At the beginning of October we outlined, for our premium subscribers, a significant buying opportunity in the major tech stocks (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA).
If the Fed decides to hold rates in December, That will be the 5th time in a row we've seen a hold.
We've never seen the Federal Reserve hike rates again after a 5 month hold.
Out of 14 previous times this occurred, 11 of those occurrences have resulted in a recession.
$MDYG / $IWM
S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth vs. The Russell 2000
Russell buyers would have been better off buying $MDYG over the past 3 years.
$MDYG has essentially outperformed $IWM since its inception
Fewer and fewer stocks have been leading this rally higher.
We're starting to see a large divergence between the $SPY price rally and the respective stocks in the index above key the moving averages, 50 day and 200 day.
Friday was the second time in over 60 years that the $SPY gained by 1 % while 2 out of every 3 stocks in the index were losers on the day.
Last time this happened was October 20, 1987...
the day after Black Monday.
Currently stock prices are the only positive contribution to the Leading Economic Index.
LEI has been Bearish for months which has us wondering if this data is broken...
🤔
US job openings are coming down FAST.
There are 1.3 jobs available for every unemployed person which is still a decent number. However, this is the lowest amount of job openings we've seen in a month since March of 2021
Here's an interesting chart...
Global sales growth for equities has fallen at the fastest rate since 2008...
The difference this time is the amount of liquidity in the system from the FED injections..
It has propped markets up.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $APPL $NVDA $MSFT $META
The US has the cheapest electricity in the world and almost every other country imports their energy from somewhere else.
40% of our power comes from natural gas based generation.
This gives the US an extreme advantage for decades to come..
#Energy
$CL $NATGAS
There has been an inverse correlation between High yield CDS spreads and the $RSP (equal weighted $SPY)
If HY CDS makes new lows below its range of past 2 years, it could spell continued upside for stocks in the $RSP
Something to keep an eye on...
via
@Bloomberg
MAGNIFICENT 7 positioning has come down into neutral territory.
Considering where price is, this basket of stocks now may have the fuel they need to cross above their all time high threshold.
Something to keep your eyes on..
$SPY $QQQ $AMZN $AAPL $META $TSLA $GOOGL $MSFT
Chart update.
$XLK holding its "cup and handle" breakout accompanied by large insider buying activity..
Be on the look for a slow melt up now as market participants rebalance and allocate in 2024.
$SPY $QQQ
The latest report reveals a significant drop in new home prices, recording an 18% decrease over the past year, the largest since 1965.
This decline surpasses the 15% reduction observed during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite this, new home prices remain about 24%
Positioning in Oil $CL is extremely one-sided with 83% of participants Net Long as of last week. This suggests a washout out will occur, sweeping the lows of the 67 handle, before a bullish trend can be sustained.
$UBER is now up 40% since it's October low.
This is one our subscribers were able to benefit from since we started highlighting its potential back in May of last year..
Now up over 140% since our research was was published.
$SPY $QQQ $UBER
We'll be getting a fair amount of data next week. Some things to keep your eye on...
Tuesday:
JOLTs Jobs Openings
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday:
ADP Non-farm Employment Data
Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims
Friday:
Consumer Sentiment Data
November
Core PCE inflation has fallen to 3.5% as expected.
However, this is still above the fed's target, and Fed funds rate may still be at these levels the same time next year..
It is very unlikely the Fed "pivots" soon.. The only likely reason for a fed pivot would be purely
As equity values rise and credit spreads narrow, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in the near future diminishes... Keep this in mind, and watch the futures on what's priced in as far as fed rate cuts are concerned
Why "Missing 'X' best days" is a suckers argument
The essence of this chart is to highlight the significance of investing your money early and maintaining that investment to avoid missing out on the key days that contribute significantly to your portfolio's growth.
Delaying
The FED has pretty much guaranteed market liquidity. A BIG reason for the rally we've seen over the past 8 weeks.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $META $GOOG
Corporate insiders are piling into $XLK
We've seen similar flows for $XLP $XLV
These markets can pullback, however, insiders buys like these have historically been profitable in the long-term
The $AAPL chart looks extremely bullish but we've seen some massive trades occur at these highs...
However it doesn't mean that it won't continue its trend, which is basically a slow drift up and to the right.
In almost 70 years there's never been a post - inversion equity market rally that has not been reversed going into a substantial downturn or bear market.
The question is.. When does the yield curve un-invert ?
$SPY $QQQ $ES $IWM $DIA $NQ
Positioning Reports coming soon to our website this will include Futures positioning data $ES $NQ $YM $CL $GC and $ZB among others , as well as $BTC $YEN and a couple more
Our $Gold allocation continues to perform well.
The likelihood spot gold reaches 2400 next year is extremely strong and the chances we never see a sub 1700 spot gold price again in our lifetime continues to rise as more investors turn to the precious metal.
Subscribers to our
If you're trying to get short HTF sometimes you simply have to ask yourself, " what is going cause selling in this market? "
If you can't find a quick and rational answer or form a well thought out thesis then hold yourself back.
Make it simple
Hourly wage growth coming down is very good for the inflation prints.
If wages grow at a rate slower than inflation, the real purchasing power of consumers decreases. In other words, even though they might be earning more in nominal terms, they can afford less due to higher
Chart update.
$XLK holding its "cup and handle" breakout accompanied by large insider buying activity..
Be on the look for a slow melt up now as market participants rebalance and allocate in 2024.
$SPY $QQQ
The performance of $NVDA is nothing short of phenomenal...
Yesterday it recorded its tenth consecutive day of gains, a feat not seen since 2016.
Since hitting its low point on October 27th, the company's market valuation has surged by an astonishing $230 billion.
Moreover,
What does a $BTC ETF mean?
First of all to provide context for our view on crypto in general..
We are BULLISH on quality projects ( $BTC , $ETH , and a few others) , we have been for years.
There are 14
#Bitcoin
ETFs waiting approval by the SEC for the Jan. 8th - 10th
There's a couple reasons why we're seeing an unusual market scenario where new homes are nearing a point where they might sell for less than existing homes.. This hasn't happened since 2005...
-Currently, the prevailing mortgage rate stands at a favorable 3.7%, which is
This rolling correlations indicator has been good at finding extreme points in the market.
We have plenty more room.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $META
The proportion of $SPX stocks trading above significant moving averages saw a marked improvement, influenced by the favorable inflation data from this week.
Breadth continues to improve today, but we expect a significant pullback going into Friday and next week.
TLDR
Using the "X best days" rationale to suggest that staying uninvested means missing out on significant market gains seems somewhat misleading.
This is because:
1) This argument overlooks the impact of the X worst days, which are more influential than the best days.
2)
Why "Missing 'X' best days" is a suckers argument
The essence of this chart is to highlight the significance of investing your money early and maintaining that investment to avoid missing out on the key days that contribute significantly to your portfolio's growth.
Delaying
$QQQ Tech just continues to remain a POWERHOUSE . The Q's are now within a 5% gain from todays close to reach all-time highs..
$NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN $META
The Senate has completed three of its twelve bills, integrating them into a substitute amendment for a House-passed bill. This new version maintains the essence of the original text but presents the information in a more straightforward, less technical manner.
If more emerging market currencies continue to rip higher it will make a stronger case for buying stocks. We've outlined this scenario in our weekly newsletter you can find by making a free account at
$RSP is up 13% in a little over a month, suggesting a lot more than just the MAG 7 have been making gains.
Investors are getting extremely bullish going into year end.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX $NDX
A remarkable shift in sentiment occurred in a matter of weeks. If you are bullish exercise caution when allocating as we are well out of line with historical averages.
Food for thought.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT
There's a reason why we've been so bullish on $GLD and $BTC
Historically, gold is the asset that starts the bull-run as real interest rates fizzle and reach a topping phase.
Bull market rallies tend to reverse or exhibit exhaustion when real rates reach their lows and turn
The House, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, successfully passed a crucial stopgap spending bill with a wide margin of bipartisan support. This move ensures government funding continuity into the upcoming year.
Strongest sector today so far ?
Health Care $XLV
$XLV is up over 2% from the start of Monday and is basing quite nicely off its 2020 AVWAP low.
#Uponly
from here
As month end price action has usually been one-sided we are looking for a potential sweep of the 459.44 high made in July for $SPY
Good PCE data may be the key for this thesis to play out.
A move back to the AVWAP from October would be a healthy pullback and provide a good