Blackshore Research
@BlackshoreR
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Actionable Insights for Equities, Commodities, and Derivatives | Event-based Macro Trade Ideas | Seeking Market Edge | Not Financial Advice
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At the beginning of October we outlined, for our premium subscribers, a significant buying opportunity in the major tech stocks (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA).
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If the Fed decides to hold rates in December, That will be the 5th time in a row we've seen a hold.
We've never seen the Federal Reserve hike rates again after a 5 month hold.
Out of 14 previous times this occurred, 11 of those occurrences have resulted in a recession.
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$SPX call skew is highest it's been in almost 20 years
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$MDYG / $IWM
S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth vs. The Russell 2000
Russell buyers would have been better off buying $MDYG over the past 3 years.
$MDYG has essentially outperformed $IWM since its inception
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Fewer and fewer stocks have been leading this rally higher.
We're starting to see a large divergence between the $SPY price rally and the respective stocks in the index above key the moving averages, 50 day and 200 day.
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The last 14 weeks $SPY has printed 13 green weekly candles
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Earnings growth spiking this season so far
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $META $MSFT
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Friday was the second time in over 60 years that the $SPY gained by 1 % while 2 out of every 3 stocks in the index were losers on the day.
Last time this happened was October 20, 1987...
the day after Black Monday.
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Nobody actually thought they were going to cut in March lol
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To kick off the year most have been buying more tech stocks..
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $META $GOOG
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$GOLD making new all time time highs compared to other currencies across the world
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Currently stock prices are the only positive contribution to the Leading Economic Index.
LEI has been Bearish for months which has us wondering if this data is broken...
🤔
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US job openings are coming down FAST.
There are 1.3 jobs available for every unemployed person which is still a decent number. However, this is the lowest amount of job openings we've seen in a month since March of 2021
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Here's an interesting chart...
Global sales growth for equities has fallen at the fastest rate since 2008...
The difference this time is the amount of liquidity in the system from the FED injections..
It has propped markets up.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $APPL $NVDA $MSFT $META
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Even with higher interest rates the financial conditions index has improved remarkably.
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $META $MSFT
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Most Equity Strategists see the $SPX / $SPY only 1% above these levels to end 2024 ...
Many got it wrong last year..
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The US has the cheapest electricity in the world and almost every other country imports their energy from somewhere else.
40% of our power comes from natural gas based generation.
This gives the US an extreme advantage for decades to come..
#Energy
$CL $NATGAS
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Earnings revisions have started to turn down.
If this continues, expect rebalancing in the near term.
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Very low participation here in $SPY as it reaches its prior peak made 4 months ago...
Low volume
Extreme levels on RSI
Exhaustive price action
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There has been an inverse correlation between High yield CDS spreads and the $RSP (equal weighted $SPY)
If HY CDS makes new lows below its range of past 2 years, it could spell continued upside for stocks in the $RSP
Something to keep an eye on...
via
@Bloomberg
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Even though the Reverse Repo facility has been draining rapidly Net liquidity has been on the rise fueling this massive rally in stocks
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MAGNIFICENT 7 positioning has come down into neutral territory.
Considering where price is, this basket of stocks now may have the fuel they need to cross above their all time high threshold.
Something to keep your eyes on..
$SPY $QQQ $AMZN $AAPL $META $TSLA $GOOGL $MSFT
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Trade Update
#2
:
$XLK like a bottle rocket...
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $META
Chart update.
$XLK holding its "cup and handle" breakout accompanied by large insider buying activity..
Be on the look for a slow melt up now as market participants rebalance and allocate in 2024.
$SPY $QQQ
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The latest report reveals a significant drop in new home prices, recording an 18% decrease over the past year, the largest since 1965.
This decline surpasses the 15% reduction observed during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite this, new home prices remain about 24%
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The overnight Repo Rate touched 5.54% at the end of Nov...
Reminiscent of Sept. 2019, this is unusually high and it has been struggling to "normalize"
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Positioning in Oil $CL is extremely one-sided with 83% of participants Net Long as of last week. This suggests a washout out will occur, sweeping the lows of the 67 handle, before a bullish trend can be sustained.
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Another one to keep your eye on.. Home Builders
$XHB looking like it wants to rip higher. We expect consolidation and then new all time highs soon.
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MAG7 continuing to coil.
Investors continue to chase these stocks.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $APPL $NVDA $AMZN $META $GOOGL $MSFT
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$UBER is now up 40% since it's October low.
This is one our subscribers were able to benefit from since we started highlighting its potential back in May of last year..
Now up over 140% since our research was was published.
$SPY $QQQ $UBER
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$SPY $SPX performance after daily winning streaks suggest we may keep melting up going into Year End
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$SPX gamma exposure has come back down into neutral territory
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We'll be getting a fair amount of data next week. Some things to keep your eye on...
Tuesday:
JOLTs Jobs Openings
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday:
ADP Non-farm Employment Data
Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims
Friday:
Consumer Sentiment Data
November
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$XLK made new all-time highs yesterday and continues it's breakout. This cup and handle pattern is extremely strong, especially on a weekly chart.
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$XLF
Banks back at their July highs.
Financials will perform extremely well in 2024
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Core PCE inflation has fallen to 3.5% as expected.
However, this is still above the fed's target, and Fed funds rate may still be at these levels the same time next year..
It is very unlikely the Fed "pivots" soon.. The only likely reason for a fed pivot would be purely
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A.I. Investment by sector
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $META $GOOG
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The percentage of stocks above their 20 day moving average appears to be stalling out
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The seasonal tendency for Small Caps $IWM to outperform the S&P500 $SPY has been on track so far.
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We're seeing large selling volume between levels of 107 and 105.5 in the $DXY . Expect any moves back into this range to get sold off.
$USD
#forex
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Take a look at Market Breadth...
% of $SPY companies at 52 week highs hits highest on record for for the year so far..
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As equity values rise and credit spreads narrow, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in the near future diminishes... Keep this in mind, and watch the futures on what's priced in as far as fed rate cuts are concerned
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Why "Missing 'X' best days" is a suckers argument
The essence of this chart is to highlight the significance of investing your money early and maintaining that investment to avoid missing out on the key days that contribute significantly to your portfolio's growth.
Delaying
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The FED has pretty much guaranteed market liquidity. A BIG reason for the rally we've seen over the past 8 weeks.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $META $GOOG
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Trade update:
$KBE up 10%
Nice "double bottom" look here on $KBE ..
Banks continuing to look more attractive going into 2024
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The SOFR rate continues to drift along at all time highs.
This paired with FED QT is rapidly removing liquidity from the system.
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Corporate insiders are piling into $XLK
We've seen similar flows for $XLP $XLV
These markets can pullback, however, insiders buys like these have historically been profitable in the long-term
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The $AAPL chart looks extremely bullish but we've seen some massive trades occur at these highs...
However it doesn't mean that it won't continue its trend, which is basically a slow drift up and to the right.
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In almost 70 years there's never been a post - inversion equity market rally that has not been reversed going into a substantial downturn or bear market.
The question is.. When does the yield curve un-invert ?
$SPY $QQQ $ES $IWM $DIA $NQ
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Since $DXY 's top on October 3rd.
$GOLD is up 11.95%
$SILVER is up 18%
$GC $SI
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Positioning Reports coming soon to our website this will include Futures positioning data $ES $NQ $YM $CL $GC and $ZB among others , as well as $BTC $YEN and a couple more
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Equity Put/Call Ratio was a significant contributor to the recent rally among other things like strong data and cyclicality.
$SPY $SPX $QQQ
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Expectations of lower short term rates are at climax to say the least
$SPY $QQQ
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Yesterday was the largest drop in $DXY YTD. The Dollar Index remains under the crucial level of 106
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Our $Gold allocation continues to perform well.
The likelihood spot gold reaches 2400 next year is extremely strong and the chances we never see a sub 1700 spot gold price again in our lifetime continues to rise as more investors turn to the precious metal.
Subscribers to our
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If FED cuts it will be purely political or something has broken.
Many Global Central Banks have already started to loosen their policy
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$UBER has now closed at its highest price since April of 2021.
Plenty of opportunities to allocate and plenty of upside left.
Our subs are happy 🫡
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A lot of hedging activity in recent weeks for the Nasdaq Futures $NQ
With $NDX and $QQQ reaching new all time highs its no surprise at all.
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If you're trying to get short HTF sometimes you simply have to ask yourself, " what is going cause selling in this market? "
If you can't find a quick and rational answer or form a well thought out thesis then hold yourself back.
Make it simple
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We tend to see some lagged effects on Bank Revenues when yields drop
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Hourly wage growth coming down is very good for the inflation prints.
If wages grow at a rate slower than inflation, the real purchasing power of consumers decreases. In other words, even though they might be earning more in nominal terms, they can afford less due to higher
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The amount of money that went into equities in 2021...
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Chart update.
$XLK holding its "cup and handle" breakout accompanied by large insider buying activity..
Be on the look for a slow melt up now as market participants rebalance and allocate in 2024.
$SPY $QQQ
$XLK made new all-time highs yesterday and continues it's breakout. This cup and handle pattern is extremely strong, especially on a weekly chart.
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Bonds ripping this week. Dollar bottom. Stocks stalling... 🤔
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Mean reversion signal in the $SPY coming through on the 5 day AD line.
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The performance of $NVDA is nothing short of phenomenal...
Yesterday it recorded its tenth consecutive day of gains, a feat not seen since 2016.
Since hitting its low point on October 27th, the company's market valuation has surged by an astonishing $230 billion.
Moreover,
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$TLT is up over 12% since Nov. 1st
$ZB 's hit the 119 handle today
Expecting moderate gains in 2024 for bonds
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If I had to guess they run it up in the overnight hours and Glob-ex session ...
$ES $SPX $SPY
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What does a $BTC ETF mean?
First of all to provide context for our view on crypto in general..
We are BULLISH on quality projects ( $BTC , $ETH , and a few others) , we have been for years.
There are 14
#Bitcoin
ETFs waiting approval by the SEC for the Jan. 8th - 10th
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There's a couple reasons why we're seeing an unusual market scenario where new homes are nearing a point where they might sell for less than existing homes.. This hasn't happened since 2005...
-Currently, the prevailing mortgage rate stands at a favorable 3.7%, which is
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This rolling correlations indicator has been good at finding extreme points in the market.
We have plenty more room.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $META
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Buyers getting sold into hard across the board this morning.
$ES $NQ $YM $SPY $QQQ
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Will inflation continue to fall? We think yes...
Here are the reasons 👇
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The proportion of $SPX stocks trading above significant moving averages saw a marked improvement, influenced by the favorable inflation data from this week.
Breadth continues to improve today, but we expect a significant pullback going into Friday and next week.
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TLDR
Using the "X best days" rationale to suggest that staying uninvested means missing out on significant market gains seems somewhat misleading.
This is because:
1) This argument overlooks the impact of the X worst days, which are more influential than the best days.
2)
Why "Missing 'X' best days" is a suckers argument
The essence of this chart is to highlight the significance of investing your money early and maintaining that investment to avoid missing out on the key days that contribute significantly to your portfolio's growth.
Delaying
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$QQQ Tech just continues to remain a POWERHOUSE . The Q's are now within a 5% gain from todays close to reach all-time highs..
$NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN $META
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To understand how this bill in it's entirety might affect markets please be sure to subscribe to It's FREE!
The Senate has completed three of its twelve bills, integrating them into a substitute amendment for a House-passed bill. This new version maintains the essence of the original text but presents the information in a more straightforward, less technical manner.
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We are going into the season of rebalancing..
Small caps have historically outperformed Large caps from this time until mid February..
$IWM $SPY $QQQ
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If more emerging market currencies continue to rip higher it will make a stronger case for buying stocks. We've outlined this scenario in our weekly newsletter you can find by making a free account at
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$RSP is up 13% in a little over a month, suggesting a lot more than just the MAG 7 have been making gains.
Investors are getting extremely bullish going into year end.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX $NDX
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First time ever Foreign Direct Investment into China has fallen into negative territory... 👀
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A remarkable shift in sentiment occurred in a matter of weeks. If you are bullish exercise caution when allocating as we are well out of line with historical averages.
Food for thought.
$SPY $QQQ $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT
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There's a reason why we've been so bullish on $GLD and $BTC
Historically, gold is the asset that starts the bull-run as real interest rates fizzle and reach a topping phase.
Bull market rallies tend to reverse or exhibit exhaustion when real rates reach their lows and turn
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$SPY small cap pure value stocks are seeing the biggest gains since the October low ..
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Stocks lead Earnings which lead the Economy.
Many investors forget this.
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The House, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, successfully passed a crucial stopgap spending bill with a wide margin of bipartisan support. This move ensures government funding continuity into the upcoming year.
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Strongest sector today so far ?
Health Care $XLV
$XLV is up over 2% from the start of Monday and is basing quite nicely off its 2020 AVWAP low.
#Uponly
from here
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As month end price action has usually been one-sided we are looking for a potential sweep of the 459.44 high made in July for $SPY
Good PCE data may be the key for this thesis to play out.
A move back to the AVWAP from October would be a healthy pullback and provide a good
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MAGNIFICANT 7 hovering near all-time highs
$TSLA $NVDA $MSFT $META $AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL
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