Chris Black
@DownToBlack
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Live Sports Producer, Content Creator, Husband, Dad, Old Man Athlete
Joined January 2011
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Baseball is romantic, intoxicating & infuriating
It's a part of our lives for nearly every day for more than half of the year
I love the sport. I love talking about it with people who view it in all sorts of different ways
Thank you for reading & stay tuned for off-season 🧵
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Jay Jackson is 35 years old. Released 3 times.
This season, has pitched in minor league parks in Buffalo, Rochester, Gwinnett, Worcester, Allentown, Toledo & Scranton.
Tonight, in the 9th inning of a tie game inside Dodger Stadium… he got Betts, Freeman, Smith… 3 up, 3 down.
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From all of us
@Sportsnet
, from all of us
@BlueJays
fans, from all of 🇨🇦, thank you
@Ken_Rosenthal
. We feel the same way.
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Scottie Barnes: 20 years old
Auston Matthews & Mitch Marner: 24 years old
Vlad Guerrero & Bo Bichette: 23 & 24 years old
What a time to be a sports fan in Canada.
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Happy 41st birthday to Marco Estrada, a Blue Jay who deserves more recognition.
6 postseason starts in 2015-16: 41.2 IP (nearly 7 IP per start), 2.16 ERA, 34 K, 2 BB. Legendary line.
Jays lost 3 of his playoff starts. Here's how many runs they scored in the 3 losses: 0, 0, 0
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Scottie Barnes just became the youngest player in Raptors history with a 25+ point, 10+ rebound game.
Passing Chris Bosh & Tracy McGrady.
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I have texted Dave Ayres to fill in as a men’s league goalie roughly 4,128 times over the last 15 years. This is bananas.
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Vladimir Guerrero stayed in the dugout much longer than usual after the game today.
Cool moment seeing Varsho, on a new team, giving his teammate a pat on the back.
Been a frustrating month, but sometimes going through these valleys are moments that can bring a group together.
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Kyle Lowry is 34 years old and played 53 minutes in an NBA Playoff game.
Here's the list of people who have done that:
Wilt Chamberlain
John Havlicek
Robert Parish
Oscar Robertson
Bill Russell
Kyle Lowry
Yes, he's a hall of famer!
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Folks, I'm biased but...
Shulman guiding casual fans thru all the new rules..
Buck with absolutely great analysis (eg: Pitchers using PitchCom; Varsho throwing to 2nd)...
Do you realize how lucky we are as 🇨🇦⚾️fans?
Best "local" duo in MLB & best tandem in Canadian sports.
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Bo Bichette, this generation's Ichiro?
Unconventional swings... elite bat to ball skills... aggressive, attacking hitter.
107 hits in his last 70 games. Crazy stretch.
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Me, half an hour into watching Embiid & Harden flop and do rip thrus
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From 1998-2009, the Yankees won 4 World Series & were 414 games above .500.
Roy Halladay went 18-6 against them.
Fucking legend.
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How last night's catch was a perfect example of what makes Daulton Varsho MLB's best defensive outfielder.
Let's start here: his jump.
8 feet better than MLB avg; allowing him to cover 126 feet to make the catch (3rd longest distance tracked by a player making an out in 2024)
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#BlueJays
#NextLevel
⚾️🧵 Bo Bichette
I've got a story (more of a theory) about Bo & the Rays.
But first: Bo has 83 hits in his last 50 games. No Jay has ever had more in a 50-game span & you have to go back to 2017 to find last big leaguer to have more in a 50-game stretch 🔥
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Yusei Kikuchi has been the best pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last 30 days.
ERA 1.19 (1st)
FIP 1.75 (1st)
HR rate 0% (t-1st)
WAR 1.4 (1st)
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Apologies for the rudimentary split screen...
But you have to at least appreciate the effort...
First to Home: Zimmer vs Kirk
#NextLevel
#BlueJays
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Here's when I love stuff like Baseball Savant (
@SavantTips
):
Pearson pitches yesterday & I'm like, "wow, he's really getting far down the mound, and his arm slot looks really low (giving him almost like an upward trajectory to the top of the zone with his fastball)...
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Brandon Belt Last 26 Games:
.346 avg
3 HR
10 RBI
.485 on-base% (best in MLB)
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Blue Jays Starters This Season
Kikuchi 5-0*, 3.35 ERA, 37.2 IP
Gausman 2-3, 3.86 ERA, 42 IP
Bassitt 4-2, 4.28 ERA, 40.0 IP
Berrios 3-3, 4.91 ERA, 40.1 IP
Manoah 1-2, 4.71 ERA, 36.1 IP
*at conclusion of today's game
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Jose Bautista’s disdain for Steve Simmons is one key reason why he’s a top 5 Blue Jay of all-time.
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This Blue Jays season won't be submarined by weird RISP outcomes...
This Blue Jays season won't be submarined by weird RISP outcomes...
This Blue Jays season won't be submarined by weird RISP outcomes...
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This is legitimately one of the bonkier notes I've ever looked up....
25+ Hard Hit Balls in a Single Game
Statcast Era
Aug 15, 2015 - Red Sox (won 22-10)
Jul 31, 2018 - Nationals (won 25-4)
Sep 1, 2020 - Giants (won 23-5)
Jun 11, 2021 - Blue Jays (lost 6-5)
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Want to know what’s becoming a thing?
Jays fans in each and every stadium they play in…
Not just Seattle, Detroit & Cleveland..
But cities like Minneapolis, Pittsburgh & Cincinnati.
They travel exceedingly well.
Amazing & inspiring as a broadcaster.
#NextLevel
#WeTheNorth
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Daulton Varsho & Kevin Kiermaier:
1.9 WAR, 10 SB, 2.4 BsR, $12 million salary
Lourdes Gurriel & Teoscar Hernandez:
1.3 WAR, 2 SB, -0.8 BsR, $20 million salary
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Last 20 Games
*.367/.438/.772 slash (1.210 OPS)
*29 hits, 23 runs, 10 HR, 13 RBI, 10 walks, 9 strikeouts, 97mph avg exit velo
Most absurd parts about those numbers:
1. 13 RBI. Teams just terrified of pitching to him.
2. More Home Runs than Ks. Like WTF.
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Most Wins Against Teams Above .500 This Season
Blue Jays 49
Astros 49
Rays 48
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Kevin Kiermaier: Made this catch look easier than it was.
Catch Probability: 40%
Jump: 5.2 ft better than MLB avg
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If an argument needs to be made that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is doing something historic to win MVP......
#WeAreBlueJays
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Lowest Chase Rate - 2023 MLB
1. Davis Schneider 13.7%
2. Edouard Julien 15.7%
3. Juan Soto 16.0%
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2023 MLB Defensive Runs Saved Leaders
1. Blue Jays 13
2. Brewers 12
3. D'Backs 10
4. Royals 8
5. Rays 7
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Daulton Varsho: Catch Probability 25%... he now has an MLB-leading 11 "non-routine" outfield outs this season
(oh, and the jump was absolutely elite too)
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Shoutout to Lewiston, New York’s finest in attendance at the Jays game!
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4 years ago, John Schneider won a title and a manager of the year award for New Hampshire.
He managed Vladdy, Bo, Romano, Biggio and Espinal, among others.
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Blue Jays Starters - FIP Leaders - Minimum 50 career starts
Note:
@MStrooo6
is now at 3.63 after yesterday's start.
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The list of Blue Jays to hit 30 HR thru 88 games:
Jose Bautista (2011)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (2021)
That’s it. That’s the list.
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(long Raptors thread alert)...
So I wanted to figure something out...
Why were the Raptors a middle-of-the-pack NBA offence through 3 quarters, a top 5 unit in the 4th quarter, and then the league's absolute best in crunch time?
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Gausman-Manoah-Berrios-Stripling is definitely a rotation that could win a World Series
Romano-Bass-Garcia definitely a backend of a bullpen that could win a World Series
Springer-Vlad-Lourdes-Kirk-Teo-Bo-Chapman definitely a lineup that could win a World Series
Good Vibes
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Out of 51 players averaging 20+ pts per game this year, the 6'7, 240-pound Scottie Barnes ranks 44th in free throws per game & nearly everyone below him is a primary 3-point shooter.
Barnes deserves more respect from NBA refs!
This is what Darko Rajaković's tirade was about:
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How good is it that current Jays players are seeing the city like this?
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#BlueJays
Mini ⚾️🧵
Best vibes of the season in one play?
Best vibes of the season in one play.
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Third Base Comparison Since May 27
Jose Ramirez
.342 On-Base, .867 OPS, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 2.0 WAR
Matt Chapman
.360 On-Base, .929 OPS, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 2.2 WAR
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30.4 feet/second sprint speed (elite)
Jump 6 feet better than MLB average
Covered 92 feet in 4.7 seconds
Kiermaier's first 5-star catch this season (<25% catch prob)
15% catch probability
Maybe this says it best: By catch probability, a top 5 catch in Kiermaier's career
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Thought this was interesting:
Blue Jays pitching induced more groundballs to third base than any other team last year (420).
On a player-level, Ryu induced an MLB-high 73 & Kikuchi 10th most (55).
This trade is a wonderful fit.
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Currently in a playoff spot: Minnesota (31-31)
Currently 1.5 games out of a playoff spot: Toronto (35-28)
Abolish Divisions in Major League Baseball.
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50+ Points, 3+ Steals, 3+ Blocks
(Since ‘83-84)
Michael Jordan (3 times)
Hakeem Olajuwon
Dirk Nowitzki
Anthony Davis
@FredVanVleet
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6th time in Jordan Romano's career going 2 IP...
First time he's done it without giving up a hit.
Great job tonight. He's an elite reliever folks.
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Lowest ERA
Blue Jays Relievers - Franchise History
Tim Mayza (2023) 1.07
Aaron Sanchez (2014) 1.09
B.J. Ryan (2006) 1.37
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Which Caleb Martin flagrant do you prefer?
Image
#1
: The push when Barnes is elevating
Image
#2
: The elbow push when Barnes is dangerously falling into crowd?
#WeTheNorth
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#BlueJays
⚾️🧵
Last night, lost in all the late-game craziness was a very encouraging debut by Genesis Cabrera
This is about a current Jays lefty, former Jays lefties & something the Cardinals really haven't done well this year.
Let's start here: Great results vs lefties!
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Dating back 9 months, Bo Bichette ranks 2nd in MLB in Wins Above Replacement
Wins Above Replacement
Last 9 Months
Aaron Judge 5.7
Bo Bichette 4.9
Mike Trout 4.2
>Bichette: .351 avg, 17 hr, 60 rbi, .952 OPS in 90 gp
This isn't a blip. This isn't unsustainable. He's a superstar
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Since returning from injury & a stint at Buffalo,
#BlueJays
Cavan Biggio ranks top 25 in MLB On-Base Leaders (.381, 24th) & has the lowest chase rate in the entire league (19.9% - fangraphs, 15.1% - savant).
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Respectfully, if he felt like he was doing nothing wrong, he & his coach wouldn’t have done the handoff like they were buying drugs on a street corner with their backs to the field
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Alejandro Kirk
Since All-Star Break
.433 average👀
3 HR, 6 RBI
.485 on-base👀
1.252 OPS👀
12.1% strikeout rate👀
88.7% contact rate👀
👀denotes team-leading
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Ricky Tiedemann
#BlueJays
⚾️🧵
This is about believing the hype, swag, (un)reasonable expectations, modern pitch usage, a near-unique delivery, historical comps & what's left to work on.
Let's start here: Prospect Rankings
33rd in MLB (1st in Org)
8th-ranked pitcher (2nd LHP)
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One year ago…
Two popular, widely-held beliefs in Jays twitterverse:
1. Berrios contract absolutely horrible
2. Bo Bichette can’t be Blue Jays shortstop going forward
My takeaways:
Pro sports are really hard.
Progress isn’t linear.
Baseball not suited to insta-takes
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Short
#BlueJays
⚾️🧵 on the Chris Bassitt signing, ending with a thought or hypothesis on the Blue Jays catchers.
Let's start here though: Bassitt brings the best sinker the Jays have had since Sanchez/Stroman.
It's a great pitch.
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Jordan Romano Last 3 Seasons:
14-6, 61 Saves, 2.03 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.4 K/9
His 85% strand rate is the best in baseball among relievers with 100+ IP since 2020.
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Only 10
#BlueJays
Starters have ever posted an ERA of 3.01 or lower in a season:
Dave Stieb
Jimmy Key
Juan Guzman
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
@Ricky_Ro24
Aaron Sanchez
Robbie Ray
@Alek_Manoah6
@RossStripling
Bravo Ross. What a list to join.
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Idea: Braden Halladay, wearing one of his dad's jerseys, throwing out the first pitch on Friday.
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This is one of those plays that Daulton Varsho makes look way easier than it actually was.
*5% catch probability
*Jump 10 feet better than league average
Give this man a gold glove.
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Blue Jays 2016 Postseason Home Runs at the Rogers Centre
Alternative Title:
Yes, Home Field Advantage is Awesome.
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Alek Manoah Last 4 Starts
IP 28.1
ERA 0.95
WHIP 0.78
K / BB 27 / 6
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Blue Jays pitchers are going to love this move.
3-time gold glover makes it look easy out there.
///
Defensive Runs Saved
MLB Leaders Since 2017*
1. Mookie Betts 81
2. Andrelton Simmons 79
3. Matt Chapman 78
4. Nolan Arenado 71
5. Kevin Kiermaier 68
*Chapman's rookie season
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NBA Players Averaging 20/5/5 This Season:
Durant, LeBron, Curry, Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Morant, George, Butler, Harden..... and
@FredVanVleet
Toronto Raptors To Average 20/5/5 In Any Season:
Vince? No. Kawhi? No. DeMar? No. Lowry? No.
@FredVanVleet
(2021-22)
#VanVleetAllStar
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Posting my favourite
#Celtics
Game 6 flops this afternoon....
Starting with 6'8", 250lb Daniel Theis... who takes a forearm to the bicep, which causes his head to snap back violently like he just got jabbed by Roy Jones Jr.
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Justin Verlander enjoyed Alek Manoah’s inning as much as the rest of us.
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Overhead angle of Kevin Kiermaier's baserunning yesterday...
So good.
Jays are going to be a top 10 baserunning team this year for the first time since 2015.
#BlueJays
⚾️🧵focusing on an aspect of the game the Jays are hoping to improve upon & their moves this offseason reflect that hope.
Not defence tho, talking baserunning.
Let's start here: Daulton Varsho was a top 50 baserunner last year according to fangraphs.
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It took less than an hour for the thing I was most excited to happen... to happen.
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Daulton Varsho: 10 HR, 30 RBI
Gabriel Moreno: 1 HR, 17 RBI
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One month ago, Brandon Belt had a .235 on-base%....
Since? He has the best on-base% in Major League Baseball (.484)
#MVP
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Marcus Semien: The first Blue Jays position player to win a Gold Glove since
@VernonWells10
in 2006.
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Roy Halladay: 15 shutouts in 287 starts with the Jays
Jays Starters Since: 15 shutouts in 1,296 games
Legend.
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TOR v BAL 9th Inning
Rutschman v Mayza
Rutschman
99mph off bat
47% Hit Prob
28.3 sprint speed
4.6 sec home to 1st
Bichette
1.33 second exchange
70mph throw (insane from that body position)
Unreal play made more unreal by stakes & situation.
Bichette's best play ever?
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The Horwitz walk in the 9th inning was the longest plate appearance by pitch count of any hitter against Emmanuel Clase in his MLB career.
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Most Total Bases - First 3 Games
Blue Jays History
Davis Schneider (2023) 15
Rowdy Tellez (2018) 12
J.P. Arencibia (2010) 11
Lloyd Moseby (1980) 11
Bo Bichette (2019) 10
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Bradley Zimmer got up to 29.8ft/s (30 is considered elite) going first to home in 9.99 seconds.
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Good morning.
Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette & Alejandro Kirk are all younger than Adley Rutschman.
Oh, and Alek Manoah is less than a month older.
It’s a good day to put these 2022 Orioles to bed isn’t it?
#BlueJays
#NextLevel
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Bo Bichette & Vladimir Guerrero elite 2-out, RISP at-bats...
The type of ABs that will definitely play in October.
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#NextLevel
#BlueJays
#RaysUp
🇨🇦⚾️🧵 on the hottest hitter on the planet, seeing the ball, having conviction, sitting on a pitch & the chess game of high-stakes baseball that makes it such an amazing sport, especially at this time of year.
Let's start here: Adam's reaction
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