Election Watcher
@CdnElectWatch
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British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)
British Columbia, Canada
Joined August 2012
Assuming judicial recounts don't flip any results, I GOT THE BC ELECTION SEAT COUNT EXACTLY RIGHT!!! More than that, I also almost nailed the regional totals: - Van Island: 1 more NDP, 1 fewer GRN than projected - Metro Van: cancels out Van Island - Rest of BC: on the nose
BC election I'd say: - NDP 45-50, CON ~45 based on all polls (see map). - NDP ~50, CON ~40 based on online polls. - CON just shy of 50, NDP 40-45 based on IVR polls. GRN probably 1-2 (0 or 3 wouldn't be shocking). (I'm not accounting for BCU independents or most riding polls.)
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Good.
NEW - Finance minister @BrendaBaileyBC says B.C. has cancelled the affordability rebate promised in the NDP elxn platform. “It’s no longer the right time to make a new big expenditure.” Says “impossible to predict” US tariff situation for March 3 provincial budget. “We are hoping for the best but planning for the worst.”
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Projection with online polls only (i.e. without Pallas and Mainstreet's ON tracking) 🔵 199 (41.3%) 🔴 96 (28.1%) ⚜️ 32 (7.0%) 🟠 15 (15.2%) 🟢 1 (5.3%) 20 ON seats swing from Liberals to Conservatives when Pallas/MS are excluded. Very little change to the projection elsewhere.
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@6974searchlight Yes, but the topline and regional numbers are based on only 1/3 of the sample. The other 2/3 were the Carney and Freeland hypotheticals, for which no breakdown is provided.
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14 NDP seats, current proj. 49-21L Van E 48-21L Rosemont-LPP 55-33C Edm Strat 41-26C Ham C 42-29L Van Kingsway 43-32C Elmwood-T 40-29C Windsor W 40-30C New West-B-M 35-27L Victoria 42-35L Wpg C 34-30C Esquimalt-S-S 38-34C Lon-Fanshawe 33-30L-27C Churchill-KA 32-31C-30L Burnaby C
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Current projection Leaders Poilievre 56, 🔴 29 (Carleton) Blanchet 53, 🔴 22 (Beloeil—Chambly) May 39,🔵 31 (Saanich—Gulf Islands) Singh 32, 🔵 31, 🔴 30 (Burnaby Central) LIB leadership hopefuls Freeland 45, 🔵 24, 🟠 21 (University—Rosedale) 🔵 43.2, Gould 43.0 (Burlington)
LIB leadership hopefuls, current projection Freeland 44, 🔵 24, 🟠 23 (University—Rosedale) 🔵 43, Gould 42 (Burlington) Fed leaders, current projection Blanchet 55, 🔴 18 Poilievre 56, 🔴 28 May 34, 🔵 31 Singh 33, 🔴 32, 🔵 31
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@DavidColetto @abacusdataca Thanks! Are the sample sizes correct, though? The release says n=3000, but the table says only 855 unweighted decided voters.
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@mileslunn Yeah, Russia was a big reason for the split, which happened while Die Linke's leadership was anti-Putin. Makes you wonder if they might re-merge after the election. But BSW is also more socially conservative.
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@mileslunn I think Die Linke was bitterly divided, but the pro-Russia faction recently narrowly gained the upper hand.
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@mileslunn Not sure... Would be nice if neither they nor BSW make it, but that now seems unlikely.
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Money saved so far from tax holiday: $78.95 (+2.44 tip on tax)
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@Kdoffus @Romaniiitedomum Yes, but this is a pretty small effect during this time period. We've just recovered from low to moderate resource prices - nothing like the 2005-14 period of high resource prices where this was an important consideration.
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Not sure. We have it in Canada too, and it has also gone quieter recently. IMO mostly virtue signallers seeing a chance to get attention. They know that it’s fallen way down on people’s priority list now.
I've heard a number of people surprised by the quiescence of the Palestine movement in the face of Trump's overt support for ethnic cleansing, but Noah explained it right after the election.
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It’s possible that it’s too early to be showcasing the team. But for now, people are thinking Poilievre vs Carney, and the Liberal incompetence of the past few years is back of mind.
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