@BevansAdvocate Ahh but it should be Roy (1951)!

@ZachMottl Right, but that is 10%, with no retaliation, and a progressive tax cut to correct the regressive tariff. It doesn’t say 5% isn’t better. I think we should be cautious about the effects of a 20% tariff.

@ZachMottl I mean in the absence of some kind of model, hard to say right? We can guess 20 percent is a good start, but how would we know?

@ZachMottl Seems like 20 percent would be a bit more than these other countries, maybe we should start with 5 percent and see if it helps, rather than jumping to 20 percent?

@ZachMottl Seems that some of these countries have higher tariffs and a deficit (like India) and others have lower tariffs and a surplus (like Canada). Maybe it is non-linear in tariffs?

@namalhotra @sbmitche Did you miss Little and Meng on this?

@DanGamarnik Try it. It can do difference in differences with a reasonable set of diagnostics without prompting it to.

@KyleLHandley Maybe contrast with neoclassical trade case described in Eaton 1979.

@scottlincicome Shh… don’t ruin it

@MarkManger Start by reclassifying your coast guard as a military expenditure.

Important to remember, things originating from Canada or Mexico will be more expensive, but prices will also rise for substitutes. Don’t just compare Mexican tomatoes to Florida tomatoes.

@Charles_Benoit That use of tariffs should be done via legislation, passed by the House. But Trump doesn’t have a pro-tariff majority, so we get this BS about Canadian cartels.

@ZachMottl I agree the whole tariffs are a sales tax thing was misleading. However US prices can go up and Canada can lose sales, no contradiction. 100 percent pass-through doesn’t mean trade volumes stay the same.

@jessesingal Shut down Trump Hotels in Toronto and Vancouver

@arthur_spirling I was going to say something about murder hotels but maybe we were better off on that front

@farmerrf Whatever you think about these distributional effects, Americans don’t generally benefit from capricious, temporary, ad hoc policymaking

@SHamiltonian The word shared implies it is zero sum, while in fact everyone can lose!

@getjonwithit Except if the experiments require millions of dollars of equipment or specialized training in nuclear safety or access to live Ebola/monkeys/toddlers. Then maybe we can have some people do that and report their results…