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There will always be volatility and uncertainty in the short-term.
But it's crazy that Bitcoin was able to go back to it's previous ATH while global liquidity went down.
Now imagine what it does in the medium to long term now that central banks around the world are easing and
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And just like that my entire feed is euphoric again 😂
I know it's easy to feel a ton of FOMO on days like today and I would love it if Bitcoin broke out higher from here.
But I think many are underestimating the volatility we could see between now and the election.
Be
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Yesterday it was all over and today we're so back, never ceases to amaze me how sentiment flips on here.
What I do know is that we will see major volatility in the next 2 months like every single Q4 before it.
As always, I'm positioned for upside, but always keep cash incase of
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I know there's a ton of fear all over the feed right now.
But today's correction is barely visible when you zoom out and look at the Bitcoin weekly chart.
Wake me up when we're below 50k or above 70k, otherwise just holding spot and chilling. 😎
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So much arguing over whether this cycle is over or just getting started.
Looks like a standard mid-cycle Bitcoin re-accumulation phase to me.
Seasonality, Election cycle and FED easing all lining up for a Q4 rally.
Don't lose sight of the goal 🫡
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10 days to go until we are finally through this Bitcoin chop seasonality.
I expect volatility and excitement to increase as we enter October and especially November.
The next few weeks should be fun, don't get shaken out by short-term uncertainty. 🫡
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Hard to be stressed as a Bitcoin holder when US M2 Money Supply is curling up like this before the FED has even started cutting rates.
Recession? = more currency debasement
New President? = more currency debasement
FED Cuts? = more currency debasement
The hard part is not
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Hard for me to expect a huge rally for Bitcoin in the short-term while the FED is still reducing its balance sheet (QT).
We know global liquidity is a main driver for Bitcoin and I think we'll need to see QE come back for a huge rally like the one we saw in 2020-2021.
Maybe
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Another low Initial Jobless claims print this morning at 218k.
Still trying to find this "Recession" the macro doomers are obsessed with.
Don't get shaken out by the noise 🫡
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As usual, I’m already seeing a ton of “did you buy the bottom?” posts from the same accounts that said the same thing at 70k, 65k, 60k and now 55k.
I think it’s a way better strategy to keep expectations low during these 2 worst months for Bitcoin historically (August and
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The longer and tighter the consolidation range, the more aggressive the expansion.
Bitcoin' boring summer chopsolidation is finally behind us.
I'm expecting fireworks in Q4. 🫡
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Many have been talking about Bitcoin's correlation with Global Liquidity over the past 2 years.
With FED Easing around the corner, it feels like it's time to start paying closer attention to it.
Very likely we see Global Liquidity increase substantially over the next few
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There’s no way everything I warned about in my videos is playing out while I am on vacation and can’t record any updates 😂
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Market starting to consider a 50bps rate cut from the FED next week instead of 25bps.
Could be the catalyst for DXY to finally start breaking down.
Next week should be volatile as we approach FOMC on Wednesday.
Don't get caught up in the short-term noise.
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This chart received a lot of pushback when I started talking about it on Youtube in Early May.
The market has now been chopping around in the "Fair Value" region for almost 8 months.
Notice the wicks every time Bitcoin tries to enter the "Overvalued" or "Undervalued" regions.
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Bitcoin and DXY both going up together this week so far.
Usually this isn't the case. Which one is lying? 🤔
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It would be awesome if Bitcoin could stop chopping around and follow the S&P 500 into price discovery already 🫡
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Whether Bitcoin breaks out to new ATHs in Q4 of this year or Q1 next year, I still think we see higher prices before this cycle is over.
We will know which version of the cycle we will get by November as the election uncertainty gets resolved.
Being prepared for multiple
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Bitcoin has been chopping around for ~6 months in this fair value range we mapped out in early May.
Notice how sellers stepped in each time Bitcoin entered the "Overvalued" region and buyers stepped in when we entered the "Undervalued" region.
I still have high conviction this
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This chart blows my mind every time I look at it.
US government issues more debt -> Debt gets monetized -> fiat currency gets devalued -> risk assets reprice higher
As long as governments keep increasing their debt issuance, assets like Stocks and Bitcoin will thrive 🤝
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Bitcoin is still struggling to reclaim our range low at $61.5k.
Still time before the weekly close, but if this rejection holds, we likely see lower prices over the next few weeks.
Although the FED cut rates by 50bps, they are projecting less rate cuts this year and next year
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The best way to lose money in markets is to be 100% set on one outcome and going all-in on it.
The "Normal Cycle" scenario in yellow has been my base case for months now, but I'm always open to other scenarios playing out instead.
We would all love it if Bitcoin doubled
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The US Dollar Index is finally approaching some resistance here.
We knew the bounce at the 200-week MA combined with the multi-year range low was likely.
Would ideally like to see it rollover soon into the "risk-on" zone for Bitcoin to break higher. 🤝
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Bitcoin trying to hold the 50-week moving average.
We knew September would be volatile, but I'm seeing a lot of panic on the timeline.
Probably see new lows if bitcoin doesn't hold here.
Still patiently waiting for Q4.
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The S&P 500 is back in price discovery after today's strong labor market print.
Good backdrop for Bitcoin to follow suit over the next few months.
Hard to predict exactly what will happen in the short-term, but couldn't be more optimistic on the medium to long-term 🫡
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I know it's frustrating that no one knows exactly what will happen with Bitcoin in the short-term.
But the long-term thesis is stronger than ever when you take a look at the debt and money supply expansion we have seen over the past few years.
Don't overcomplicate it by
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Are we on the verge of a recession and market crash or is this the start of the "golden bull run"?
I know there is a ton of uncertainty out there and both the bears and bulls have convincing arguments.
The best way I have found to avoid mistakes and stick to my long term plan
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We are now 60% of the way through this Bitcoin summer chop phase.
All eyes on late September early October time period.
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Sometimes it's as simple as zooming out every once in a while and looking at the big picture.
Bitcoin has gone sideways below it's previous all time high for 7 months now, expansion comes next.
The noise and volatility will only increase between now and November, but I think we
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It's not surprising that Bitcoin has been struggling this week with the bounce we have seen in the DXY.
Would like to see this rollover soon after some short-term upside.
Might have to wait for the FED to restart QE for the DXY to re-enter the "Risk-On" region, but let's see.
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DXY continuing to look weak here which is historically great for Bitcoin.
There can always be short-term bounces, but it likely goes lower over the next few months.
Perfect backdrop for Bitcoin price discovery 🫡
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Weekends are a great time to zoom out and remind ourselves of the big picture.
Hard to not be bullish Bitcoin and risk assets on larger time frames when looking at this chart.
Imagine arguing over whether Bitcoin will bottom this month or next month when US M2 is curling up
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Bitcoin was able to close above our pivotal range low of $61.5k last week.
Would love to see it confirm the reclaim by closing above that level again.
A loss of $61.5k would be a warning sign in the short-term that we aren't ready for price discovery just yet and need a couple
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Strong bounce in the DXY yesterday after that strong labor market data.
Now that the market is pricing in less rate cuts, that likely means we will have to be patient and wait a few weeks before Bitcoin can really take off.
Happy to be surprised by some unforeseen bullish
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Bitcoin Left-Translated Cycle scenario looking less and less likely by the day.
Normal Cycle scenario with prolonged summer chop/consolidation still the base case for now.
Party starts in Q4 once the election uncertainty is behind us 🤝
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Big drop in the DXY over the past few weeks.
We know Bitcoin's past mania phases have occurred while the DXY had a prolonged downtrend.
Party starts when we break below $100 and finally breakdown from this 2-year trading range.
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Global liquidity is still rolling over here which isn't ideal for Bitcoin and other risk assets in the short-term.
We really want to see it trend higher for assets like Bitcoin to really take off.
This doesn't impact our long-term Bitcoin thesis, but it does remind us that more
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Solid weekly close yesterday for Bitcoin and now facing resistance at the previous local high.
It's early in the week, but would love to see a weekly close above $66.5k to confirm recent higher low.
Should be a fun week regardless. 🤝
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We knew volatility would increase as we approach November.
We went from everyone calling for altseason 2 days ago, to everyone saying it's all over yesterday. 🤣
The next few months will be wild, make sure to have a plan and be proactive rather than reactive 🤝
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We finally made it to September.
Although we knew the last 3 months would be boring and choppy, it has still felt like 3 years.
I'm sure it has been a painful few months for many, but I do believe we are approaching the finish line.
6 months of re-accumulation going into Q4 is
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These Bitcoin re-accumulation phases (yellow boxes) always look obvious in retrospect.
The hard part is not falling for the narratives and getting shaken out when you are in the thick of it.
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Pretty crazy that Bitcoin has been in this "fair value" range since February of this year.
Long-term holders and DCAers probably had the easiest time navigating this market the past few months while most traders got pummeled.
I have high conviction we exit this range sometime
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There’s no way this many people are comparing this Bitcoin selloff to the March 2020 crash and v-reversal (just last month they were saying the Bitcoin conference would trigger a supercycle and we’d never see Bitcoin below $60k again) 😂
Let’s not forget that the S&P 500 dropped
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Pretty crazy that the market is expecting no more 50bps rate cuts for the rest of this cycle.
Tomorrow's CPI print should have a pretty large impact on these expectations and the DXY as a result.
Cool CPI = DXY down and Bitcoin up most likely.
Hot CPI = DXY up and Bitcoin down
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Pretty crazy that we are less than 30 days away from the first FED rate cut.
Expecting a very volatile September for Bitcoin.
The last 2 years have felt like a decade. 🤣
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This is and has been the most expensive chart in markets over the past 2 years.
Many have been sidelined since 2022 when the FED started hiking rates because of the imminent "recession" and "market crash".
1 variable in a vacuum (FED rate cuts) is not enough information to
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Pretty wild that Bitcoin is struggling to hold above it's 20-week MA while the S&P 500 is in full-blown price discovery.
Probably has to do with the fact that global liquidity is still going down and many investors are waiting for the election drama to resolve before fully
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After months of chopping around, the S&P 500 is back in price discovery.
Provides a great backdrop for Bitcoin if the S&P 500 can keep this up.
Still a lot of uncertainty in the short-term, but this is a nice first step. 🤝
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Pretty concerning Core CPI print today.
Market expected 3.2% which would have matched the last 2 readings, but we rose to 3.3% instead.
This makes it very hard for the FED to justify aggressive rate cuts and easing unless we see something break in the economy. 🫡
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Still looking for that recession data that everyone has been yelling about for months now.
Can't believe we got back to back drops in the unemployment rate after it broke above it's 2-year moving average (yellow line).
This is why I always talked about Initial and Continuing
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Seeing a lot of excitement on the timeline again and I can't blame them with this great start to the week.
Just remember that in all the years Bitcoin went down in Q4, it rallied in October.
November decides the trend, I don't make the rules. 🫡
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Pretty big jump in Initial Jobless Claims yesterday to 258k.
It's still below our cycle high of 261k and well below our average recession start of 360k.
It tends to lead the unemployment rate so definitely something we'll continue monitoring over the coming weeks. 🫡
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My base case is still the normal cycle scenario for Bitcoin, but I'm open to the other 2 outcomes.
We probably get clarity on which path is being following by the time the US election happens.
Should be a wild few weeks, don't get caught up in just one potential outcome. 🫡
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Unemployment rate came in at 4.2% today and lower than the last print of 4.3%.
Takes a 50 basis point rate cut in September off the table in my opinion.
1 drop in the unemployment rate definitely isn't enough to be deemed a new trend.
But it does seem as though the labor
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As more and more Bitcoin holders start to give up hope and fall for the "Cycle is over" narrative now that price has been chopping downward for a few months.
My conviction in a Q4 rally that extends into 2025 (yellow line) gets stronger and stronger.
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Stop being a perma bear they said 🫡
It’s been a long time since I’ve seen
#Bitcoin
euphoria like this on the timeline.
Even more surprising when you look at what’s been happening in traditional markets.
Good thing Trump is definitely going to make Bitcoin a reserve asset at a conference next week and put it on
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Bitcoin charts like this one are a great reminder of what's possible.
I know everyone wants certainties and "price targets", but the most successful investors/traders I have observed, operate via probabilities.
I would love an opportunity to buy Bitcoin in the low 40ks, but I
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Initial Jobless claims came in at 227k this morning.
Still about ~130k less than what we usually see at the start of recessions.
We can talk about labor market weakness when we clear our cycle highs of June 2023 (261k).
All eyes on tomorrow's unemployment rate print now.
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Seeing a lot of fear out there with this relatively small Bitcoin pullback.
I expect volatility and uncertainty to increase as we approach the US election.
The Bitcoin investment thesis has never been stronger, we just have to survive long enough to see it through. 🫡
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Although I'm keeping my expectations for Bitcoin low going into September. (worst month for Bitcoin historically)
I still think it's unlikely Bitcoin trades below $45k this year.
We must be prepared for multiple outcomes, but I'd be nervous if I was fully sidelined praying for
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All eyes on Bitcoin fighting to reclaim that pivotal $61.5k level.
Keeping short-term expectations conservative until we we are closing weekly candles back above it.
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Bumpy start to the week for Bitcoin.
It seems as though everyone is convinced we are going straight down this month (thanks to seasonality).
Usually means there will be some sharp bounces along the way at the very least.
I remain cautious until our $61.5k range low gets
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Core PCE print came in at 2.6% today even though the market expected a tick up to 2.7%.
Gives the FED even more confirmation that doing the first rate cut in September is the right call.
Inflation flaring back up is a serious risk I'll be watching for in 2025 once the FED is
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Bitcoin and the S&P 500 correcting together so far.
Volatility usually increases as we approach US presidential elections (November).
Remaining calm and conservative until Q4 🤝
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A lot of drama on the timeline after the volatility we've seen in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 the past week or so.
History says the volatility will only increase as we approach November.
Make sure to have a longer term plan so you aren't caught trying to react to daily or weekly
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This is my favorite macro chart.
Clearly presents the relationship between US government debt expansion and the S&P 500.
The market knows the debt has to be monetized eventually via currency debasement.
Someday this will result in a crisis, but I think it has a long way to go
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Rejection at the 20W MA so far for
#Bitcoin
. We really want to see this level reclaimed if we're going to get the big rally everyone is waiting for.
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Nice rally from Bitcoin after Powell's speech.
20-week moving average is a pivotal line in the sand.
Can Bitcoin reclaim it and actually breakout here? or will it get rejected into one last shakeout in September?
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Rough start to the month so far for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Likely that Bitcoin struggles until we see the S&P 500 putting in new highs again.
Might take until November depending on how things go with the election.
Nothing to do, but zoom out and wait for now.
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#Bitcoin
is starting to diverge away from the S&P 500 for the first time in awhile here.
Still early, but something to keep an eye on.
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DXY struggling at resistance, Bitcoin bulls want to see it rollover here so Bitcoin can continue higher.
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The Divergence between
#Bitcoin
and the S&P 500 is continuing to increase, these large divergences are pretty rare historically, which one is lying?
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Not the best weekly candle for Bitcoin so far.
Rejection off the 20-week moving average and back below our range low at $61.5k.
Agrees nicely with our chop into September and party starts in Q4 thesis, but let's see.
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Bitcoin mania phases have required a breakdown in the dollar index historically.
The dollar index is bouncing off the range low for now.
Looking for it to breakdown sometime in the next month or 2 once rate cuts begin.
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Seeing a lot of bottom calls on the timeline yet
#Bitcoin
still hasn't reclaimed the pivotal breakdown level of $60k 🤔 I'll believe it when I see it.
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Strong labor market data yesterday (Initial Jobless claims at 218k) + cool inflation print today.
Combine that with a FED easing cycle and we have a solid backdrop for risk assets going into Q4.
Let's see what we get 🤝
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We are still witnessing
#Bitcoin
Miner capitulation according to the Hash Ribbons, unlikely that we see any large rallies while this is ongoing. Patience is key.
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Open and close below the 20-week MA for
#Bitcoin
confirms a loss of trend for now, likely means a lot more chop and ranging for awhile unless bulls can make some magic happen in the next few hours.
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Initial Jobless Claims at 231k this morning.
Still below the cycle highs we set in June 2023.
Notice how we're usually around ~350k when we are entering recessions.
Investors seem to be overestimating the labor market weakness by focusing solely on the unemployment rate.
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#Bitcoin
bouncing pretty hard here while the S&P 500 is rolling over, don't think Bitcoin can ignore the correction in stocks for long. 🧐
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Everyone loves to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Many are ignoring the federal government's deficit spending.
The deficit so far this year (~$1.5T) is larger than the entirety of 2009 (~1.4T) when we were trying to exit the 2008 recession.
This is exactly why
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The unemployment rate came in at 4.1% today and has clearly begun expanding away from the 2 year moving average, history tells us what happens next 👀
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#Bitcoin
mania phases have always coincided with large downtrends in the DXY. The weakness in the DXY recently, thanks to the cooler than expected CPI print, is a great start.
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#Bitcoin
mania phases have always occurred during aggressive dollar devaluation. Unfortunately, this looks to be a couple of months away at the earliest.
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This is still my
#Bitcoin
value mental model for the rest of 2024, it has held up well so far.
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#Bitcoin
bulls really want to see a DXY rejection here at resistance and not a bullish reclaim, should be a fun week regardless 😎
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Hard to not be bullish
#Bitcoin
and equities in the long-term when money supply and national debt expansion look like this.
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There's a clear correlation between US National debt growth and risk assets.
The slope of debt growth continues to steepen after each "crisis".
There will be volatility along the way, but I am not willing to bet against this trend in the long-term.
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The S&P 500 is seeing some follow through on that bearish engulfing weekly candle now.
Not great for
#Bitcoin
bulls in the short-term.
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It's easy to get caught up in the current narratives, but
#Bitcoin
seems to be following it's usual summer chop pattern.
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Days like today are a great time to zoom out and remind ourselves of the big picture.
#Bitcoin
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Are we about to get reminded why it's called the "Dollar Wrecking Ball"?
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