Domenico Giannone
@DomenicoGiannon
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Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces. The inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity.
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP19377.The Drivers of Post-Pandemic #Inflation.Domenico Giannone @DomenicoGiannon @IMFNews @UW, Giorgio Primiceri @gprimice @NUEconomics @NorthwesternU.#CEPR_MEF #economics
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The simultaneous occurrence of tight financial conditions and soft economic conditions signals a recession. #economics #recession #finance #nowcasting #businesscycle. DP19483 Nowcasting recession risk # via @cepr_org
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Amazon Economists Tout New Model to Call Recessions in Real Time
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Finally, everybody can freely create nowcasts and call them nowcasts
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Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub
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Global trends in interest rates | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
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When Are Central Bank Reserves Ample? . By Gara Afonso, Domenico Giannone, Gabriele La Spada, and John C. Williams. #CentralBankReserves.
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Read more in our paper: Check out the conference details here:
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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
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With @gprimice, we show that post-COVID inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity.
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Monitoring Economic Conditions during a Government Shutdown
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Soft economic conditions without stress in financial markets can lead to false alarms about recessions. Our approach combines both signals to provide a timely and accurate nowcast of recession risk.
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Glad to see a new R package for dynamic factor analysis. I hope it will boost the use of this powerful tool for nowcasting, forecasting, and causal analysis.
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Global growth is at risk .IMF Global Financial Stability Report.
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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
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Call for Papers: Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods and Applications
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Check out the latest nowcast, updated every Friday.
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Economic predictions with big data: The illusion of sparsity | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
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A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
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Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics: Vol 34, No 3
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A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
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Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications
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@gprimice With output already weakened by these unfavourable supply conditions, any attempt by the European Central Bank to further mitigate the demand-driven inflationary pressures—to maintain inflation near its 2-percent target—would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery.
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Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
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Monetary and Financial Stability During the Coronavirus Outbreak
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Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications.
Call for papers, FRB Cleveland October 2022.
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“Had Economic Alchemy won the case, it could have had a stifling effect in the economic world as Economic Alchemy could have prevented not only Now-Casting Economics but anyone else besides Economic Alchemy from creating nowcasts and calling them nowcasts.”.
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Lombardy: almost twice as many deaths than Wuhan, despite a similar population. The result of milder lockdown strategies?.
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Economic predictions with big data: The illusion of sparsity | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
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@gprimice @ChrisGiles_ @VMRConstancio 1/2 @ChrisGiles_ is also concerned by contradictory results in “academic circles”. We reconcile these seemingly conflicting views by showing that energy prices are largely driven by the same fluctuations in aggregate demand that have ultimately generated inflation.
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International Journal of Forecasting special issue: Central Bank Forecasting
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A New Perspective on Low Interest Rates Liberty Street Economics
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@alexbhturnbull Their conclusions are not necessarily in conflict with ours because energy prices are largely driven by the same fluctuations in aggregate demand that have ultimately generated inflation. This point was also recently clarified by @ojblanchard1:
1. Tweet triggered by some of the discussion following the publication of my new paper with Ben Bernanke. To clarify an important point. Finding that pre-pandemic era inflation was mostly due to relative price movements, especially the relative price of commodities, and that the.
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Hi, my account was hacked. Sorry for any inconvenience.
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@FerraraLaurent @F_Vend Thanks Laurent. In the paper we provide evidence of non-linearities that can be exploited to nowcast macroeconomic risks.
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Submissions: Papers should be sent to Conference Maker before June 1, 2022.
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