Chandler Trades
@ChandlerTrading
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Futures & Options Trader | Wave + Supply/Demand | HTF Thesis + Reversal Structure + LTF Entry Model | Not Financial Advice | 🎯
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- ELLIOTT WAVE GUIDE -
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Get started with Elliott Wave analysis and learn how to apply it the RIGHT WAY 🎯
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Just finished my
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Feel free to share the link if you find it helpful. Enjoy!
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$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep01
Still tracking the large flat, same expected outcome
In the short term, I expect a quick sweep of ATH within this B-wave
As always, a trend shift will be mandatory before I hunt shorts within this thesis.
$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug21
Here we are, arrival to B-wave territory... admittedly much quicker than expected
My view, which is surely unpopular, is that this rally is corrective for the B-wave of a large flat
I'm open to a bit more upside, but skeptical/cautious beyond that...
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$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep07
A sharp move lower to end the week... While I'd love to say the B-wave is in, this downside is still corrective. Not impulsive as C-should be
Therefore, I still suspect one more poke higher to complete B...Below 5300, I'll consider a more direct route
$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep01
Still tracking the large flat, same expected outcome
In the short term, I expect a quick sweep of ATH within this B-wave
As always, a trend shift will be mandatory before I hunt shorts within this thesis.
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$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug21
Here we are, arrival to B-wave territory... admittedly much quicker than expected
My view, which is surely unpopular, is that this rally is corrective for the B-wave of a large flat
I'm open to a bit more upside, but skeptical/cautious beyond that...
$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug11
To preface, I have a bear alt that is still in play below 5432
But, my lean here is that last week's low marked the end of an A-wave within a large flat.
I do not believe the downside is done, but this retrace could extend, especially if 5432 is met
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$SPX Monthly
For added context to my outlook, here's my monthly count
I'm NOT suggesting markets will collapse into a decade long bear market... I'm just not convinced wave IV is done just yet (see my pinned video for more on that)
Still mega bullish long term
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$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug13
Still tracking this large flat. No changes...
I expect an ((X)) wave pullback around the corner before rallying higher within the large B-wave.
Ultimately, I expect this corrective B-wave to be a major bull trap.
$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug11
To preface, I have a bear alt that is still in play below 5432
But, my lean here is that last week's low marked the end of an A-wave within a large flat.
I do not believe the downside is done, but this retrace could extend, especially if 5432 is met
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VIDEO UPDATE - $ES $NQ $RTY
• Many early bears are calling this the last chance for a reversal. Many capitulating... Just as price reaches the supply/fib targets
• I am now starting to look for a reversal
• All the details of my thesis & approach are in this video. Enjoy!
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Dec13
New highs ✅
Reversal ✅
• Next step for the bears is to take out last week's low and get some impulsive downside action
• FOMC tomorrow, so we still need to stay nimble
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Dec12
•No changes. Still looking for the same outcome
• I suspect the Dec07 low will get swept before the rally, but it's a coin flip with CPI tomorrow
• I'm risk free at the moment. Just gonna see where CPI takes us and go from there
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$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep14
Bear trap for the ((X))-wave... ✅
Bull trap for the B-wave... Pending
Still looking for an eventual sweep of the August high/ATH to complete B, before resolving lower within the flat
In the meantime, I'll be focused on lower timeframe opportunity
$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep07
A sharp move lower to end the week... While I'd love to say the B-wave is in, this downside is still corrective. Not impulsive as C-should be
Therefore, I still suspect one more poke higher to complete B...Below 5300, I'll consider a more direct route
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1D
From 3D supply to 3D demand...👋
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep4
Price essentially paused @ the 0.618 + 1.272 fib ext since Tuesday. Bulls crept through 4H supply, but right into 3day
No reason to change my outlook at the moment, patiently waiting & watching to see if a reversal forms here...
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HOW I TRADE - VIDEO
• An introduction into how I trade + how YOU can understand and benefit from my charts
--> <---
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VIDEO UPDATE - $ES $NQ $RTY
• A review of my outlook and how I approach these situations
• I'm taking some time off from twitter, so I leave you with this
• I'll be back in July. Trade well, stay nimble! 🍻
VIDEO UPDATE - $ES $NQ $RTY
• Many early bears are calling this the last chance for a reversal. Many capitulating... Just as price reaches the supply/fib targets
• I am now starting to look for a reversal
• All the details of my thesis & approach are in this video. Enjoy!
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$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug11
To preface, I have a bear alt that is still in play below 5432
But, my lean here is that last week's low marked the end of an A-wave within a large flat.
I do not believe the downside is done, but this retrace could extend, especially if 5432 is met
$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - July 31
Awesome rally today within what I'm tracking as a flat for the (B) wave...
My view remains that this is a bull trap with the (C) wave still to come
A reversal structure is MANDATORY before I can hunt shorts. Let's see if sellers step in...
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It was a tricky week... So I've decided to make this 'Weekend Prep' free & open to everyone
Thanks for all the kindness and support. I'll be out of town for a few days and back later in the week
Have a great weekend everyone✌️
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2D
• Macro outlook (from JUNE14) still tracking beautifully
• Looking for this (A) wave to conclude shortly before the corrective (B) wave to daily supply
• Have a great week! 🤝
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H/2D - Jun14
Choppy action into the fib cluster. Still within monthly demand
Certainly not trying to catch a knife, but watching for a reversal to develop from this zone
If a reversal does form here, I'll be looking for a solid bear market rally towards 4350⛈
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Twitter has gone from extreme fear to extreme greed in just 35pts $ES
The same people saying they were all cash now saying their calls will print
😂😂
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The longer you trade, the more you'll realize this game is mostly 'You vs You'
Finding an edge is difficult - Overcoming your greed, fear & lack of discipline and allowing your edge to play out... is much harder
Find an edge, then get out of your own way ✅
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A word of encouragement:
Many are struggling to navigate this market. New traders, experienced traders, everyone in between. I’ve been in a *disgusting* slump in my swing accts for the 4-5 weeks, I’ve had countless “A+” setups fail... Trust me, I share your frustrations...
1/3
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Newsletter posted!
Big start for the bears, but we still have to get through FOMC. Stay focused!
Tonight's update is free & open to all - thanks for all your support - have a great night ✌️
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$SPX Daily
Let’s ignore waves for a sec... we are right above:
✅Cloud support
✅Trend-line support
✅Golden zone
✅55 MA
All with hidden bullish divergence. Let’s all take a deep breath. The sky isn’t falling...
*unless we break 3692 then the sky might be falling*
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2H - Oct25
• Structure looking nearly complete here. Max caution now, waiting for the start of the 'X-Wave'
• All out of longs, waiting for a reversal for shorts
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2H - Oct24
• NQ found 2H demand, ES truncated early. The final leg of wave-W has likely begun
• There's room to chop towards 3900 but it DOES NOT HAVE TO GET ALL THE WAY THERE
• My foot is off the gas, I'll be cautious from here awaiting the X wave pullback
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$TSLA 1W
This 3W supply could do some damage. Watching for a test of the 0.618 then a reversal
$TSLA 2D
IF price rejects from 2D supply we'll have to strongly consider this possibility
This would also have some significant bearish implications for the indices
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$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Apr20
4999 swept ✅
Now looking for a retrace towards the overhead supply/fib zones - a major AOI for the next leg down
Mid term target = Weekly demand @ 4723
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H - Apr16
Demand @ 5121 was reached and taken out with relative ease
Sellers have control of trend and the S/D equation, with wave also allowing for continuation lower (to weekly demand & beyond)
The next short-ish term objective... 4999
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Guess tomorrow’s $SPY closing price to close out 2020👇
6 months free membership for the closest guess. Must like & RT to qualify
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$AMZN 4H
I think AMZN is about to do something crazy... stock split anyone?
It's a 'now or never' situation in my opinion. I'd like to see Friday's low hold
$AMZN 4H
So far, right on track
I expect $AMZN 4,000 within 2 months of the wave 2 completion
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 12H - Feb04
A 200pt rally from 1H demand, all price & structural targets fulfilled
Now, I think it's time for the bears to have some fun. Next quality demand is the weekly zone 300pts below
No shorts until there's a reversal structure, but on high alert here
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 12H - Jan16
Still looking for another leg up, as long as 1H demand below holds. I'd love a quick sweep into demand followed by a rally.
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$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep24
ATHs reached w/a 350pt rally off the ((X))-wave bear trap
Still expecting a bit more upside before a potential reversal. As always, I won't attempt to catch a top. I'll wait for a trend shift
*Adjusted for contract roll. This is the December contract
$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep14
Bear trap for the ((X))-wave... ✅
Bull trap for the B-wave... Pending
Still looking for an eventual sweep of the August high/ATH to complete B, before resolving lower within the flat
In the meantime, I'll be focused on lower timeframe opportunity
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H -- Oct4
• Arrival to supply is nearly vertical, the blue path showed yesterday is in play
• If the expanded flat is going to play out, we should see a reversal right around here
• No need to jump the gun, just waiting for a reversal structure
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 3H -- Oct3
• Arrival at 3H supply into the close
• With the 3-wave structure down, it's likely we're still in an expanded/running flat w(4)
• Looking for one more sweep of the lows to (finally) finish w3
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep4
Price essentially paused @ the 0.618 + 1.272 fib ext since Tuesday. Bulls crept through 4H supply, but right into 3day
No reason to change my outlook at the moment, patiently waiting & watching to see if a reversal forms here...
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug29
Zooming back out, here's how it fits into the mid term view... I'll be watching the reaction closely from here
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 45m -- Mar09
Gorgeous 100+ pt rally into the zone and a solid EOD rejection out of the zone
The bull trap may be set, I'm watching closely 👀
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 45m--Mar08
Possible flat for a higher (x). An impulse to ~4300 would set up a wicked bull trap
There are plenty of spots this could sell from along the way so I'll be watching structure as it develops. No interest in longs, just looking for the last short to 4k
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$ES $SPX $SPY 90m - May02
Some wild action the past two days, but I believe it's all one structure (a flat)... and you all know what I say about flats, right?
$ES $SPX $SPY 1H - Apr30
Strong rejection from supply, new supply formed in the process
Bears in full control for the moment, now they just need to avoid a fumble
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2D
• Macro count from June continues to track well
• Waiting for some uncertainty to clear up on the lower timeframes, but the HTF outlook remains the same as long as price holds below 4200
• I still expect to see a test of monthly demand @ 3100
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2D
• Macro outlook (from JUNE14) still tracking beautifully
• Looking for this (A) wave to conclude shortly before the corrective (B) wave to daily supply
• Have a great week! 🤝
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VIDEO UPDATE -- DEC 08
A quick overview of my outlook for the US indices and how I plan to approach the situation
Thanks for watching 🙂
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$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep26
Here we are... All internal upside requirements met
From here, I look to see if sellers can step in and spark the C-wave reversal. I'll be evaluating this on the lower timeframes as it unfolds.
I'm off for a 3 day weekend... catch you all next week!
$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep24
ATHs reached w/a 350pt rally off the ((X))-wave bear trap
Still expecting a bit more upside before a potential reversal. As always, I won't attempt to catch a top. I'll wait for a trend shift
*Adjusted for contract roll. This is the December contract
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$ES $SPX $SPY - Aug01
"Flats=Traps" strikes again...Absolutely relentless sell today, as (C) down unfolds
Minimum target is 5432 barring truncation. Main objective remains 5385.
Hope you guys were able to avoid the bull trap & take advantage today!
$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - July 31
Awesome rally today within what I'm tracking as a flat for the (B) wave...
My view remains that this is a bull trap with the (C) wave still to come
A reversal structure is MANDATORY before I can hunt shorts. Let's see if sellers step in...
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec21
• Wave 2 appears to be in progress
• Looking for a choppy & corrective move into the fib range over the coming weeks
• If/when price arrives to the fib range I will be eagerly looking for swing short opportunities
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec20
Small & choppy bounce today. The impulse could be complete, but it's still too early to rule out a w5 extension. It's a game of patience for now
My focus will be on the lower timeframes for the rest of the week
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🎯 2022 PROJECTIONS 🎯
I've made some minor adjustments to the counts but the overall structures & targets remain the same. Let's see if we can find a low soon and start the final run!
Have a great year everyone ✅
$ES -> $5.5k
$NQ - >$19k
$RTY -> $2600
$ARKK -> $170
💙&🔁
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep14
• Still two valid paths, both are the same in the short term.
• Looking for just a tad higher before another leg down below 3850
• From there the reaction will determine if this is a w3 or wC.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H - Sep13
• Massive rejection from the 0.618 fib
• Looking for a corrective retrace soon. Quite possibly could be a shallow one into 20m supply
• Bears in control until proven otherwise
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🚨 MAJOR UPDATE 🚨
$ES_F -> $4,400
$NQ_F-> $16,000
$AAPL-> $190
$AMZN-> $4,000
I expect $ES_F to make a low near 3770 sometime early next week... then back to bull season 📈🐂
**MUST hold invalidation levels provided**
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This Weekend Prep is free & open to all
Have a great weekend 🙂
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$ES $SPX $SPY 1H - Apr27
Arrival to supply!
From here, I'm on watch for a reversal structure to activate the next leg down to weekly demand (4723)
I am NOT short yet (still trailing long runners on the naz). If/when a reversal structure forms, I will begin hunting shorts.
$ES $SPX $SPY 1H - Apr25
Gorgeous rally from demand, nearly at supply already
I suspect a pause before the (Y) completes
As always, I'm NOT just blindly shorting at supply (in fact, I still have long runners)... Waiting for a reversal structure to activate my hunt for shorts
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1W - Macro Update
Some minor labeling adjustments to better account for proportions, but overall no changes to my macro thesis
Still looking for a sweep of the Feb highs followed by a final leg down towards monthly demand
$ES_F 1D - ALT Scenario
IF bears fail to produce a reversal from 3H supply, here's the alt count I'm looking at...
Perhaps a big running/expanded flat (B), with the move into the lows a sneaky double ZZ
Not my main view at the moment, but something to keep in the back pocket
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$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - Sep11
Bulls have stepped in nicely this week, suggesting the ((Y)) wave is in progress
I expect a corrective pullback in the short term (the depth of which is TBD), but ultimately I am still looking for a sweep of the high within the larger B-wave
$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep07
A sharp move lower to end the week... While I'd love to say the B-wave is in, this downside is still corrective. Not impulsive as C-should be
Therefore, I still suspect one more poke higher to complete B...Below 5300, I'll consider a more direct route
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$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July17
The move through ATHs was corrective, implying an expanded flat (3-3-5) from Thursday's high
However, there is no reliable demand until the daily DZ @ 5500... I suspect this exp flat is only ((W))
I expect further downside after a retrace to supply
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Risk Management | A Thread:
Ahh risk management, the thing that separates trading from gambling.
Don’t like managing risk? Go to Vegas, your odds are better there.
Anyways, risk management is the single most important aspect of trading, here’s why:
1/
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 12H - Feb27
3 valid paths, each with their own set of conditions to confirm/disconfirm
No guessing... Watching LTF price action to narrow it down
Complex & pivotal spot. Stay patient, don't get burned
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$ES $SPX $SPY 1H - Apr30
Strong rejection from supply, new supply formed in the process
Bears in full control for the moment, now they just need to avoid a fumble
$ES $SPX $SPY 1H - Apr27
Arrival to supply!
From here, I'm on watch for a reversal structure to activate the next leg down to weekly demand (4723)
I am NOT short yet (still trailing long runners on the naz). If/when a reversal structure forms, I will begin hunting shorts.
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Seeing some hate towards the 🐐
@WarlusTrades
today…sad
Quick reminder of who NAILED the move down last march AND called bottom
No one else did that, not even close… so y’all can be quiet
If you don’t like someone’s work that’s fine. But don’t trash someone to boost your ego
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Took the direct route on CPI... New highs made, structure appears nearly complete... Now watching for a reversal structure 🙂
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Dec12
•No changes. Still looking for the same outcome
• I suspect the Dec07 low will get swept before the rally, but it's a coin flip with CPI tomorrow
• I'm risk free at the moment. Just gonna see where CPI takes us and go from there
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$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July18
Price tagged supply this morning & sold nearly 100pts...
However, I don't believe that was the full ((X)) wave. Rather, just a part of the flat for ((W))
I expect another test of supply, via CORRECTIVE retrace, before selling to target demand @ 5500
$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July17
The move through ATHs was corrective, implying an expanded flat (3-3-5) from Thursday's high
However, there is no reliable demand until the daily DZ @ 5500... I suspect this exp flat is only ((W))
I expect further downside after a retrace to supply
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I've made today's newsletter open to ALL 🎯
If you find the content valuable, a💙 & RT would be appreciated. There's even a small gift at the end😉
Enjoy & have a good weekend everyone!🙌
Overview: $ES $NQ $RTY $ARKK
Setups: $MRNA $NIO $PDD $MSFT $DKNG
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To all of you who have consistently supported me and my work, thank you. There’s so much negativity out there but you guys keep it real & positive. I’ve been feeling a bit burnt out from twitter lately but you guys make it worth it
I appreciate all of you, truly. Thank you 🙏🎯
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$ES $NQ $RTY $YM 1W - MACRO UPDATE
• All 4 major indices in HTF supply
• I'm not convinced 'the top' is in yet. I am not short yet nor will I attempt to catch 'the top' (I always wait for a reversal)... but my *macro* outlook remains bearish
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1D - Before & After
From March 13 Newsletter to now... 🤫⛈
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MARKET UPDATE 12/05 🎅
Extreme fear precedes the strongest rallies. These moves down appear corrective. I have extended my macro targets accordingly 🎯🐂
$ES 5.5k
$NQ 20k
$YM 38k
$RTY 2.6k
**Note: The w5s could turn into ending diagonals, lowering targets slightly**
💙 & 🔁
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep20
Over 130pts and counting from 3D supply... but plenty of work to do for the bears still
If the count is correct, selling should accelerate from here in w3. Today's high also needs to hold
Let's see if bears can finish the job...
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep4
Price essentially paused @ the 0.618 + 1.272 fib ext since Tuesday. Bulls crept through 4H supply, but right into 3day
No reason to change my outlook at the moment, patiently waiting & watching to see if a reversal forms here...
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H - Mar25
Putting on my bull hat for a couple weeks 🐂
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H - Mar23
Wild day, but nothing really changed. The reaction from this fib zone is key
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Dec15
Annnd now last weeks lows taken out ✅
• Trend has flipped down
• Structure developing impulsively
• Bears in control until proven otherwise
Looking for structure to develop (generally) as shown. Exact pivots will be found on lower timeframes
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Dec13
New highs ✅
Reversal ✅
• Next step for the bears is to take out last week's low and get some impulsive downside action
• FOMC tomorrow, so we still need to stay nimble
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$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - July28
The WXY is still tracking nicely. Though most will label this impulsively, my view remains that this is a corrective move
(B) of ((Y)) isn't complete yet. There are a few ways it can unfold, but ultimately I suspect a bull trap preceding (C) down
$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July24
The ((X)) wave completed at yesterday's high, just shy of supply.
((Y)) now in progress, with room lower still. Volatility is back 😎
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Taking a break from twitter for a bit
I'll be back eventually with some new (and free) educational material
Newsletter/discord will continue as usual
It's been fun, I hope the updates have helped. Trade well, my friends 👋🍻
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - 12/5
• Corrective pullback still suggests one final high as long as 3945 holds
• Wave structure is nearly complete. This is a high-focus week. Stay nimble.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 12/2
• Pullback continued today. Still TBD whether this LTF
b-wave is complete or not
• Either way, general structure unchanged. Looking for one last pop next week then on maximum alert for a reversal
• Have a great weekend everyone 🎯✌️
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$BTC 1D
Not really something I plan on trading, but a good example of a complex corrective structure...
Last week's low marks the end of a 3-3-5 flat... My expectation is that this is just the ((W)) of a combo with more downside to follow the ((X)) retrace.
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Jan16
Everyone flipping bullish right into the 0.618 + 3H supply... interesting 🤔
Still on watch for a reversal structure to spark a sell from here. Bull alts can be considered above 4080
Have a great week!
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 3H -- Jan12
CPI was pretty much a dud, price chopping its way into 3H supply. Bears need the reversal from this zone otherwise the count would be jeopardized
As always...
Area of interest -> Reversal structure -> LTF Entry
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$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - July 31
Awesome rally today within what I'm tracking as a flat for the (B) wave...
My view remains that this is a bull trap with the (C) wave still to come
A reversal structure is MANDATORY before I can hunt shorts. Let's see if sellers step in...
$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - July28
The WXY is still tracking nicely. Though most will label this impulsively, my view remains that this is a corrective move
(B) of ((Y)) isn't complete yet. There are a few ways it can unfold, but ultimately I suspect a bull trap preceding (C) down
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 11/30
• MASSIVE ripper, with the help of Mr Powell of course
• Price approaching key area of interest within 4D SZ
• This move likely has a bit more juice, but I will be on watch for a reversal to develop fairly soon
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - 11/29
• The count remains on track - no changes
• Still expecting one more high as long as 4H demand holds
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H
Outlook for the week:
• Looking for a push into the 4530-90 range before another cool off/potential reversal
• 4305 will need to be taken out before the door is open to the expected broader turn
• Mostly focused on intraday opportunities for the moment
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MARKET UPDATE 8/18 - THREAD🎯
$ES $NQ $RTY $ARKK
*See thread for individual charts & notes*
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$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July21
Price leaked a little further into the EOW, but my view is unaffected... I'm tracking this exp flat as ((W)), with ((X)) on deck
I'm looking for a corrective retrace to supply before the next leg down
My main objective is still Daily Demand @ 5500
$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July18
Price tagged supply this morning & sold nearly 100pts...
However, I don't believe that was the full ((X)) wave. Rather, just a part of the flat for ((W))
I expect another test of supply, via CORRECTIVE retrace, before selling to target demand @ 5500
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec22
I got that one wrong, was not expecting that sell off!
A couple options from here, I lean towards the blue version 🔵
Either way, the BROADER context remains the same
Notes on the chart ✍️
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec21
• Wave 2 appears to be in progress
• Looking for a choppy & corrective move into the fib range over the coming weeks
• If/when price arrives to the fib range I will be eagerly looking for swing short opportunities
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 90m - March 17 🍀
Bulls running out of juice here. Maybe one last push to 4440, but ultimately expecting the selling to resume very soon. As always, watching for a reversal structure to form first.
Have a good night✌️
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H/3H - March16
I got this one wrong
Zooming out a tad... Still in a downtrend. Structure still corrective. Supply still overhead. So, I still lean bearish
Watching two possible reversal zones here. Looking for a reversal structure to form. Have a great night⛈
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Aug19
Below 4485, bears are in control. I would love a retrace into overhead supply before continuing towards 4200
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1W/12H - Aug06
The macro count remains in play. Although, bears still need to complete the impulse & trend shift before it becomes actionable
If sellers fail to find continuation through 4400 from here, my attention will shift towards an alt I've had in storage
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1W - Macro Update
Broader count tracking nicely
I remain bullish in the short/mid term, but this wave is still corrective with plenty of supply overhead
I suspect a bull trap into summer
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1W - Macro Update
Some minor labeling adjustments to better account for proportions, but overall no changes to my macro thesis
Still looking for a sweep of the Feb highs followed by a final leg down towards monthly demand
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Jul9
The complex (B) wave scenario is looking quite probable at the moment
Unless bears pull off a surprise rejection at the .887, we'll likely see a short term squeeze towards overhead supply before the reversal
Either way, I still expect ~ 3575 soon
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 4H - July7
1H supply produced a 40pt sell, but no follow through. Price now at a KEY battle location...
Rejection here keeps the bears in control. A break above 30m supply would bring the alt to 4H supply back to life
Either way, we should get the answer soon⛈
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2H -- (Feb11)
And now, the bear trap. Have a good weekend everyone 🍻
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 90m -- (Feb 10)
Wild day. A lot happened, but nothing really changed. Still expecting a move below 4435 to complete wave B of (X). Traps everywhere, stay nimble!
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 12/1
• Complex corrective structure off the lows is nearly complete
• Watching for a reversal structure from 4140-90ish
• As always, I'll need a reversal & confirmation before taking the short
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 11/30
• MASSIVE ripper, with the help of Mr Powell of course
• Price approaching key area of interest within 4D SZ
• This move likely has a bit more juice, but I will be on watch for a reversal to develop fairly soon
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Twitter is exhausting. Tons of time/effort often met w/a sea of negativity
I try to keep it real. I'm here to share my work & collaborate. I'm not perfect nor do I claim to be
To the friends I've made/those who support me, thank you. I appreciate you. Youre why I'm still here🎯
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Those who learn from the hard times, will be most successful in the long run. The reason most people fail, is because they give up when the times get tough... Don’t be one of them.
So, remember that adversity is normal, pick your head up and let’s get back to it 💪💙
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$ARKK 1D
DO. NOT. SLEEP. ON. GROWTH.
💙 & 🔁
$ARKK 1D
Nice bounce so far, looking impulsive. One of the major contributing factors to the bull thesis.
Still expecting ATHs
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$ES $SPX $SPY 90m - Sep04
This action is still corrective, still implying another high before the larger B-wave completes
In the near term, I'm looking for a sweep of today's low followed by a reversal
Same overall count. Still want a sweep of the high before the larger sell
$ES $SPX $SPY 8H - Sep01
Still tracking the large flat, same expected outcome
In the short term, I expect a quick sweep of ATH within this B-wave
As always, a trend shift will be mandatory before I hunt shorts within this thesis.
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1D - March11
• Supply produced a 200+ pt sell off down towards a key area
•Still room for a bit more downside but I expect a bounce to follow
• Structure of the bounce will show the way, but I suspect a bear trap leading to one more high
• Alt provided
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1D/4 - March03
Today's rally removed the impulsive orange path from contention, meaning the February highs are likely to be tested again. Supply above will be key
Weekend prep will be posted shortly with more details. I will make this one open to the public 🙂
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec20
Small & choppy bounce today. The impulse could be complete, but it's still too early to rule out a w5 extension. It's a game of patience for now
My focus will be on the lower timeframes for the rest of the week
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec19
• Impulse could be completing soon
• Zero interest in trying to catch a bottom, it could certainly extend further. Just a bit more cautious w/shorts in the near term
• Still very bearish overall. A more precise w2 zone will be found once w1 ends
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$ES $SPX $SPY 2H - May04
Alas, finally an adjustment is required
The structure from Tuesday's low is still an expanded flat, but of a larger degree. Same puzzle piece, different arrangement
Watching for a revstruc from the fib zone to re-activate the next leg down
$ES $SPX $SPY 90m - May02
Some wild action the past two days, but I believe it's all one structure (a flat)... and you all know what I say about flats, right?
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1W
I maintain the idea that the corrective structure is incomplete. This is a 3-wave move from the low. I suspect a running/barrier triangle
Waiting for a reversal structure as always... But I'm not eager to chase swing longs here. Prepared for more complexity
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 11/28
With today's action it appears the orange path is the winner. Still expecting one more high, I'll be looking for a reversal structure from 4H demand
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- 11/23
Price continues to grind up towards 4100 as (B) completes. A rejection here could lead to a flat for X (orange alt). Either way, same outcome in the end.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 🦃
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I've made tonight's newsletter free and open to all. Enjoy and have a great weekend🙂
💙&🔁
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$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July24
The ((X)) wave completed at yesterday's high, just shy of supply.
((Y)) now in progress, with room lower still. Volatility is back 😎
$ES $SPX $SPY 4H - July21
Price leaked a little further into the EOW, but my view is unaffected... I'm tracking this exp flat as ((W)), with ((X)) on deck
I'm looking for a corrective retrace to supply before the next leg down
My main objective is still Daily Demand @ 5500
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - July27
1H Demand held & propelled ES towards 4030 as discussed yesterday
Bulls had their fun today, but the count is still unchanged. The bearish route is certainly still in play
I'm on watch for another reversal with an unchanged target of Weekly Demand
$ES_F 1H
I rarely post intraday updates on twitter, but this one feels important
90+ points out of supply, but structure is a bit suspect. Slow/choppy arrival to 1H DZ, big battle here
If bulls find a bounce here, 4030 is in play
Bears need to slice through this zone w/ force
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$AAPL 4D
I was hesitant to share this due to how it may be perceived by the doomers...
But this structure has the making of a flat. Now entering wave-B fib territory
I'm not short yet I have no desire to call 'top' - but IF a reversal structure forms, I will look for an entry
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H -- Jan06
• Choppy/shallow w2 still in progress
• WXY structure
• Looking for a final push into the fib/supply zone
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 8H - Dec22
I got that one wrong, was not expecting that sell off!
A couple options from here, I lean towards the blue version 🔵
Either way, the BROADER context remains the same
Notes on the chart ✍️
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$ES_F 15 Year View
While I am extremely bullish in the next 6 months... the crash will come eventually... (Spring ‘21?)
If we reach 4500, I find it likely that will mark the end of 5 waves up... meaning a brutal 3 down. Could fall as low as 1800...
See, I’m not a permabull 🤣
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Weekend prep is posted!
Also, I just noticed I hit 17k followers this weekend... so as a small thanks I've made today's prep OPEN TO EVERYONE
Thank you all for your kindness and support. Have a great week! 🤝
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$ES_F $SPX $SPY 2H - Mar15
120pt bounce for what is likely the X wave. Looking for a reversal structure to form in this range to send it down to 4k
$ES_F $SPX $SPY 1H - Mar14
Running flat B wave. Too soon to tell if C of W is complete or if it will extend towards ~4065
Either way, still expecting Friday's high to hold & new lows to be found soon. I'm holding some short positions & will continue to short corrective bounces
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