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@CdnElectWatch
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British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)
British Columbia, Canada
Joined August 2012
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Population increase in Q1 of 2024 was similar to Q1 of 2023, so the situation worsened at a similar pace.
Total shortfall since start of 2011 is now estimated to be ~1.56M units, or about 6.5 years worth of completions at the pace of the past year.
Another quarter of population data, another quarter of worsening housing crunch. Under new federal policy, though, red line should drop to near green line.
Est. cumulative shortfall (13 years): 1.40M ➡️ 1.48M completions
Past year: est. completions ~0.23M, est. needed ~0.69M.
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Projection Update
Andreescu 338
LIB 0
CON 0
NDP 0
BQ 0
GRN 0
Bianca for PM.
#cdnpoli
#elxn43
#shethenorth
#biancaandreescu
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Not a new, and certainly not a Conservative idea. But it doesn't matter: if Poilievre can convince young voters that he's the one that can make it happen, he'll reap the benefits.
Liberals are helping him out with their "don't bully cities" and "don't decrease prices" messaging.
Want more homes for students & seniors?
Require cities approve massive apartments next to all federally-funded transit stations.
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@OhUrbanity
You forgot:
6. Cities and counties that only partly overlap (Atlanta, Fulton Co. and Dekalb Co.)
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@CanadianPolling
NDP did worse than with a WITHDRAWN candidate in 2008 (different boundaries): 10.379% vs 10.384%.
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Canada may or may not be in a recession, but on a per capita basis, purchasing power is dropping fast.
Change in real GDI per capita over 2 years, worst episodes since 1961
2014-16: -2.9%
1980-82: -3.8%
1989-91: -5.5%
2007-09: -5.8%
2022-24: -6% to -7% (forecast)
2018-20: -6.9%
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EKOS numbers from ON. If this is right, LIBs get 95-100 seats in ON, reducing CONs to 15-20. That might be just enough to preserve LIB majority even without gains in QC.
#cdnpoli
#elxn43
3 day Ontario roll as of last nigh
n=453
45.9%LPC
++++
29.1%CPC
---
----
11.6% NDP
9.2% GP
-
2.5% PPC
-
1.7% Other
4.60 MOE
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It's kind of funny/sad that, since the pandemic, the major economic issues of this country get addressed only after
@MikePMoffatt
notices them and talks about them publicly for many months.
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Not even trying to argue that the corporate subsidies are to help a promising nascent industry, respond to temporary challenges, or whatever could be justified in very particular circumstances.
Nope. Just the gov't picking winners, full stop.
Stupid. Disgusting.
Today we announced that we’re investing over $1.7M in Italpasta - a local Brampton business. This will help the Italpasta team increase production to keep up with growing demand!
Investments like these are making a difference in our economy & helping businesses grow.
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Relax, everyone. The size of the federal public service as a % of the population is only as large as...
... the last time federal finances were unsustainable, 30 years ago.
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@LuluFriesdat
1. What do you mean "not available"? It took me 5 seconds to find it on their website:
2. Even if you divide by final voters, this can happen. E.g. Elect 6 delegates, 3 candidates get 2.4, 2.3 and 1.3. Final results would be 3, 2, 1.
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Just looked at some macroeconomic data, and in all likelihood, both real GDP per capita and real GDI per capita in 2024 will fall to around 2014 levels.
It's not just the economy. Life expectancy in Canada in 2022 was down 0.5 years from 2014. I doubt it bounces back by 2024.
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Wow,
@adriandix
really digging himself a hole here.
Insisting that 6 months is some sort of magical threshold and hiding behind the current NACI recommendation.
@jyduclos
heavily hinted today that NACI recommendation is about to change.
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This election could be the 5th time in 6 elections where "Canada's natural governing party" gets less than 1/3 of the vote (and where the Tories get more than 1/3 of the vote).
#cdnpoli
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@jere7my
@predictit101
@fwfreeman103
@NateSilver538
@ABC
Actually, in AZ, votes have to be received (not postmarked) by Election Day. It's the ballot verification process that takes time.
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Currently rooting for
Federal: CPC, I guess 🤢
BC: NDP
AB: NDP
SK: NDP
ON: OLP (to punish Ford on housing)
QC: CAQ/PLQ 😑
NB: NBLA*
NL: PCNL*
*I know nothing about these parties' current positions - just dislike the current premiers.
MB/NS/PE: ?
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After a great year, I see that
@CanadaSoccerEN
has decided that it isn't ready to fully relinquish its "joke" status.
Breaking: Canadian men's national team will not play in a World Cup warmup game scheduled tonight in Vancouver against Panama. The team is on strike over player compensation issues.
We'll have details tonight on
@SportsCentre
.
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It's weird that this isn't bigger news: Poilievre announces on Radio-Canada that he'll cut industrial carbon pricing.
Thus, 🇨🇦 would essentially do nothing to fight climate change. Any emissions reduction will be thanks to technologies spurred by other countries' incentives.
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So this is the point at which I point out that, last time a Canadian team won the cup, the governing party was reduced to 2 seats a few months later…
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If you actually go to the OECD data set, you'll see that the data has been revised.
2021
US: 46,625
Canada: 39,388
2014
Canada: 31,677
US: 30,960
We went from +2% to -16% compared to the US in 7 years. Actually a worse trend than for GDP PPP/capita (from -16% to -23%).
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This should've been the message coming out of LAST year's Cabinet retreat.
Instead, all we got was some mixed messaging regarding foreign students and "they'll come build homes" nonsense regarding foreign workers.
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Canada now has more
#COVID19
cases linked to Iran (10, 7 direct and 3 via contacts) than China (9, 7 direct and 2 via contacts). The other case is linked to Egypt.
Is the gov't going to ask people that have recently been to Iran to self-isolate, just like it did for Hubei?
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If you take the average of the headline numbers of the most recent polls (all published today) by:
Leger
Abacus
Ipsos
Campaign Research
Nanos
Research Co
Mainstreet,
you get a PERFECT (without rounding) tie: 32-32.
But weighting by sample size puts Tories up slightly.
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Liberal MP doesn't know that the US has a wholly separate tax rate on long-term (1 year+) capital gains; top rate is only 20%.
Canada's top capital gains tax rate going from ~27% to ~36% in ON/BC.
For ordinary income, Canada's top bracket starts in the US *middle* 24% bracket.
You may want to tell them that the capital gains inclusion rate in the US is 100%.
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Ugh. You can close borders to foreigners, Canadian citizens & PRs will bring it back. How did Trump's closure & Italy's blocking of flights work out?
Gov't should have:
- mandated traveler self-isolation earlier & more broadly
- ramped up testing earlier
- piled up PPE
Asked why they did nothing when military intelligence warned about the COVID outbreak in Jan, the gov says, “we took action with lots of phone calls & meetings”. But they didn’t do the one thing that mattered: close the border to people from COVID hotspots.
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If we:
- dial our population growth back to the Chrétien/Martin/Harper level of 1.0%/yr,
- get per capita economic growth on par with what Europe had in the past 10 years, and
- build housing MUCH faster,
I am confident 🇨🇦 would have a better social climate than 🇺🇸🇪🇺.
There is a path out of this mess but we aren't currently on it. Canada needs to chart a different trajectory than Europe or America. We can be the next shining city on the hill in an otherwise dark period. Why not?
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Yup. My take on the timing of the collapse in Liberal fortunes:
- many were able to withstand inflation for a while with pandemic savings
- June/July rate increases made some realize rates may not come down before renewal
- rent: new surge, and summer = moving season = new leases
Postmedia still existed and still gave the Liberals bad coverage in 2021, guys
Also this doesn’t explain why the LPC’s polls collapsed in July - the government’s press was dogshit all winter and spring!
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A+: Taiwan
A: New Zealand
A-: Singapore
B+: S. Korea, Hong Kong, Australia
B: Japan
B-: Norway, Finland
C+: Denmark, Ireland
C: Germany, Canada
C-: Israel, Slovakia, Greece
D+: Neth., Portugal
D: Austria, Poland, Switz., France, UK, Spain
D-: Sweden, US, Italy, Czechia
F: Belgium
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Good job, New Brunswick! No new cases in 2 weeks, and all 118 cases have recovered.
NB had the same Spring Break as QC, but barred those that traveled from returning to school/work.
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Good point by
@stephengordon
. Experts & interest groups/activists are often treated the same way in reporting
Worse, some journos go for "experts" from ideological think tanks not for actual expertise, but to get predictable left- & right-wing viewpoints for a "balanced" article
This is obviously true, but I've been thinking about why these attacks get traction in the first place.
My conjecture is too many media stories about experts' interventions in public debates begin and end with "experts say".
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This is going to keep worsening: the economy will flatline in the 2nd half of the year (likely no more than 0.5% cumulative growth from Q2 to Q4), while the Q4 population estimate was 1.7% higher than the Q2 estimate last year.
So 2023 Q4 will almost certainly be below 2017 Q2.
*NEW* Canada's GDP per capita was higher in the 2nd quarter of 2018 than it was in the 2nd quarter of 2023. Five years with no economic growth. Stunning. Absolutely stunning.
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Projection Update
LIB 134.6
CON 133.1
BQ 34.0
NDP 33.4
GRN 1.7
Vote share: Tories lead by 1.4%.
Details:
New from
@leger360
and
@NanosResearch
:
Somewhat poor polls for LIBs. Back to a tie.
#cdnpoli
#elxn43
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Canada has almost 10M doses of Moderna in federal storage, and millions more distributed to provinces and not yet used.
Moderna is the most effective vaccine against Delta.
We should seriously consider giving a dose of Moderna to anyone that has not yet received one.
Simplified table of the 5 reported studies for 2-dose mRNA vaccine effectiveness vs Delta infections. The Mayo & Qatar studies did not account for time from vaccination (Pfizer longer duration). Infection definitions vary. UK data: 8-12 wks btwn doses, others 3 wks
More to come
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“Every time I sit down with the members of my youth council, I am endlessly inspired by their fresh ideas and perspectives.”
If that has led us to where we are today, maybe he should talk to different young people.
Trudeau seeking advice from youth on 'pressing concerns' to inform future policy
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Canada is at 904 new cases today with just AB, BC and Yukon to go. This is looking like our first day with fewer than 1,000 new cases since March 29.
Fingers crossed...
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More of this, please. The only thing that might jolt Canadians out of our complacency might be (non-crazy) Americans realizing how bad things have gotten here.
#cdnpoli
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Alabama (pop. nearly 5M) is the only North American jurisdiction with more than 2M people not to have a
#COVID19
case yet.
I guess they've been praying really hard. So hard that they barely have time for testing.
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I've decided to make my "recent cases" map of Canada/US reflect only the past week's cases to capture changes more quickly.
I've also added patterns to indicate the direction in which things are changing.
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MPs think their biggest problems are communication and a lack of responsiveness to constituents.
I think they're in denial. They've just done a bad job governing the country.
Yes, Libs have done many good things. But they committed one big mistake that takes time to repair:
My latest pice: Frustrated Liberals say Pierre Poilievre is crushing them — and some of them are blaming Justin Trudeau via
@torontostar
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Top bracket rate (fed+prov) and threshold if higher than fed top threshold of $214,368:
NS: 54%
ON: 53.53%, from $220k (not indexed)
BC: 53.5%, from $220k
QC: 53.31%
NB: 53.3%
PE: 51.37%
NL: 51.3%
MB: 50.4%
AB: 48%, from $314,928 (indexation suspended)
SK: 47.5%
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@VoiceOfFranky
See the big difference? Neither do I.
It's actually quite embarrassing that we haven't pulled away despite them shooting themselves in the foot with Brexit.
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Built 15-20 years ago, the Canada Line between Richmond and Vancouver cost just over $100M/km. That's around $150M/km in today's dollars.
Now, a *trail* in Toronto costs $75M/km.
Can someone please explain to me how extending a trail by TWO KILOMETERS costs ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILLION $$$ in Toronto.
We are getting absolutely fleeced.
$75K PER METER?!?!
There’s no way, even with bridges. We’re just budgeting for soft corruption at this point right?
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@VoiceOfFranky
@mileslunn
The costs of small or moderate mistakes by independent central banks trying to hit 2% pale in comparison to the costs of monetary policy designed for electoral gain.
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It is with great interest that I took a look at Bill C-356,
@PierrePoilievre
's plan to increase housing.
I've previously praised the Conservatives for setting an ambitious, yet achievable target.
Unfortunately, C-356 is a dud for reaching that target.
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I had an extremely low opinion of Scheer:
- poor judgment (Rebel interviews while running for CPC leader, Brexit support)
- lies about resume & even basic math ()
- homophobic
- zero statesmanship (debate, reaction to election loss)
Now it's even lower.
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I'm surprised to say this, but Trudeau is actually correct and Maddeaux is wrong.
Inflation has gone down, while prices haven't.
Then again journalists confuse inflation and price all the time, so maybe I shouldn't be so surprised.
Inflation has not “gone down.” It has merely slowed.
Costs are still rising, on top of the soaring price increases of prior years.
Unless wages magically jump, which this gov’t is actively working against, Canadians won’t feel much relief.
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GDP data for 2023 is out. Annual growth rates:
- Real GDP: +1.07%
- Real GDP per capita: -1.85%
- Nominal GDP per capita: -0.28%
- Real GDI per capita: -3.87%
Real GDP per capita (2023 chained $)
'17: 71,967
'18: 72,889
'19: 73,202
'20: 68,765
'21: 72,000
'22: 73,408
'23: 72,047
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This is such a bad take. A big lesson from the pandemic is that we should trust scientific consensus rather than individual experts.
You can always find an anti-vaxx doctor, a climate-change-denying scientist, a protectionist economist, etc.
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@trevortombe
"I dislike (fact/politician) X. Even if X is (true/ethical), if Y goes after X, then Y is on MY side. And if Y lies about X, it's even BETTER because it entertains + emotionally satisfies me, & it means Y depends more on support of ppl like me & is thus less likely to betray us."
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The problem is that the top rate of ~53% in ON, QC and BC just about maximizes tax revenue from the top 1%.
Any further increases will have its direct positive effect on revenue approximately fully offset by decreases in taxable income.
Of all the issues we tested, this attracts the most and repels very few:
Increasing income taxes on the richest 1%. Even 37% of CPC voters say they would definitely vote for a party that promised it.
Full results on our new polling:
#cdnpoli
#thirdrails
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With such a high population growth, it looks like Canada's real GDP/capita this year will remain below 2018 levels.
With TD's GDP growth forecast (+0.9% in 2023, +1% in 2024) and 1.5% annual population growth, Canada's real GDP/capita in 2024 will be only 1% higher than in 2014.
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@acoyne
To me, this rises to the level of gross negligence.
The fact that it's clearly unintentional means that he can stay as MP. But he must resign as Speaker.
Other Heads of State won't be too thrilled about addressing Parliament with him as Speaker. Must go for 🇨🇦's reputation.
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So the Liberals' strategy for re-election is:
- re-announce small housing initiatives
- promise as much or more immigration
- scare people about CPC abortion stance
I really don't want to vote CPC under Poilievre, but LPC is doing its best to make me do that.
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A great illustration of how Trudeau's 1st term and his 3rd term are VERY different.
Nobody particularly liked Morneau, but the gov't pretty much went off the rails after he left - crazy hiring, crazy immigration numbers, all in on corporate subsidies to grow the economy.
Canada's federal hiring under Trudeau vs former Prime Ministers
52% of all jobs created in Canada since the start of the pandemic have been in the public sector
No wonder our productivity has been shrinking
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With 98% of polls reporting, the popular vote is roughly set. Canadian pollsters had a good night! Special shoutout to:
@JeanMarcLeger1
: closest overall + very helpful QC breakdowns through the campaign
@quito_maggi
&
@JosephAngolano
: riding poll kings + very close in ON
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Avg. annual % growth, real GDP (basic prices) per person age 18-64
10 yrs (2012-22)
QC 1.70
BC 1.61
NS 1.26
NB 1.17
PE 1.15
ON 1.11
🇨🇦 1.10
NL 0.93
MB 0.54
SK 0.48
AB 0.10
5 yrs (2017-22)
QC 1.65
BC 1.44
NB 0.95
NS 0.95
🇨🇦 0.74
ON 0.60
PE 0.41
MB 0.03
NL 0.00
SK -0.01
AB -0.12
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@quito_maggi
@VoiceOfFranky
Can't comment to Frank's and
@Qc_125
's models, but mine would give:
LIB 184.0 (184 leading)
CON 122.1 (123)
BQ 22.5 (24)
NDP 5.8 (3, 0 in ON, QC and BC)
GRN 2.6 (3)
PPC 0.7 (1)
IND 0.3 (0)
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As much as the feds have mismanaged immigration, the provinces have totally mismanaged health care.
Why? Even without a surge in immigration, our med schools and residency programs would be grossly inadequate to deal with population aging, which has been foreseeable for decades.
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Study Permits
Est. allocation (2022 🇨🇦 total * Pop share); 2022 Dec to 2023 Nov
NL 7,318; 4,255
PE 2,381; 3,140
NS 14,440; 16,850
NB 11,411; 10,770
QC 121,170; 75,635
ON 213,968; 359,890
MB 19,843; 19,120
SK 16,506; 11,610
AB 64,405; 39,370
BC 75,573; 124,910
Terr. 1,770; 320
The other big change: visas back down to 2022 levels, capped for 2 years, permits to be allocated to provinces based on share of pop.
This plus PGWP rule will probably cut the ON numbers by close to 50%. At a rough guess, that's going to mean a $1.25B cut to college budgets.
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I wonder if the whole "CPC even more pro-immigration than LPC" thing isn't mainly about Poilievre's image rather than policy or courting the immigrant vote.
It's the easiest way to refute lazy parallels between Poilievre's and Trump's brands of populism, for example.
Just finished a new national
@abacusdataca
survey.
For the first time in our tracking, more people have a positive impression of
@PierrePoilievre
than have a negative view.
Stay tuned for new results/analysis later this week in
#cdnpoli
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@VoiceOfFranky
- No existing antibody test is specific enough to give a reliable estimate in a population with low prevalence. If the prevalence is 2% and the false positive rate is 1-2%, you're in trouble.
- Self-selection of those that have experienced symptoms is a huge issue.
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This kind of attitude is why the Liberals are losing.
Indeed, inflation in Canada isn't worse than elsewhere. But the poll doesn't say Canadians think that either.
Rather, we're more concerned about it, which is perfectly normal given our low per capita income growth.
To me, this says more about people being grossly uninformed or even misinformed. Turkey's inflation is 30x higher than Canada's.
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Again: LFS population numbers are just modeled based on recent trends. They're not actual data.
LFS was slow to pick up on the population surge, and it'll also be slow to pick up on the slowdown in population growth.
Immigration to Canada surges in April, worsening outlook for housing affordability
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@mikalskuterud
So I guess the answer is "just don't care" because they don't think human capital matters.
Makes sense. Their insistence at calling ALL int'l students the "best and brightest" suggests they're just paying lip service to the idea of human capital (and pandering, of course).
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I don't care for either the WEF or people deranged about it. But whatever. It's a sideshow.
I also have problems with CBC news coverage, but I think it's a lack of political diversity among its staff rather than anything nefarious.
Demonizing the Canadian Press, though? Really?
Trudeau’s media are desperate to stop his continued downfall. Today, CBC’s news service CP wrote a hit piece on me because I dared criticize the World Economic Forum—a group of multinational CEOs and powerful politicians that push their interests.
I work for our people in this
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Regardless of whether you agree with the sentiment expressed in the question, I think it's pretty clear that when a debate question becomes the biggest campaign issue, whoever asked the question badly failed at the task.
Canadians were so poorly served by
@debates_can
.
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I can't even start to imagine the Canadian government mounting half of this response:
For example, what fraction of returning travelers actually get a follow up? Do we even know where they're supposed to be during the self-isolation period?
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Very nice piece by
@EScrimshaw
"Voters are perfectly able to both find Justin Trudeau personally corrupt or odious or incompetent, and still actively desire his re-elect over Andrew Scheer."
For now, this seems to sum up the main dynamic in a nutshell.
Here it is: LeanTossup’s 2019 Canada Election Preview, from
@EScrimshaw
. How we got here, and where we’re going
I can’t wait to share this campaign with y’all. It’s gonna be a wild ride
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The Liberals are in a real pickle here:
- Too late to get big supply improvements by 2025, and curbing immigration even temporarily would be a huge U-turn.
- So even if the Tory & Liberal housing plans are similar, Poilievre can just say: "Look at the results, do you trust them?"
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Wild guess about US election:
1. Sanders win a plurality, but not a majority of delegates.
2. Dems pick a moderate presidential candidate.
3. A significant fraction of Sanders supporters refuse to vote for said candidate.
4. Trump wins a second term.
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I'm sorry, this is not just "screwing up."
It'd be like a journalist for the Globe and Mail not checking sources at all and publishing an article saying that COVID is a huge gov't conspiracy to take away freedom just because they heard it somewhere.
Clear firing offence.
“Taking responsibility” does not equal resigning, always and everywhere, even in public life. It can mean that, but it does not necessarily or automatically. If everyone had to resign every time they screwed up, very few jobs would be filled — and none at all in the media.
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They're lying, but I disagree that it's the source of their success. Liberals need to look in the mirror.
I'm:
- a professor
- gay
- atheist
- visible minority
- centrist
- millennial
- living in downtown Vancouver
The Liberals have to royally fuck up to lose my support.
@CdnElectWatch
The Cons have convinced everyone that axing the carbon tax will fix everything, inflation, housing, mortgages, all of it. They're lying but lying works.
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This is really important.
As the Liberals have come around on immigration & housing, this is probably my biggest forward-looking beef against them: their attempts to grow the economy probably actually shrink it (by misallocating capital) while wasting tens of billions each year.
Federal government business subsidies are huge. And mostly wasteful | Financial Post
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@338Canada
It is what I predicted:
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I want:
1. Reasonable response in crisis situations like COVID and Afghanistan
2. Gov't intervention relying primarily on a MARKET-BASED approach for (a) climate change, (b) housing & child care
3. Some semblance of fiscal responsibility (esp. stop ⬆️ $ to middle-class seniors)
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@dockevinmcleod
Homeownership is discretionary. Even if this were workable, it'd be terrible policy as it'd force the non-mortgage rate to go much higher.
Directly hurts most needy (e.g. renters with student loans or credit card debt).
Kills business investment, hampering growth for years.
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From what I can see on Wikipedia, LIB+NDP at 38.7% is the lowest in any national public poll since the Ipsos Reid poll ending October 22, 2009, which had:
CON 40% (Harper)
LIB 25% (Ignatieff)
NDP 13% (Layton)
BQ 11% (Duceppe)
GRN 11% (May)
Federal Polling:
CPC: 43% (+9)
LPC: 23% (-10)
NDP: 16% (-2)
BQ: 10% (+2)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-2)
Nanos Research / May 10, 2024 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Check out federal details on
@338Canada
at:
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People thinking Harris is clearly winning the Electoral College now remind me of people thinking Remain was clearly winning.
In both cases, the polls suggest a very close race that is best characterized as a tossup.
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All Canadian athletes are done at the Summer Olympics.
Sport: Gold, Silver, Bronze
Athletics: 2, 1, 3
Swimming: 1, 3, 2
Rowing: 1, 0, 1
Track cycling: 1, 0, 1
Canoe: 0, 1, 1
Judo: 0, 0, 2
Soccer: 1, 0, 0
Weightlifting: 1, 0, 0
Diving: 0, 1, 0
Softball: 0, 0, 1
Total: 7, 6, 11
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Just in case anyone is considering the Greens out of disappointment with the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP.
All of our major political parties are wacko.
@ElizabethMay
Here is Elizabeth May, today, tabling a petition to withdraw Canada from NATO.
So relieved that I am no longer a Green Party member.
#cdnpoli
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There are virtually no "free-marketers" in Canada. Look at what the UCP is doing to renewables in AB, or at what Canada's business lobby mostly pushes for (more subsidies, small-biz tax loopholes and domestic investment from pension funds, rather than less tax and regulation).
The free-marketers on my 🇩🇪 feed drive Tesla and put solar panels on their houses calling this "the future"
The free-marketers on my 🇨🇦 feed repeat over and over that tech advancement is finite and that we are headed in the wrong direction.
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Looks like Dems are doing a bit better than expected. Early returns are pretty good for them in AZ and PA, while NH looks very good.
If they win those 3 races, then they just need one of NV (no results yet) and GA (seems headed to December runoff).
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@Nate_Cohn
As of yesterday, by state/province:
Alabama (pop. nearly 5M) is the only North American jurisdiction with more than 2M people not to have a
#COVID19
case yet.
I guess they've been praying really hard. So hard that they barely have time for testing.
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