Craig Garthwaite
@C_Garthwaite
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Strategy Professor and Director of Healthcare at Kellogg. Tweeting about healthcare, economics, strategy, University of Michigan sports, cocktails, and cooking
Chicago, IL
Joined January 2011
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Modern college athletics rests on a set of regressive transfers.
The pandemic is revealing this corrupt bargain by forcing shools to cancel money losing sports, slow new building, and reduce salaries.
We demonstrate these dynamics in a new paper (1/6)
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It’s funny — my understanding was that Republican Senators didn’t read the President’s Twitter account ...
Or was that only from Jan 2016 - Jan 2020?
The president is not doing cable news interviews. Tweets from his account are limited and, when they come, unimaginably conventional. The public comments are largely scripted. Biden has opted for fewer sit down interviews with mainstream outlets and reporters.
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I know people sometimes overuse the term gangster for leaders we don't like ... but it was a pretty quick trip to "that's a nice space station you have there, be a shame if something happens to it."
The head of Russia's space agency: "If [the U.S.] blocks cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled descent out of orbit and a fall on the United States or"—continued in his next tweet—"Europe?"
"The ISS doesn't fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours."
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I really think people have not fully internalized how lucky we were that our first two vaccine candidates were as successful as they were. Or how fast they were developed.
Merck joins Sanofi in the “vaccine development is very hard” part of our story ...
Breaking: Major vaccine player Merck will discontinue development of two Covid-19 shots after they produced comparatively weak results in early-stage trials,
@JaredSHopkins
reports
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Not for nothing, but the best research we have shows that farmers in Nebraska would pay lower premiums if your state expanded Medicaid. Just sayin'
@BenSasse
, we have levers here ...
Have heard from multiple farmers today about panic in their counties about health insurance premium increases for 2018.
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In 2015, Dean
@SallyBlount
gave me this bottle of Champagne when I was awarded tenure as an Associate Professor at
@KelloggSchool
.
I put it aside until I earned a full professorship.
Tonight, we got to open the bottle.
A small ray of good news in pretty dark times.
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Talking to fellow Republicans, there's palpable anger at McCain's vote. Instead, let's pause and realize the opportunity he's gave us (1/4)
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If this is what we’re counting on ... we’re screwed.
The key to safety on college campuses this fall? Student willpower to avoid parties
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Strategy is clear: (1) find arrow in wall, (2) draw circle around it, (3) yell "bullseye"
Since taking office I have been very strict on Commercial Aviation. Good news - it was just reported that there were Zero deaths in 2017, the best and safest year on record!
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Way overdue. Abuse of these regulations is galling. My last flight to SFO filled with pets posing as service dogs.
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CBO score confirms what has bothered many (including most GOP economists): AHCA displays a shocking lack of knowledge about how markets work
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Those who know me know I don’t say this easily:
@AOC
could not be more correct.
I’ll go a step further — this impeachment/removal move should be led by Republicans such as
@MittRomney
and
@RepLizCheney
.
As far as
@SenatorCollins
, consider it time to revisit your lesson plan.
If the 25th amendment is not invoked today, Congress must reconvene immediately for impeachment and removal proceedings.
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2020 is the absolute worst.
RIP Churchill, 2007-2020. You were the best friend someone could have.
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What if … and I’m just spitballing here … there are other differences between people who “always” wears masks and those that don’t with respect to Covid behavior other than masks?
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The next time the
@nytimes
editorial board expresses an opinion on economics I would encourage people to watch this ...
The shocking lack of basic numeracy displayed is scary.
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I've never seen anyone so afraid of their own policies. Proceeding in this manner is morally bankrupt, and unworthy of a great nation (1/3)
I then heard there's a further trick McConnell is considering which could give only 2 or 4 hours TOTAL including debate. Here's how . . .8
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Every time I see the attempted speed here I remain shocked. The ACA was a much more deliberative process and STILL contained many mistakes!
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This is a feature not a bug ... no one is above the law.
.
@RealSheriffJoe
: "If they can go after me, they can go after anyone in this country."
#Hannity
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This may just be me ... but I would resign from a job if I found myself having to parse which of my actions could be reasonably construed as child abuse.
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It’s clear:
@NYGovCuomo
is the worst.
Prioritization is important, but let’s follow Israelis to avoid waste:
“centers have also been opening their doors to all comers at the end of each day in an effort to make sure vaccine units available for immediate use do not go to waste”
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There is a refrain that repealing CSRs is a crafty attempt to force a compromise. I just don't see how you can hold that belief, more here:
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Taking a step back, what is extraordinary about the AHCA is the shocking degree of falsehoods that have been used to pass the bill (1/3)
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This will go down as one of McCain's great services to country and party, saving us from our base's worst instincts and anger (2/4)
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Slippery slope arguments are tough, but how about we draw the line right between those who committed treason and those who didn't?
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If I'm making a list of reasons why health care is expensive in the United States this doesn't make the first page.
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It starts by refusing calls from the party's darkest corners to continue sabotaging the ACA by sowing uncertainty and spreading lies (5/4)
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Then we need to use the ACA as a base to create a better functioning system that uses markets and respects their limitations (6/4)
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Watch the morning news. The thing that is missing is any non-politician defending the AHCA on its merits. That is unique and scary (5/3)
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A lot of comments out there about this as evidence of a bias in favor of “rich” kids and against “poor” kids.
Not sure I’m reading same graph as those who want to make that ideologically motivated point.
The bias here seems to be against the 70-95 percentile not the “poor.”
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Every day that Texas doesn't expand Medicaid, its citizens choose to write a check to the low income residents of California and Massachusetts.
While that is quite generous, funding the government services of the residents of blue states doesn't match my view of most Texans.
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Until the GOP, of which I have long been a member, gets past its shocking lack of regard for expertise, they will be a policy desert (7/3)
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Listen
@AriFleischer
, there are two choices: 1) you are obtuse; 2) you're lying. It's up to you, but you can't honestly have this position.
There are NO Medicaid cuts in GOP reforms. For decades, the press has done a rotten job dealing w budget stories. Here are the numbers:
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The only way the economy returns is some therapeutic (either an anti-viral or a vaccine).
So let's get prepared to "waste" some money -- it's our best path forward.
We know innovation takes a long time.
We should concentrate on the rate limiting steps we can influence (1/5)
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Sorry, the was longer than I expected, guess I was more bothered by the downfall of my party than I thought ... (9/3)
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What if I told you that workers were paying all of the cost?
NEW: Family premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance average $22,221 in 2021, w/workers paying $5,969 toward the cost, our Employer Health Benefits Survey found.
Deductibles are largely unchanged in recent years.
🧵 on our full report:
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Here is what I don't understand about Operation Warp Speed.
The army set up field hospitals in many cities to handle Covid overflow.
Why can't we set up vaccination facilities where we had field hospitals?
Let's have Army nurses/physicians/pharmacists administer doses ...
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It should also be noted that 6 months ago,
@ScottGottliebMD
and others were calling for investment in production (i.e. stockpiling) and manufacturing capacity to no avail.
Let's not repeat this mistake.
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You see, first you set the fire. Then you reveal to everyone that you've bought all the local water rights and you are willing to sell them for a reasonable price ...
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In the end, both parties must move beyond slogans and confront hard realities. True for drug pricing, delivery reform, social insurance(9/9)
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One thing is becoming clear — once Covid is over, people like
@DrEricDing
lose their undeserved platforms and notoriety.
Because of that, they will fight to their last dying breath to stop society from moving forward.
Heck no. With all due respect,
@JoeBiden
— you’re wrong. Pandemic is not over. Almost 3,000 Americans are dying from
#COVID19
every single week.
A weekly 9/11 is a very big deal. Don’t even get me started on
#LongCOVID
—wreaking havoc on millions more.
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Repeat after me ... Iowa is not a harbinger of doom. Iowa is more an example of how AHCA markets would fail than an example of ACA failing.
hey, Iowa: The main reason there's trouble in your indiv mkt is the dominant preACA insurer has locked up 77,000 lives outside the risk pool
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What if you needed just one tiny drop of blood though?
Elizabeth Holmes can't pay her lawyers. Attorneys from the firm Cooley argue in a court filing that you can’t get blood from a stone.
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All politics involves some degree of falsehoods. But statements such as "nobody" will have Medicaid taken away have zero factual basis (2/3)
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If you never put on blackface or a Klan hood, then you'd know you weren't in the picture.
If you're not sure if you're in the picture, you're admitting you've dressed up in one of those outfits but you're just unsure if someone took a picture.
But the picture's not the problem.
The governor has also been calling his former med school classmates to jog their memories. He does NOT think he is the man in Klan hood or blackface and doesn’t want to resign before trying to determine who is in that photo.
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I have no idea whether the vaporized alcohol treatment discussed in this article could be effective.
But if it turns out that Juul ends up the hero of this story by developing the product that treats the corona virus, I know the writers of this season deserve to sweep the Emmys.
I would love to hear what scientific folks think of this idea.
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But now we face a critical choice to show country whether we're a party capable of governing or petulant children, this should be easy (4/4)
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I don't know what to make of watching Trump on CNN saying that CNN doesn't want to broadcast his statements.
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Does Gary Cohn think there is a category above wealthy? If so, this statement checks out, otherwise it's just a lie.
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Seems
@avik
is deliberately misleading here. He knows when CBO says "because of mandate" it means both direct and adverse selection effects.
CBO's Secret: 3/4ths Of Coverage Difference Between Obamacare & BCRA Driven By Individual Mandate
@forbesopinion
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I'll just be waiting over here for
@avik
to reconcile these mistakes with his statements that the bill was debated for months and went through regular order.
Don't worry, I brought some cocktails and I can wait all night.
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The rush to pass before a revised CBO score only plays into this state of affairs. If you don't care about facts, why wait for them (3/3)
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If we'd passed a bad bill, in a disgusting process, we'd have paved the way for permanent minority status. We've been saved from that (3/4)
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This is not something anyone should celebrate. Our country is at its worst when we have only one functioning party (8/3)
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It helps to keep reading to the point when they explain that insurance premiums decrease because the old people can't afford coverage
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The thing about healthcare is the amount of money necessary to make the fund work dwarfs what
@SpeakerRyan
will give
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This fact is going to be really important for rural distribution.
A tease from Moderna: Moderna announces its vaccine remains stable in a standard medical refrigerator (36° to 46°F) for 30 days.
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And then as a society, we need to think about the trade offs we're willing to accept in effort to create and maintain broader coverage (7/4)
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If someone brings up the original patent for insulin when talking about the pricing for the insulin people take today — you know they aren’t interested in seriously debating drug pricing. They’re just a hack.
The inventors of insulin sold the patent for $1. A vial costs $6 to make. Drugmakers sell it for $300 a vial in the United States.
That level of greed is scandalous, it is outrageous, and when we win it is going to end.
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Looking on brighter side ... it's nice that
@SecPriceMD
found a partner that has about the same amount of health policy knowledge as he does
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Even I have to admit that there's a lot of irony seeing pharma execs complain about hotels exploiting monopoly power to raise prices ...
I was looking at JPM hotels. This is an actual quoted price for four nights at the Grand Hyatt.
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The GOP I joined was a party of strong beliefs and a tradition of putting them out there and defending them openly. This is cowardly. (2/3)
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I really can’t tell if this is all schtick or if
@mtgreenee
is actually this stupid?
Cancer isn’t contagious — the comparison is just asinine.
Also, we actually do a lot to fight cancer that does impact people’s freedom (i.e. indoor smoking bans).
1. Every single year more than 600,000 people in the US die from cancer.
The country has never once shut down.
Not a single school has closed.
And every year, over 600,000 people, of all ages and all races will continue to die from cancer.
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Answer: if someone offers you $3-$4 billion for a firm with no revenue -- take it.
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The question to answer is if someone gets the existing booster today, would they be able to get the bivalent booster in the Fall?
(Nevermind the real question is why don’t we have bivalent boosters available already?)
SCOOP: Biden officials developing plan to let all adults get 2nd covid boosters, if they want them.
Surging virus + waning immunity has Fauci, Jha privately arguing for more access to shots.
With
@lauriemcginley2
@bylenasun
.
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These faults stem from health care being massive and complicated and we shouldn't expect to get it perfect the first time through (11/3)
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You can only get to this point by simply not caring about policy expertise and putting a faith in markets ahead of rational analysis (6/3)
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A point I teach on first day of every
@KelloggSchool
healthcare class I teach.
It is not meant to shill for the U.S. -- but showing the simplistic chart of life expectancy vs. healthcare spending as a metric to evaluate the "healthcare system" shows you aren't a serious person.
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Market was worried ... then they saw an ill formed and vague plan. Everyone back go business as normal.
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I know this decision will be wildly celebrated on Twitter.
But I wonder whether we want to send potential firms the message that the larger the health crisis, the less we will respect and protect your IP.
That's a great system if you think this is the last pandemic we'll face.
These extraordinary times and circumstances of call for extraordinary measures.
The US supports the waiver of IP protections on COVID-19 vaccines to help end the pandemic and we’ll actively participate in
@WTO
negotiations to make that happen.
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Its also unclear why they are choosing this as the proverbial hill for the party to die on, because that will be the the end result. (3/3)
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Consider Medicare which we've radically changed since 1965. True progress comes from recognizing and efficiently addressing problems (12/3)
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This mentality is how you get a bill that has such little support even among conservative experts that should be its proponents (4/3)
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Oh ffs
@Avik
, just when I think I've heard the worst hot take, you surprise me. You can agree with this bill -- but making last minute changes late on a Friday night is not how policy should be made. Friday nights are for cocktails, not remaking the entire tax code.
The Declaration of Independence was handwritten. Somehow we managed ok.
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It is disheartening to see this clip trending and is instructive about the state of discourse about pharmaceutical industry.
This whiteboard shtick, and discussion in the hearing around it, demonstrates a fundamental lack of knowledge about modern drug development process (1/4)
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This is the most amazing thing on the internet today ... everyone else should just go home.
Love putting my Peloton bike in the most striking area of my ultra-modern $3 million house
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No other way to put this, it's cowardly. If you think it's a good idea to cut Medicaid -- own it. Don't play three card monte with estimates
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Two final thoughts ... I have a number of qualms about the ACA, but its faults don't result from refusing to carefully consider issues(10/3)
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Let me see if I can help you out the
@nytimes
headline writing team ...
"Society Reaps Hundreds of Billions in Value from Covid Vaccine"
There, that's much better.
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The problem with
@Noahpinion
’s defense of Chicago as the best pizza city is he appears to have fallen for the canard that a meat and cheese casserole can be defined as “pizza.”
Best food cities in America by type:
Chinese: L.A. or South Bay
Mexican: San Antonio
Italian: NYC
Korean: L.A.
Middle Eastern: Detroit
Japanese: L.A.
BBQ: Austin
Pizza: Chicago
Soul food: New Orleans
Deli: NYC
Indian: not sure
Thai: not sure
Vietnamese: not sure
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It takes a unique talent to propose something that is both bad policy and the opposite of your current horrible plan.
I suggest that we add more dollars to Healthcare and make it the best anywhere. ObamaCare is dead - the Republicans will do much better!
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And when we're back in the minority, we will have ceded the moral high ground on any process question -- what could we possibly say? (4/3)
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This is why I love America ...
Even in a disaster no one wants the vegan food.
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With all of the talk about fiscal stimulus, this seems like an avenue being overlooked.
Given the decline in consumption, we have a lot of spare capacity in industry that could be redirected towards more efficient uses and serve a dual purpose of stimulus and preparation.
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This is the part I just can't understand -- this isn't a normal political lie. This is crafted from whole cloth without even a scrap of truth to lean on.
That these lies don't appear to have consequences is the scariest thing ...
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It's important to note that, even if you are a supporter, single payer is a mechanism, not a policy goal.
People are going to be talking a lot about single payer health care, so it’s worth unpacking what it means.
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The world has changed so much since the last Shabbat.
Here’s hoping for better change in the future.
Shabbat Shalom to all who celebrate.
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And this is where I'd turn to my friends across the aisle, many of whom dismiss the meaningful trade offs universal insurance requires (8/4)
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One entire day ... do they mean 24 whole hours ... call the Profile in Courage award nominating committee — there’s no need to meet this year, we already have some winners.
Kim Kardashian West, actor Mark Ruffalo and several other celebrities say they are “freezing” their Facebook and Instagram accounts for one day to protest the spread of hate speech and misinformation on those platforms.
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If you're gonna waste taxpayer money, at least do something cool like watch an eclipse on top of a pile of gold.
Real people worked hard and made sacrifices for the $250,000 of taxpayer money Pence spent on govt jets just to walk out of the Colts game.
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Not for nothing ... but if this is indicative of
@BillCassidy
attention to detail as a physician, hard pass on his services.
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The best part about sending a $1,000 check to every American is it's simplicity.
If you require infrastructure to screen who "needs" money it takes too long.
The other best part, is if you don't personally "need" the money -- you can give it to someone else. Or a food bank.
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I'm literally aghast at this.
What possible rationale could there be to not pay as much as necessary to vaccinate the US population ASAP?
The pure *economic* cost is enough, never mind the human toll.
If people were worried about overpaying, their incompetence is astounding.
Breaking News: Trump administration officials passed when Pfizer offered in the summer to sell the U.S. more coronavirus vaccine doses, people familiar with the matter said. Now Pfizer may not be able to provide more doses to the U.S. until next June.
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Can someone explain how HHS has proprietary elasticities that can't be shared with the public?
Methodologically, what matters for the estimates here are the elasticity estimates, which the report says are “proprietary”
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Ok -- if teachers won't commit to going back into schools even after they're vaccinated, why exactly are we putting teachers higher in vaccine queue?
We need to stop thinking about closing schools as a costless decision that we make if there is the slighest risk of tranmission.
I'd be happy to put teachers higher in the vaccine queue to keep schools open / re-open them sooner.
To suggest that schools still won't be operating normally by August/September is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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I’m amazed we don’t do this anymore.
Throwback to 1992 when there was a dunk contest for pro athletes not in the NBA, featuring Michael Irvin, Deion Sanders, Ken Griffey Jr. and more 🔥
Should they bring this back? 🤔
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As we think about great news from Pfizer today (following news from Merck), I revisit this oped.
Private firms are investing a lot of risk capital to lead us out of pandemic.
They’re capturing a miniscule fraction of the value created.
This should be celebrated not vilified.
In this op-ed, Prof.
@C_Garthwaite
shares that involvement of major pharmaceutical companies in federally funded drugs isn't a bad thing. Learn why in the context of molnupiravir, an antiviral recently developed to combat COVID-19.
#KelloggHealthcare
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This is a big deal -- economics has lacked a top tier outlet for shorter papers that advance knowledge.
@AEAjournals
and Amy Finkelstein are trying to solve this with a new journal. They've created the outlet, we need to supply papers.
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