David. Kamalanomics is a hell of a drug.
@David32375134
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The macro environment is thirties not any other period.
Socialism ✔
Economic Fascism ✔
Infrastructure stimulus ✔
Whatever this insane new Tribalism is ✔
Wars ✔
Currency problems, depressions ✔
It starts to make sense
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OK fools.
Silicon valley Bank didn't make loans. They gave founders crazy benefits with cheap mortgages and liquidity on the condition they keep their deposits at the bank. You get 10 million dollar mansion. I get 100 million to invest and make a spread. That's what happened
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This inversion is fucking nuts. It's like 1999, 2008, 1921, 1936, decided to have a foursome. Holy f...g shit
Seriously, what is happening
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Normal banks see the risk is such insanity and didn't want to do this. They didn't have 80% market share in the valley because they were great. They had a model nobody else would do
Blame the greedy valley. And these founders in mansions with wealth that's completely illiquid.
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It was the cool thing to do to bank with SVIB because they were giving ridiculous perks to these companies for the ability to do this.
That was a risk no other banks with a fucking Brain wanted.
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If you take hot money, Have it in liquid t bills. They pay absolutely no interest generally. No spread for you.
That wasn't going to pay the bills. So they went out on the curve
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The IPO market has been closed for a year and a half and will probably never open for most of these stupid companies.
Sorry.
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Does Pomp do a hour by hour price on the way down?
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When people say China can stimulate XYZ, do you understand the average home is 50X income? They have 70-90 Million empty places now because most of the population can't afford anything. They have 20 years supply getting built in addition to that at current demand. 90% of high
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What recession?
Bought a new Mercedes for the kids! Packed.
Stopped at country club for lunch! Packed.
Called banker, said he is giving loans out like candy! To anyone..
My friend listed home for 2 Million, sold home in a hour for 3.5. 69 offers.
What recession?
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Legend
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When people hear about 1000 dollar car payments. They cringe. This isn't low income people. The bubble in real estate isn't in Ohio. It's the upper middle class that is partying on credit. They are broke. The working class isn't who blow up this time. It's these folks.
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@ScottB_CFP
Lol. That's literally not the regulators job. Should they hedge interest rate risk. Maybe decide pay. Why not nationalize all companies? How far you want to go? How else can we make sure nothing bad happens?
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It was all fake. The entire recovery.
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We went from 7% GDP growth to negative in a quarter?
And nobody is curious why?
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You know what will fix the shortage of homes, a few million foreclosures.
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If your "wealth" is illiquid equity in property you don't have shit.
If your "wealth" is illiquid and leveraged to anything, see above.
The amount of actual real wealth hasn't changed and we are about to have the worst dash for cash in history.
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Let's be real, there are no softer humans than upper middle class professionals. We need to stop catering to these babies.
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Buybacks during layoffs. Classy. Politicians will love this.
Alphabet authorizes $70 billion buyback
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This is that scary deflation forming
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Remember if Gas Prices go up it is a crisis, but unaffordable housing is just a robust housing market. Worth it.
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Remember March 2020 was a correction in stocks. That's it. Bear markets are much much more brutal. Not even close.
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The economy is about to get truly truly bad. Like biblically bad.
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Boomers will be selling paid off homes for decades.Nothing will make these houses not drop. They are the wrong housing stock, in very expensive states. People don't want them and they can't afford them. There is no reason to buy a McMansion that needs work and has expensive taxes
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The fact that people are gambling in this market with 5% risk free and expect the government to make stocks go up is slightly disgusting. The greed isn't healthy
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People who think rapid falls in inflation is a great signal, are about to learn some shit
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It's dawning on people that the asset bubble just made people retire early and nothing but negative for the actual economy. Good job Jay hahahaha.
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We spent 6T for one year with nothing to show for it in the real economy. Its actually worse.
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And to make matters worse, see the Yen of Late? Japan Inc getting out of China Inc? The Japanese probably have a much better idea of what's actually happening there then Western investors. I don't have any idea. I can tell you Taiwan and Japan are close. Food for thought.
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Auto sales are complete shit now. They dumped inventory on rental fleets. Consumer demand is terrible and they are now hiding truck inventory. It's that bad. Literally hiding inventory in parking garages.
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Commercial real estate is the disaster. NOT deposits.
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Can you imagine what fucking happens when normal people get fucked again on all these homes?
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665,000 jobless claims were filed in a single week during March 2009
The single worst week.
Last week 530,000
Fire everyone.
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Fun fact. The Yen is doing worse then the Ruble since our punishing sanctions started. Maybe we don't understand any of this?
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Minimum drop in all assets of 50% coming up, tech could drop 80% in the years ahead
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Young people should welcome this idiotic economy burning down.
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The dollar just won't go down, makes you think this whole soft landing nonsense is just a story.
Because it is
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Nearly the entire tax base of the major cities is commercial real estate, it's going to die.
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If I hear short shallow recession one more fucking time...
Based on what? Magic beans, fucking assholes
Depression, deflation, pain.
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Cheap debt is the most expensive thing to an economy. Kills everything else.
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Commercial real estate in many cities is absolutely fucked. Not slightly, completely.
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I couldn't give a fuck what the Fed does at this point. The credit crush will be absolutely epic. They could drop it to zero tomorrow. Wouldn't matter.
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I am old enough to remember most people with wealth actually accomplishing something to gain it.
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@WHCOS
Dear God.
1. Unemployment rate is low because MILLIONS left and never came back. Per you because of day care
2. You didn't create jobs, the economy opened
This is embarrassing
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This is barely scratching the surface
US Office Sales and Prices Keep Falling With Declining Demand and Ongoing Distress
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A house just sold by me for 1.3 Million. It was bought in 2010 for 1.7 Million. The owners easily dumped 400K into it. Property tax is $44,000 annually. I think it was smart to sell it.
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Anyone who is saying the consumer is strong in 2022 should really eat a big giant deep fried bag of shit
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We create the world's dumbest economic systems based on ridiculous bubbles and people think you can unwind that with tools. Lol. The tool is the unwind. Hot potato.
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Every single extra dollar going in the gas tank is coming out of another part of the economy.
The amount of the economy that's discretionary is immense. And no matter what really wealthy people have, you don't eat dinner twice
To the vast majority of Americans, it matters
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Speed rail lines they have built have no economic purpose. People take trains they can afford, or fly. One kid, means each couple has to take care of their parents alone. And trust me, over there, parents are elders still. The growth engine left is exports and near every country
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The idea the QE caused this inflation is wrong. The inflation was caused by putting trillions into bank accounts when government ruined supply chains and businesses with lockdowns. Period.
QE is not inflationary. Stocks are not the economy.
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Fun bizzare fact. Asheville was so broke after the depression they couldn't afford to tear anything down. That's why it's so architecturally gorgeous. A time capsule from debt.
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Korea says goodbye inflation, hello deflation
PPI
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Congress is spending time on $GME, let that sink in. Who am I kidding this group is that sad.
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Tik Tok, etc. Hardware is fine, but they still need our Chips, and IP. So what's left? Nothing. 4-5% growth at best, this is still an EM economy by any metric but size. That's absolutely awful. If ANYTHING happens to real estate, or sanctions, etc. Game over for even 4%
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The economy isn't healthy. If you think it is you are incredibly wrong. Epically
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U.S. 10 Yr/3 M Spread
What the f.....
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Now the really really scary problem. They have developed world demographics but worse, they peaked years ago. And you know how they pay for local government? Land. So how do you fix this? No evidence you can. That's the push for common prosperity. Personal cult of XI.
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In the world wants to build more industry. Move supply chains. Even worse, western companies are well aware of the changing winds. You want a few billion in China when they move on Taiwan, want the risk? So what's left, tech? They don't make anything all the innovative outside
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Prosperity is 3.5T away. The last 10T wasn't enough. Science.
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People keep getting 2008 wrong. It was a liquidity issue, many of the alleged toxic securities had no credit losses. The issue now is solvency. Central banks can't fix that. These assets are going to get written down, people have to move on and take their losses. Not fixable.
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It's wild people think
1. One generation can own everything and be able to sell it to fund their retirement
2. They can also have large pensions largely paid by young workers without anything
3. The system works with an ever shrinking population
Lol
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The political implications of this are really fucking ugly. I mean good God. So hungry people, broke student debtors, about to be kicked off medicaid => get fucked.
Silicon Valley=> party on and rent seek local business or put them out of business
Trump or Ron just won.
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This is horrific the world looks like this after some 20T in "stimulus"
What now?
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By the time the labor market rolls over, your six months to a year into a recession. Something REALLY horrible is happening in the economy. All over the world.
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Shit, a crash is WAY better than this situation. You can recover from that. Unshakable deflation with no real growth is the nightmare. Wages down. Lending down. Assets down. A slow bleed that never ends. That's the nightmare.
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I don't think people understand what happens without Fiscal Stimulus
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I don't think the world is ready for how much China is slowing
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Korea is SUCH a bizzare economy. They have no kids. They have like 6 companies. They have a really strange mortgage/Rental market. Great country, strange economy
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The dot com crash barely hit the real economy outside of Asia. The system still worked then. This will be something much worse.
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Saying a recession isn't happening because everyone expects it is like saying a hurricane is coming because everyone can see it. You are not going against the grain, you are an idiot.
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Real estate isn't a fucking low risk asset, it better pay you or you better like it. Leverage and investments that must go up for it to make sense are a recipe to go broke. There is plenty of it and a whole lot of boomers who will be dumping everything in the years ahead.
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They don't care what apple stock costs. It's the corporate middle managers, who can't afford the 2 car payments and 800K mortgage.
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It's so BOOMING banks have absolutely nothing to do but return capital, horde cash and buy treasuries.
Makes sense.
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I love a good mania!
Very impressive. Even the fake currency to make fun of fake currency is ripping!
Enjoy the decade of hell and Powelled will be a verb.
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What are we even doing here? Seriously?
Does anyone actually think it's going well?
I don't know a single person who isn't worried about the economy. And I talk to everyone. Literally. It's not going to magically work out.
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I don't think people who say this isn't like 2008 understand how slow moving 2008 was. It was 2006 to 2011. Shit got really fucking bad in 2008 and the cast of characters, countries and problems is different. No reason this can't ultimately be much worse. We just don't know.
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@d_demelis
The Canadian Real estate model, much like Australia is just a textbook bubble. When it blows the country will have serious issues. Makes Ireland or Spain, or Florida during the GFC look like child's play.
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Getting rich is relatively common, staying rich is quite another. The amount of people that are about to be broke and useless is going to be quite something. You didn't earn shit, or produce anything of value to society. I couldn't care less. You deserve nothing. Zero.
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The Fed TOLD everyone a recession is coming and offered you 5%. Don't fucking cry this time.
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Americans didn't want to compete with every worker in the world. Nobody does. Work from home means more of you will, let's see how you like it.
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Economic recovery slows when aid stops, no shit.
It is NOT A RECOVERY
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Manufacturing PMI in Germany is consistent with the worst recessions
2008. 2011. 2020. Etc.
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Seeing what happens with passive investment in a real bear market will be interesting. March 2020 was a correction, nothing more.
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Biden cut food aid, started Student loans, and is fully funding a European war. His top programs domestically are grants to chip makers and rail projects that may finish in 2100, oh and 7500 bucks for an electric hummer.
People live in tents in America.
Bidenomics is wild.
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Crypto people brag about the USD value of their holdings. Think about that deeply. Take whatever crap they say with a grain of salt.
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30 year fixed with no points starts at 8%.
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The economy is in trouble. We are probably in a recession. But the Silicon Valley Bank situation was a bank run, something that NEVER happened in the GFC. Markets went illiquid, depositors didn't blow up firms. That didn't happen here. These VC bros did this. 100% panic bros.
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If you had any doubts we are in a cold war with China, XI just confirmed.
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Lol. That's literally every bank.
SVB committed one of the most elementary errors in banking: borrowing money in the short term and investing in the long term. When interest rates went up, the assets lost their value and put the institution in a problematic situation.
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It's a depression coming, not a recession.
Politicians will make this worse, not better. Central banks are politicians, not bankers.
Can it be fixed. Absolutely.
Will it be fixed. Absolutely not..
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