Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
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One-stop shop for in-depth forecast discussions and case studies for upcoming and past severe weather events across the United States.
Joined April 2022
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With 120+ confirmed tornadoes & counting, the March 31 outbreak now ranks
#6
all time for no. of tornadoes in a 24-hr period (112). Meteorological breakdown on this & yesterday’s event coming soon; we’ll discuss how different the 2 events were despite similar background patterns.
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With 700+ severe reports (65 tornado reports), yesterday's event was incredible from a meteorological perspective. I chased the southern mode and documented the Little Rock, AR tornado at close range. I'll have a post-mortem on this event up at some point; it might be a long one!
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Can’t stress enough how significant today’s risk is, particularly from southern KS into northern/central OK. Regardless of SPC risk category, please have multiple sources of reliable weather info, heed all warnings, and have safety protocols in place. This is the real deal.
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Bona fide tornado outbreak today with several intense tornadoes, particularly across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 63 tornado reports and counting. Shows what can happen when all the ingredients are in place.
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What a textbook tornadic supercell tonight near Alta Vista, KS. I was on this storm and was able to document the broad multi-vortex tornado it produced. Will have this up sometime in the near future as a vlog in which I’ll explain my thought process throughout my chase!
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NEW CASE STUDY coming soon! We'll begin our series of breakdowns of this spring's most unique cases with the April 26 tornado outbreak that took aim at NE/IA. We'll dig into the meteorology behind the event to determine why it was such a prolific tornado producer. Stay tuned!
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Hurricane Otis has intensified 80 mph in the last 12 hours (65 mph to 145 mph) and is now expected to be a Category 5 at landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, tomorrow morning. Incredible rapid intensification that the hurricane models completely missed.
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SPC has upgraded to HIGH RISK (level 5/5) for parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma for today's event. Working on a new forecast video as we speak.
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Brief but strong tornado just now as a supercell merged with a bow echo near Leuders, TX. This kind of interaction can often lead to an increase in the chances for tornadogenesis.
#txwx
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SPC has upgraded tomorrow's risk to a Moderate (level 4/5) centered on Ohio given increasing confidence in strong/long-track tornadoes. Some concerns still remain over destabilization and storm mode, but the potential for all significant hazards is on the table.
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18z observed sounding at Norman, OK, is an absolutely classic loaded gun profile with intensifying low-level shear. Not good for Oklahoma.
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My 2023 tornado season forecast will be released some time this afternoon…we’ll discuss some really interesting research and present some analog years that match up closely with our current/expected situation. Stay tuned!
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What was conditional all-hazards risk has turned into tornado outbreak across IN/OH. Multiple discrete supercells developed in very favorable environment for intense tornadoes w/ deep moisture & strong low-level shear, as seen in this evening's observed sounding @ Wilmington, OH.
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Such a cool satellite loop showing the shadow from the moon as it eclipsed the sun this morning!
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Saturday is beginning to look quite interesting. A bimodal severe setup is possible as the trough ejects, reminiscent of past significant severe setups with a primary surface low north and secondary surface low south, as described in the Davies (2017) paper on the Joplin tornado.
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Some pretty strong wording from NWS Wichita regarding Saturday’s potentially significant severe threat. NWS offices rarely use such strong wording, but Saturday is shaping up to be a high-impact day across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in particular.
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New case study coming soon on the May 24, 2011, tornado outbreak centered on Oklahoma. We'll discuss the meteorology behind the event and some of the unique behaviors the violent tornado-producing supercells exhibited. Stay tuned!
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For those of you who have asked for breakdown videos of the tornado events of April 26-27 and last night, they are in the works! However, they may take a while, as I am currently in the middle of my storm chase tour guide gig for the season, leaving me little free time.
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Amazing radar data coming out of Taiwan as Super Typhoon Gaemi, initially barreling straight toward NE Taiwan coast, made full loop just offshore before finally making landfall. This was induced by Taiwan's very mountainous terrain & has been documented before [Hsu et al. (2018)]
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New case study coming soon...my fellow weather geeks will know which one this is!
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Multi-day severe event begins in earnest tomorrow. Significant tornadoes, giant hail possible across parts of KS/OK/TX tomorrow before threat shifts E Fri. Second trough moves in Sat-Sun w/ some potential for a tornado outbreak contingent on early convection. More info to come.
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April 26 case study coming tomorrow!
NEW CASE STUDY coming soon! We'll begin our series of breakdowns of this spring's most unique cases with the April 26 tornado outbreak that took aim at NE/IA. We'll dig into the meteorology behind the event to determine why it was such a prolific tornado producer. Stay tuned!
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With a bit of a lull in the weather across the US, I've got a new case study in the works on the infamous Moore, OK, EF5 tornado from May 20, 2013. We'll discuss the background pattern as well as some of the unique behaviors that this supercell and tornado exhibited. Stay tuned!
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Just surpassed one million lifetime views on the Convective Chronicles YouTube channel. Thank you all so much!
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LINK:
My 2023 tornado season forecast is out...we'll attempt to forecast tornado frequency and distribution for the upcoming season (March-June) using global climate teleconnections, Gulf of Mexico sea surface temps, SW drought, and several analogs.
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SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across KS/OK tomorrow. Several long-track, destructive tornadoes are expected from discrete supercells forming on the dryline. As mentioned in the outlook, the degree of storm coverage is the only thing precluding a High Risk for now.
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Incredible day from a meteorological perspective, especially across Oklahoma, where multiple tornadic supercells exhibited some incredible behavior. Hope to have a breakdown up on this event in the coming days.
#okwx
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Thankfully we’ve avoided the worst case scenario thus far, but we’re far from out of the woods. This line, as well as any isolated storms ahead of the line & any additional development on its southwest flank, will continue to pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds tonight.
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SPC has increased severe probs for Mon 4-1 from the Red River to the St Louis, MO area. Model discrepancy remains, but confidence exists in a widespread severe weather event Mon; all hazards are possible. The threat shifts east into the Appalachians on Tues. More updates to come.
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New case study coming soon on the Parkersburg, IA, EF5 from May 25, 2008. Stay tuned!
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SPC upgrades to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for tomorrow across parts of KS/OK. Here, supercells posing risk for giant hail & strong/long-track tornadoes expected tomorrow PM. Farther N, quick transition to line should limit overall risk, but all hazards psbl, incl strong tornadoes
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Thx to those who voted in yesterday's poll; the Twister meteorology breakdown video is a go! We'll analyze the characteristics/behaviors of each storm/tornado & we also might try to recreate the synoptics that spawned the fictional outbreak w/ clues sprinkled throughout the film.
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LINK:
In-depth breakdown of the April 26, 1991, tornado outbreak that included the infamous Andover, KS, F5 and the Red Rock, OK, F4, among many others. We'll take a deep dive into the meteorology behind this outbreak to determine why it was so prolific.
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Today is the first day of Meteorological Spring! Here's to a safe, fruitful season for storm chasers filled with supercells and tornadoes over open fields.
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Looks like the significant/long-track tornado threat may be winding down now that the storm mode is finally becoming more unfavorable. Quite the interesting event that caught a lot of forecasters (including me) off guard. Will be working on a breakdown video over the coming days.
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Why the abundance of photogenic tornadoes outside the Enhanced Risk yesterday? Classic cold-core setup developed across E NE/NW IA, where closed 500mb low w/ cold air aloft coincided w/ adequate moisture feeding into nearby sfc low to yield several low-topped tornadic supercells.
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SPC maintains Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for Mon 4-1 across parts of OK/KS/AR/MO. Initial supercells expected to quickly morph into squall line w/ all hazards possible, especially large hail in the stronger cores and sig damaging wind. Threat shifts east on Tues 4-2. Video later!
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While we had a few tornadic storms, yesterday’s severe wx event across the Deep South didn’t quite meet expectations for strong tornadoes. However, SPC once again did a great job w/ the placement of the highest risk area. Who’s interested in a breakdown video on this event?
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LINK:
My 2024 Tornado Season Forecast is LIVE! In it, we'll use modulating factors such as global climate teleconnections to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution across the United States for the upcoming 2024 tornado season (March-June).
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New case study coming soon on the March 2, 2012, tornado outbreak, which included the infamous Henryville, IN EF-4 and the West Liberty/Salyersville, KY EF-3s. Stay tuned!
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LINK:
Meteorological breakdown of the surprise significant tornado outbreak across Indiana and Ohio yesterday. In this video, we'll discuss the meteorology behind the event and some of the reasons why this event may have outperformed expectations.
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LINK:
Forecast discussion on today's regional severe weather outbreak focused on southern Kansas and much of Oklahoma, which is expected to include the threat for multiple long-track, strong to violent tornadoes this afternoon and evening.
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LINK:
Forecast update on the potential for a significant tornado outbreak across the southern Plains today. An initial round of storms with an all-hazards risk will give way to a second round of supercells posing a risk for intense, long-track tornadoes.
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LINK:
In-depth meteorological discussion of one of the most prolific tornado outbreaks of all time: the April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak, which, fifty years ago today, spawned 148 tornadoes, 30 of which were F4/F5.
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Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for Southern California coastal areas, including Los Angeles and San Diego, as confidence in direct wind impacts from the remnants of
#HurricaneHilary
on Sunday increases.
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Difference between last severe event (4-15/16) & upcoming one: moisture quality. Last setup, warm sector had shallow moist layer beneath deep warm/dry layer...hostile for robust dryline devel. Tonight's sounding @ Brownsville had very deep moisture, will cont to advect N this wk
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Quick update on tornado stats for 2024 so far:
-Below avg for 2024 in total
-Below avg March (66 reports vs climo avg of 92)
-Avg to above avg April (184 reports vs climo avg of 212, still 1.5 wks to go)
-Clear hotspots: Midwest/OH Valley, Gulf Coast; sporadic activity elsewhere
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Severe wx outbreak on tap from Plains to Midwest starting Mon 5-6. Models converging on potent trough moving into C US, interacting w/ rich moisture. SPC has Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for Mon from S NE to N OK; all hazards possible, incl sig tornadoes. Daily severe chances follow
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NEW VIDEO coming later this week detailing what might be in store for US tornadic activity this fall and winter. We'll discuss the background pattern, how it's expected to evolve over the next several months, and how that might modulate tornadic activity across the US.
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Change of plans…Southwest cancelled my flight into Columbus, so I’ll be sitting this setup out from a chasing standpoint. Good news is that I’ll have a video up in a couple hours on today’s setup.
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This looks familiar…bimodal, potentially significant severe weather event forecast for Tuesday (4-4) from the Midwest to the ArkLaTex. Some details still need to be worked out, but multiple rounds of severe storms with all hazards possible are expected Tuesday. More soon…
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Incredible event from a meteorological perspective last night in Mississippi, will have a detailed breakdown up in the coming days. Please keep the many folks impacted in your thoughts as the lengthy recovery period begins.
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Thanks everyone for your support of my Plainfield case study today. Now that Plainfield is complete, focus turns solely to my 2024 tornado season forecast. Tentatively aiming for a Monday, February 26 release. Stay tuned!
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SPC upgrades to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) in two separate areas for today:
-N IL/SE WI for greater confidence in very large hail this afternoon/evening
-S IL/IN/OH to N KY for increased risk for significant damaging wind/tornadoes (some strong) tonight/overnight
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Potential exists for significant severe event on Mon 4-15 centered on OK. Models in unusually good agreement on negatively tilted shortwave interacting w/ rich moisture east of tight dryline. Still early in forecast process, but severe wx outbreak w/ all hazards is on the table.
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Last night, we hit the 5000 subscriber mark on the Convective Chronicles YouTube channel! A heartfelt thank you to every one of you who watches, likes, and comments on the videos and posts; your support means the world to me. Lots of new content coming up that I hope you enjoy!
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11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across Oklahoma and far north Texas thanks to increased confidence in supercells producing large to giant hail in this corridor. The strong tornado risk has also been extended southward into southern Oklahoma.
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SPC has upgraded to HIGH risk (level 5/5) in 2 areas, one in SE IA/W IL & one in E AR/N MS/SW TN. Conditions have become more favorable here for a significant outbreak of long-track, strong/violent, tornadoes. PLEASE take all warnings seriously today & have a safety plan in place
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LINK:
Meteorological breakdown of yesterday's strong tornado in Wisconsin, the first February tornado in state history. We'll discuss the meteorology behind the event, including a big reason why the storm was able to produce despite a marginal environment
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Ever wonder how landspout tornadoes work? Tomorrow, I'll be releasing a NEW VIDEO discussing what landspouts are, how they form, and how you can forecast them, along with some real-world examples. Stay tuned!
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In a rare move, SPC has initiated a special upgrade to the Day 3 outlook, bumping up Thursday’s risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) from southwest Kansas to western Oklahoma & the eastern Texas Panhandle given increasing confidence in large/giant hail & perhaps strong/intense tornadoes.
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Long-range models are showing an unfavorable pattern ahead for severe wx across the Plains. A strong high-pressure ridge will set up & stagnate over the central US between 2 troughs. This is called an "omega block," named for the pattern's similarity to the Greek letter omega (Ω)
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Heading to Ohio to chase the potent setup out there tomorrow. Going to do my best to get a new video up tomorrow morning, but it may be tough with my travel schedule. Worst case, I’ll have a detailed post up in the AM on all my socials with the possible threats & any new info.
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SPC has outlined severe risk areas for Mon-Tues of next week (4-1 & 4-2). Potent trough, attendant sfc low will interact w/ ample moisture across broad area from Midwest into S Plains Mon before risk shifts east into Ohio River Valley and Appalachians Tues. All hazards possible.
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NEW CASE STUDY this Friday, the 48th anniversary of the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, as told in the Gordon Lightfoot song of the same name. Using meteorological analysis, we'll show how "that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed when the gales of November came early."
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Multi-day severe wx outbreak on tap for Mon/Tues next week (4-15/16) from S Plains to Midwest. Potent trough will overspread rich moisture ahead of dryline, leading to all-hazards threat, possibly sig. Still too early for specifics; I'll have a video tomorrow morning w/ more info
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As we roll in to Norman this evening, that concludes my storm chasing tour season for the year. That means a return to our regular video upload schedule soon! Lots of interesting case studies on the docket from this past season…stay tuned!
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May 24, 2011 case study will be up tomorrow!
New case study coming soon on the May 24, 2011, tornado outbreak centered on Oklahoma. We'll discuss the meteorology behind the event and some of the unique behaviors the violent tornado-producing supercells exhibited. Stay tuned!
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LINK:
In-depth breakdown of the May 24, 2011 tornado outbreak centered on Oklahoma. We'll discuss the meteorology behind the event before using high-resolution radar data to analyze the unique behaviors of these supercells and tornadoes.
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LINK:
In-depth discussion of the infamous Plainfield, IL, F5 tornado of 8-28-1990. We'll discuss how the Plainfield tornado may have happened despite a seemingly unfavorable environment, as well as some interesting features of the supercell and tornado.
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Keep an eye out for my 2023 tornado season forecast early this week on the YouTube channel. Accurately forecasting tornado frequency this far out is near impossible, but we'll discuss global teleconnections/current conditions and how they may impact tornado frequency this spring.
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SPC has upgraded the southern mode for tomorrow’s event to a Moderate risk (level 4/5) for the potential for strong/long-track tornadoes overnight across SE Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and southern Missouri.
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Cheat code in action: yesterday's tornadic supercell near Sagerton, TX, occurred within a notable overlap of strong surface vorticity and 0-3km MLCAPE. Strong low-level instability was able to stretch that surface spin into the vertical more efficiently, aiding in tornadogenesis.
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LINK:
Forecast discussion on the severe wx outbreak expected across the central/southern Plains today. Supercells are expected ahead of the dryline this afternoon; the environment will become incredibly favorable for strong/violent tornadoes this evening.
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18z Wilmington, OH sounding not indicative of sig tor environment. AM convection has hampered moisture return, sapped instability across region. Sig tornado event looks less likely w/ north extent across IN/OH. More instability farther S; sig tors still psbl from S IN/C KY south.
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What an interesting event yesterday across the central/southern Plains. Highly unusual to see such a widespread severe weather outbreak over this area in mid-June. Hope to have a case study up on this event in the future.
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LINK:
In-depth breakdown of the Moore, OK, EF5 tornado of May 20, 2013. We'll discuss why this storm produced a violent tornado despite a somewhat unfavorable background pattern, as well as some interesting storm/tornado behaviors and radar features.
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Some absolute satellite porn this evening from Category 5 Hurricane
#Jova
, thankfully out over open waters in the eastern Pacific. Jova has intensified incredibly rapidly, now packing 160 mph winds with a minimum central pressure of 929 mb.
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It’s time…research for my 2024 spring tornado forecast is underway. Hope to have the video out some time in the second half of February. Stay tuned!
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NEW VIDEO coming this week detailing the prolific tornadic supercell near Akron, CO, on June 21. This storm produced up to 27 (yes, 27) tornadoes on its own; we'll dive into the background meteorology and storm behaviors that yielded such an efficient tornado producer.
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Attention turns to Tuesday (4-4), when we could see yet another round of high-impact severe wx across many of the same areas that saw the brunt of yesterday's system. Several rounds of storms with all hazards (some significant) are possible. More to come over the next few days.
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My 1990 Plainfield, IL F5 case study is coming along nicely...here's a model reanalysis sounding in proximity to Plainfield just a couple hours before the tornado occurred. Excited to share some hypotheses as to why this typical summertime environment produced a monster tornado.
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One year from today, we'll be able to experience a rare total solar eclipse. Based on these maps of severe probs for April 8 from 1982-2011 & median April cloud cover across the US, SW Texas might be your best bet for clear, storm-free skies. More info at
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Environment ahead of supercell that moved into OKC metro last night favored tornadic activity w/ strong instability & low-level shear, despite some CIN. Goes to show that ongoing, mature tornadic supercells can persist well into more hostile low-level thermodynamic environments.
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SPC has outlined severe risk for Sunday, March 24. Potent trough should bring strong wind fields atop modest moisture return across SW KS/W OK/ W TX. Initial supercells w/ all-hazards risk may morph into QLCS Sunday PM. More info in graphic; risk should move E in subsequent days.
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Bimodal severe wx outbreak forecast Friday. Strongest forcing ahead of IA sfc low; discrete supercells will evolve into QLCS w/ all hazards, including strong tornadoes & sig wind. South, long-track tornadoes psbl w/ discrete storms ahead of cold front amid intense low-level jet.
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At first glance, Friday's trough as progged (top) exhibits more favorable geometry to support discrete/strongly tornadic supercells than today's trough. Several questions remain (warm sector size, progressive nature of pertinent features, odd timing), but this bears watching.
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LINK:
In-depth case study of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak, which included the Henryville, IN EF4. We'll deep dive into the meteorology behind the Henryville storm, as well as the supercells that spawned the West Liberty/Salyersville, KY killer EF3s.
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While model discrepancy remains, forecast for multi-day severe event on track, as series of troughs should move into central/southern US, interacting w/ ample moisture over several-day stretch beginning Thurs 4-25. I hope to have initial forecast discussion video out by tmrw AM.
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SPC has outlined a severe weather risk area for Friday (April 14) from eastern KS to north TX. Moisture will surge north ahead of a dryline, sfc low, and negatively tilted upper-level trough, setting the stage for supercell development across the region. All hazards are possible.
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Hard at work on my breakdown of the December 9 tornado outbreak...such an interesting event, one that has a lot of nuances that we can learn from. Might be a touch ambitious, but I hope to have the video out some time tomorrow...stay tuned.
(And yes, I still use iMovie...)
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Forecasting yesterday's localized tornado outbreak centered on Maryland was difficult due to significant underestimation of low-level shear by models. Here's yesterday's 12z NAM forecast sounding for 8pm EDT @ Baltimore vs the observed VWP hodograph @ Baltimore just after 8pm EDT
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LINK:
In-depth discussion of the 5-31-13 El Reno, OK tornado. Discusses the meteorology behind the event before diving into tornado's behavior, incl. tornadogenesis, sub-vortices & their impact on storm research teams, the tornado's deviant motion & more.
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Updated thoughts on the widespread severe weather event expected to take place Monday and Tuesday. Bimodal threat on Monday across the Plains with all hazards possible before the threat, perhaps more potent, shifts east Tuesday. Hope to have a new video out tomorrow morning.
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LINK:
Quick meteorological breakdown of the "surprise" EF-3 tornado in NE North Carolina today. We discuss the background pattern and how an MCV played a huge role in fostering a significant tornadic supercell in an otherwise unsupportive environment.
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New video coming tomorrow in which I'll breakdown one of my past storm chases: the Kimball, NE, tornado of June 28, 2023. I'll provide commentary over my raw footage from that day, including my thought process throughout the chase & some storm features you'll see on your screen.
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LINK:
In-depth discussion of the two bimodal severe weather outbreaks on March 31 & April 4. We'll discuss the meteorology behind both outbreaks, notable storms from each, & why they were so different in their outcomes despite similar background patterns.
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Keeping a close eye on a possible return to severe wx potential across the Plains late next week. Models are hinting at a return to troughing across the western US coupled with ample moisture return. Nothing set in stone yet, but it is a pattern that should be watched closely.
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Eyeing our next potential severe event this weekend/early next week. Too soon for specifics, but confidence increasing in active jet stream w/ moisture return around then. Degree of moisture return & antecedent cold air intrusion into US lend uncertainty, but it bears watching.
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