David Baskin
@DavidBaskinBWM
Followers
7,763
Following
145
Media
282
Statuses
9,250
Company founder, financial pundit, sailor.
Toronto
Joined June 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
YouTube,YouTube
• 3044756 Tweets
#ยกน้ําหนัก
• 272768 Tweets
#เทควันโด
• 259859 Tweets
#8YearsWithBLACKPINK
• 203649 Tweets
Kursk
• 140788 Tweets
#HappySeungcherryDay
• 134619 Tweets
#띵동띵동_승철이_생일이다_문열어
• 133040 Tweets
CENTURY OF LOVE EP9
• 106109 Tweets
GIVE VINESH SILVER
• 95491 Tweets
#推しの子
• 56151 Tweets
#gangłysego
• 46122 Tweets
RED OUT
• 44630 Tweets
Japinha
• 43427 Tweets
Happy 8th
• 38981 Tweets
cheol
• 38726 Tweets
Augusto Akio
• 35506 Tweets
#湊あくあ生放送
• 34233 Tweets
8 YEARS WITH JENNIE
• 31635 Tweets
岐阜城北
• 30192 Tweets
END OF DREAM
• 28565 Tweets
Stefano Peschiera
• 28532 Tweets
#JO1ANNX
• 26156 Tweets
HAPPY BIRTHDAY XIAOJUN
• 22749 Tweets
Pedro Barros
• 22513 Tweets
ABOUTZU CONCEPT PHOTO 1
• 16514 Tweets
EIGHT YEARS WITH ROSÉ
• 14208 Tweets
せつ菜ちゃん
• 12656 Tweets
Ana Patrícia
• 10982 Tweets
引き分け
• 10541 Tweets
ポーランド
• 10128 Tweets
Bank of Canada will lower rates in June. The pain we are seeing in the bank earnings is nothing compared to what is coming down the road. Increasing number of credit card holders are paying just the minimum, a real sign of stress that will show up in lower consumer spending.
118
102
805
It turns out 10% of CDN families own 2nd homes. That's over 1 million families. When you die, that non-principal residence is "deemed" to have been sold at fair market value and you get taxed on the gain. So the new cap gains rate probably affects >10% of families. See link
164
115
716
$TD bank is down about US$8 billion in market cap today. While that is much more than any fine you could imagine, the reputational damage is real. Senior management looks like some combination of greedy and stupid, not what you want in a bank.
54
90
692
The 33% increase in the Cdn capital gains tax will of course discourage the formation of domestic capital just when it is needed most. I guess the gov didn’t notice that the Cdn new issue/secondary issue market has been as dead as the Raptors. This won’t help.
83
94
621
High interest rates affect Cdns very differently than Americans due to way mortgages work in the 2 countries. Most Cdns have variable mortgages or 5 year reset. Almost all Americans are 30 year fixed term. Many more Cdns will be economically injured by high rates. BOC must cut
168
50
507
In September, 2004, we were retained by an 81 year old man, who entrusted $1 million to us. During the ensuing 16 yrs he neither added to nor withdrew from his portfolio. This week, I will review his portfolio with him (by phone, sadly). Here are some interesting highlights.
14
53
364
@richard680news
Expropriate the businesses. Put the managers in jail and sue the owners into bankruptcy. This makes me ashamed to be a Canadian. It should make every Canadian ashamed. This demands immediate action by the Province.
8
35
339
who knew there was a contest for best looking money? Kind of like winning the title in a sport you never heard of. Go Canada!
$10 bill featuring Viola Desmond named world's best new banknote
6
60
290
@king_kaufman
@lopezlinette
He was also a drug addict while warning people about how awful drug addicts are. So why is anyone the least bit surprised?
10
14
227
Interest rates of 2% on $1 million = $20k/year. It is not very hard to imagine mortgage rates of 4% with the five year re-set on the typical CDN fixed rate mortgage. That doubles the non-deductible interest to $40k. Imagine a couple with household income of $120k 2/n
39
45
236
Canada, on the other hand, clearly shows that the Bank of Canada went too far and has caused a recession. Time to cut interest rates is now before the damage gets worse. Labour force participation is going down even as immigration rises.
111
24
241
@davidfrum
I read this book in 1969 while being tear-gassed for protesting the Vietnam War. Absolutely worth dusting off today.
11
48
219
One of the things driving the crazy residential real estate market in CDN cities is an obviously very low level of financial literacy on the part of buyers. With residential rents falling fast and housing prices rising, the ratio of price: rent is off the chart. 1/n
32
34
198
It appears that many Canadians believe that higher interest rates for longer will help solve our very big and very obvious housing crisis. They argue higher rates will drive prices down making homes more affordable, and perhaps, driving leveraged speculators out of the market 1/n
80
21
191
Canada is swamped with civil servants who cost more and do less. Here's my new newsletter essay:
Monthly Newsletter - February 2024 - Baskin Wealth Management
12
13
193
So I know this is crazy talk but what if the Federal Government just STOPPED ADVERTISING EVERYWHERE. Fire all the PR people and creatives. Just publish announcements on the government's OWN WEBSITE. Probably save at least a billion/year, maybe more.
23
10
144
BTW, my guess is that Gov of Canada is betting that lots of taxpayers will be stampeded into realizing capital gains in the next 8 weeks, creating a tax windfall. Just remember that every $ of tax you pay is a $ you can no longer invest and compound over time.
34
15
140
Absent gasoline and housing costs there is no inflation in Canada. Nothing the Bank of Canada does can influence gasoline costs - it is a world market. Raising interest increases housing costs. So any further rate increases at this point are counter-productive. 1/3
18
32
125
I was chatting with a 40 year old friend in Croatia yesterday. She will be vaccinated in March. Croatia has per capita GDP about 1/3rd of Canada. She was laughing in horror when I told her our projected vaccination schedule. We are officially an international laughing stock.
17
14
114
Canada imports about US$300 billion from the US. If the CDN$ is down about 10% year over year, that adds inflation of about US$30 billion or 1.5% of Canada GNP just due to exchange rate. Just adding a little salt to the wound.
8
14
105
I just met with a client who started with us in 1998. Since then $1.1 million has grown at 7.9%/yr net of all fees, to over $5 million today. Miracle of compounding capital in great stocks. $MSFT +534% $BAM +487% $BNS +377%. Water your winners, pull your weeds. Get rich slowly.
7
12
103
#Bank
of Canada cuts by 25 bps as expected. I would argue that 50 bps would have been better, but the trend of small drops will continue for the rest of the year. As GIC rates and bond yields drop, we expect to see money move towards high dividend stocks. Lots of +5% yields.
10
9
96
Time to back up the truck and buy some dividend payers, which have been driven into oblivion by rising rates. With inflation done in the US and Bank of Canada almost certainly finished raising rates, take a a look at $EMA.to $FTS.to $CU.to $ENB.to 1/2
15
4
93
We have convinced kids they need to go to uni or college whether they want to or not, and we have as a society devalued and stigmatized skilled blue collar work. We have lots of kids with useless degrees they don't want who would be happy plumbers or electricians. 5/n
10
5
86
It seems to us that those who eschew risk miss the chance to invest in the great companies that will continue to grow and compound capital into the future. Nobody knows what the next 16 years will bring, but sometimes looking backwards helps us see forward.
7
1
87
It continues to surprise me that you can get such great dividend yields in the boring CDN utilities, pipelines, telcos and banks. With GICs paying <1% why wouldn't you take a 4% or 5% tax-preferred dividend on $BCE.CA, $ENB.CA, $TD.CA?
12
8
86
It is not surprising that media folks are dunking on
#Canadian
Banks. After all, there are bank crises in Europe and the US; why should we be exempt? They are easy columns to write and carefully couched: "it is possible"; "perhaps"; "we cannot rule out". Weasel words. 1/n
16
12
85
$TD is not going broke and it is not going to cut its dividend but many managers may prefer not to explain why they own it. So, in the penalty box for a while. Expect some firings and some contrition. As the Oracle says, a lifetime to build your rep, ten minutes to lose it
7
4
82
Sad to say I got this one just right. Deficits farther than the eye can see, debt service costs rising as every bond matures and is rolled over at +2% higher rates. Justin turns out to be every bit as irresponsible as his father. Turns out the budget will not balance itself.
The current regime will of course, by then, be waving at us in our rear mirrors, having kicked the problem down the road to a government that will have no choice but to both raise taxes and reduce spending. History may not repeat but it sure does rhyme.
1
5
33
7
15
79
In 1982 I worked in the bad loans department of $BMO.CA. This was in the wake of the ultra-high interest rate war on inflation, when prime got up to 22.5%. My job was to call loans and put people out of business. In the fall of 1982, just before the bank's Oct. 31 year end...1/n
6
15
79
The most disappointing thing about the CDN Federal government is its inability to get anything important done. Pipelines, guns, vaccines, icebreakers, you name it. Long on excuses, terrific on apologies (Trudeau's core competence) but really short on JUST GET THE JOB DONE.
7
10
78
It's just amazing how fortunate those
#Bombardier
executives were to unload their stock at $5. Pure luck, can't imagine any other way that could have happened. $BBD.CA down 30% this morning to $1.24. Class B peasants left holding the bag.
9
15
76
Making the stress test more stringent is a good way to do it. Raising the insurance costs for mortgages by 0.5% might also work. Making some young couples mad now will save a lot of tears for them and the economy in the future.
15
3
74
@MaxLewisTV
@SouthBendFire
if they are anything like the raccoons around here they should have just given them a hose; they would have barbequed lunch and then put out the fire.
1
0
72
You can warn people about this until the cows come home but fear of missing out on home ownership will overpower most anything you say, and the constant price rises on homes over 20 years is tough to refute. So maybe government intervention is needed. 4/n
4
6
73
@vishalmisra
@Noahpinion
Imagine winning a Nobel prize AND having a daughter who is a 2 time Olympic gold medalist. Possible that Hungarians really are from another planet.
0
1
69
You have to hand it to the guys at $WEED. Not everyone could manage to lose $6 billion selling dope. Now they are about to be swamped by massive growth of legal marijuana growing and selling in the US. Do not walk away. Run away. The whole CDN industry is a dumpster fire.
4
5
68
All of this to say that the housing crisis is multi-faceted and about much more than interest rates. To sacrifice the rest of the economy in the hope that high rates will drive house prices down is, at least in my view, both narrow minded and short sighted.
21
0
63
For years personal finance guys argued against putting stocks in deferred tax plans like RSPs. That argument just got a lot weaker. Putting stocks in RSPs will allow you to harvest gains without getting taxed to death and reinvest with 100% of realized gains.
6
6
67
#BOC
would rather see the Canadian economy go into recession than risk inflation rising even a bit. With the housing component being the biggest contributor to +3% inflation, keeping interest rates high ensures that housing supply will remain constrained. 1/n
12
8
66
With Saudi pumping every barrel of oil it can, who wants to invest multi-billions to produce really expensive oil that environmentalists and First Nations are going to hate and try to prevent you from bringing to market? Oil sands are a sunset industry, get used to it.
11
5
62
I think
#inflation
in Canada is now just about done. Certainly there is no reason at all for Bank of Canada to increase rates. The only real inflationary components are beyond our control: Imported food, energy costs, and housing (which is of course made worse by higher rates).
23
5
64
What's the point? Over the last 16 years there have been lots of great reasons to sell any or all of those 7 companies. We let them ride. As the saying goes, water the flowers and pull the weeds. When you find a company capable of long-term compounded growth, don't let go.
1
4
62
Not many of us get to have a 100 year old parent, much less one as totally with it and capable as my quite astonishing father, Rabbi Bernard Baskin. He makes what I do on TV look like kids' stuff, which, from his point of view, of course it is. Don't miss it.
Where is God during this
#COVID19Pandemic
? Who better to ask than the very wise Bernard Baskin, a rabbi for 60 years (mostly in
@cityofhamilton
), who just turned 100. That's right. He was alive for the last global pandemic, the Spanish Flu. He's on
@TheAgenda
at 8/11pm tonight.
3
11
29
8
8
61
This speaks to the demand side of the equation, and all else being equal, lowering demand will reduce prices. But our real problem in Canada is inadequate supply and sadly, higher rates will only prolong that problem, and in addition will likely increase rents. 2/n
11
0
59
$WEED.CA has a market cap of $8 billion and is trading at 80x trailing revenue, not to mention losing $70 million last year. The worst thing that ever happened to the dotcom companies was when they had actual sales and could be valued. We know what happened next.
5
17
61
Lots of stocks have come in and out of this portfolio over 16 years but here are some of the unrealized gains as of today:
Brookfield Asset 513%
First Service Corp 203%
Alphabet Class C 212%
Apple 601%
JP Morgan Chase 277%
Microsoft 898% (cost of $24/sh!)
Visa Inc. 388%
3
3
58
While the Canadian Forces is dealing with its procurement issues maybe it could buy some uniform trousers which have zippers that don’t fall open so often.
7
11
55
@jbarro
In some places they have this thing called a train station sitting under the airport. You just climb on the "train" and it takes you downtown. No Uber, Lyft or cabs involved. Imagine.
2
0
58
Unemployment in US at 50 year low. When people are working they make money and spend it. Corporate profits go up. Share prices and dividends follow. Stop worrying so much about macro where nobody knows anything. Focus on the evidence, not the theory.
6
3
59
This
#Canada
Day I feel particularly lucky and grateful to have been born in a country that, in spite of everything, still has compassion, generosity of spirit, openness to others and reasonably competent, reasonably honest government. We stand on guard for thee. Happy Canada Day
2
2
59
Cdn oil producers and midstream companies are trading as if oil will never be above $40 again and no Canadian will ever need natural gas to heat their house. At some point sanity will prevail, and by then there may be a lot fewer smaller, leveraged players in the game.
6
6
57
Why, it was only 75 years ago that a Cdn bank last cut its dividend. So you never know. Meanwhile you can buy for example $TD at about 9x earnings with a dividend yield of 5% and a 25% percent discount from its 52 wk high. Quality on the cheap, which is how you get rich.
10
5
58
Here's a little retirement account we opened for a friend 11 years ago. Compounded return of 11.3% after fees. Started with $250k, $230k has been withdrawn and there is now $475k in the account. Compounding, as WB says, is the 8th wonder of the world.
3
2
56
How pathetic is the
#TSX
? On Aug 31/14 it closed at 15,625. In 49 months since then up a grand total of 375 pts or 2.4%. $S&P 500 up 45% over the same period. Time for Canadians to lose their home-country bias and get with the program.
9
11
56
One would hope that the smart buyer would look at that and say hmm, I can rent that condo for the rest of my life for about half of what it would cost to buy; let's try that for a while! Enough people recognizing this would take a lot of the froth out of the market 2/n
10
6
56
In Canada and US, remaining inflation is almost entirely the result of increased interest rates and the effect on mortgages and rent. Take that out and there is 0% inflation in US and close to zero in Canada. So the Bank of Canada is poised to make things worse. Don't do it Tiff!
23
11
57
@davidfrum
My client did not kill the deceased, and if it happens that he did, he was insane.
1
2
53
Suddenly interest goes from 16% of pre-tax to 33% of pre-tax, likely close 50% of post-tax. Not counting amortization, property taxes, insurance, utilities. What was a stretch at 2% becomes unaffordable at 4%. Which is tough for one couple but a problem if it is thousands 3/n
2
3
54
Today I am doing a portfolio review with a client who started a registered retirement plan with us 22 years ago. Compound growth of 8.1% net of fees has turned $200,000 into more than a $1 million. No kidding, compounding really is the 8th wonder of the world.
5
7
55
Last Federal election Tories blew their budget on the "Justin's just not ready" ads. Didn't really resonate with Canadians. Now they seem to be testing out "Justin - not as advertised". I am no fan of PMJT but guys, how about some policy and substance? A reason to vote FOR YOU
9
5
53
Huge segments of the population in other developed countries rent residential their whole lives; there is nothing wrong with it. We have a cultural bias towards home ownership. Rob
#Carrick
is fighting a noble battle against that; he is right, but it's an uphill struggle.
8
4
52
My first sail of the year selfie. Three or four weeks late but very welcome.
4
1
52
@CochraneCBC
@MeeganReadCBC
One reason that so few good people go into politics is this kind of crappy "gotcha" journalism. Does not advance the interests of Canada or the CBC, embarrasses Trudeau for no good reason and gives Trump a stick to beat us with. Well done all around.
3
12
51
If the generals coordinating Canada's vaccine logistics had been in charge of D-Day, Europe would have been recaptured some time in the 1950s.
8
2
49
$BAM knows the jewel in its crown is the huge private asset management business, mostly in long tail infrastructure assets. We have always contended that the potential for growth and accrual of significant carried interest is underestimated by the market 1/n
3
4
50
Very confused market today. Buy "Stay at Home" stocks or buy "reopening" stocks? Or maybe just buy the really great companies with terrific earnings that will make money whatever happens with COVID. Another advantage of thinking long: you don't have to answer the first question.
5
4
48
Not long before we will see a relief rally in the beaten down higher yield stocks. The pipes, utilities, telecos and banks are offering real good after-tax cash flow. It will not last forever.
8
3
49
The value of the portfolio today is $3,894,334. The money has almost exactly doubled twice, and the compound return including income and fees, has been 9.2%. With no money in and no money out the math is easy and not subject to distortion by time value or money value calculations
3
4
48
@Concern70732755
@AlexS1985V
This guy is almost single-handedly succeeding in making Canada a poorer, less capable, less successful country. The sooner he and his henchmen are cast into outermost darkness, the better.
3
4
47
“there are a lot of bleeding hearts around who just don't like to see people with helmets and guns. All I can say is, go on and bleed, but it is more important to keep law and order in the society than to be worried about weak-kneed people” The Other Trudeau, 1970.
5
4
47
If Trudeau was just another MP from just another riding, does anyone believe that the leader of his party would not have stripped his nomination and thrown him under the bus last night? If this was someone not named Trudeau, that's what Trudeau would have done. Such hypocrisy.
8
7
46
The idea of a carbon tax is to get people to use less fossil fuel by making it more expensive. Would it not make more sense if you DIDN'T GIVE THEM THE MONEY BACK? This is just such political bullshit, whether you support carbon tax or not, it should make you barf.
4
12
48
I spent 4 hrs at St. Mike's Hospital today. A few random observations (anecdote, not evidence, I know): What great people work there, from all over the world. Hospitals are really, really complex. How lucky to live in CDA where all get same care for free. Happy Pesach & Easter
5
1
48
When a history of the great 2020 virus crash is written I will be interested in the analysis of the role of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). I suspect, but do not know, the following:
1. We know really huge amounts of $ are in S&P 500 index ETFs & similar products. 100s of Billions
6
7
46
I have been managing money for others since 1987. That's 35 years! I have learned a few things, and here are four ideas to help you be a happy investor in 2022.
3
4
46
Early May sailing in Toronto. Water temp 5C. Wind chill also 5C in 15 knots. Boat traffic: nil.
6
0
47
So much good stuff in this post by a really smart guy. Any adviser who counsels an older client to borrow to invest should be drummed out of the industry. Any firm like ML that promotes this strategy should be shunned. Markets do indeed go down as well as up. Not breaking news.
1
3
47
I am not suggesting that mortgage lenders are going to get killed or that today's buyers will lose their shirts, but it is reasonable to assume that future price appreciation will be very minor or altogether absent. Without future capital gains, renting makes more sense today 4/n
2
2
45
I continue to think that big banks in Canada will not cut dividends, and most are quite attractive at today's prices. Our view is that if you measure from today, you are more likely to see a 20% upside on the banks than in sectors that have already moved up a lot, like big tech
5
3
44
The potential job and economic losses in the
#canola
industry dwarf any damage that would occur if $SNC.CA closed its doors and went away. But since western farmers don't vote Liberal, and Toronto press doesn't know canola from cannoli, this issue is way under-covered.
6
14
45
My discussions with developers, builders and contractors in the Toronto area all end up in the same place. High interest rates and reluctant lenders make new construction harder and uneconomic. Literally thousands of units have been put on hold. 3/n
7
2
42
@wick_22
@simonhoupt
@Olympics
Few people have your perspective as an elite athlete and as a doctor. I respect your opinion a lot more than the pampered stuffed shirts on the IOOC who are worried about having their bribe money cut off. You are 100% right and we should not be sacrificing lives for the Olympics
1
5
45
It is hilarious to see Frank
#Stronach
arguing in the National Post today for restraining executive pay. We NEVER owned Magna when he was running it due to the huge amounts paid to him. And who can forget his billion dollar exit fee on his special voting shares? Irony lives!
6
5
44
Is the CDN$ strong or is the US$ weak? It really doesn't matter. For Canadians, US stocks are now 10% off. Hurry to your broker, this sale likely won't last long. Our suggestion: buy only quality names you will be happy to own for the next two to five years.
6
4
43
So $BBD.CA spent $4 billion, half tax-payers money, to develop a program it just gave half of to Airbus for free. Generous to call it a sale
6
32
44
On Oct. 31st I hit the 40 year mark working in financial services. I have been a commercial banker, a private equity financier and for the past 25 or so years, a portfolio manager. As an insurance company ad says, I've learned a thing or two because I've seen a thing or two 1/n
6
0
44
Looking for a good book gift? THE COMPANY - History of The Hudson's Bay Co. by Steven Bown, taught me more about the history of Canada from 1670 to 1870 than I learned in high school. A great read, epic characters, sweeping saga. History as it should be told.
2
2
43
I love to travel off season. I will swap bad weather and no crowds for good weather and mobs every time. You can get into hotels and restaurants and no lining up. Just need good outdoor gear and all Canadians have plenty of that.
1
3
42
Later today when CDN prime rate goes up to 6.95%, $BCE.pr.h floating rate pref now at $17.80 will have a cash on cash yield of 9.76% eligible for the dividend tax credit. So ~5.95% after tax, equal to a taxable bond at ~12.5%. Can be called at $25. Warning: Very illiquid.
7
6
42
Wow, Buck Martinez tearing a strip off the Blue Jays for dogging it against the Yankees. Bichette with two errors in the field and a base running mistake, and Vlad for strolling up the line after what he though was a homerun turned out to be off the wall. Not playoff ready.
4
0
42
While we try our best not to fall in love with our stocks, we do treasure our gems. Many years ago we started buying what is now $TFII. Lots of our clients have a cost base in the mid-$20s. Today it hit an all time high of $175 on the bankruptcy of competitor
#Yellow
. 1/n
3
4
42