Dan Pizzuta
@DanPizzuta
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NFL Writer @The33rdTeamFB | Football Outsiders Almanac 20/21/22 / FTN Football Almanac 23 | danpizzuta @gmail .com
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My fourth Almanac. Really proud of this one and excited it's out! An incredible job by everyone to get this produced given the time/circumstances. There is no better season preview than this.
This year, I wrote the chapters for the Cowboys, Giants, Commanders, and Jaguars.
IT'S ALMANAC DAY!
Aaron Schatz's FTN Football Almanac 2023 is now available for download. If you pre-ordered, you can download from a dropdown in the menu at FTN. If you didn't, you can buy it and download and read it now!
Physical copy coming soon!
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Carr's been more aggressive over the past two days than he was on any deep throw in 2018
Derek Carr explains why he's furious with Max Kellerman: Don't question my 'desire'
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3K
Asking Tyrann Mathieu to take a paycut is more effective when you don't give Sam Bradford $20M for one year.
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The Vikings are in their own world with how they play defense
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Trevor Lawrence has the worst drop rate for any QB in football over the last three seasons.
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In celebration of Teddy Bridgewater's return to the field, let's remember the time he stiff-armed Geno Atkins and followed it with a completed pass
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It is fitting that a Pete Carroll team would be the one to figure out how to punt twice on one play
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The Eagles played Nate Sudfeld for a quarter.
The Jaguars *started* Mike Glennon for four games.
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Also a Robert Kraft quote
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Things NFL teams could have learned from 2018:
- Run less on first down
- Throw past the sticks on third down
- Offensive personnel dictates defensive men in the box
Things NFL teams actually took away from 2018:
- Taysom Hill
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The Steelers didn't run a play inside the Browns' 30-yard line.
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Per
#NextGenStats
, Todd Gurley has only faced an 8+man box on 9.9% of his rushing attempts, the second-fewest among RBs with at least 30 carries. Further proof offensive personnel dictates box counts and spreading the defense out takes away the ability to stack the box.
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There's only one man who has beaten Tom Brady enough to replace him
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A full collection of 2018 Odell Beckham "deep" targets (16+ yards the field)
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Trevor Lawrence, who is *checks notes* bad apparently?, is eighth among quarterbacks in EPA per play
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The Jaguars have spent a ton of money at wide receiver and could still use some help at wide receiver
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Justin Jefferson before T.J. Hockenson: 8.11 aDOT, 38.5% of team air yards, 28.2% of targets 11+ air yards
Justin Jefferson with T.J. Hockenson on the field: 13.04 aDOT, 45.9% of team air yards, 50% of targets 11+ air yards
data per
@TruMediaSports
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"The Giants have thrown an excessive number of fades into the end zone with little success"
"The Giants have also spent a lot of time working on wide receiver screens."
At their best, those are two of the most inefficient routes an offense could run.
As I watch the first practice of Week 2 of Giants camp wrap up, here are my thoughts on what I saw in the first week:
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2022 Patrick Mahomes has tied his lowest career EPA per dropback through the first four games of the season.
2022 Patrick Mahomes currently leads the NFL in EPA per dropback.
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Chargers creating a blown coverage on a deep shot by giving the defense a season's worth of evidence they won't throw it. 4D chess.
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After watching Jarvis Landry for three games in Cleveland, anyone involved in Miami's offense should be fired for whatever his role was there.
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Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens in rushing and is second in receiving for this game.
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What's the point of the FLEX position on the All-Pro roster if it just goes to someone who is already voted a first-team All-Pro at his normal position?
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Among players with 50+ targets, the highest rate of plays with positive EPA, per
@SportsInfo_SIS
:
1. *Cole Beasley*: 74.6%
2. George Kittle: 68.0%
3. Tyler Lockett: 67.1%
4. Tyler Boyd: 65.8%
5. Stefon Diggs: 64.0%
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Justin Herbert won't be a top five quarterback until he can stop the run
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Would hate for Watson to be forced into something that made him feel uncomfortable
Things could change, but I'm told Watson will want to take some time meeting with teams before determining where he feels comfortable waiving his no-trade clause. Sense is a trade is more like days away than hours away, FWIW
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What a shit consolation prize of getting the biggest overall contract in the NFL
Lamar Jackson finally realized he wasn't going to get what he wanted, so he (wisely) took what he could get. The contract numbers will prove it.
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No quarterback had more boots to the left than Jared Goff in his three years with Sean McVay.
None of those passes traveled over 20 yards.
Matthew Stafford's third snap as a Ram:
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Let's get weird. Here's how NYG makes playoffs per
@UpshotNYT
MNF
PHI > WAS
W14
NYG > WAS
PHI > DAL
W15
IND > DAL
JAX > WAS
NYG > TEN
LARM > PHI
W16
TEN > WAS
TB > DAL
NYG > IND
HOU > PHI
W17
NYG > DAL
WAS > PHI
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Purdy has thrown into tight coverage (a yard of separation or fewer) on two attempts, per
@NextGenStats
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"What if the Daniel Jones contract was a jersey"
A look at the New York Giants’ commemorative uniform that will be worn up to two times this season:
1K
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2K
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I love watching Russell Wilson. I hate watching the Seahawks offense.
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Another fun George Pickens fact, tonight he passed Kadarius Toney in career routes run.
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There are 38 cornerbacks and safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps in the slot this season, per PFF.
Kyle Hamilton has allowed the lowest yards per coverage snap (0.39).
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After Week 6 last season, the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings had a DVOA of -7.1%.
After Week 6 this season, the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings have a DVOA of 0.0%.
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Putting together a team to Ocean's 11 Terry McLaurin out of Washington
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If you're going to pay a linebacker, pay one who can do this
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Oh, just Fred Warner carrying Marquise Brown down the field, flipping his hips, and getting in for the pass breakup. You know, typical linebacker stuff.
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The Ravens used dime on nearly half their snaps (47.6%), per TruMedia. The Chargers were the next highest team at 28.6%.
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Seeing how the Giants and Bears have handled this offseason should be a lesson to teams about not letting the guy who needs to have a great season in order to save his job get the chance to make short-term decisions that will inevitably screw the team in the future
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Cardinals had four defenders on Deebo/Aiyuk. No one deep to stop McCaffrey.
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The Saints doing the Derek Carr deal only for the Falcons to end up with Lamar Jackson would be the funniest NFL timeline
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Have to say I applaud the effort to frame a loss by the most run-heavy team in the NFL as the death blow to analytics and passing in the playoffs.
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Jordan Davis: 126.4
Saquan Barkley: 124.3
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After writing up the defensive depth chart for all 32 teams, I lost track of the number of times I wrote "struggles in coverage" in linebacker and safety sections.
NFL teams are fine asking players to do things they're bad at but freak out when a player is good at too many
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Eli was supposed to be the starter until the Giants were out of contention. It took two weeks. Their self-scouting over the past few offseasons has been atrocious.
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That throw had a 6.3% completion probability per
@NextGenStats
, the most improbable completion of the season
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All four AFC East teams have a positive point differential.
No other division has three.
Four others have two.
The NFC South has none.
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Joe Flacco a week removed from shuffleboard in the senior community is easily the Browns' best quarterback this season
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Mitchell Trubisky didn't complete a pass further than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage until the final throw to Allen Robinson
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In the past 24 hours, Adam Gase has publicly gotten pissed at his WRs, defended play time decisions by saying "I'm the coach I can do whatever I want," had a story leak that he preferred Mayfield to Darnold pre-draft, and just traded a draft pick for Demaryius Thomas. It's Week 2
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I'm still not entirely sure how Jason Verrett comes away with this ball for an interception
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Greg Olsen remains really good at explaining truths that go against old school conventional wisdom
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Through two weeks, the Chargers are 32nd in defensive DVOA with a bigger gap between them and the 31st team than between 31 and 22.
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QB Comp% and On-Target% on deep passes in 2020, min 20 attempts
(data per
@SportsInfo_SIS
)
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The Chiefs:
- held the 49ers to their first game without an explosive run all season
- pressured Purdy on 57.9% of blitzes
- forced a tight window on 23.7% on Purdy's passes
- allowed 5.1 yards per play throughout the playoffs, facing MIA, BUF, BAL, and SF
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This... does not sound like a very, very smart NFL person. For as hard as it is to find an Odell Beckham, it would be even harder to find an Adam Thielen in the path he took
I remember talking to a very, very smart NFL person right before the Giants signed OBJ to his extension and he said “the Giants don’t need to sign him ...have you ever heard of a kid named Adam Thielen? Go find talent”
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With the Giants using Halapio on IR as the corresponding move to the Elijhaa Penny signing, the Giants now have two fullbacks on the roster. In 2018.
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Honestly a little bummed we're missing out on the massive contracts Dave Gettleman would be giving Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley right now just to prove a point.
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Vic Fangio talking about "balance" on offense being more than run/pass ratio. "Do you throw short? Do you throw long? Do you run zone? Do you run gap? I know this because I coached against it."
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Kliff Kingsbury on the Russillo podcast talked about how he made a mistake trying to hide his offense in the preseason for element of surprise Week 1. Said it ending up taking the first month of regular season for everyone to get a feel and figure out what they were good at
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Looks like Kellen Moore and Jason Garrett came to a compromise on the offense.
Moore: "I want to start using all the motion and good plays again."
Garrett: "Ok, fine, but only if they go to Tavon Austin."
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It's been 102 days and I still don't understand the Leonard Williams trade
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A reminder the 49ers have a former top-5 QB recruit on the roster
The 2015 QB recruiting rankings were absolute chaos. A lot going on here.
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Taunts per incompletion and incomplete gesture per inaccurate pass are the only two advanced stats you need for cornerbacks and Witherspoon is top tier.
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Cowboys one timeout remaining with 14 minutes left in the fourth of a tie game. No way that becomes an issue.
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Don't fall for this spin. If Peppers was available straight up for a trade, he wouldn't have pulled in a first.
They felt like they got the two first-round picks they wanted. One was this year’s No. 17. The other was Jabrill Peppers.
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Per
@SportsInfo_SIS
, 2018 attempts/on target%/YPA from the pocket:
Murray: 292/85.3%/12.1
Haskins: 397/84.9%/9.7
Jones: 248/83.9%/8.0
Grier: 318/83.6%/10.3
Lock: 327/78.9%/8.5
Can Kyler Murray make the pocket throws like Russell Wilson did for the first several years of his career?
I know he has strong/whippy arm. I know he's going to be one of the fastest/most athletic players on field.
But can he win w/ his arm within structure when he needs to?
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Matthew Stafford leads the league in EPA per dropback and QBR.
The gap between him and No. 2 in EPA/DB is the bigger than between 2 and 15.
The gap between him and No. 2 in QBR is bigger than between 2 and 12.
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Josina Anderson on ESPN just said there's a team in the AFC North (clearly Cleveland) that continues to be in discussions with Giants for Odell Beckham
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I’m less offended by the idea of the Peacock game than I am for them giving us Jason Garrett on it
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Per
@NextGenStats
, D'Ernest Johnson has 43 rushing yards over expectation and 68.8% of his carries have more rushing yards than expected tonight.
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The Titans had the lowest average yards to go on third downs in Week 1 (4.0) and only converted 27.3% of them
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This feels like years ago, but Ereck Flowers tripping Calais Campbell was the first play of the 2018 Giants season.
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The 37-yard catch makes this JuJu Smith-Schuster's second best *game* this season by receiving yards
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@FB_FilmAnalysis
"what if we took this dude who ran a 4.4 and only sent him on quick hitches and shallow crossers?"
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2.3% of Patrick Mahomes's attempts were deep vs BUF, the lowest rate of his career.
75% were between 1-10 air yards, highest of his career.
I wrote about Mahomes, the best adjuster in football even when defenses do everything possible to adjust to him
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Just going through a normal morning, listening to the
@minakimes
show featuring Lenny and out of nowhere she drops a "what if Teddy Bridgewater was named Dan?" take.
"Not as cute, not as charming, not as lovable."
Going to need a few minutes to recover.
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The Giants' only choice now is to throw to Evan Engram 30 times against Washington to back up how much they trashed Landon Collins's coverage ability
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A month ago I was pretty sure I knew what the Dolphins were doing. I currently have no idea what the Dolphins are doing.
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This is about a 171% premium, which would be the most for a picks-for-picks trade in the draft so far
The Browns trade: Pick 44
The Texans trade: Pick 68, 108, 124
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