Chess by the Numbers
@ChessNumbers
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Chess fan, spreadsheet fan, stats fan. My goal is to provide analysis that makes top level chess more fun to follow.
Eugene, OR
Joined February 2015
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My model has been updated. The odds of winning the Candidates tournaments are now projected as follows:
Gukesh Dommaraju 100%
Tan Zhongyi 100%
Congratulations to both winners!!!
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916
Carlsen has clinched a spot in the
#JuliusBaerGenerationCup
quarterfinals, so all that's left to be determined (for him) tomorrow is who his first knockout-round opponent will be. Here's the possibilities sorted by likelihood.
#ChessChamps
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Vidit and Nakamura join the 2024 Candidates field, and Giri moves into first place in the race for the FIDE Circuit qualifying spot. Big moves at the Grand Swiss, and incredibly exciting finishes!
I guess what I'm saying is: "chess"
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Last month, Argentinian youngster Faustino Oro hit a new peak rating of 2211, and after confirming his birthday today I now know that makes him the youngest 2200+ rated player of all time!
Here's the top ten youngest. Just a *little* bit of future success in the group eh ;)
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@chess24com
For anyone curious exactly how ambitious of a goal "super-GM by 15" is, here are the 10 youngest players to reach a rating of 2700+
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Gukesh now +2 through three rounds at the London Chess Classic, and if he wins sole first place he passes Anish for the FIDE Circuit lead.
However he's not the only player on +2... there is... another...
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I keep hearing a lot about how Firouzja is just destroying 2600s right now... which yes he is. But sometimes people say it in a way that implies he can't replicate it against 2700s...
In the last 13 months (since October 2020) he is 67.6% against 2700 to 2799 opposition.
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You probably don't need a computer model to tell you that Carlsen is obviously a huge match favorite now that he's +2, but here are the
#CarlsenNepo
numbers anyway. Perhaps interesting is how little ground Nepo would make up even with a bounceback win tomorrow...
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For the first time, the Candidates has an odds-on favorite! Gukesh is hardly safe though, with black against Nakamura tomorrow. All three of the players half a point behind him still have chances.
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And then there were eight. And half of them were from India. Here are the updated
#FIDEWorldCup
odds in the open section. There will be a minimum of one Indian in the Candidates Tournament, but it's only a 23% chance of just one, 59% chance of two and an 18% chance of three!!!
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Why are so many people acting as if it's bad for chess to have enthusiastic and entertaining chess streamers working hard, improving at this game we theoretically all love and inspiring tons of new (and old) players? Because of... their clothing? It's not an unsolvable mystery...
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A full THIRD of the world's top-18 are not old enough to legally drink alcohol in the United States🤯
@2700chess
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Draw rates in the last five Candidates:
2013: 32 draws, 57% draw rate
2014: 34 draws, 61% draw rate
2016: 40 draws, 71% draw rate
2018: 40 draws, 71% draw rate
2020: 32 draws, 57% draw rate
This year so far: 16 draws in the first 20 games, 80% draw rate
My poor suffering model
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It's not yet guaranteed that Nepo or Fabi will ultimately win the Candidates. There's still a 2% chance it will be someone else!
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Congratulations to
@AlirezaFirouzja
for his return to the world
#2
spot in the
@2700chess
live ratings, after his win over the world champion today!
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Okay so Ding still has to play his games to qualify and not lose too much rating along the way, and all these ratings will shift (Grand Chess Tour in May will see several of these players in action, e.g.) but here's the way-too-early
#FIDECandidates
odds :)
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Gukesh leads the FIDE Circuit! I believe* that Giri needs 13.53 to pass him, while Arjun needs 17.26 (although I want to see FIDE update the standings to be confident).
Here are the points available at WRB. Yellow/Green for Anish/Arjun targets, before considering tiebreak rules.
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The model finally has Gukesh - now sole leader with two rounds left - as a heavy favorite to take over the Circuit lead.
Two questions remain: why only 72% (intuitively this feels low, but I don't *think* there are bugs in the model) and if he does take the lead, by how much?
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Our round 11
#FIDECandidates
preview is up:
And with apologies, no, we do not have stats to measure the impact of playing bullet until 6am on one's chess the following day. One could speculate there's a reason the sample is too small to analyze though...
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I know you all want more analysis of Alireza's chances, thoughts on whether FIDE will rate his event, word on the Circuit implications of the World Rapid, etc...
But my three year old needs Millennium Falcon pancakes first. Sorry.
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Note to organizers: with a lot of talk about the exciting number of decisive games in Tata Steel, I want to say that it appears to be primarily due to the varied field. Do this more often!
Before the event, my model predicted 49 draws through 12 rounds. Actual 44. Not far off.
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Amazing that Nepo had led (or at least had a share of the lead) at the end of every round he'd ever played at the Candidates. 40 straight. Until today when he falls behind with just one round left and black against Fabi in his last game. Will he be resilient in a must-win game?
For the first time in 6 years we have a new sole leader at the Candidates.
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I can't break the specifics of the scenarios down any better than this, all of which appears accurate to me (read the whole thread). What I can do is share the odds, based on my model's estimate of each game's W/D/L chances. Also included odds of winning the event, but... shrug?
Full FIDE Grand Swiss candidates qualification scenario here ⬇️
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For Team Candidates Chaos:
After round 12 there is now a...
62.4% chance we see a sole winner
17.1% chance of a 2-way tie
20.5% chance 3 or more players tie for first!
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Look who is now OFFICIALLY the youngest 2300 ever!
For his next record attempt, Oro has until the April 1 2024 rating list to earn a published rating of 2400+ at a younger age than current record holder Nodirbek Abdusattorov (who did it at 10.53 years old)
#ProdigyWatch
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And now Gukesh moves into the
#2
Junior spot as this group just keeps trading that position back and forth!
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Firouzja beats Kamsky, and now has enough rating banked (assuming Rouen is included on the January rating list as it ought to be) to finish ahead of Wesley even if FIDE refuses to rate the Chartres matches!
🔥 Et de 6 pour Alireza Firouzja qui vient à bout de Gata Kamsky !
Avec cette nouvelle victoire, Alireza empoche environ 8 points Elo à Rouen. Ainsi, même sans l'homologation possible de Chartres, le Français dépasse Wesley So.
♟️ Revivez la partie sur
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With the December 2021 FIDE ratings list published, here is the updated list of all players to ever have a published rating of 2800+ sorted by the age at which they first achieved that milestone.
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Per FIDE, if Dominguez wants to be eligible by rating he must play outside the US. The thing is, per their actual regulations this is not a rule that exists. It's just a thing they're saying now. "If this rule is not respected" has big Cartman energy.
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Of all the ways to talk about how spectacular the
#FIDECandidates
have been for Nepo so far, for me the most striking measure is this shocking rating gain, in just 11 games
@2700chess
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On October 2nd, 2019, Teimour Radjabov beat Ding Liren in game 3 of the FIDE World Cup finals. This tied the match, which Teimour went on to win in tiebreaks.
What's notable to me is that Radjabov has not played a decisive game of classical chess since that day!
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We estimate that Magnus Carlsen has an 81.5% chance to retain his world championship crown. Lots of nitty gritty here. Wondering how the odds change with a round one draw? Or a decisive round one game? Regardless of who has white? It's here.
#CarlsenNepo
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For all the flaws in the current FIDE Candidates qualifying system, if Giri can pull off a top-three finish at the World Rapids then all eight qualifiers* will be ranked in the world top-14; not exactly a bad field.
*No Magnus won't play, but he IS a "qualifier" technically. 1/2
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The FIDE Circuit regulations don't explicitly cover everything about how the Grand Chess Tour does event tiebreaks, but I *think* I parsed out how they would score those scenarios. Assuming I got that right, enjoy this mess!
(Thanks
@chess_insights
for looking it over)
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If Firouzja locks in with white tomorrow and beats Nepo, things could suddenly get a lot more interesting - especially if any of the three players currently 1.5 points back snag a win. That's feeling like the last chance for first-place drama, but we'll see what the model says...
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Shockingly the 2% chance didn't hit. As the London Chess Classic concludes, Anish Giri retains the lead for the FIDE Circuit Candidates spot.
Congrats to Mickey Adams for winning the event, and Shreyas Royal for the GM norm!
Next up in the Candidates hunt: Dominguez at Sitges.
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I'm lazy, so I'm just gonna recycle this already-low-effort meme concept instead of thinking of a new one.
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I have initiated my simulation for odds with a Nepo draw, Fabi win, Naka win, and Gukesh win. Activate the jinx tracker.
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Important note for anyone suddenly watching Leinier Dominguez' rating. He is *not currently qualified* for the rating spot in the Candidates. He would need another Circuit-qualified *classical* event before year end to meet activity requirements for the rating spot.
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Well this is getting anticlimactic as the champ is now +3 with just 5 games left but here are the updated match win chances for
#CarlsenNepo
(our model still has Nepo winning one time out of every 1600 but...)
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Well,
@HansMokeNiemann
just found the flashiest way imaginably to cross the 2700 barrier. "I'm just gonna go beat Magnus Carlsen, with black, and take the sole lead at the Sinquefield Cup." Talk about not leaving much room for an encore ;)
But seriously, congrats Hans!!!
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As the Chennai Masters begins, there are now two active events affecting the Candidates race. Yes, I'm modeling them simultaneously. The Sitges model is super crude in guessing who Dominguez might face. The Chennai model doesn't have tiebreaks quite perfect. But it's something!
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I don't know how to explain to my model that it can't treat Nepo as a normal 2765 because this is CANDIDATES NEPO
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I'm trying to avoid too much World Rapid/Blitz analysis until we have final Chennai results, but if Gukesh wins Chennai outright then Giri needs 14.58 Circuit points to take the lead back.
Which can be earned with a top three finish at World Rapids.
@ChessNumbers
It would be interesting to know if Gukesh wins this tournament what does Anish need to do in the World rapid/blitz to regain the top spot
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@NikolaosNtirlis
@Bennyficial1
25 months from 2458 to 2660, but the fastest from <2460 to 2660+ was Giri in 24 months. Wei Yi and Jeffery Xiong did it in 26, Hans took 42 months.
But if the 200 point jump you care about is <2500 to 2700+ then Hans is fastest. You make the call how meaningful that is lol.
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Our Candidates preview is live! And over 7000 words long. Look, you have 30 hours to read it before the games start, that's enough right? Okay fine, if you don't want to read a novel the raw numbers are in this tweet too.
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@anishgiri
Oh hey
@anishgiri
you come out looking particularly dominant in the "gaining 200 points fastest" race if we look specifically at fastest from under 2475 to 2675+
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Firouzja isn't the first to gain 34 points in a month, but to do so by winning a spot in the Candidates Tournament, then leading his team to a tie for first place at the European Championships, all while catapulting to
#2
in the world rankings and becoming the youngest ever 2800?
Firouzja (2803.8, World
#2
) beats Mamedyarov and will officially reach 2800+ on 1st Dec aged 18y 5m 13d. He'll be the YOUNGEST EVER to do so. Carlsen did it when aged 18y 11m 2d. Kasparov was 26. Firouzja's TPR in his last 20 games is 2913 📷 Lennart Ootes
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Here are Tournament Performance Ratings (TPR) for everyone at the
#FTXCryptoCup
through three rounds.
@ChampChessTour
(The record for a full tournament so far this season is 2852 by Giri at the Chessable Masters)
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Oops, I ran this yesterday and thought I'd posted it, but I hadn't. Tata Steel odds after four rounds!
Giri is now the favorite in the Masters, and presumably spent the off day working on his petition to FIDE to retroactively make the Circuit 13 months long and count Tata 2024.
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Just for any of you out there who thrive on chaos, I want it noted that in one of my 10,000 simulations of the Candidates after round 8, there was ultimately a SIX-WAY TIE for first place on 7.5 points.
So it may not be likely but it is mathematically possible.
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For the next few days, I would really love it if
@2700chess
could track two versions of Alireza's live rating: where he's at if the Chartres matches are rated and where he's at if they're not.
I don't want to have to remember how many points to subtract every time I check lol.
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I am thrilled to have partnered with the
@ChampChessTour
to provide official Tour ratings, projected results for tournaments in progress, and a variety of other stats (some still tbd) to support the broadcasts!
The 2022 Meltwater Champions Chess Tour starts tomorrow with the
#AirthingsMasters
, and there are some twists!
@dsmerdon
's Fighting Chess Index will reward fighting chess, while
@ChessNumbers
will help us track online ratings:
#c24live
#ChessChamps
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This graphic is just a fancy way of saying my model always gave Hari a 23.5% chance of winning in round 7. Under current tournament circumstances Gukesh's chances are probably higher (maybe much higher), as the draw rate assumptions are different when he only needs a draw w/black
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Apparently Wesley deletes his account and all of Twitter crashes
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Arjun won the only decisive game at Chennai and is back within a half point of the leaders - but remember that unlike Gukesh (with the same score but higher odds) he must win *outright* and there are only four rounds left. Parham officially can no longer catch Wesley this event.
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Not *so* small a sample at 16 games.
@GMHikaru
has a performance rating of 2847 in those games!
@ChessNumbers
I know it's a small slice sample, but what is Hikaru's performance rating so far in the two legs of the Grand Prix he has played?
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With these pairings, my model is up and running. Ding is favored, but in that "79% chance he doesn't win" way, so it's awfully wide open among the Masters. We're in for a fun ride!!!
BREAKING | 2024 Tata Steel Masters pairings ♟️
With the draw of lots, the pairings for the 1st round of the Masters have been announced during the opening ceremony of the
#TatasteelChess
Tournament 2024. This promises an exciting 1st round tomorrow!
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With five players now within half a point of first place, it looks like the Candidates Tournament now has about a 36% or 37% chance of going to playoffs, including maybe about a 13% chance that we get 3 or more players participating in the tiebreaks. Model's still running...
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Without going into detail about the rather opaque scoring rules for the FIDE Circuit, can we just admire that only 12 scores have been posted so far this year of 20+ points, and fully a third of them belong to
@FabianoCaruana
!
His YTD performance rating is 2810, the world's best
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Well I guess this gives us a good reason to share that Firouzja's way-too-early purely live rating based odds of winning the Candidates are around 25%.
Once we polish everything and launch the real model, I suppose we'll also have to keep a close eye on odds of 2nd place too...
Carlsen announces that his match against Nepomniachtchi likely was his last, unless Firouzja wins the Candidates: "It’s been clear to me for most of the year that this World Championship should be the last. It doesn’t mean as much anymore as it once did."
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Two wins today! Abhimanyu Mishra is on a 4.5/5 score, and if he gets to 7/9 he'll become the youngest GM of all time. Exact odds still depend on pairings, but he probably has around a 60% chance now of pulling it off during this current event.
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What do you do next after "pulling a Fabi" by starting a tournament 7/7? I guess just literally beat Fabi himself.
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Gata Kamsky is the only chess prodigy to ever be ranked in the TOP TEN at age 16.
There are five others, though, who at least broke into the top twenty at that age. How many of the "other" five can YOU name?
PS I love the monthly top 20 lists available at
@2700chess
;)
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@NikolaosNtirlis
Well 11 to 19.25 is a much longer age range than I looked at (that particular chart was rating based not age based). I definitely have questions about why those ages were chosen, my graphs were mostly meant to *demonstrate* how possible it is to cherry pick data 1/2
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Here's the model after Gukesh won today to join the leaders (and it's just a two-way tie as Sjugirov lost)
Gukesh needs any two-way tie, a three-way tie and not third on TBs, or a 4/5-way tie if he wins on TBs
Sitges no longer relevant; Firouzja not yet modeled...
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Something to think about amidst questions of "how did Nepo do so badly" is that his performance rating was 2722 in the match. Below his standards but a player with that rating would be top-25 in the world. I know, a few specific blunders color the perception, but...
#CarlsenNepo
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My model gives Gukesh a 2% chance of hitting this trifecta. Feel free to post "so you're saying there's a chance" memes as you see fit.
Going into tomorrow's final round of the
#LondonChessClassic
Gukesh still has a theoretical chance of taking sole 1st place & overtaking Giri in the Candidates race... but only if he beats Niemann, Adams loses to Royal, and Moussard fails to win!
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Mathematically, a three-way tie for second place isn't a great spot when you NEED to win clear first, and a tie isn't enough. Here are Gukesh's odds of clear first in London, per my model, based on live ratings (left) or if you think his "true strength" is "actually" 2750 (right)
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Finally the
#FIDEGrandPrix
daily updates can come to a pause. Congratulations to
@GMHikaru
for winning leg 1! Here are all players' current odds of reaching the Candidates Tournament, depending on how the next two legs go. We can see this was just the prelude to coming drama!
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My two year old just played his first ever game of BLINDFOLD chess. 1. a4 e5 2. h4 d5 3. h5 Nc6 4. Rh4 0-1 (Technically he didn't resign after hanging the rook, he just said he wanted to play his ukulele and that was that).
What matters is that I won.
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Topline results are that our model gives Firouzja 95%, Fabi 90%, and Oparin 10% chances to qualify for Candidates at lowish sample sizes. Running additional sims now, and then will break down specific tiebreak scenarios later, but the baby is awake now so please be patient!
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How exactly could Rapport *not* qualify for the Candidates at this point? Our model's 3.3% risk relies on three things happening.
1) Someone with 7 points now (Giri, MVL, or Dominguez) wins Leg 3
2) Nakamura wins his group and A) loses in the semis or B) loses in the final
1/3
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With his round 8 win
@AlirezaFirouzja
is now in sole first place at the
#SinquefieldCup
- at least pending the finish of the other games.
Is he going to win the full trifecta - first in the blitz, first in the rapid, AND first in the classical in his first St. Louis trip???
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Huge wins for both Nakamura and Aronian at the
#FIDEGrandPrix
keeping Group A chaotic, but quite likely to ultimately produce a Candidates qualifier. Also a number of longshots were officially eliminated today, as the chances of qualifying on 13 to 15 GP points went to zero.
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Wesley is just begging Anish to Tweet at him any time Dominguez gets a winning position in December lol.
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And now Vincent Keymer joins the 2700 club as well! This list of top juniors is just getting more and more spectacular (there's a 2687.1 live rating off screen that may well hit this same milestone soon himself...)
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At this point the model has just thrown up its metaphorical hands at the Masters, with its 3-way tie for 1st and 4 other players half a point back. Anything could happen, so we just have to watch.
Surprisingly, there is still a 60% chance someone eventually wins sole first place
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Absolute vintage Magnus, grinding out a win from a theoretically drawn endgame, and the world champion is now +1 in his effort to defend the title, making him a 92% match favorite! Here we can see how those odds could shift with game 7's result.
#CarlsenNepo
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In both sections a huge favorite just had to avoid losing in round 12 to remain a huge favorite. They both lost.
Now we have a new huge favorite in the Challengers (thanks to a favorable final-round pairing) and an utter mess in the Masters. It's going to be tremendous to watch!
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Okay, this one's for team Candidates Chaos, here is how many people might tie for first place after 14 rounds of play.
With five players now within half a point of first place, it looks like the Candidates Tournament now has about a 36% or 37% chance of going to playoffs, including maybe about a 13% chance that we get 3 or more players participating in the tiebreaks. Model's still running...
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We finally have a passable model for the
#FIDEGrandPrix
to project results across all three legs, and most importantly who is most likely to earn berths in the Candidates. Given the complex and unique format this model is not perfect, but we think it's good enough for a baseline.
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Ugh, I was watching a baseball game last night and they had the score, the baserunners, and even the pitch count right there on screen the whole time. Don't they know I'm watching to get better at baseball, and can't do so if I'm not figuring all that stuff out for myself?
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Interestingly, Niemann v Firouzja tomorrow will NOT be a battle of the two highest rated 19-year-olds in the world because, well, happy birthday to Arjun Erigaisi!!! The new
#2
at age 19, while Nihal Sarin now gets a 15 day stint as the world's strongest 18-year old.
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In the last five Candidates Tounaments, three eventual winners won their first game. The other two opened with (one or two) draws and then won their first decisive game.
That said, there's a reason we run our sim 100,000 times, not 5 times. A player *can* come back from a loss.
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Even after first round losses in Chennai, it's mathematically possible for Arjun to take sole first, or for Parham to finish 5.5/6 and still take the rating lead, but their odds took giant hits today.
Meanwhile Dominguez beat a 2434 at Sitges and is still on Wesley's heels.
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Rapport is through to the finals at the
#FIDEGrandPrix
with his opponent still to be determined in tiebreaks. But his task is far from complete. Should he win the finals he'll rise to 94 to 98% to reach the Candidates, but a loss puts him down to just 20 to 23%.
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6 players are within a half point of the lead in the Tata Steel Masters, but some of them have significantly easier remaining schedules than the others, per the model, and that is driving the differences in odds.
Nevertheless it's wide open as we pass the halfway point.
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Sorry it was a little delayed, but here's our round 5 preview:
We take a look at where things stand now, how they're likely to go, and one unlikely but extra spicy scenario!
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Ju Wenjun gave some much needed breathing room to Anish Giri at the top of the Masters standings, and he's closing in on "odds-on favorite" status.
Meanwhile Eline Roebers completely shook up the Challengers standings. Suddenly tomorrow's game between L'Ami and Korobov is huge!
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Pragg is still on fire (3020 performance rating), but our model still prefers Carlsen to ultimately win the
#OsloEsportsCup
However it all really depends on what happens in their showdown tomorrow, check out this what-if chart to see how high those stakes are!
@ChampChessTour
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My Candidates odds are now publicly available here, for those of you who have been waiting to see them.
I am biased, but this is a quality piece based on
@ChessNumbers
's model on the Candidates winning probability and feedback from four top grandmasters. Who will challenge Ding Liren?
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Nodirbek has the easiest remaining schedule of the four players tied for first in the Masters, and Wei Yi has the easiest schedule among the players half a point back, so here's where things stand for now.
Maurizzi on the other hand is odds-on favorite with a full point lead.
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Here are our updated
#fidecandidates2022
odds after round 9. Full preview article won't be out until tomorrow, as we take some time to adjust the model's reporting so that it can also tell us odds of a second place finish, but enjoy these topline results for now.
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Top juniors live ratings from
@2700chess
coming into today. With Niemann, Abdusattorov, and Keymer all competing at the Prague Challengers which started today. Gonna be a fun race to see who hits 2700 first!
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97
Raise your hand if you literally don't even care that my model is probably going to list
@GMHikaru
as the new tournament favorite after this round (no jinx?)
3
4
97