David Keller, CMT
@DKellerCMT
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@StockCharts Chief Market Strategist, President @ Sierra Alpha Research, @CNBC Contributor. Former Fidelity, Bloomberg. For educational purposes only.
Redmond, WA
Joined February 2017
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I put two children through Harvard by trading options. Unfortunately, they were my broker’s children.
Jason Zweig
@jasonzweigwsj
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Bear market rallies are the three S's:
- sudden
- severe
- seductive
I'm inclined to label this a bear market rally until we start breaking above trendline and cloud resistance. $SPX $SPY
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index now above 70%. The 2022 playbook says a reversal back below the 70% level indicates the bear market rally is over.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index now well above the key 70% level. That means we're going up, big time. The problem is when this indicator breaks back below 70%, which has usually been a fantastic signal for pullback mode. Not yet...
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McClellan Oscillator sell signal as it dipped below the zero level on Friday. This is a confirmation signal after bearish divergences from other breadth indicators as well. Suggests short-term weakness for $SPX $QQQ although notably not a long-term signal in my experience!
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Ignore all the competing narratives, and just focus on the chart of $QQQ. Possibly the most straightforward bullish rotation imaginable. Triple bottom at 260, break above resistance and the 200-day MA in Jan, pullback to breakout level in Feb, now rotating higher.
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I put two children through Harvard by trading options. Unfortunately, they were my broker’s children.
Jason Zweig
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McClellan Oscillator has moved below zero, and no that is not bullish for $SPX $SPY.
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"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." -John Templeton
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$SPX making new all-time highs as breadth indicators all deteriorate. Situation normal.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index $BPSPX very close to breaking below 70%. This has lined up well with previous 2022 tops in January, April, August. FWIW, the $NDX Bullish Percent Index has already broken below 70%...
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"At the bottom, stocks will be cheap and no one will care." -Bob Farrell
Pairs well with my mentor Walter Deemer, who said, "When the time comes to buy, you won't want to."
Bear markets are challenging. They also provide great opportunities to grow and learn as an investor.
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Heading to
@Disneyland
with my family so here’s my Fed week cheat sheet.
$SPX > 4100 = bullish
$SPX < 3800 = bearish
$SPX 3800-4100 = noise!
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The McClellan Oscillator turned negative last week, and as you can tell by the masterfully designed color palette , that is not bullish.
$SPX $SPY
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index registered a bullish signal after pushing below and then back above the 30% level. There have been head fakes before (May 2022) but this usually is a strong indicator of an upside reversal. $BPSPX
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index back below the 30% level, which initiates another buy signal. A break back above 30% suggests improving breadth and likely more bullish price action. Most recent signal resulted in a brief rally before the current predicament! $BPSPX
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Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index $BPNDX is now at the 70% level. History tells us that when this indicator goes above 70% and then breaks back below, there's your downside correction. Maybe the most important chart to watch to gauge a potential pullback within a raging bull! $QQQ
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Decided to grow the beard out again. Most likely the sign of a major market top.
#facialhairasamarketindicator
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Can't help but notice a major league bearish divergence between $SPX $QQQ and most market breadth indicators...
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Buy signal for $SPX Bullish Percent Index has now been initiated. A break below 30% indicates a bearish phase. A break back above 30% would be the "trigger" and suggest upside momentum, similar to Oct '22 and June '22. $BPSPX
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index now above 70%. This means the market is going up! When this goes back below 70% (which can take weeks!) that usually means pullback mode has commenced. $BPSPX
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I see you there, McClellan Oscillator. Hanging out above the zero level like all is well, nothing big going on or anything. At some point, you will break below the zero level. And I will be there. $SPX $SPY
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$SPX percent of stocks above 50-day and 200-day MA are both above 80%, which actually doesn't happen too often. But when it does, it's usually not a top.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index $BPSPX rapidly approaching the crucial 30% level. A break below this level, then a move back above this threshold, often lines up well with a significant market bottom.
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Why are we so focused on $SPX remaining above its 200-day moving average? Because every major drawdown since the 2009 low has involved a breakdown through this important long-term trend barometer. "Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average."
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TODAY is the market top.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
(planning to keep posting this tweet every day until it's proven right)
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index basically saying two things:
1. The trend is still bullish.
2. We're in the 8th inning, not the 3rd inning.
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How do you differentiate bear market rallies from more significant bull phases? Well for one, these breadth readings would have to dramatically improve. $SPX $SPY
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Cumulative advance declines making higher highs in the last two weeks along with the $SPX:
Large cap: Yes.
Mid cap: No.
Small cap: No.
NYSE common stock only: No.
Last time this happened? Feb 2020.
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Dang it's going to be rough when this thing turns lower. Not if. When. $NVDA
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While the $SPX is making new all-time highs, mid caps and small caps are very much not doing so. Some will tell you this just does not matter. The bad news is most major market tops look something like this. $SPY $MDY $IWM
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How bearish do we want to be when $MSFT is making new all-time highs?......................
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Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator fired on Friday. This represents a sudden and swift improvement in breadth conditions after they have been beaten down. Check the last ten years and you'll see this hits rarely, and is usually pretty bullish. Big exception in 2015-16! $SPX $SPY
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If this is an A-B-C correction from the July high, then the $SPX is pretty much there. Waves A and C are pretty equal in terms of time and distance. We are also right at a trendline using the Oct 2022 and Mar 2023 lows. The point of no return is upon us, bulls!
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McClellan Oscillator back below zero after yesterday's drop. Suggests we are now in a Wave C for $SPX giving the pullback phase a downside objective around 4200. Seasonality playbook appearing to be spot on in 2023!
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As long as > 50% of $SPX stocks are above their 200-day moving average, things are in pretty good shape. If and when that breaks below 50%, that could be the "end of the bear market rally" signal.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index is now above 70%. The last three times this indicator was above 70%?
March 2022
January 2022
November 2021
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Currently 45% of $SPX names remain above their 200-day moving average. Going back to 2009, the major corrections have been marked by extended time below the 50% level for this indicator. Key chart to watch here.
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Successful investing is about having people agree with you…later.
Jim Grant
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McClellan Oscillator back above zero line as $SPX $QQQ continue their unrelenting climb to bullish glory. Short-term breadth bullish, long-term breadth bullish, it's seems like it's a bull market or something.
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Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index $BPNDX gave a sell signal yesterday, breaking back below the crucial 70% level. Red bars highlight previous occurrences, and it is pretty consistent with a pullback phase. Downside to ###? $QQQ $NDX $COMPQ
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Merry Christmas and blessings to all from the Kellers!
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I was taught that investing was about fear and greed. I would say it's really about fear and fear. In bull phases, Fear of Missing Out. In bear phases, Fear of Losing Everything.
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For now, I'm focused on this chart of market breadth indicators to see if they remain above the crucial 50% level. As long as that is true, then the bullish recovery phase appears to be intact. $SPX $SPY
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$SPX still holding above trendline using closes from October, December. But the advance-decline line for $SPX has already broken down through that trendline. Early warning of a breakdown to come?
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We're back to over 50% of $SPX stocks above their 200-day moving averages. This tells me that most stocks are in uptrends (as loosely defined by above/below the 200-day MA) and that is more characteristic of bull phases than bear phases!
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NAAIM Exposure Index at its lowest level since Mar/Apr 2020. What concerns me here is the indicator reached 30 four times since 2014, and in 100% of those cases that was not the end of the correction. $SPX $SPY
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A bull market is when you check the prices of your stocks every day to see how much money you've made. A bear market is when you don't bother to look any more.
John Hammerslough
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If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out.
Paul Tudor Jones
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$SPX below 5,000 would confirm a bear flag pattern, yielding a downside objective around 4820. This would also represent a 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2023-Mar 2024 rally phase.
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Any time you've experienced a pullback from a new high, it's a perfect time to drop some Fibonacci retracements. $SPX chart tells me any action above 4530 can be interpreted as "just a brief pullback after the Q4 bull run", and a move below that could mean something different.
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"Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach." -Peter Lynch
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$QQQ now overbought so bearish short-term? Perhaps, but just remember that things can become overbought and stay overbought in strong bull phases. See May 2023.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index $BPSPX back above 30, which usually indicates an upside reversal after a down leg. Two previous signals in 2022 were mid-May and late June. Late October rally?...
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If this is an A-B-C correction from the July high, then the current wave C is pretty much in line with the length and time of wave A. Also the $VIX is just below 18, similar to August pullback. Point of decision here for $SPX...
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I see $SPX as having broken the neckline of a clear head and shoulders top. Now waiting for follow-through, which would be some indication of further distribution. Not seeing that yet. Pattern yields minimum downside objective around 4070.
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One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing unless there is something to do… I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
Jim Rogers
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Market Trend Model now bullish on all three time frames, which tells me to focus more on capital growth than capital preservation.
$SPX $SPY
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$VIX above 15 = pullback
$VIX above 20 = correction
$VIX above 29 = get out of the way
My latest video on why these levels matter:
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July: $SPX rallies on increasing volume
August: $SPX rallies on decreasing volume
See the change?.....
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"Don't be too bearish when all the advance-decline lines are making new all-time highs." -David Keller, 6/3/21
$SPX $SPY
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Encouraging action in one of my favorite breadth indicators, the percent of $SPX stocks above key moving averages. Both remained above the important 50% level, suggesting stocks broadly speaking are in a bullish phase. Food for thought!
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By my reading, we are super close to a Hindenburg Omen sell signal... but the missing component is the lack of new highs and lows. Indicator needs at least 2.8% of NYSE listings making a new high and new low on the same day. This may be the chart to watch...
$SPX $SPY $NYA
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The classic bull market top:
1. bearish momentum divergence as price moves higher but momentum does not
2. lower high as buyers unwilling to push the market beyond previous peak
3. break below 50-day moving average confirms downtrend has begun
$FNGS has completed 2 of 3...
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McClellan Oscillator well below zero and nearing its lowest level in 2022. $SPX $SPY
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As long as high yield spreads continue to widen (top panel, plotted inversely), and volatility continues to elevate (middle panel, plotted inversely), then I will continue to call this an established bear market phase. $SPX $SPY
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"I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second." -Paul Tudor Jones
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Two things are true about extreme breadth readings like this... 1, short-term pullbacks are common, and 2, in almost all instances the market is higher 6-12 months later. More here:
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What would convince me the bear market phase is over? Evaporation of new lows and expansion in new highs. We've seen new lows evaporate but not enough new highs to suggest any sort of bullish rotation. Yet. $SPX $SPY
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"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for
#corrections
, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." -Peter Lynch
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Hold onto your hats, folks! The Hindenburg Omen flashed an initial sell signal earlier this May, signaling market turbulence ahead. 🚩 It's named after the infamous Hindenburg disaster, for a reason! Historically, these signals have happened right before significant downturns.
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AAII Survey yesterday revealed some of the most bearish sentiment in history! Almost 60% bulls and 16% bears means the largest bearish spread since 2009.
$SPX $SPY
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Here's how I'm seeing things:
$SPX > 4400 = bullish
$SPX < 4200 = bearish
Anything else = neutral
How are you seeing things?
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Bear markets see lots of new 52-week lows. One of the signs that a bear market is nearing its end is you see an evaporation of new lows. Not the case just yet! $SPY $SPX
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Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men.
John F. Kennedy
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Interesting data point that the McClellan Oscillator did not break back above the zero level this week despite the short-term market strength. Bearish until proven otherwise. $SPX $SPY
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The $SPX Bullish Percent index has dipped below 50% seven times in the last two years. Six of those were very buyable dips... and the seventh was Feb-Mar 2020!
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I've learned to not be surprised by the market moving higher when my Market Trend Model is bullish on all three time frames. It's not about whether we make new highs, it's about whether the pullback (which will happen at some point!) makes a higher low.
$SPX $SPY
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All four advance-decline lines are making lower highs and lower lows, and are below downward-sloping 50-day moving averages. I'm prepared to be bullish when the previous sentence is no longer true. $SPX $SPY $NYA $MID $IWM $SML
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$SPX is now testing the "final" resistance, a trendline from the 2022 highs, also looking for confirmation after closing above the 200-day MA yesterday. At the same time, $VIX is testing the 20 level again, which has been where previous peaks in 2022 have exhausted. Wow.
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Continuing my series of "breadth charts confirming a corrective phase" here is the Bullish Percent Index for the $NDX. Break below 70 has identified pretty much every major drawdown over the last 12 months. Not bullish.
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I have a Market Trend Model as a reminder to regularly step back from the day-to-day market movements and focus on the overall market trend. As of last Friday, the trend (using my measures) remains bullish on long-term, medium-term and short-term time frames. $SPX $SPY
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Advance-decline lines for the $NYA, $SPX, $MID and $SML all breaking below their 50-day moving averages this week, providing yet another example of a market in distribution phase. Be bullish when these lines are going up, not down!
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Sure feels like some of the magnificent 7 are not so magnificent at the moment. $GOOGL and $AAPL very close to breaking down through key support!
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Capitulation?!? $SPX advance-decline line still hasn't broken its low from March. Things could certainly get much worse before they get better.
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Breadth indicators behave differently in bull and bear markets. For example, % of stocks above 200-day MA. In early 2022, this indicator broke below 50% in Jan and then stayed below 60% through year-end. In 2023, numerous breaks below 50% have signaled buyable dips! $SPX $SPY
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$SPX 3800 makes sense from a technical perspective with a confluence of Fibonacci support levels. A break below 3800 would clear the way to....?
3200 which would represent a 100% retracement back to the Sep 2020 lows.
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Two up days are not a trend reversal. But indicators like the Zweig Breadth Thrust are designed to help you differentiate a meaningful reversal from another Dead Cat Bounce. Needs to get above .63 within 10 trading days... $SPX $SPY
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$SPX percent of stocks above the 50-day moving average now down to 70% from 90% at year-end 2023. This lines up pretty well with previous tactical market tops.
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index right at 70% or what's called the "bull confirmed" level. The last two times we had a brief move above 70%? Short-term market tops in Nov 2021 and Jan 2022.
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I see you there, McClellan Oscillator. Briefly popping back above zero on Monday before dropping right back below into the bearish range. Short-term breadth still pretty weak, folks.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
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Assuming the $SPX has reached its peak for this part of the cycle and is indeed heading lower in August, I'm immediately drawn to the 4200 level for two reasons...
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$SPX Bullish Percent Index now back below 70, which often indicates a short-term downtrend. Most recent signal Dec '22 resulted in about a 300 pt drop from 4100 to 3800. Pullback to confirm higher low as uptrend continues?...
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Merry Christmas from The Kellers in a *snowy* Redmond, Washington. ❄️🎄
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The big money is not in the buying and the selling... but in the waiting.
Charlie Munger
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My technical analyst brain tells me bonds $TLT are setting up for an upside breakout. Higher lows around 100, RSI right at the threshold of breaking above 60, price testing key resistance around 108. Flight to safety?...
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What are the chances of the $SPX and $QQQ rotating to a bullish phase while $MSFT is making new lows?
a) zero
b) zero
c) very much zero
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