$VTNR Guy
@CSuiteOperator
Followers
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Following
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Media
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Statuses
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Lover of unloved refineries. Comments are not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. code CSUITE 15% off annual sub
Mid-America
Joined August 2012
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Send us removal request.
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Pinned Tweet
“Progress Software named as co-defendant in MOVEit breach.”
Get use to hearing that over and over and over. 1000x+
$PRGS has only $12M left on cyber insurance as of 6/30.
Moving my 🎯 from $40 to $34 near term, $13 long term.
Example:
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@realEstateTrent
President’s Son.
Is that a profession? Never mind, $10,000/hr is too low anyway.
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Screw it. I’ve capitulated on my holdout.
I’ve read the big banking analysts write ups on $PBR and it’s intentionally negative without any basis.
Just as when GS tries to head fake you out of valuable assets, it’s the same vibe.
Adding $PBR / $PBR.A alongside $EC.
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$VTNR, the next $GME/$AMC?
Bull case: it’s a low risk, cash flowing value stock with multi-bagger opportunity, compounded with long-term options leverage.
In 20+ years of value investing, I’ve never seen an opportunity to make generational wealth like this.
Here’s why…
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On the topic of excess profits…
Last quarterly filing:
AAPL vs XOM
Revenue: $97.3B $87.7B
Net Income: $25.0B $ 5.5B
NI%: 25.7% 6.3%
Next let’s do Microsoft & Chevron… 1/3
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The last 48 hours have proven out the narrative that South American oil co’s are the best value of equity markets.
Both $EC and $PBR are discounted beyond any rational metrics.
Of the 2, I’m long $EC b/c more perceived predictability = less risk premium = higher valuation.
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If Twitter only allowed you to follow one account, this would be my pick.
Easily the most impactful for the average Joe.
Today's workout
chin-ups
seated row
leg press
calf raise
chest press
dips
overhead press
lateral raise
EZ bar curls
barbell shrugs
sprint cycle
all at one set to failure; total time 24 minutes
age 68
Sun, steak, and steel
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$VTNR Operational update Q1
New slogan “Still not bankrupt, bitches”
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$VTNR
A) $1-2/sh Historical Business
- Recycling used motor oil
B) $8-27/sh New Mobile Refinery
- Bought +$2B refinery for $75M
- Earns $1-2M/day
C) $4-23/sh Renewable Diesel RD
- 14k RD by 2H23
- Likely earns $0.5-$1.0M/day
🎯 $33 Now $10
🙏 LIKE/RETWEET
1/2
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419 followers? Need some retweets.
This should be the
#1
trading stock for at least a week straight.
At least 400 of you should be counting 💰today
99.9% of investors still have no clue what Vertex Energy is and that they bought a $5B refinery for $75M.
$VTNR
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You owe me 5 minutes of your life.
Reckon I should turn on tips.
$VTNR
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Reintroduction:
I’m an operator for PE. I’m brought in as a CFO/CEO to maximize value, integrate M&A opportunities, cleanup financials.
Value investor at heart. Enjoy digging into a company’s story, strategy, & valuation from a CFO’s point of view.
Why I love $VTNR …
1/9
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Congratulations $VTNR investors on the 10,500% annualized return the past 2 days.
And for everyone else, gfy.
Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!
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For $VTNR newbies, I am a former PE CFO, who worked my way up through corporate finance over 20 yrs.
I own two major positions:
$VTNR long
$PRGS short
B/c I understand the finances of both.
Simple.
I use X to talk shit to 24yr olds who think a cash out refi is a business plan
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We’ve hit max stupid on $VTNR
$75M for Mobile refinery
$160M for inventory
$200M Capex/RD
~$40M to go to 14k bpd RD
Yes dumbshits, it should trade at $2.00
Forget RD, if you believe a fully operational, US based refinery is worth only $75M, please identify yourselves 👇
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When there is a run on capital, ESG and all the b.s. woke agendas get thrown out the window.
There will be:
1) A flight to safety
2) A flight for yield
How do you feel about 20-45% yields in beaten down oil co’s?
$EC
$PBR(.A)
IF there’s liquidity, options should explode 🚀
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For those interested in $EC
I’d recommend doing a search for “$EC” on the profiles of
@calvinfroedge
and
@G_A_Wilson
The both have a ton of great content.
I love concentrated bets on low risk, high reward opportunities.
$EC is my
#2
position heading into earnings.
$VTNR
#1
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A bunch of lawsuits come out against $VTNR.
Stock drops 10%
Lawsuits dismissed within 24 hrs.
It’s as if somebody wanted to do a quick smash and grab short&/or get longs to sell positions.
Manipulation.
RD FMV is $7-11/share alone. Cracks are heating up.
$20 soon?!?
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Congrats $RIVN Investors:
$9B cash, burn of 1.5B/Q. Good for 18months.
Well deserving of your $18B valuation on $3.7B of Rev. 👏
Poor $VTNR w/ only 3.3B Rev & +$75M of op income. They need $85M to cover 2025 debt. Or they refi. No real cash burn.
Ergo, $0.28B market cap 🙄
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Feel free to DM questions and I’ll do a follow up after earnings guidance.
If you want more coverage of VTNR or other stocks in the future, please like and/or retweet.
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This is your friendly end of week reminder that $VTNR sucks and you shouldn’t own energy assets valued at ~$0.20 on the dollar.
That’s just stupidity.
Why the f would anyone want to own equity in a $2B+ asset at Market Cap of $340M
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Oh, hey, refineries make money.
Shocking.
Somebody poke me when we trade in the $30’s.
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Back in March I was waiting for $STNG to hit <$16 to buy back in.
Never happened. Today it’s $40. I missed the boat.
I feel the same is happening with $VTNR. I keep hearing folks tell me they are going to jump back in at $10.
Well, I don’t think we’ll ever hit $10 again.
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Just think of where $VTNR stock price goes when they deploy that $100M in excess cash toward buybacks.
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Reintroducing myself.
I’m the $VTNR guy.
I’m a former CFO, Contoller, etc. and spent years in M&A building valuation models and conducting diligence.
I want to help others become executives as not everyone is an entrepreneur.
I got distracted by $VTNR
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Tomorrow I will wake up and know that I own part of a multi-billion $ asset.
Ya’ll are excited for $6. I’m excited for $16.
We are not the same.
$VTNR
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Stock prices for $BP & $RIG after the Deepwater Horizon explosion:
+7 days:
BP down 5%
RIG down 8%
+30 days:
BP down 25%
RIG down 37%
+60 days:
BP down 47%
RIG down 41%
$NSC currently down 5.6% since the crash. Guess what’s next.
For reference -40% = 🎯 $150
$0 later?
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Sometimes it’s nice to see $VTNR green while everyone else gets kicked in the teeth for once.
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$VTNR 🐘 in the room:
The static, one time, hedge at 125% of historical 3-1-2 crack is in the past.
Guess what happens when at earnings they announced new forward hedges from when cracks were in the $50-60’s?
🛢💵 🚀 🔃
🎯 $41.00
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@FabiusMercurius
Or just buy $VTNR. Hold.
Go back to bed. Set a stock price alert once it hits $20. Hit “snooze” until it’s at $28.75. RE-evaluate market conditions to whether to sell or hold.
Between then and now, live a normal life.
What am I missing?
Long game wins.
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@greg_price11
“We believe” is a statement of opinion not facts.
You’d think the American gov’t would have access to data to report facts.
Vote ‘em out. All of them.
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When a refiner goes net zero debt AND is in an elevated crack environment…
Get the F outta the way.
$VTNR $DK $PBF
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On $VTNR earnings call:
If I hear any of the following I’m adding:
Capex/Use of Funds:
TCEP
PTU
SAF
De-bottleneck
Buybacks
If I hear all 5…YAHTZEE my target goes +$50, maybe +$60 and I bet the house long term
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Refineries aren’t cheap.
And they take 5+ years to build.
That $5.6B gets you 250k bpd.
$VTNR bought Mobile for $75M.
For those doing the math. New cost is $22,400 per Barrel of throughput capacity.
$VTNR paid $1,000 per barrel.
…and they added RD.
🎯 $18 is conservative
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$VTNR Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW:
1) VTNR had 50% of Mobile production hedged at $14.77 like Q2
2) September had a feedstock supply issue which accelerated Oct maintenance.
- Bad for Q3 but a huge win for ‘unhedged?’ Q4
3) 2-1-1 cracks decreased during period and ramp in Q4
1/x
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$VTNR
That $75M acquisition just looks better and better each day.
*CHEVRON CEO SAYS MAY NEVER BE ANOTHER REFINERY BUILT IN U.S.
and scene
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A hill I’ll die on…
Ben Cowart pulled off one of the greatest small cap acquisitions in recent memory.
It’s like Bill Gates and $MSFT buying DOS for $50k. That was Microsoft’s inflection point.
The Shell Mobile refinery will go down as Vertex Energy’s inflection point.
$VTNR
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK invested $5B in $OXY for, well $5B.
Ben Cowart and $VTNR invested in a $5B refinery owned by Shell for $75M.
Did Warren Buffett overpay for his investment by $4,925,000,000?
Or, did VTNR get the deal of a lifetime?
@VertexEnergyInc
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Let’s revisit:
1) Cracks up significantly ✅
2) $VTNR RD approved and live gr✅
3) $VTNR unexpected extra 2% dilution from convertibles 📈🔻
Current Stock Price:
$VTNR $5.75
$DK $23.60
$PBF $40.65
$VTNR -28% penalty for 2% dilution. Guess where I see SIGNIFICANT opportunity?
VTNR Guy’s best value is refining price targets:
$VTNR 🎯 $36
$DK 🎯 $44
$PBF 🎯 $112
Trading $8, $22, $36 respectively.
Catalysts:
$VTNR RD go live + Expansion; moderate cracks
$DK Market understanding math or stop being anti-Semitic
$PBF ENI JV Cash; moderate cracks
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I have no idea what banks had runs on their deposits today.
But I do know $VTNR added ~$750k to its coffers. And they do it day, after day, after day.
Who’s the shitco now?
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Meditation exercise:
Close your eyes. Pretend $VTNR is trading at 2x the current share price?
Pretend you see all the 💰💰💰in your trading account.
How does that make you feel?
|
|
|
|
|
|
The correct answer is you should feel disappointed that it isn’t 3x
🎯 $41.00
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The devil’s advocate,
#1
negative argument against $VTNR is that it MIGHT get hit by a hurricane.
Yeah, and $VTNR might also win the lottery.
Er, never mind, bad analogy. They kinda did win the lottery buying a $5B refinery for $75M
🎯 $28.75++
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Look, I didn’t discover this stock.
I was 7 months late to the game.
But I have ‘diligenced’ the hell out of it and love it.
I don’t know when it gets rerated to FMV. It slowly built up to $18 and then energy got whacked in June and into July.
See you at $41.00
9/9
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VTNR Guy’s best value is refining price targets:
$VTNR 🎯 $36
$DK 🎯 $44
$PBF 🎯 $112
Trading $8, $22, $36 respectively.
Catalysts:
$VTNR RD go live + Expansion; moderate cracks
$DK Market understanding math or stop being anti-Semitic
$PBF ENI JV Cash; moderate cracks
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$VTNR fans:
A quick reminder for earnings tomorrow. We all know they printed a boat load of 💰
We want to hear the following:
1) Latest changes on hedging
2) What are they going to do with all that cash? See post below.
3) RD Update
4) UMO update (profits?)
5) OPEX/b
On $VTNR earnings call:
If I hear any of the following I’m adding:
Capex/Use of Funds:
TCEP
PTU
SAF
De-bottleneck
Buybacks
If I hear all 5…YAHTZEE my target goes +$50, maybe +$60 and I bet the house long term
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We’re still trading at >40% discount to FMV.
This will go way higher 🚀
🎯 28.75++
$VTNR
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If you are short $VTNR, please be advised that I intend to murder your position in the coming days.
Respectfully,
VTNR Guy
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Congrats $VTNR holders. Only +46% to go to be valued at the industry averages.
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On $VTNR, all it takes is 2 hedge fund managers with a brain and a pair of balls to not be scared of ESG.
With it trading under a $1B market cap, 20% of shares could be off the market in an instant.
This is also why I hope corporate doesn’t wait too long to start a buyback.
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$VTNR has now invested more $ in the acquisition of Mobile Refinery and capex to ADD renewable diesel than the current market cap.
Put your thinking caps on for 2 minutes.
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May I direct your attention to that 2.1x in the far right column.
Pick a comp, any comp, and this is $25, $30, $35, $40…$50. Anyone of those is fine.
$VTNR
Refining valuation comparison featuring new addition Vertex $VTNR as well as the old classics $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO $DK $PBF $CLMT and we love $ADM $DG and of course darling Darling $DAR
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I owe an apology to everyone who invested in $VTNR
I was off in my OpEx estimate. I had used a published historical industry avg in Gulf Coast (upper $5’s), and increased it significantly for inflation. To make the math easy & stay conservative I factored $10/b.
1/6
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Dear
@VertexEnergyInc
, could I get Vertex coffee cup or travel mug?
The day $VTNR trades above $20 is rapidly approaching and I want to enjoy watching those big green candles while sipping my morning coffee.
Happy to pay for it. Lmk
Pint glasses would be ok too 🍻
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$VTNR is going to hit $20’s in an INSTANT and soon March it’s way to 🎯 $28.75++.
It’s going to happen before you can blink and the days of $14-15 will be long gone.
Time to start diligence for future investments.
My 3 fav LT Speculative bets:
1) $TELL
2) $YTEN
3) $GCEH
1/3
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$VTNR clearance sale shopping 🛒 complete.
Thank you to all the sellers out there.
If anyone is looking to unload a newer, low mileage Escalade because of the high gas prices, I’d be happy to buy that at 60% off too. Value investors always love a good deal. 😉
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$VTNR could trade $6-$8 at a moment’s notice.
RD is progressing and Q4 will have favorably hedged gasoline plus a double dip of basic LCFS credits (while they qualify for low CI score, higher credit values).
An RD/SAF builder could buy the entire enterprise at 20% of build cost
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I’m not selling my $VTNR shares until I can have a casual conversation on investments where the other person says “have you ever heard of Vertex Energy? They bought a refinery for nothing…”
Twitter / internet doesn’t count. Has to be a cookout, cocktail party, etc.
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In theory, one could make enough $ on VTNR that a corporate career become a moot point.
We’ll see where it goes, as I still think this is a great value stock, having purchased a refinery for pennies on the dollar.
Until then, give me a follow and I’ll post more trade ideas.
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Millions $$$ being made on $VTNR
Still only at 600 followers, so Vertex may as well be mainstream anonymous.
Currently $13.40
🎯 $28.75
And according to all these beautiful models in my feed “shorts haven’t covered a single share” - Anastasia4839573648 /s
#NOTaSHITCO
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If $VTNR buys back $75M in shares & sells the UMO business for $250M+, it’s $35/share.
If 50% of the UMO proceeds are used towards further buybacks, it’s then a $40 stock. UMO sale mandates payoff of the term.
If the board elects to pay the convertibles in cash settlement: 🚀
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For the record, I’m a PE CFO not an expert trader.
I’m looking at $VTNR as if I were the CFO and CEO. This company has the best valuation setup I’ve ever seen. I did valuations for many years, so it’s not nothing.
There are professional traders that know 100x more than me.
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$VTNR has their annual mtg today so it would be nice (read: smart) if they took the time to formalize a share buyback program.
We’re trading in the $10’s. Unless they get another refinery at $75M I’m doubtful any acquisition would be as a accretive to shareholder return
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$VTNR earnings 2/28:
We already know the results will be good. Vertex already put it on paper.
Be on the lookout for my commentary why $VTNR goes from worst to first. Or say worst to fifth (something like that).
From 1/17/23:
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If you help me 10x my followers, I’ll help you 10x your returns on $VTNR
Deal?
Currently 930
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$VTNR Low Val
15.25% WACC
$25M capex/yr
$20 2-1-1 crack
52% capture
70k bpd
$4 OPEX
= $448k/day or $163.5M/yr
RD 8k bpd
Assume $0.50/g margin (after RINs internal use)
= $168k/day or $61.3M/yr + $80M RINs savings = $141.3M
RD 14k bpd = $187.3M
$350M/yr
$2.3B DCF
$23.80 diluted
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$VTNR proving that modern day traders/investors don’t understand cash flow.
OPEX is ~$4/b or less. Cracks could drop 90% and they’d still cash flow.
Stifel’s report provides an excellent overview of the opportunity. $2B reproduction value / 95M sh = $21.05
Currently $12/sh 🤷🏻♂️
$VTNR
“High quality assets that received timely required maintenance and capital investments prior to the acquisition...last major turnaround conducted Oct 2019”
“Cost to build a new facility >$2.0bn”
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Printing cash 💰
Got diesel?
$VTNR does.
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$PBF 🎯 remains $112.
It isn’t even half way there.
$VTNR is the only public refiner that could 3-4x within the next 12 months.
If $PBF bought $VTNR target immediately moves to $132 if they pick it up under $1B.
Refiners are stacking cash & need to deploy it.
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Since I’ve been accused of being overly biased on $VTNR, I’ll present the bear case:
1) Meteor / Act of God (no insurance)
2) Biden outlaws energy
3) WHO mass extinction event via Covid / Fentanyl / TBD
Otherwise, we’re printing cash for decades.
🎯 $36
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And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why $VTNR owns an asset worth billions that sits on the balance sheet at $75M.
You just can’t replicate a refinery for $75M. It takes years of time and billions of $. Even for 75kbpd
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$VTNR
@OldManJonn
has a great spreadsheet for estimating Mobile.
That said, I’ve got the following for Q4:
Earnings of $57.6M or $0.76/share
EBITDA $78.7M or $1.04/share
But these numbers don’t matter. It’s about the forward narrative.
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My price target went way, way up for $VTNR.
I’ve added to my position accordingly.
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$VTNR discussion has turned to VGO and Q2 earnings.
It doesn’t really matter because they are so undervalued here.
Whether we hit $1.40 or $1.75+, this quarter will be viewed as an anomaly. EPS should get them back to ATH, but it’s the mgmt commentary that matters most
1/9
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$VTNR is printing ~$2M cash per day.
Their management team has been setting the stage for share buybacks per the SEC filing below.
It’s just a matter of when, not if.
This is the change to the debt covenant that $VTNR filed with the SEC last week:
But hey, what do I know.
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If markets were efficient, $VTNR would be up over 100% today.
Also, if markets were efficient, there would be no alpha in trading.
Market inefficiencies are what makes this fun and highly profitable.
Long game wins.
🎯 $33.00
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For those $STNG investors who have killed it over the past 6+ months, please take this moment to dance on the graves of all the naysayers.
Thank you.
Full disclosure: I exited in 2021 but cheer you on like a graduated alum.
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The thesis hasn’t changed.
$VTNR is undervalued 25-50% by any valuation standard, even though it’s doubled recently.
I still view it as an investment opportunity of a lifetime, not a short term trade.
(Not investment advice)
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Newsflash:
Biden’s $8.2B grant for rail improvement projects…these are diesel trains.
150mph from LA to Vegas?
Powered by America’s heavy duty, efficient mobile power source, Diesel.
$VTNR
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I’m up a solid 10 followers since the weekend!!!
Bombshell diligence and because virtually nobody is watching, this is still the sleeper stock of the year.
$VTNR
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Remember the days when every asshole said $VTNR was going to go bankrupt.
That was fun.
Run rate of $625k/d or $0.55/sh
Looking like tomorrow will be $702k/d or $0.64/sh
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As much as I love $VTNR, today will be an $EC shopping day.
Easily the best opportunity of my portfolio. It’s as close to no lose as it gets.
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Current Portfolio:
Could pop any moment:
$VTNR
$MEEC
2024 targets:
$PRGS short
$BAK small. watching to buy dips
$EGY coup in Gabon is ridiculous
I still think there is significant naked short buybacks awaiting $VTNR in coming days.
DD’ing a couple others for 2024
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I have $VTNR conventional at $720k/day run rate or $0.66/sh.
🛒
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$VTNR earnings for Q3 were $0.17/sh diluted or 4.1% of their market cap, despite R&D’ing the Renewable Diesel.
Exclude the growing RD and it was 10% of the market cap. For the quarter. That’s40% annualized for you math majors.
🎯 $18
#AmericasEnergyCompany
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Psst…
$VTNR will provide an update on the term loan at earnings.
I’ll provide an update on how they can write a check and pay it off.
Zero concern here on the balance sheet.
I’m not looking for $5, as we’re knocking on the door of $10+ with what is now known.
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My October estimate looks to be understated by 30% give or take.
No reason for this to be under $14-15/share today after that earnings call.
Go live with RD and that immediately bumps to $20.
$VTNR
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TLDR: $VTNR
Revised 🎯 $37-41/share
As long as cracks stay above $2.00 $VTNR is positioned to operate cash positive for the mobile refinery.
Yes, $2.00, not twenty.
As much as I hate financing w/ warrants, they’ll be zero net debt with the wind behind their backs…
1/x
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If the east coast institutes a clean fuel program, the value of $VTNR goes parabolic.
The more I think about it, I may have to consider becoming a left-wing liberal nut-job 🤔
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There’s going to be a day in the not too distant future when $VTNR hits all time highs.
When that day comes, I want some of the die hards to take the victory lap:
@Browcio11
@GrantHinkle
@verkamp_mike
We’re multiples away, but it’s gonna happen sooner than you think
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Your move Ben. <$10.
How many people have a once in a lifetime buying opportunity (buybacks at ~1x EBITDA) on top of a once in a lifetime buying opportunity (Mobile refinery at 2 cents on the dollar into ATH crack spreads).
@VertexEnergyInc
$VTNR
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Remember, $VTNR could start buying back stock for Q3 and not have to report it to the SEC til ~Nov 15th (Q3 Earnings).
Lots of cash flow will be generated between then and now.
Just sayin’
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If you liked this content, give me a like and maybe retweet it.
Better yet, search “$PRGS” and read my thesis why Progress Software is going to get crushed because of the MOVEit breach.
Comments are always welcome.
$VTNR
7/7
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A hill I’ll die on:
$VTNR
The acquisition of the Mobile refinery for $75M will be one of the greatest opportunities for non-ponzi generational wealth creation by retail investors ever
For the real estate crowd: it’s like buying prime oceanfront condos for 1 month’s rent/door
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Raise your hand if you’re buying thousands of $VTNR Oct $10 Calls.
👀
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Today, $VTNR goes from being a boy to a man.
IYKYK
🎯 $13-15; $22; $29; $36
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