Caleb Franzen
@CalebFranzen
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#Bitcoin is making a rare momentum thrust. Specifically, the 120-day Williams%R indicator has made a full oscillation from "oversold" to "overbought". The last two times this happened, price rallied +50% and +100% in a few months. Do whatever you want with this information.
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#Bitcoin daily candles since October 2020. The red & white indicators use linear regression analysis to measure the slope of the regression on different time frames (slow vs. fast). Crossovers are bullish/bearish depending on the direction. Bullish crossover happening now.
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29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in 5+ years. That's absolutely insane. Think about it. 5 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading at $6,500. It fell to $3,100 five months later, falling -51%. Then it ripped back to $13,800 from Dec.’18 to June’19. BTC fell another -50% in the 2nd
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Like this post if you are numb & feel nothing during this $BTC decline.
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This is the moment for #Bitcoin. A daily close below $54k would represent yet another lower low after a series of lower highs. We're below the 21, 55, 100 and 200-day MA. We're below the short-term holder realized price. We're losing bullish structure. These are just facts.
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@TikTokInvestors Translation: “When the banks said we were over-leveraged and they wouldn’t lend to us, we turned to alternative markets to borrow more money at higher interest rates. We don’t know when the music will stop, but we hope it won’t be soon!”.
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I can confirm that several of the #BTC ETFs are currently being populated on Fidelity's brokerage platform. These are the 4 that I was able to pull:.• Ark 21Shares $ARKB.• Vaneck $HODL.• Invesco Galaxy $BTCO.• WisdomTree $BTCW. Still no formal approval, but likely tonight.
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Bitcoin just had its highest daily close ever. Today. Right now. Highest ever.
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#Bitcoin just had its 4th daily close below the regression channel. The last three times it did this:.• May 1st.• July 7th.• August 5th. After each case, price rallied at least +20% in the coming weeks. I'm not predicting that will happen again. I'm just stating facts.
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Terrible news. I lost my #Bitcoin wallet today when I accidentally dropped it just outside of the Santa Barbara harbor. Everything I've worked so hard to accumulate, gone. GG's to whoever finds it.
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@TateTheTalisman This is since the 1960's, which is unfortunately as far back as the data goes. Real personal disposable income divided by median home prices in the United States:
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I'll never understand why #Bitcoin tanks EVERY SINGLE TIME after Saylor announces that $MSTR bought more BTC. Literally every single time.
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The Nasdaq-100 $NDX may potentially flash a bullish signal for only the 5th time since 1987!. When the 18-month Williams%R Oscillator crosses back above the "oversold" threshold (lower-bound), strong returns have ensued. The average 1-year return is +31.8%!
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The S&P 500 is flashing one of my favorite bullish signals, for the first time since November 2020. In fact, this signal has only occurred 4x in the past 10 years!. Here's the signal and why it's important:
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Monetary policy & #Bitcoin analysis w/ price targets:. As disinflation continues and the Federal Reserve maintains the current policy rate of 5.33%, it's a mathematical certainty that the real fed funds rate will become even more positive. This will create a feedback loop for
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Relative to M2 money supply, the S&P 500 is trading at the exact same level as July 2007. This range also coincided with market peaks in:.• Feb.'20.• Q4'21. While the S&P 500 itself has gained +181% in the past 16 years, $SPX/M2 has made no progress. Logical resistance zone?
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I REPEAT: NOBODY SAY FUCKING ANYTHING.
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So wait a minute. $MSTR is down today (while BTC is up) because a firm announced that they are shorting the stock?. Nothing has changed about the uptrend in BTC?. As a matter of fact, the same firm announced that they're buying BTC?. Got it. I'm buying more $MSTR today.
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RFK Jr.'s speech is 10x more important than Powell's.
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Vanguard is going to be so sad to see your $18,000 401k account go away.
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Taxing unrealized capital gains, at any tax rate, is easily one of the worst economic policy proposals in history. I don't care if it's only for the "ultra-rich", because the program will eventually be expanded for the masses. Taxing unrealized gains is the same lunacy as.
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The Elon hate is so delusional. Bro is the modern day version of da Vinci, Edison, Franklin, or any other of the world-changing inventors throughout history. Maybe even Galileo-esque given the coordinated public pressure. Let the man live and keep doing what he does.
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Notice how everyone's gotten acclimated to $69k?. Literally no one gives a fuck. If you don't think that's bullish, I can't help you.
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Today is my 1-year anniversary of leaving the U.S., moving to Europe, and doing the whole solo Digital Nomad lifestyle. It's surreal to get to this point, because this is the lifestyle that I envisioned for myself when I quit my corporate banking job in 2020 to trade & share.
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#Bitcoin is currently down -26.8% from the ATH ~6 months ago. In terms of magnitude, this is normal price action. In terms of duration, this is very different than other bull markets. The timeline of the consolidation is what's made this such a tough environment for sentiment.
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BlackRock doesn't own Bitcoin. BlackRock is the Trustee of the BTC. BlackRock owns $BTC on behalf of their customers/clients. The individual & institutional clients who purchased the ETF own the Bitcoin. Please stop saying BlackRock owns the BTC – you sound like an idiot.
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Another blessed week in my hometown of Santa Barbara, but I’m headed back to the East Coast!. The highlight was watching @nachofigueras & Prince Harry play polo on Sunday, the highest scoring match I’ve ever seen (15-13). Can’t wait to grind grind grind!.
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Nasdaq-100 $NDX bullish signal:. The 52-week Williams%R oscillator became "oversold" 2 weeks ago, the 7th time since 2003. This indicates that price has become "oversold" relative to it's 1-year range. It signaled a multi-year low for the Nasdaq in 4/6 cases. It gets better.
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BOOM!. Just like that, #Bitcoin hit the 123.6% fibonacci target of $79.5k. Next stop is the 161.8% level at $88.7k (linear scale).
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4 years ago, I was paying $2,500/month to rent in San Francisco while being uninspired with my career trajectory in banking. I could whine about it, or make a change & reassess what I wanted out of life. I did the latter. I'm on track to make 3x vs. my corporate income this.
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A bullish #Bitcoin signal just flashed and no one is talking about it. $BTC's short-term holder realized price (STHRP) is now breaking above the prior cycle's all-time highs. In the past two bull markets, the STHRP breakout above the prior ATH's was extremely bullish.
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The correlation between #Bitcoin (candles) & 10-year Treasuries (teal) since mid-2020 is uncanny. Perfect overlap and these quantitative relationships aren't being discussed. For the bull run to continue, will rates need to rise further?
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Fuck it, I'm transferring even more money to buy more $BTC. None of us have enough.
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Virtually zero euphoria or exuberance at $52k. Still seeing plenty of doubt & disbelief. No texts from personal connections about $BTC. 56 days until halving. ETFs are breaking records & seeing an influx of capital. Trend is up.
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1/ #Bitcoin & the 4-week Williams%R oscillator are flashing an exciting signal. When there's a full oscillation from "oversold" to "overbought", it indicates a momentum thrust. There are six occurrences since Jan 2020. After the weekly thrust, the avg. 1-month return is +25%.
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Reminder of what Trump said as a candidate about #Bitcoin:. • He wants to fire Gary Gensler.• He wants BTC mining here in the US.• He won't sell any of the govt's current BTC.• He wants to create a strategic BTC reserve.• He wants to free Ross Ulbricht . Golden bull market.
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I have an epic post that I want to share. But I feel like it's too early in the morning. If you're reading this, like this post so I know how many of you are awake.
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A former premium member of Cubic Analytics just reached out to me, explaining that they're in difficult times after blowing an account & they don't know how to right the ship. I understand that times are tough right now & that many people, in both stocks & crypto, have gotten.
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I've been talking about $DOT for more than a week now. This structure has been so clean and the trend is extremely strong, so I finally took a position during yesterday's selloff on the retest of horizontal support and the 100/200 EMA cloud on 1hr candles. New highs. Easy.
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BRO I JUST WOKE UP AND #BITCOIN IS TRADING AT $102,900 WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK. GM RISK TAKERS.GM BULLS.BM GEY BERAS
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Such a scam shakeout. I'm more bullish now than before.
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There’s a weird romanticism that macro folks have about predicting the next recession. I understand it, but I can’t relate to it. Doom here. Doom there. A recession is coming. The event horizon is approaching. Financial crisis this, auto loans that, delinquencies bleh. Fear,.
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Yes, I'm focused on #Bitcoin's price action. I'm a technician, so that's quite literally what I do. But I'm also focused on what's happening in the stock market, observing the broad-based participation across sectors, industries, and themes. I'm also focused on macro,
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I was inspired by @AurelienOhayon's recent analysis, overlaying $BTC's price with the Stochastic oscillator of the S&P 500. B/c #Bitcoin is so tightly correlated to $IGV since October 2021, I implemented the analysis w/ $IGV's stochastic. Beautiful signal! But it gets better.
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If this is your first cycle, I just want to tell you that these types of days are actually BULLISH and can allow us to continue higher. Wipe the leverage. Clear the speculators. Hit reset on sentiment. Then grind higher & higher & higher. Embrace it (and act accordingly).
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Low volume consolidations within a high volume uptrend aren't bearish, unless we see high volume sell pressure come into the market. So far, no sign of that. I continue to be of the belief that this is a healthy & normal consolidation, that will produce new cycle highs.
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Let me be extremely clear. I don't have a single iota of doubt that this bull market is going to take us much higher. For stocks and #Bitcoin. I'm not even remotely nervous at $91.7k.
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I told you. Once #Bitcoin cleared $90k, it was a straight shot to $93k. Now, it's a straight shot to $100k. All gas, no brakes.
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#Bitcoin is +0.84% away from making new all-time highs and the timeline literally doesn't give a single solitary fuck.
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Respectfully, you've had 7 months to buy #Bitcoin at attractive prices. If you're FOMO'ing in or panic-buying here, you're doing it wrong. Stop. Reassess. Think critically about your mistakes. Why didn't you buy sub-$60k? Or sub-$50k?. Think and be honest with yourself.
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This breakout alone could send #Bitcoin to $87,000. That's roughly +25% upside from the breakout level.
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$FTM - One of the strongest short-term trends in all of mainstream crypto right now. Former resistance becomes support after each breakout. Already working again in the most recent case. The 21 & 55 EMA’s are accelerating higher. Will this continue to ramp higher?
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#Bitcoin is now trading below its:.• 21-day EMA.• 55-day EMA.• 100-day EMA.• 200-day EMA.• Short-term holder realized price.• AVWAP from the YTD open. None of these are signs of bullish dynamics. That doesn't mean that the bull market is over, but it DOES mean that a.
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I said it in November and I'll say it again now:. The #Bitcoin halving is not priced in. If it was, BTC mining stocks would be trading at significantly higher valuations. Investors & Wall Street are still concerned about post-halving sustainability. They wouldn't be worried if.
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Alright fam…. It’s my birthday weekend 📈. After 3 consecutive years of publishing new research every single weekend, I’m taking my first weekend off. Back to the regularly scheduled programming of Cubic Analytics next week!. Love you all 🧡
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Doomers are in shambles. • 254,000 jobs added. • July data revised higher by 55k jobs. • August data revised higher by 17k jobs. • Wages growing at +4.0% YoY. • Unemployment rate falling. I love to see it.
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#Bitcoin is converging w/ the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX. This was an important finding when I shared it in December, suggesting that $BTC was NOT behaving like a risk-asset & was indeed an inflation hedge. The correlation is surging back, suggesting:.Yields ↑.Bitcoin ↑
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How high can Render $RNDR go?. As one of the top AI names, dream big. Then dream even bigger. I see price going to $21.
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Altcoins $TOTAL.3 have broken out. Do whatever you want with this information (and manage risk).
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$20k green candle when (not if) the #Bitcoin ETF’s (plural) get approved. That’s just my 2 Satoshis.
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My $57,000 #Bitcoin target was hit overnight on a pump wick, but we've since consolidated & are starting to regain upside momentum again. We're going to smash through this level & flip it into support. Called this target out at $40k. Congrats to everyone who rode the +41% gain!
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I bought more $MSTR this morning at $1,690 & again just now at $1,740. Net cost basis is now $713/share. This trade depends on #Bitcoin and that's how it's been since day 1. If BTC goes up, MSTR outperforms BTC. If BTC goes down, MSTR underperforms BTC. I'm bullish on $BTC.
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#Bitcoin miners shitting the bed (once again). I will begin to formally roll my entire stock BTC mining companies into $MSTR going forward. Rotation will be completed within 2 weeks, max. You guys can stick to the "cheerleader" analysts or someone who adapts. Your choice.
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Fam, listen. I'm going through a bunch of 1M, 2M, and 3M charts for #Bitcoin and $TOTAL, using a handful of different statistical indicators. I don't think we're bullish enough. There's so much confluence & cyclically bullish signals that are flashing over the past few months.
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The Nasdaq-100 officially flashed a bullish signal for July 2022, with the 18-month Williams%R Oscillator closing above the oversold threshold. This is only the 5th signal since 1987. In prior signals, the bottom was already in. Statistically, this is bullish for risk assets.
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These are all of the Bitcoin pullbacks (not incl. the COVID crash) from the last bull cycle, all of which were followed by higher highs. Down -18.9%, -15.9%, -21.2%, -16.8%, -31.1%, -25.6%, -18.3%, -58.6%, -30.1%, -25.1%. All within the span of 16 months. Buckle up buttercup.
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I have zero clue if this is the official $BARRON memecoin or not, but it's the largest market cap and people are speculating that it might be due to the wallet history. Breakout, retest, rebound. I'm taking a flyer on it with a sum of $'s that I'm comfortable to go to zero.
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I pounded the table on #Bitcoin miners one year ago. I started buying $MSTR hand over fist in January 2024. I publicly denounced miners in favor of MicroStrategy in March. My analysis has paid off, with patience. Want to know what I think now?.
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#Bitcoin is flirting w/ $70k & there's essentially zero enthusiasm on my feed & no one in my personal life asking about crypto or if now is a good time to invest. Bears can't keep it below $65k for more than a few days. $65,000. Sixty five thousand!. That's their best effort.
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I'm supposed to sell the Bitcoin that I bought between $20k and $60k because the price fell from $108k to $95k?. Yeah, no.
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Probably nothing.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 State of Michigan adds #Bitcoin ETFs to its pension fund, discloses $6.6 million purchase.
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Earlier this morning, I told you about the potential "breakout, retest, rebound" setup for #Bitcoin. We're almost there. Who else is ready and plans to buy? Raise your hand 🖐️
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Where did I go wrong with Microstrategy $MSTR?. The better question is, "where did I go wrong with my bullishness on BTC?", but I don't have an answer for that right now. As I said in March, MSTR was the best proxy for BTC & would underperform in an environment where BTC fell.
Too many mid-curvers are trying to analyze Microstrategy $MSTR fundamentals instead of just recognizing that it's a #Bitcoin proxy w/ leverage. 🟠 $BTC.⚫️ Microstrategy relative to BTC (MSTR/BTC). When $BTCUSD goes up, $MSTR/BTC rises. When $BTCUSD goes down, $MSTR/BTC falls.
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Once #Bitcoin gets to $100k, we celebrate for exactly 21 seconds and then we get right back to locking the fuck in.
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Probably VERY FUCKING IMPORTANT.
It's official. the New Nine Bitcoin ETFs have broken all time volume record today with $2.4b, just barely beating Day One but about double their recent daily average. $IBIT went wild accounting for $1.3b of it, breaking its record by about 30%.
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When risk is subsidized, the demand for risk will explode. Imagine if a firm was told: "Invest all of my money and don't worry if you lose it all, because any losses are fully insured so I'll get it back.". What would the firm do? Take ALL the risk. There are two outcomes:. 1.
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#Bitcoin has gained +139% over the past year and 70% of all BTC in circulation hasn't been sold / transferred. Now that's conviction.
The percentage of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in at least a year just breached 70% for the first time. Wow.
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