David Song
@DavidJSong
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REMINDER:
Will now be hosting the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook on Wednesday at 10am ET.
Register Here:
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Join me to cover the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, February 14th at 8:15 ET.
Register here -
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USD/CAD forecast: Canadian dollar vulnerable to wait-and-see BoC
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FOMC Minutes:
'Participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained.
Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully
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FOMC:
'The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.'
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Seeing $USD strength following Powell's speech at the IMF with long-term Treasury yields on the rise.
Interested to see the reaction to the US CPI on tap for next week.
Keep in mind, the
@ClevFedResearch
Inflation Nowcasting model reflects sticky core CPI & PCE for October &
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#FOMC
Seeing a lot of discussions how monetary policy works with a lag so the Fed should pause.
But am I the only one that thinks the lag is evolving (becoming shorter) given the advances in technology & flow of information?
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RBA: The coronavirus outbreak overseas is having a significant effect on the Australian economy at present, particularly in the education and travel sectors. The uncertainty that it is creating is also likely to affect domestic spending.
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$USDJPY continues to trade within last week's range while largely tracking a downward trend, which aligns with the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (133.18).
Need a clear break above the range along with a move above the moving average to challenge the bearish trend.
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1
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Should be an interesting week for $USD with Fed rhetoric & NFP on tap, but I'm more interested in $JPY crosses for now.
A weekly chart of AUD/JPY:
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.
@PeterMehlos
Think the weakness we're seeing in
#gold
is another theme to keep an eye on.
Breaks to fresh monthly-high ($1291) but closes near the low. Not looking good as a head-and-shoulders still looks in play.
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1
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Join me for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 15min (10am ET).
Will cover the major event risks on tap for the days ahead and discuss key developments in FX markets especially in
#JPY
pairs.
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I wonder what's going on at the BoE right now. I would imagine Mark Carney is getting a ton of phone calls.
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6
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$AUDUSD bouncing back from the session low (0.6748) but can't say it's from the Caixin China PMI Services as the index slips to 51.6 from 52.0 in June.
Watching the RSI as it dips into oversold territory.
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1
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Join me for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 10min (10am ET).
Will do a brief overview of the BoC rate decision along with a preview of the ECB meeting on tap for tomorrow. Will also discuss the key event risks on tap for the days ahead as the opening range for
3
2
7
Anyone else watching $GBPJPY as it registers a fresh yearly high (177.15)?
January 2016 high (177.38) in sight as the RSI sits in overbought territory, with a break/close above 177.20 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the 179.70 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
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1
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Despite bets for a Sept. liftoff, the Fed Minutes sound pretty dovish given concerns surrounding China, weak oil prices and strong USD.
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Wondering why ECB's Draghi is delivering the dovish comments ahead of the
#FOMC
rate decision...
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But at the end of the day, seems as though the Fed is looking at a more standardized approach for 2016 as it stays on course to normalize.
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$Gold continues to approach the yearly low ($$1805) as it falls for the six day, while the RSI sits in oversold territory for the first time this year.
A close below the $1837 (38.2% Fib retracement) to $1843 (50% Fib retracement) region in $XAUUSD opens up $1812 (61.8% Fib
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Kicking off the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 15min (10am ET).
Will discuss key developments in FX markets ahead of the
#Fed
rate decision next week.
Register here:
Streaming here:
1
2
6
Starting the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 15min (10am ET).
Will discuss the BoC rate decision along with a preview for the ECB meeting. Will also cover key developments in FX markets.
Register here:
1
1
6
Wondering if we're going to see a quick rip and dip in $AUDUSD if the
#RBA
delivers a dovish hold. (Keeps OCR at 1.50% but offers a dovish forward-guidance for monetary policy).
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US CPI:
'The index for airline fares fell 3.6 percent in May, following a 0.8-percent decrease in April.
Over the month, the new vehicles index fell 0.5 percent, the communication index decreased 0.3 percent, and the recreation index declined 0.2 percent.
The indexes for
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USD/CAD struggles to test January high ahead of BoC rate decision
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1
6
$AUDJPY looks poised for a larger rebound as it clears last week's high (81.97), with the RSI flashing a bullish trigger. 83.00 on the radar.
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Join me for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 15min (10am ET).
Will cover the major event risks on tap for the coming days along with an overview of recent developments in FX markets.
1
1
6
$USDCAD could see form a bullish outside day if it closes near/at the high.
Looks as though the 1.3310 (50% retracement) area is acting as support ahead of the
#FOMC
rate decision with a move above last week's high (1.3428) exposing the 50-Day SMA (1.3504).
0
2
5
$USDJPY snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows as it continues to pull back from the weekly high (131.12).
Continues to reflect a downward trend which largely aligns with the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (134.25).
1
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$Gold prices looking a bit heavy up here esp. as the RSI struggles to hold above 70. My first downside region of interest comes in around $1298-$1302, but longer-term outlook remains constructive. Here's the forecast.
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Join me for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 10min (10am ET).
Will cover the key event risks on tap for the coming days as attention turns to the BoJ rate decision and the update to the US PCE Price Index.
Will also discuss recent developments in FX markets
1
2
6
.
@PeterMehlos
First oversold $RSI signal for
#oil
in 2019.
Wonder what OPEC is going to announce at their next meeting.
Until then, I'll be watching the oscillator as it pushes deeper into oversold territory.
0
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Kicking off the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar in 10min (10am ET).
Will look at the key event risks for the coming days as well as major developments in FX markets amid the recent comments from the BoJ.
Register here:
Streaming here:
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1
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$Gold snaps the weekly range following NFP. Need a close below 1328 to open up the 1312 to 1315 region.
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0
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Oil coming up against a key level. Waiting to see if the RSI will dip back into oversold territory.
http://t.co/1euqCktCOV
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Here's the link for the webinar recording.
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FOMC Minutes: ' Many participants observed that if uncertainty abated, the Committee would need to reassess the characterization of monetary policy as "patient" and might then use different statement language.'
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FOMC Minutes: 'Many participants suggested that it was not yet clear what adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate later this year;'
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My take: Fed will stay on course to deliver 3 rate-hikes in 2018 as 'market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months.' Wondering if markets will pay more attention to Average Hourly Earnings rather than headline NFP on Friday.
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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Clears October Range on Soft US NFP Report
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0
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AUD/USD Faces Australia Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
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0
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RBA: As a result, GDP growth in the March quarter is likely to be noticeably weaker than earlier expected.
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Fed's Powell:
'At this meeting we discussed issues related to slowing the pace of decline in our securities holdings.
While we did not make any decisions today on this, the general sense of the committee is that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of run-off fairly soon.'
1
1
5
FOMC Minutes:
'Participants observed that the continuing process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was an important part of the Committee's overall approach to achieving its macroeconomic objectives and that balance sheet runoff had so far proceeded
0
0
5
Easier to see on the weekly but looks like $Copper is trying to break/close below support after carving a double-top in the first-half of 2018. Should be interesting to see how it closes the week following the U.S. holiday.
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3
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Reverses Ahead of Monthly High
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1
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The uptick in Australia Unemployment to 5.2% from a revised 5.1% was accompanied by an uptick in the labor force participation rate, suggesting discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.
Wonder if that will be enough for the
#RBA
to avoid cutting the OCR.
0
1
4
FOMC Minutes sounding more cautious this time around. Noting oil, USD to hold down inflation for longer.
1
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5
USD/CAD 2022 high remains on radar as RSI holds in overbought zone
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0
5
Not sure if I would infer that the
#RBA
is all about employment now. I think all the major CB's are puzzled that inflation remains low even though unemployment is low.
Seems like CB's are hoping wage growth will pickup and drive inflation, but that hasn't been the story.
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FOMC: Reiterates 'the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate.'
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