David Doney
@David_Charts
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Armchair economist, sci-fi fan, impressed by good data viz. Deep-state operator. Node in the vast left wing conspiracy. Facts have a liberal bias.
Joined March 2020
THREAD: The economy performs far better under Democratic Presidents, in terms of jobs, GDP, stock market, and lower deficits. Let's explore the history since WW2 in charts. First, job creation is 2.4 times faster under Democrats. 1/.
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When Carter started, 80.7 mil people had jobs and when he left, 91.0 mil had jobs, a 12.8% increase. Only LBJ had a larger % increase in a first term. Biden is 3rd with 2 months left. The top 5 are Democrats.
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š§µPresident Biden's economic legacy, in charts. First, the unemployment rate at 4.1% on average is the lowest (best) among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948. 1/
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At 4.1%, President Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948.
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Democrats historically are the party of fiscal responsibility. Deficits tend to fall under Democrats as the economy booms, and rise under Republicans as it goes into recession. Further, deficits are about half as much under Democrats as % GDP since WW2.
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@chrislhayes A horrible media failure. Dems passed the $3 trillion HEROES Act on May 15th; Republicans on the clock since. Media caught up in "bothsiderism" keeps saying "Congressional dysfunction" rather than "Republican obstruction." . It's doing a lot of damage.
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11 of 12 key economic measures are better than when Biden started, even adjusted for inflation ("real"). 9 of 12 better than pre-pandemic. I prefer comparing 2019 and 2023 full-year data, but this point-in-time comparison is helpful too. All data from FRED.
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@MarkJacob16 Democrats: The sun rises in the east. Republicans: The sun rises where Trump says it does. Media: There is debate about where the sun rises. Our politicians should compromise.
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America is incredibly prosperous. President Biden has the lowest unemployment rate and highest real (infl-adj) hourly wage on average among the last 11 presidents, for data back to 1964.
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@DeanBaker13 If media were serious about informing the public, they would have an āEconomic Briefingā link prominently displayed on their main page, with a standard set of slides and commentary, updated monthly.
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@stengel Democrats: The sun rises in the east. Republicans: The sun rises where Trump says it does. Media: There is debate about where the sun rises.
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š§µThe Economist did a cover article on how great the U.S. economy is. First, real (infl-adj) GDP +8% vs. 2019, making "America. the only big economy that is back to its pre-pandemic growth trend." 1/.
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Bidenās real GDP growth is now faster than Trumpās even pre-pandemic. 3.1% Biden Q1 ā21 to Q2 ā24.2.9% Trump Q1 ā17 to Q4 ā19.2.1% Trump Q1 ā17 to Q1 ā21.
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@LarrySabato Media working incredibly hard to help Trump. Perhaps they could cover the real story, that the economy under Biden 2022-2023 is better than 2019, Trump's best year, even adjusted for inflation?.
š§µState of the Union economic briefing; the key facts you need about the economy. First, monthly job creation over 50% faster in 2023 than 2019, the most comparable pre-pandemic year. 1/.
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On average, President Biden has the highest real (inflation-adjusted) wage and lowest unemployment rate of any president from LBJ to present (1964-2023). Workers never had it better.
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Economy much better in 2023 than 2019 pre-pandemic, even adjusted for inflation (real). So was 2022. Under Biden, unemployment lower, job creation faster, % age 25-54 working higher, real wages and net worth higher, stocks way up, uninsured down.
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š§µA few recent slides comparing Democrats and Republicans on the economy. First, Biden has the lowest average unemployment rate of any president from LBJ to present. 1/
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Real net worth of the bottom 50% households set another record in Q2 '22, reaching $67,524, up 10% from last quarter and up 60% since Biden started. This is driven by home prices, big wage gains, and full employment.
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Three key slides for understanding the economy:.1. Job creation faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice it. 2. Real hourly wages (purchasing power) avg. higher under Biden than any other president. 3. Unemployment rate avg. lower than any other president.
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@EricBoehlert @NycsonaPryanka Democrats: The sun rises in the East. Republicans: The sun rises where Trump says it does. Media: There is debate about where the sun rises. Media works incredibly hard to keep Republicans in the game.
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The U.S. has outgrown the G7 economies, while experiencing about the same inflation rate.
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Biden is now officially tied with LBJ as the president with the lowest unemployment rate, at 4.17% on average, for data back to January 1964. Biden is also the president with the highest real wage; that is unlikely to change when we get the inflation data later this month.
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@GregTSargent Defense: Sympathy, not shifting blame. Immigrants less likely to commit crime than natives and should not be smeared; we are nation of immigrants. Offense: Immigrants essential to economy in aging country; key to why outperforming world. Legislation required; Trump blocking.
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The Harris platform so far, with drop downs for details on each proposal at the site.
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Under President Biden, workers have both the highest real (infl-adj) hourly wage and lowest unemployment rate among the last 11 presidents. We've never had a better place on the "prosperity matrix."
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Just remember with all the takes on Biden pardoning Hunter:. Democrats have to be perfect, Republicans only have to be white. Trump pardons a bunch of criminals, gets re-elected. Biden pardons son, media will say end of Democratic Party.
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On average, Biden has the highest real hourly wage and 2nd lowest unemployment rate among presidents back to LBJ. Data updated through September; real = inflation-adjusted (Sept 2023 $).
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Since August of 2021, the unemployment rate has been below Reagan's lowest unemployment rate. Averages:.Reagan 7.5%.Biden 4.2%
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@tbonier As a private company, Twitter had every right to delete every Republican tweet and amplify the Democrat tweets, if they wanted to do so.
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š§µHere are 12 economic talking points for President Biden and Democrats, with charts in the thread on each. Repeat them so much you memorize them and share them often with our media and political friends!
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Monthly job creation has been faster under Biden than Trump, even comparing Trump pre-pandemic vs. Biden post-recovery (i.e., once jobs had regained previous peak in July '22.). Avg:.Biden overall 394,000/month.Biden post-recovery 270,000/month.Trump pre-pandemic 180,000/month
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Taking the first two charts together, Biden has the best combination of unemployment and real wages among the last 11 presidents. This is the best reading on the "Prosperity Matrix" of any modern president. 3/
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The Social Security tax cap is $168,600 in 2024. About 6% of wage earners make over that cap. If we remove the cap, only those 6% pay more in taxes, but we cover about 65% of the Social Security shortfall over 75 years, while reducing the budget deficit about $300B/year or 20%.
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@sahilkapur If the Republicans had both the House and Senate, they could have overturned the election results. Remember that if you want democracy, keep Republicans out of power.
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@POTUS When Biden took office. Unemployment rate: 6.4%.People with jobs: 143.0 million.Real net worth of bottom 50% family: $42,100 . Today:.Unemployment rate: 3.7%.People with jobs: 152.7 million.Real net worth of bottom 50% family: $67,500.
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@POTUS 50 Republicans filibustered, and got help from 2 Democrats, Sinema and Manchin. Let's not forget who made sure it will be harder to vote in 2024, particularly if you're poor or a minority.
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So how does the latest data compare to pre-pandemic?. 65% Stock mkt . 56% Real net worth per HH, bottom 50%. 19% Real net worth per HH, 50th-90th. 7% Real GDP per person. 4% Jobs level. 3% Real hourly wages (~$1/hour). 3% Oil production . Real=Infl-Adj
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@sahilkapur @CBSNews @YouGovAmerica If people knew it would cause a recession, higher prices for food and hotels, and cost them thousands in wealth over a decade, they might have a different view. Will media explain the consequences?.
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@drvolts Democrats have to be perfect, Republicans only have to be white. John Kerry. was for it before he was against it. Media: Can't have anyone who changes their mind. Howard Dean. made an awkward scream at an event. Media: Can't have a President who does that.
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The real (infl-adj) hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers (the bottom 80% of the private sector) averaged higher under Biden than the last 11 presidents. In other words, workers had more purchasing power under Biden than other presidents, despite inflation. 2/
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Biden's agenda is far more popular than Trump's. Of 28 policies, nearly all of Biden's have over 50% approval, while most of Trump's have less than 50% approval. YouGov cleverly asked about the policy, without saying who was proposing it.
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š§µA few slides comparing Biden vs. Trump on the economy. First, Biden has the highest real hourly wages on avg of any president at $29.74/hr vs. $28.82/hr for Trump. Yes, workers have more purchasing power under Biden than Trump, despite inflation. Real=Infl-Adj. 1/
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š§µCNN released a transcript of the debate. Some observations. First, it's informative to put it in Word and highlight Trump's lies, which are nearly continuous. Here's an example on tariffs, a key plank of Trump's platform. 1/.
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@JohnKasich Stop it with the bothsiderism. The left-most Democrats want everyone to have Medicare and more generous Social Security, paid for by much higher taxes on the rich and corporations. The right-most Republicans want a dictatorship and non-whites shipped out of the U.S.
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š§µThe MSM created 4 fake crises (Inflation, Immigration, Housing, and Crime), which helped Trump get elected while hiding record prosperity. Here are slides explaining the counter-arguments to such misinformation, plus a few charts and links included for more details. 1/
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@MarkJacob16 1. Hourly wage growth has outpaced inflation since pre-pandemic. 2. Biden holds presidential record for highest real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wage on average. 3. Biden holds record for highest hourly wage, annual average (2021). Media wonāt talk about it.
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š§µMany of the Biden economic records, all in one place. The number of people employed full-time hit an all-time record in May 2022, 132.8 million people. 1/
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You can see the significant improvement in the unemployment rate here, which fell from 6.4% when Biden started to 4.1% as of October '24, the latest FRED data at the county level. Are you better off than 4 years ago? Obviously. 4/
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Unemployment situation has drastically improved during the Biden era, from an overall 6.4% in January 2021 to 4.1% in October 2024 (latest FRED data by county).
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The media worked incredibly hard to help Trump, creating fake crises in immigration, housing, inflation, and crime. It will be interesting to see how they negatively spin Biden's incredible record. 16/END.
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Even if you handicap Biden's job creation to start from June 2022 (when pre-pandemic peak regained) he's faster out of the gate than Trump for the first 17 months. Biden: +4.7 million jobs, +3.1% total or 275k/month. Trump: +3.3 million jobs, +2.3% total or 196k/month
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š§µBiden vs. Trump on the economy. The relevant frame is 2023 vs. 2019 pre-pandemic, as 2020-2021 distorted (mostly in Biden's favor). First, monthly average job creation is the most important measure of how the economy is doing. It was about 50% faster in 2023 than 2019. 1/
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@ewarren The top 1% could pay off the part of the national debt that matters, and still have 7 times the net worth of the bottom 50%.
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It's remarkable how low the unemployment rate has been under Biden:.āļøTwo years at 3.6% average. You have to go back to 1968-1969 for better. āļø2024 at 4.0% was lower than 82% of annual observations 1948-present. āļøPost-pandemic average 3.8% better than pre-pandemic average 4.0%.
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Best economy in our lifetimes. Media needs to admit it and stop lying with the doom & gloom narrative. Real = Adjusted for inflation. Fed having trouble slowing it down because of the massive #BidenBoom
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About 7 million more are working than pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. Even if you start measuring Biden there, and compare that to Trump pre-pandemic, Biden has had much faster job creation. 6/
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Biden has had much faster job creation than Trump, no matter how you slice & adjust it:. Monthly job creation, average in thousands:.354 Biden from Inauguration.240 Biden July '22 - Dec '24.180 Trump pre-pandemic.-57 Trump 1st term
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š„š„š„CBO with the 500-foot home run: It was financially easier in 2023 to buy what you bought in 2019, because incomes outgrew inflation. And it happened for all income groups.
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Biden's perfectly-timed immigrant surge is projected by CBO (the most credible source available) to add $65,000 per household to income over a decade ($9T extra GDP), while reducing deficits nearly $1 trillion. 7/.
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š§µDemocrats should make a strong economic argument for continuing and expanding their majority. Here are some key messages:. WSJ July 2022: Households are in the best financial shape in decades, with $5T more in bank accounts than pre-pandemic. 1/.
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@AdamParkhomenko @jessiwhiteside $3.7 trillion deficits under Trump = No Tea Party.$1.4 trillion deficit under Obama inherited from Bush = Tea Party.
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Americans also became the richest ever in terms of real (infl-adj) net worth, across the wealth distribution, in early 2022 under Biden. We're still way above 2019. This was from big gains in stocks and housing, plus pandemic savings and stimulus. 5/
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It's obvious we're better off than 4 years ago, as the pandemic recovery was still underway. But what about relative to 2019 pre-pandemic? Well, in fact most measures even adjusted for inflation were better in 2022 & 2023 than 2019. 10/
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Under President Biden, workers have the highest real hourly wages on average among the last 11 presidents. Despite inflation, workers have never been better off because wages have grown so very much. Merry Christmas!.
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Real GDP growth under Biden was a robust 3.0%, slightly faster than Trump pre-pandemic. GDP had regained it's pre-pandemic peak by the time Biden started. 8/
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@AOC Nothing will get done outside of reconciliation. Nobody even heard from Democrats when Republicans had the majority.
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@MZHemingway Except. it wasn't a hoax, as a Republican Senate investigation found. 1. Russia did interefere on Trump's behalf. 2. Trump's team knew about it and didn't tell FBI. 3. Mueller didn't exonerate Trump for obstruction. 4. Russia didn't need Trump to conspire. NYT:
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@Neil_Irwin @GailWaldby The media's obsession with inflation is the thing that worries me. We have 3.8% unemployment, rapid growth on record GDP level, America the richest ever due to stock and housing booms, plentiful jobs, and wages up 7%. But all we hear about is inflation.
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Recessions are a Republican thing. This is a big reason why economy performs far better under Democrats.
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@Mike_Pence 1. Social Security is a relatively minor fix. Reversing the Trump tax cuts and diverting equivalent $ to social security trust fund more than covers it for 75 years. 2. Serious about Medicare? Get a Healthcare Cost Commission up and running.
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Whitehouse blasts Manchin, and refutes his fact-free arguments. Statement from Press Secretary Jen Psaki via @whitehouse
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@JamesSurowiecki As of the end of September, 90% of Democrats had received at least one dose, versus 58% of Republicans.
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@PatrickRuffini Economy has done better under Biden than Trump pre-pandemic, even adjusted for inflation.
š§µA few slides comparing Biden vs. Trump on the economy. First, Biden has the highest real hourly wages on avg of any president at $29.74/hr vs. $28.82/hr for Trump. Yes, workers have more purchasing power under Biden than Trump, despite inflation. Real=Infl-Adj. 1/
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About 684,000 more died from Coronavirus than if we'd done as well as Canada per capita. It was Trump's job to protect us as president, and he lied, delayed, and set terrible examples on masking and vaccination (which he quietly did).
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@ChrisDJackson @djwellborn Democrats have to be perfect, Republicans only have to be white.
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Real (inflation adjusted) annual GDP growth averages 3.9% under Democrats, versus 2.4% under Republicans, a 1.5 percentage point difference. 2/
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People upset about inflation should realize it was global, wages outgrew it vs. pre-pandemic (we had more purchasing 2021-2024 than 2019), and that inflation is the Fed's job. The U.S. had comparable inflation yet faster growth than other advanced economies. 15/
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Violent crime rate has fallen under Biden, to below the 2019 level and far below the 2020 Trump Spike. 13/ .
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Three slides showing how awesome this economy is:.1: Job creation faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice it. 2. Tied with LBJ with lowest presidential unemployment rate. 3. Highest inflation-adjusted (real) hourly wage of any president back to 1964.
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@sahilkapur McConnell should have thought about the consequences of Republicans actually packing the SCOTUS in their favor, by blocking Obama's guy and racing to include their guy.
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The unemployment rate tends to fall under Democratic party presidents, while rising under Republicans. Since 1948, Reagan is the only Republican that saw improvement start to end of presidency. All Democrats better except Carter (no change). On average:.D -1.7%.R +1.8%
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Americans increased their real (inflation-adjusted) net worth from pre-pandemic Q4 '19 to Q1 '24 in all groups:.ā¬ļøBottom 50%: +61%.ā¬ļø50th-90th: +23%.ā¬ļø90th-99th: +6%.ā¬ļøTop 1%: +14%. Bottom 90% increased share of wealth, while top 10% flat to down.
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@JaneMayerNYer Perhaps they should start honestly explaining the economy, which is far better under Biden than Trump. That will start the journey to regaining their credibility.
š§µBiden vs. Trump on the economy. The relevant frame is 2023 vs. 2019 pre-pandemic, as 2020-2021 distorted (mostly in Biden's favor). First, monthly average job creation is the most important measure of how the economy is doing. It was about 50% faster in 2023 than 2019. 1/
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A secret about inflation is that it helps debtors with fixed payments, like homeowners and Uncle Sam. The debt to GDP ratio has fallen from the Trump peak, as nominal GDP has grown faster than debt. 9/.
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Biden has the second lowest unemployment rate on average of any president back to LBJ, for data 1964-today. He trails LBJ by only one-hundredth of a percent (1bp). Can we call it tied for best of any president?
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Over 60,000 projects underway thanks to funding in Biden's Infrastructure Law. That's a lot of jobs!.
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@SenSanders Top 1% can cover the national debt portion that matters and still have 7 times what the bottom 50% have.
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Reminder that the most important economic report in the past few years was this one, where CBO explained that purchasing power was greater in 2023 than 2019, as incomes outgrew inflation over that period, for all five quintiles of the income distribution.
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Stock market (S&P 500) return about 11% under Democrats versus 7% under Republicans. 3/
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@whstancil Biden should say stuff is cheaper than pre-pandemic in real terms, and let media go crazy explaining that heās right.
Hourly wages have outgrown inflation if properly measured from pre-pandemic (Feb '20). Let media know they are misleading their audience when they publish cost data without wages. Purchasing power (real wages) up about 3.7% since 2019. Stuff is CHEAPER in real terms! 10/
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Budget deficits have been lower under Democrats, averaging 1.6% GDP vs. 3.5% GDP for Republicans. 5/
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