical cyclone tonight as a “downgrade”. Radius of maximum winds about 100 miles, so it’s ginormous. Minimum central pressure 933 mb. Max sustained winds 105 mph. “Downgrade” is not the word I’d be using to describe this storm.
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One of the longest Atlantic recon plans of the day you’ll ever see. How fortunate we are for these resources. Throwing everything we’ve got into/around
#93L
starting Sun am. Simultaneous NOAA/Air Force flights into it, NOAA G-IV jet around it. Crews getting ready, so should you.
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We generally think of 2005 as the overactive, nonstop season. But after Dennis and Emily, at least there was a month break between hurricanes before the peak of season majors. Intraseasonal variability is a real thing. Even if a sizeable break after
#Beryl
, peak will be busy.
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Rapid intensification right before landfall… the worst. Life-threatening wind, storm surge, and flooding rains… starting in Tuxpan with wind and rain spreading inland over mountainous terrain.
#Grace
is first major of the season. Hoping our friends in Mexico stay safe.
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These numbers could change in post analysis. Might have become hurricane earlier.
#Otis
eye obscured just before landfall but winds didn’t necessarily weaken much. Little difference between high end cat 4 and cat 5 anyway. Damage & human toll we already know are devastating.
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If you’ve been told to evacuate and officials say it’s still safe to go, then go! Even if you survive the storm surge, a big if, you’re also risking your life “riding it out”, as you could be isolated by flooding, without power, and help can’t come if anything happens.
#Florence
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It’s almost getting easier to just circle areas where tropical cyclone formation is NOT possible in the next five days. Sheesh.
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Landfall of
#Fiona
at 3:20 pm on SW tip of Puerto Rico, with cat 1 wind intensity 85 mph, is not even close to being the end of the danger. Remainder of event in Puerto Rico will be an even longer duration of torrential rains, floods and mudslides through at least Monday night.
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A little hurricane hunter air traffic control required tonight. NOAA flying at 12,000 feet, Air Force at 5,000 feet, both confirming
#Isaias
strengthening over central Bahamas. Not shown, the NOAA G-IV jet has also been flying around the storm to get more data for track models.
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Don’t infer
#Milton
will be weakening at landfall. Forecast intensity for 7 pm Wed is at a point slightly inland. Forecast implies cat 3 landfall so plan for possible cat 4. Also plan for possibility it doesn’t go down middle of cone. Tampa Bay among many possible landfall spots.
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No one from Texas to Maine is off the hook for potential direct effects from
#Irma
. Use the luxury of time, more than a week, to prepare.
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One scale will never convey all hazards. Eliminating wind scale won’t hide obviously weaker storms with life-threatening water. Also, please, no more scales to add to confusion. Instead of trying to categorize a storm, enhance location- and hazard-specific warnings and decisions.
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#Ida
hurricane watch issued on advisory 3, intensity forecast near landfall was top-end cat 2. That category got way more attention than possibility it gets stronger. We need Major Hurricane Watch when cat 3+ possible, Major Hurricane Warning when cat 3+ forecast (advisory 6).
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#Milton
won’t be only a Gulf coast event for Florida. Strong, damaging, even life-threatening winds could occur in some farthest inland locations and all the way to Atlantic coast. Coastal & inland areas will risk rain-induced floods, and even Atlantic coast could get some surge.
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Next 5 days obviously pose extreme danger to the southeast coast, and we must prepare for landfall of a major hurricane. The five days after that don’t look good either.
#Florence
will probably still be over or near eastern U.S. 10 days from now. Slow mover = inland flood!
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Ever had a flat tire? Do you know how to change your tire? Well,
#Sam
did and Sam does. Ran over a nail or something in the central Atlantic this time last night, but convection has since blown up around a new eye that’s a bit larger than the original. Could reach cat 4 again.
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Hurricanes can make up for lost time in a real hurry. The stutter step in strengthening is over, unfortunately still leaving
#Ida
with a full day over very warm waters. Once an eye clears out like this on visible it’s quite feasible to go from current cat 2 to cat 4 in a day.
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This isn’t going to be like past western FL panhandle/AL majors like Dennis, Ivan, Opal, Eloise. And it’s not like Hermine, Kate farther east but weaker.
#Michael
will make new history for central Panhandle, Big Bend. Some of you could get water and wind worse than ever before.
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Enjoy your hurricane-landfall-free Labor Day weekend, hasn’t always been that way in Atlantic. Dorian was only a year ago. Hermine 2016 was first Florida hurricane landfall in 11 years since Wilma. Then Labor Day hurricane of 1935 had lowest pressure ever for US landfall, 892 mb.
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Heads up Mississippi! Just because landfall likely to be in Louisiana doesn’t mean you’re not at risk. Tropical storm & storm surge warnings, big risk of rain-induced flash flooding in coastal areas. Wind, tornado and flood risk spread northward thru state after landfall.
#Ida
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If your skies are clear tonight, you gotta go outside and look east to see Mars with the naked eye... you can tell which one has the orange-ish color and is brighter than everything else. Mars is closer this month than until 2035. If you say geeky I say cool. Well, it’s both!
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I despise slow-moving tropical cyclones, and
#Lane
will be another one for the next 2-3 days. All Hawaiian Islands are on the stronger, wetter side of the hurricane, and the terrain will enhance rainfall and bring water and debris downslope. Potential flooding disaster.
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#Irma
is expected to be wider than Andrew and Charley when it affects Florida, so it could cause greater storm surges over larger areas.
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This hybrid system is candidate to add to historical database after the fact as subtropical storm. There’s operational discretion on handling such systems in real time but it’s borderline non-frontal, weak shear inside cutoff low, & powered in part by relatively warm Gulf Stream.
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Don’t let the current lull in Atlantic activity fool you. Last year there was nothing for a month between Elsa and Fred during July 10-Aug 10...and then Ida. In 2019, nothing between Barry and Chantal during July 12-Aug 19… and then Dorian. We still expect a busy peak of season.
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Making sure my family is
#HurricaneStrong
must account for a new member. We recently brought home Abigail, our 8-week-old Cavachon. Pet lovers remember to plan for their medicines, food, and sheltering, especially if you might need to evacuate. We even have a pet first aid kit.
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Hurricane Ike, 2008. 6th costliest hurricane in U.S, history, $30 billion. 21 direct deaths in TX, LA, AR and 64 indirect deaths in Texas. Remnants killed another 28 people in the Midwest. Deadly storm surge, trees falling onto homes, carbon monoxide, electrocution. Category 2.
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If you’re not in an evacuation zone or mobile home and in a strong home out of flood prone areas, be someone’s evacuation destination
#Irma
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It’s been a very long time - and probably not ever since the NHC/CPHC wind speed probability products were introduced more than a decade ago - that essentially every location in the state of Hawaii has a greater than 50/50 chance of winds of tropical storm force.
#Lane
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That swirly going around northern part of circulation of
#Barry
is not the center of the tropical storm and is heading southwestward to the west side. Landfall of the actual center should occur sometime early Saturday, but life-threatening inland floods continue long after that.
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Intensification rate of
#Lee
has been impressive but didn’t exceed Wilma 2005 that went from 60-kt storm to 150-kt cat 5 in 24 hours.
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I get it, not everyone has money to stock up on supplies ahead of time. But I’d also hate to see people in desperation next week if stores are out of what they truly need to get through
#Florence
and any aftermath. If you have resources, help others today to be
#HurricaneStrong
:
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The catastrophic, deadly path of
#Michael
yesterday was not just a coastal event, with lives lost due to wind near and north of I-10 and extensive devastation. The storm surge and wind catastrophe in Mexico Beach reminds me of Katrina in Mississippi, with only foundations left.
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#Ian
gets even higher
#CategorySlow
rating near FL Gulf coast, forecast to move only about 4 mph, basically stalling Wed and Thu. More motivation to evacuate as instructed and have first aid kit. During long-duration storm, emergency help often can’t come. High end flood risk.
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For Nicaragua,
#Iota
not only strongest Nov hurricane landfall, also 1st year with 2 major landfalls, only 2nd year with 2 hurricane landfalls (1971). For Atlantic, farthest south landfall with winds 155+ mph, first year with 3 Central America hurricane landfalls south of 17N.
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Power outages can be deadly if we respond dangerously. Don’t run generators indoors. Carbon monoxide can wipe out a family.
#Matthew
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Life-threatening winds of major hurricane
#Ian
just hours away from Florida peninsula. Don't tape windows, don't stay in mobile home. High rises? Evacuate from those in storm surge zones, and even inland don't stay on higher floors, where winds can be a category stronger.
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Interesting… Thu eve Air Force will have 2 planes in the air: one goes into
#Lee
as usual, other does synoptic surveillance mission around Lee to drop sondes to improve model forecasts - similar to G-IV jet but lower altitude. Thanks to crews for all they do to help us prepare.
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Don’t be surprised if there are large intensity forecast errors for TD 2. Dennis in early July 2005 was an outlier major in an outlier year, and intensity forecasts were way too low. Here’s hoping 20 years of advancements helps us do better, and that if we’re off we’re too high.
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Helene is forecast as potential cat 3 at landfall, but we don’t know for sure it won’t get stronger. Intensity forecast for Michael 2018 was similar to
#Helene
when it was a couple days away in Caribbean. Prepare for a category stronger than forecast, hope for a category weaker.
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Rapid intensification day 1 in the books for
#Beryl
, 35 to 75 mph in 24 hr. Real-time verification: first advisory forecast valid 2 pm today was 45 mph, when it was actually 20 mph stronger. Don’t be surprised if 2 pm Sun it’s even stronger than latest forecast 105 mph.
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Officials saying don't wait until mandatory evacuations actually go into effect to leave. Farther you plan to go, sooner you should go, traffic backups Tue could be extreme. Only have to go far enough to be out of evac zone in structure safe from wind, not in mobile home.
#Ian
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It’s not out of the question that
#Laura
could reach cat 4 (130+ mph) prior to landfall. Already cat 2 at 105 mph and nearly a day left over water. Once rapid intensification begins like this it is hard to know how high it will go. Evacuate immediately as told by local officials.
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I asked family what they’d heard about the
#Ida
flooding. They said it was a “500-year flood”. Painful. Let’s stop using that completely misleading terminology. Incomplete historical records, our changing built environment, and a warming world make that terminology useless.
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A couple hours until winds of tropical storm force arrive on coast in Apalachee Bay, followed by hurricane, and for some, major hurricane conditions. Shelter like for a tornado, trees coming down! Mobile homes unsafe. Strongest wind event ever for Tallahassee residents.
#Idalia
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When pressure in Katrina reached 902 mb over Gulf the day before landfall, it was at the time 4th lowest on record in Atlantic basin. It quickly fell to 6th after 895 in Rita and record 882 in Wilma. Now it’s 7th, with Camille since reanalyzed to 900 mb. How fast history changes.
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Arrival of
#Florence
winds on Thu will begin a slow process, like a plane that’s landed but sitting on tarmac waiting for an available gate, possibly one farther down the concourse than you thought. Finish preps before bed tonight, then be in the shelter you’ll stay in for days.
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