Courtside Pal
@CourtsidePal
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is a brand new NBA Research Site for identifying trends and matchup insights. From the creator of @BallparkPal .
Joined September 2023
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Welcome to Courtside Pal - a new NBA research platform (and the cousin of
@BallparkPal
).
just launched a few minutes ago. Check it out and let us know what you think!
We’ll be posting here throughout the day about the features available on the site
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Player vs Team matchups are shown in two different ways across the site.
1 - Model Score:
The model uses machine learning to predict a team’s impact on a particular player’s stat line (% change)
2 - Performance vs player types:
How teams rank vs players with similar profiles
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Some notable matchups for tonight’s slate based on the new Courtside Pal player types and matchup model:
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The core of are the Player and Team pages, which are meant to be a one-stop shop for digesting trends, splits, and matchup insights.
The site is conveniently laid out to access these pages from anywhere you see a player or team listed.
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Here’s some analysis after blowout city last night. The players and teams most affected by blowouts this season:
I’m calling it a blowout if the teams are separated by 15+ points the entire 2nd half.
Boston leads the league with 6 but last night was the first one they lost
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One month ago, Victor Wembanyama's minutes got cut by 20%. Since then he's lead the NBA in production per minute (fantasy pts).
He just turned 20 and has played 34 NBA games
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The Bulls allow the 5th fewest FG makes in the NBA, but they're one of the worst defenses against spot up 3-point specialists (sh0 and sh1 players).
That weakness corresponds to Grayson Allen (sh1) tonight, who is 19/30 from three in his last 4 games.
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The hottest and coldest players right now on a per-minute basis (points, rebounds, assists).
From
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Some notable matchups for Sunday according to Courtside Pal player types.
Detailed info about each type:
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The Pacers and Kings are the two fastest teams to shoot in the NBA
Indiana: 10.53 seconds until 1st shot
Sacramento: 10.57
They match up tonight in Indiana. Model outputs from listed below:
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Teams that allow more points typically allow fewer rebounds. The teams that allow a high combination of BOTH points and rebounds:
Jazz: 115.7 pts/game, 54.3 reb/game
Nets: 115.4, 54.3
Warriors: 115.9, 53.1
Raptors: 116.6, 51.3
Knicks: 112.9, 55.4
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Indiana looks like a solid matchup for Jerami Grant tonight.
Matchup Model:
Points: +6%
Free throw attempts: +21%
Pacers allow 1st most points to sc7
He scored 34 points vs IND on 11/27 and put up 30 on BKN last game.
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The most unique aspect of are the custom player types - a new way to group similar players together beyond just their position.
Each player is assigned a 0-9 group for different roles. For example, sh0 (shooting = 0) are guys that mostly shoot threes ⬇️.
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The hottest and coldest players on a per-minute basis (Points, Rebounds, Assists).
Based on the player’s last 5 games vs their previous 15.
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Some notable matchups for tonight’s 13-game slate. The last full one before the all-star break
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Courtside Pal mines possession-level data to track performance for all the various player units (5-man, 4-man, 3, 2, 1).
You can find these breakdowns on the “Teams & Units” page as well as the individual team pages.
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Team performance on back-to-backs vs 2+ days rest (measured by fantasy points per game):
Miami and Washington are worst with about 12% less fantasy production.
Golden State and and Minnesota are the only 2 teams with better performance on 0 days rest.
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Collin Sexton broke out in December from a scoring perspective, and took his playmaking to another level in January.
He’s averaging 57% more assists-per-minute since January 1st (0.238 vs 0.151).
He’s listed at 5.5 Assists tonight vs MIL which he’s gone over in 7 of his last 8
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Jarrett Allen’s production has spiked to an insane level over his last 7 games:
21.0 pts | +61% per minute
15.7 reb | +40%
5.0 ast | +86%
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You can easily view splits on team and player pages. Here’s Indiana’s performance against each team this season. Just type “opponent” in the filter bar and sort by whichever stat you want.
Other factors are home/away, days rest, won/lost, month, and day of week.
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The fastest and slowest offenses this season (seconds until first shot). Including the player they are fastest or slowest with while on the court.
Taken from
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Here's a shot at defining the most and least consistent players this year on a per-minute basis.
Using games the player had 25+ minutes, dividing the std dev by the player's avg.
Most Consistent:
Fantasy: Nikola Jokic
Points: Bam Adebayo
Least:
F: Herbert Jones
P: Kyle Lowry
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The Pacers face Atlanta tonight who they’ve scored over 150 points against in each of their 2 games this season
Notable matchups (Haliburton out):
McConnell: ATL 1st most AST to pm9
Turner: ATL 1st most PTS to sh5
Mathurin: ATL 1st most PTS to sh5
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The 25 Players with the biggest home/away splits this season, by fantasy-points-per-minute (FD).
Players need at least 10 games home and away with 20+ minutes to qualify
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The “Hot and Cold” page shows which players have been streaking (in either direction). It’s based on a player’s last 5 games vs the previous 15.
Stats included are FD, DK, points, rebounds, assists, and steals+blocks
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Performance of the night goes to SGA. Not often you see a stat line like this with 0 turnovers.
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Maybe this is what Courtside Pal should have been 🤔
there really needs to be an account that informs us of who’s sitting courtside nightly
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Isaiah Hartenstein is getting more minutes since Mitchell Robinson got injured, but his per-minute production has jumped way up also, especially over his last 8
Per-minute (last 8 vs pre injury):
FanDuel points: +19%
Rebounds: +32%
Steals + Blocks: +43%
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Then we break down how different teams have performed against each player type.
For example, Toronto has allowed the most points to sh0 players:
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Here's a look at how rest between games has affected team performance this season.
Predictably back-to-backs have the largest effect (not much difference between 1 and 2+ days).
While teams do allow 1.3% more points on 0 days rest, their own production is most affected (green).
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Alperen Sengun has won CS Pal Performance of the Night the past 2 days - the first time that’s happened this season.
Here are the top 20 performances on a back-to-back in the past 4 years (Sengun 4th):
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Jimmy Butler is currently
#1
in every hot/cold category except points. Getting fewer minutes and taking fewer shots, but way up in everything else:
Last 5 per-game vs year avg:
Min: -18%
Pts: -15%
Reb: +26%
Ast: +55%
Stl: + 95%
Blk: +142%
FD: +20%
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Ended with 37 pts and 11 FTA - his 2nd highest point total of the year and 3rd most free throw attempts
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Most Performance of the Night appearances on this season 👑
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Onyeka Okongwu is making the most of his extra time on the court with Clint Capela out. He’s doubled his points/gm over the past five and has a favorable matchup today vs Houston according to the model (+10% points)
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Brandon Miller is in the middle of an insane stretch and has basically doubled his stats across the board over the past 5 games.
He’s shooting a lot more with LaMelo out but also more efficiently. 50 FGA in his last 2 games at nearly 50%.
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@thepuffininn
There eventually will be projections but not exactly sure when. Actually mentioned this in a BP post this morning:
Thanks to everyone for supporting the launch of
@CourtsidePal
this week.
The site will eventually look more like Ballpark Pal - simulations, odds, projections, etc. But all that was too much to pack into the initial release.
Hopefully you find this first version useful
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@carltrades
Yeah hopefully soon. I wanted to get a first basket page out with the launch but didn’t quite get there
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@DFSMLBWeather
@BallparkPal
I think because his per-minute production was already pretty high before his last 5
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@jetsfansince94
@webdevirv
@mraintfamousyet
Sure thing, happy to answer more questions when/if you have them
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@BetEViscerator
Yeah I will at some point but focused heavy on baseball at the moment. Hopefully will have some time to circle back and do it soon
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@JustinM45
Fixed for Gafford… looks like the way I’ve set this up is players have to have played 1 game with the new team before updating… not ideal so will see if I can fix that
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@iBOTwhatYOUwant
SH is about the types of shots players take (ignoring the outcomes). Dunk, fast break, driving, step back, tip, etc.
SC is about where a player’s points come from (threes, twos, free throws, close, mid-range) and accounts for skill level. 0-9 is generally in order of skill, not
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@RichStuffington
@BallparkPal
The matchup model expects 8.2% more assists vs his average. This is explained on the main page.
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You can find more info about the different player types here:
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@WeDemHeels
@BallparkPal
Thanks a lot, glad it’s useful for you. Yeah, this first version of the site is pretty basic but the plan is to have game sims, projections, live odds, etc just like BP
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@tomdean93
The model is a forward-looking prediction. It factors in a variety of things in addition to the player types.
The player type rankings are based on what’s happened so far this year, without any sort of statistical prediction. They generally correlate but not unusual to be a
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@nyb_23
It looks like he’s an SC3, but “sc” refers to scoring type. So probably not that relevant for steals. Happy to clarify further if needed
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@raymundo1225
Yeah that makes sense and I think I can add that to the team page. Will try to get that in place soon.
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@FrenchToasted66
@BallparkPal
Thanks. Maybe football next season, probably not hockey anytime soon
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@tmacgruber21
Because it’s based on % change and you get higher percents for guys that don’t shoot that often. Like if a center shoots 0.2 threes per game and the mode expects him to shoot 0.3 that’s a 50% increase. It’s an annoying thing that I haven’t figured out how to make better yet
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@carltrades
@BallparkPal
Appreciate this. Yeah I think that's all very doable. Let me see what I can do
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@JesusLizard89
I don't have pace specifically but it looks like they've scored about 10 fewer points on 0 days rest this year:
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@nyb_23
The 1 and 3 means the Hawks are worst in the league vs sh5 and third worst vs sc3 (Scottie’s types). So yes, that would suggest a good matchup for him in terms of points.
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@BullsBolts
Unfortunately haven't had the bandwidth to get this done with most of my focus on baseball at the moment. It's on my list though for when I'm able to get around to it
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@SpicyP99
Yeah that’s a good idea. It isn’t generally hard but I’ll need to figure out how to allow users to adjust it based on what they want. Not exactly sure how best to do it
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@who_carrs
@BallparkPal
@iowabets91
Yeah that’s the fix I made. Adding a filter to only include games for this season.
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@Jimmy_the_Gent6
It isn't on the site unfortunately. I'll probably add it though as this has come up a few times already.
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@cjracer510
@BallparkPal
There’s a description at the top of the page. It’s how the player’s last 5 games compare to their previous 15. It’s supposed to show who’s trending up/down on a per-minute basis:
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@BryanSm37527337
They are player types. Take a look at this page. There’s an explanation for every type:
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@raymundo1225
Thanks, really great to hear that. No discord yet unfortunately but good to know it could be useful
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@raymundo1225
Ok got it. So the reason I created both is because they’re meant to be two different things.
Shooting is based on the types of shots a player takes and ignores the outcome. It also looks at more than just shot distance (fast break, turnaround, driving, dunks, etc). But it has
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