Byron Bader
@ByronMBader
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Creator of Hockey Prospecting | FMR. NHL Draft Consultant | Data Scientist | Work featured on Sportsnet, TSN & The Athletic byron.bader @HockeyProspecting .com
Calgary, AB
Joined August 2011
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Pinned Tweet
Updated NHLer and Star Hit Rates by Draft Position for Skaters (1990 to 2016), split out by F and D.
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The Shane Wright death stare at the Habs table... top 10 moment in draft history.
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Bertuzzi one of the only NHLers to refuse to get vaccinated but also one of the few NHLers to adopt a neck guard thus far. Ok. Alright.
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If Zegras actually said what it looks like he said... that's pretty despicable stuff.
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DeBrincat, who was 12 when this happened and had nothing to do with it, is handling the situation better than anybody actually involved in 2010.
Alex DeBrincat describes the report as disturbing and tough to learn of what happened. He says the team and the organization have to make sure nothing like that happens again.
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Only a few weeks ago I bought a Tkachuk jersey for one boy and a Gaudreau jersey for the other one. Excellent.
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Wonder how Seth Jones is feeling about the Chicago tank plan as he begins his 8 year deal.
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NHL TEAM PROSPECT POOL STRENGTH RANKINGS (JULY 2022 - POST DRAFT)
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Matt Tkachuk. Jesus christ.
Don't sign franchise players to 3 year bridge deals I guess.
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I'm Canadian and there's only one Canadian team left.
We know what that means...
Go Avs!
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NHL TEAM PROSPECT POOL STRENGTH RANKINGS (JULY 2023 - POST DRAFT)
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Being a Devils fan right at this moment has to be a next level experience.
This team is going be a killer for a long time.
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The Minnesota Wild now have a top prospect pool of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, Calen Addison, Danila Yurov and Liam Ohgren. Absolutely nuts.
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The Calgary Flames are going to be very, very bad in 2024-25. It's going to be something.
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Simon Nemec is one of the best D prospects the Hockey Prospecting model has ever seen (model even undervalues him). Massive production in the pro Slovakia league in his D-1 and DY. Like we've never seen from a draft eligible pro Euro player. Hockey Prospecting loves Simon Nemec.
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Cale Makar has the 6th highest point per game pace among dmen to ever play 100 games or more in the NHL. The five dmen ahead of him and five dmen behind him all started their NHL careers 40+ years ago. This guy is absolutely nuts. A modern day Bobby Orr.
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"You sign this team friendly deal with us this time and prove to us you're worth more and we'll pay big next time"
"Ok. Done."
Next contract...
"We can't pay that!"
A classic.
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The City of Toronto has a population of 2.8M people and has generated 9 NHL stars (based on birth place) over the past 40 years.
Ornskoldsvik, SWE has a population of 33k has generated 5 and they include: the Sedins, Naslund, Forsberg and Hedman.
Quite a magical place.
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ZACH BENSON GOES 13TH AND BUFFALO GOT THEMSELVES A GEM!!!
Benson has an incredible look in the model. Young, elite production in his pre-DY and DY
Comparables include: Mitch Marner, Marc Savard, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton and Quinton Byfield
Crazy he dropped this far.
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Rasmus Andersson, within the next few weeks, will become the 15th star from the 2015 draft.
15th!!!
McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Rantanen, Barzal, Aho, Connor, Boeser, Kaprizov, Konecny, Hintz, Werenski, Chabot, Dunn... Andersson
What a class that was.
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If you're going to make the Stanley Cup Finals and actually win the Cup you need a lot of stars. Almost always.
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Ilya Samsonov has played in 94 games and won 53 of them. 1st round goalie from 2015 just hitting his prime. I think it's hilarious and fortunate Toronto got him for nothing on a smoking deal. Could be good.
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Cale Makar: "ok I'll sign for $9M a year but with your 7th round pick in the draft you draft my brother, Taylor. Deal?"
Joe Sakic: "you got a deal! YOU GOT A DEAL!!"
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Florida trading for Tkachuk is kind of like...
I would like that $100 bill (Tkachuk) from you. In exchange, I would like to trade you these $90 dollars (Huberdeau), a $50 dollar bill (Weegar), a $20 (1st round pick) and a $5 dollar bill (Schwindt). Let me know if interested.
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The Jack Eichel trade is going to be big. It will likely include at least a significant roster player, an A-level prospect and a 2021 1st round pick. There are 10 teams that should have no chance of landing Eichel because they lack one or more of these crucial three components:
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We have a star to announce!
Mo Seider is officially there, becoming the 2nd star from the 2019 class.
I was dead wrong about him. Thought Detroit was nuts taking him that early in 2019.
He's been great since his very first NHL game.
There has been 831 dmen drafted with a
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In the past 30 some years there hasn't been a top 10 pick who registered an equivalency of 50+ in their D+1 year that hasn't turned pro after that season.
Logan Cooley is now the first.
Arizona might want to get their ducks in a row... with everything... real quick.
Logan Cooley — drafted third overall last season by ARIZ — returns to University of Minnesota
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Pavel Buchnevich for Sammy Blais and a 2nd. Did Chris Drury accept the very first thing he was offered and call nobody else? This trade is hilariously terrible and is going to look worse and worse over the years.
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Connor Bedard has been great, even extraordinary, in the WJC.
But should we maybe pump the breaks on the excitement for this guy?
Nope.
Hit the gas.
He's going to be regularly putting up 100+ point seasons in the NHL.
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NHL TEAM PROSPECT POOL STRENGTH RANKINGS (JULY 2021 - POST DRAFT)
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Mark Stone is ready for game 1 of the playoffs again. McCrimmon couldn't give a timetable, not even a ballpark, impossible to say... but would you look at that... he's ready. Miracles. Every year. God bless us everyone.
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He's done it, folks! Pavel Buchnevich is now officially a star. And the Rangers officially traded a star for loose change.
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I did not expect Gabe Perreault to last until pick 23rd overall.
One of the highest equivalencies in the draft (we don't often see equivalencies this high).
Rangers making away like bandits here!
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Imagine Connor Bedard is your cousin.
Instead of coming to terms with the fact that he's the generational hockey talent of the family and that's how it is...
You just say hold my beer in this scenario.
Gavin McKenna in January:
• 12 games
• 10 goals
• 19 assists (12 primaries)
• 46 SOG
• 8 multi-point games
• Goals 36-11 in his minutes
#2026NHLDraft
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Michkov having a pretty insane year to add to already insane pre-draft numbers. Never been one that looks like this that hasn't turned into a point-per-game + superstar.
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Vitali Kravtsov is gone and won't even play 100 games in the NHL. At some point, the Rangers have to think "we suck at developing and have to fix it".
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The Vegas Golden Knights have 5 stars (Stone, Pacioretty, Marchessault, Theodore and Pietrangelo) and they didn't draft and develop one of them. Mind boggling what they've been able to create in 4 years of existence.
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The Senators now have stars in Giroux, DeBrincat and Chabot. Stutzle is heading that way. Tkachuk and Batherson on the cusp.
Almost every team from the past 10 years that had 5+ stars on their team has at least made it to a Conference Finals.
Ottawa is trending 📈📈📈
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2015 draft class was just incredible.
Seven superstar-level producers emerged from it in McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov and Chabot.
In any year from 1990 to 2016 there has never been more than 4 superstars to emerge in a single year. Usually it's 2-3.
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Is Quebec City awesome? I've always wanted to go there.
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I'm not sure if Detroit and Yzerman realize they won their Cups in the 90s and 2000s because they were a juggernaut with a ton of stars.
Can't get anywhere with just a bunch of guys.
The whole Red Wings rebuild feels incredibly underwhelming.
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Logan Cooley sure is hot fire to start his NHL career. I wonder if regret is starting to set in for one organization.
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Danila Yurov is having a hell of a year. The Wild might hit again on the Russian lottery.
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It would appear that Lane Hutson has the highest D+1 equivalency among all drafted dmen (1990 to 2022) who didn't play in the NHL directly after being drafted. Holy hell.
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Well Tim Stutzle certainly isn't the 10th best player from his draft class. He appears to be, in fact, the best player from his draft class.
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I think New Jersey should go nuts and trade for Quinn Hughes at the deadline with a package of prospects that doesn't include Luke (obviously). Would be lots of fun.
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Connor Bedard, in the early goings of the WHL season, is generating points in his draft year in line with what we've seen from generational talents over the past 40 years (McDavid, Crosby). He's going to be amazing. Really amazing.
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Jack Hughes. Superstar.
We continue with the trend. Every forward with this profile (40+ pre draft year equivalency, 50+ draft year equivalency) has turned into a superstar in the NHL.
Bedard looks like this.
And there's one more who hasn't played an NHL game yet.
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Dallas' amateur scouting is amazing. No question.
But there is something else very telling about their picks that have hit of recent. Something that teams should key in on if they're going to replicate the 'Dallas Model'
(thread)
Wyatt Johnston - 23rd overall / 2021
Logan Stankoven - 47th / 2021
Mavrik Bourque - 30th / 2020
Thomas Harley - 18th / 2019
Jake Oettinger - 26th / 2017
Jason Robertson - 39th / 2017
Roope Hintz - 49th / 2016
The Dallas Stars amateur scouting is amazing.
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Perry is the best in the business at losing in the Stanley Cup Final. Absolutely elite.
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So NHL 22 is horrible. Really horrible. Least fun I've had playing an NHL game since maybe NHL 05.
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Michkov is pacing to have the highest U20 KHL equivalency ever and is currently beating the 2nd place guys (Yashin, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov) by about ~35%. Wow wow.
🚨 Matvei Michkov is unstoppable. 13 points in 13 games at the age of 18!
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Should be an absolute deadly 1-2 C punch for the Sharks in the near future. Yikes.
Expect
#sjsharks
to announce a three-year entry level deal today for Will Smith, the 2023 No. 4 overall pick, who is one and done at Boston College.
Big day for SJ. Sharks are set down the middle for the next 15 years. Macklin Celebrini's running mate just happens to be a BC
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While Chicago won the draft lottery, Anaheim basically did as well. This guy is a high end 1st overall pick most any draft.
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Sounding like Philly is getting Michkov next season, and not in several seasons like it was first thought.
The plot thickens.
Reinbacher and Simashev best be some game-breaking NHL Ds... within the next few seasons.
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No way did I see this kind of gap in terms of production from Lafreniere and Stutzle when they were drafted.
If anything, I thought it would be the other way around.
Timmy has been unreal since entering the NHL. He's a stud. No question about it.
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Seriously, other NHL teams, pay attention to what the Kings are doing. They are building a prospect system like we've never seen.
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When drafted, Matt Tkachuk was a few equiv. pts away from being in the can't miss star zone
I suggested he should be taken ahead of Puljujarvi
Even 2nd or 3rd ov
I got lots of "put your spreadsheets away and watch the game" reaction for this
Lesson... spreadsheets are life
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Nearly two years removed from the 2020 draft, Tim Stutzle and Jamie Drysdale have emerged as the most likely to turn into stars from the 2020 class.
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Absolutely gutted to see Gaudreau go.
Been following him closely for over 10 yrs. One of the best players the Flames have ever drafted. Amazing talent.
I wish Johnny all the best. Hope he wins a Stanley Cup somewhere
(sign with the Devils and not the Flyers/Islanders *wink)
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So far Lane Hutson looks real nice out there in the National.
The Habs have one here, I think.
He's doing it, Peter. He's doing it.
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Your window is done, Tampa. Your prospect system is a dog's breakfast. What are we even doing here?
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Connor McDavid is the only forward in the model in the past 40 years to effectively count as two stars (1.4+ point per game pace over his career). The last one was drafted in 1984. You know who it is.
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MATVEI MICHKOV GOES 7TH OVERALL TO PHILLY!
Like Bedard, Michkov has that same 'generational' look.
One of the best Russian prospects we've ever seen.
100% of players that look like this turn into superstars.
You don't get these at
#7
ever!
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Saw New Jersey live tonight. They are no joke. Fast and create chances off the rush like nothing. And they don't even have Nemec or L. Hughes on the squad yet. Yikes.
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Colorado Avalanche, a team that won the cup last year and will likely win it again multiple times over the next decade, just got Mikhail Gulyayev with the 31st pick.
Good lord.
Love this pick for the Avs.
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We have a star to announce!
Evan Bouchard becomes the 6th star from the 2018 class (Dahlin, Svechnikov, B. Tkachuk, Q. Hughes and Dobson).
Bouchard has looked the part of a star every year since he was drafted. And 200 games in... here we are.
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Thought Adin Hill might be out of the league as early as next year.
He's probably made himself another $10M to $20M in NHL money now with this playoff appearance.
Cool for him. Get those $$$.
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The Blackhawks organization sold their soul for that 2010 Stanley Cup. Yikes.
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Nemec getting the call. Oh baby, oh baby, oh baby!
Heard Simon Nemec is getting the call up.
He's on the media roster now.
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Draisaitl, Stutzle, Seider, Peterka and Reichel all looking like really substantial NHLers. There's no history to it but... is Germany just exceptional at developing elite hockey talent? Hell of a run the past decade.
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Carolina Hurricanes get G Ruslan Khazheyev (the best model numbers goalie of the 2023 draft).
Somebody stop them! Anybody! Somebody?!
A drafting clinic year in year out.
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THE HOCKEY PROSPECTING 2023 TOP 32
Bedard, Fantilli and Michkov headline a stellar class!
Perhaps the best class we've ever seen!!
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I thought Lafreniere was going to be a star. Had the look anyways.
The Rangers may have a development problem that needs fixing.
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A refresher on the hit rates by draft position for skaters (2005 to 2013). Odds of hitting on an NHLer fall off dramatically as you get into the 20s.
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Jack Hughes, Shane Wright, Nico Hischier down the middle would have been hilarious stuff.
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At $7M: This guy is a real problem. We want nothing to do with him.
At $1M: We've done our due diligence and don't see it being an issue going forward.
Kane's agent Dan Milstein says there's lots of interest from a number of teams for his UFA client. Would be a one-year deal for rest of the season whenever he finds a new NHL home.
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The 4th year of Jack Hughes in the NHL is going to be fun and fantastic.
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NEW POST:
The Hockey Prospecting 2022 Top 32!
Shane Wright, Simon Nemec and Logan Cooley headline a good caliber top end 2022 draft pool.
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Two more official stars have emerged from the 2019 draft - Matt Boldy and Cole Caufield. The U.S. Development Class from that 2019 draft was as good as advertised.
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Love how Evan Bouchard hasn't played a game in over a month. Excellent development of a top prospect. Excellent.
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Adam Fantilli has a very elite and also rare profile.
His DY NCAA freshman production is on a level with Jack Eichel and Paul Kariya.
He would go 1st overall in almost any other draft.
He's going to be tremendous.
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Zachary Benson makes the opening night roster.
Maybe he only gets 9 games.
But if he gets more and legitimately makes the NHL, as a pick outside the top 10, well that's only happened about 10 times in the past 3ish decades.
We love it.
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Jack Eichel is a 24 yo point-per-game superstar C who is signed long term. At the very least, the Sabres should expect to get back a prospect or very young roster player (younger than Eichel) that is or becomes a star in 2 to 3 years. If they don't, they probably got fleeced.
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Quinn Hughes has officially played 200 games and is now officially a superstar-level NHL dman. Hughes currently has the highest point-per-game pace of any dman drafted in the last 30 years to play 200 or more NHL games. Probably shouldn't have gone 7th overall in 2018.
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By request, Simon Nemec and Victor Hedman side by side. There's only been 4 cases where a dman has had such a high equivalency in their DY in a pro Euro league. Hedman, Dahlin, Clarke and Nemec.
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1. Minnesota Wild
The Wild, a team building itself into a contender, has the best prospect system in the NHL. The star potential in their top 5 (Rossi, Boldy, Addison, Yurov and Ohgren) is immense. Nobody else can touch it.
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The universe is screaming at me to become a full time Devils fan.
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Adam Fox has officially played 200 games and is now officially a superstar-level NHL dman. Fox currently has the highest point-per-game pace of any dman drafted in the last 30 years to play 200 or more NHL games, beating out Quinn Hughes, who held the distinction for two days.
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Gabe Perreault is putting together a really great freshman year in the NCAA, after putting together a really great draft year in the NTDP.
Many teams are probably kicking themselves for passing on him... Minnesota might be kicking themselves most.
#NYR
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I can't believe the Devils took Simon Nemec at 2nd overall. Absolutely awesome.
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Go out for a few hours and this Cutter Gauthier - Jamie Drysdale trade goes down out of nowhere.
If Drysdale stays healthy, its probably something that works for both sides.
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Since 2016, the Devils have drafted Bratt, Hischier, Boqvist, Smith, Sharangovich, J. Hughes, Holtz, Mercer and L. Hughes, signed Hamilton and are going to add another gem with the 2022 draft. Eventually this has to turn into winning. It has to!
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Usually there's years between the 'generational' superstar varieties in the model. Not anymore!
1990 to 2022...
Paul Kariya (1993)
Sidney Crosby (2005)
Patrick Kane (2007)
Connor McDavid (2015)
Jack Eichel (2015)
Auston Matthews (2016)
Jack Hughes (2019)
7 in a 33 year span.
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