Researcher + educator with focus in precision and population health using
#BigData
. Chair
@umichsph
Biostatistics, Prof of Epidemiology,
@UMRogelCancer
. she/her
Major Career and Life Update: After 18 blissful years
@umichsph
, I am moving to
@YaleSPH
as an endowed professor and Senior Associate Dean of Public Health Data Science and Data Equity. This is a bittersweet moment and I want to thank everyone
@umichsph
for shaping my ideas. 🙏🏽
We are thrilled to announce that
@BhramarBiostat
has been appointed
@YaleSPH
's inaugural Senior Associate Dean of Public Health Data Science and Data Equity, a new position that reflects the school’s focus on data science as a critical pillar for the future of public health.
1/3
Received many hate mails today because of standing by the WHO estimates and methodology after the interview with
@sardesairajdeep
. I can handle it.
Few heartbreaking emails from people I do not know, who lost family members, sharing their trauma.I do not know how to handle that.
A journalist asked me today why India is witnessing this severe surge. I always like to think forward and not dwell on mistakes, but here is what came out:
Hubris, complacence, negligence, nonchalance, data denial, slow vaccination and lack of clear and cogent strategy. Others?
Since there has been a narrative floating around that no health expert predicted the second wave in India, I am sharing my tweet from February 27 (directly asking public and policymakers to do their part) with data table and metrics.
Perhaps I am not considered a health expert.
We see increase in cases in many states now.
The effective R is above unity, and our metrics table not looking too promising.
We can do our part:
Double masking
Avoid Large Gatherings
Sanitization
Get vaccine when our turn comes.
Policymakers:
Scale up vaccine roll out. 2/2
The Omicron wave is staring India in the eye. Expectedly so,India is not an exception in the world.
I am scared when I am hearing from my friends "no worries, this one is mild."
Here are five reasons you may not want to get Omi-Covid.
Let us try to prevent COVID 2022. 1/7
I am fully vaccinated since February. I have been wearing my masks outside in presence of others for the last 4 months and will continue to do so till I feel ready to unmask.
Some of my masks from India are comfy, colorful and nicely fitted. I carry a bit of India wherever I go.
After 22 months of vigilance and caution, I tested positive today. The sore throat is as painful as it can get. My booster was 4 months ago and this does not feel mild.
After 2 years of this pandemic, the only medical advice I got was: we are full, go to ER if O2 falls below 94.
On May 15, I told Mr. Karan Thapar that the cases are going to fall sharply but deaths will continue to happen and in the next month we will see roughly another 100,000 deaths reported. I wish models were wrong, but:
# Reported Deaths on May 15: 270,000; on June 15: 380,000.
I had many professors in India & the US who taught directly from their memory, on the chalk board. No slides, no notes. The equations emerging line by line, like strokes of a paintbrush. They rarely made a mistake. In this tech-intense era, I am admiring them on Teacher's Day.
Based on the Omicron data,I am worried about my parents who are in their eighties, who were vaccinated in June and who do not have access to a booster.
I am sure millions of other Indians are worried about their loved ones.
Please consider booster for high risk groups in India.
My mother turned 80 today. I sent her 80 roses, each color representing the qualities in her that I admire the most: integrity, kindness, curiosity and resilience. She led our family through the pandemic. All of us were falling apart at some point, she stood by us. Thank you Maa!
Long line for Diwali sweets at the local Indian grocery store.
Finally, as I am checking out, the cashier looks at my name when I am signing the receipt and says "Mukherjee, I read your newspaper article on the pandemic in India."
As a biostatistician, this felt surreal.
In my bank in Kolkata, my account manager asks "Professor Mukherjee, when is the third wave coming?".
I give them a longwinded response capturing all the uncertainties. Not fun.
At the same time, it feels good that statisticians are recognized for their work by other citizens.
One day I want to write an essay about the role of Indian grocery stores in the life of immigrant Indians. Your quality of life (and academic work) depends so much on the spices, the fishes and the sweets they carry. So when I was at Purdue, I paid homage to my old hangout.
I arrived in India before the third wave did. I have to admit that I followed our own model predictions that said July will be a safe month here. Never in my life had I used my own work to guide personal travel decisions until the last 16 months. I am so grateful to be in India.
The discussion around infection induced herd immunity in India is making me so nervous. We have made this mistake once, we cannot make this mistake again.
We need vaccination-induced herd immunity. Follow the recommended dose schedule supported by data & science: vaccinate!
Another downside of not capturing all COVID deaths in India is that people do not appreciate the enormity of the crisis and the threat this virus poses, leading to nonchalance. The grieving families and the long haulers will tell you the real aftermath, not the reported numbers.
This is a thread about projections in India and my recent conversation with
@karanthapar_in
published today at the
@thewire_in
.
Please recognize that the reality on the ground is changing everyday. Models are wrinkled with assumptions and we have been wrong in the past.
1/n
I work with data and I had to state what I believe to the NYT, simply what the models indicate. The magnitude of underreporting varies across states and time, but the reality on the ground is worse.
As Covid-19 Devastates India, Deaths Go Undercounted
The COVID vaccine curve is falling at a much faster rate than the infection or fatality curve in India. When I first saw this, I could not believe the data.
Vaccines hold the key to controlling this pandemic. I hope we can manufacture, procure and deliver more vaccines soon.
Diwali, the festival of lights is this weekend.
I just gave myself the perfect Diwali gift.
A ticket to India: Dec 19 to Jan 15.
Need to see my Mom. The light of my life.
She sent me this photo from our farmhouse in Birbhum yesterday saying she is waiting. ❤️
#motherlove
I just calculated that the total cost of my excellent education from K-12 and BSc in India was roughly 15000INR, that is, less than 200 dollars. This was from 1978-1994.
Affordable education was the only way I could be here today.
I dream of free universal education for all.
India celebrating 1B jabs.
Today I paused and reflected in remembrance. The lives that we lost to the Delta surge in April & May that could have been saved, had we been more cautious till vaccines became abundant.
We must follow science and proceed with humility in the future.
I am speechless. I talked to the legendary inspirational nobel laureate Dr. Kariko who is in the class of NAM 2022.
She tells me: you know how hard it is for immigrant women in academia. Yes I do, Dr. Kariko, thank you for standing up for all of them.
#NAM2022
. Goosebumps.
I was talking to a physician in India today. They are experiencing a high volume of patients with serious post-acute sequelae of COVID. We need to characterize this cohort in India. Just think of the toll on healthcare workers, patients and families: for them it is not over.
Yet another advisory board meeting.
Addressing everyone by Dr. X, Dr. Y but me as good old Bhramar.
I love my name, my father picked it from a Bengali novel by Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay.
However, I worked very hard to get my PhD and need to be treated equally as other Drs.
I am so humbled, happy and honored (H-cubed) to receive this honor. This award is a tribute to a pioneering statistician Janet Norwood, and her relentless pursuit of equality and justice through her scholarship and humanitarian work. This means so much to me. Thanks
@uabSOPH
!
Congratulations to Bhramar Mukherjee (
@BhramarBioStat
), professor and chair of Biostatistics, who is the recipient of the 20th annual Janet L. Norwood Award!
The
@uabSOPH
award recognizes outstanding achievement by a woman in statistical sciences.
Read:
Predicting the third wave as if it is an inevitable destiny is a distraction from where we need to focus right now.
We have a lot more work to do with India's second wave. Even after the infections go down an enormous task lies ahead for the country to reopen, heal and recover.
I have tried to refrain from talking about the timing and magnitude of the "3rd wave" in India as if it is a destiny.
Prediction is guided by data and not fatalistic beliefs. As soon as we see an uptick or a data clue, we report, that is our job. The future depends on actions.
I just stumbled upon my first media interview in the Bengali youth magazine "Anandamela." Thirty years ago!
I said I wanted to be an engineer, simply because the field needed more women. I also said I wanted to travel to anonymous destinations.
To equality and wanderlust!
We need to learn from our past mistakes.
Schools are closed, funerals and weddings have limited gathering. Tremendous disruption to the public life due to Omicron. Rightfully so.
Continuing with unmasked political rallies and "Gangasagar Mela" will be disastrous for people.
With Delta sublineages circulating and an uptick in Maharashtra, Kerala, AP, we need to intensify public health measures and scale up vaccination.
This is NOT the time to indulge in covid fatigue. Neither denial, nor panic is going to help us with containment. Only science will.
Those of us who have a hyphenated identity across India & the US, have the worst combination during COVID. When things are better in India, things get worse in the US and vice versa. There is never a moment of peace if you are riding the virus waves in both countries. Exhausting.
The curve for Delhi shows that public health interventions work and they save lives.
We have a lot more work to do, people are still suffering and in tremendous pain, but after Maharashtra, Delhi also looking hopeful.
However, we cannot declare premature victory, never again!
Cannot believe this happened. A surreal feeling.
I had a planned thread and a composed reaction but cannot remember a word of it.
Tears of joy in my eyes this evening to receive the highest professorship of this magnificent University...Thanks
@UMich
@umichsph
@UMRogelCancer
🆕
@BhramarBiostat
,
@UMichSPH
John D. Kalbfleisch Collegiate Professor & chair of Biostatistics, has been named Distinguished University Professor,
@UMich
's highest professorship for exceptional senior faculty & their contributions to academic excellence ➡️
Now elections are over in India and results are in.
Millions of bereaved families are mourning. Sickness and death have cast their shadows on everyone I know. Health care workers are exhausted.
Do the right thing at least NOW. What is done in India affects the whole world.
After fighting the COVID battle with my octogenarian father for the past two weeks (he is finally back home), today I lost a dear friend, only 50 years old.
Life is smelling of sickness and death, even in my inoculated first-world cocoon, there is no escape from this trauma.
In studying mathematics and statistics I always liked the greek letter Delta. "As Delta goes to zero"...we knew we were inching towards the proof of the theorem.
I hate the Delta variant. When will this delta go to zero?
I have a problem when I hear people saying "COVID will become like the flu". Maybe in disease terms but never in terms of the trauma and toll it has taken on us.
To me COVID will always be a reminder of the struggle, grief, sickness, conflict, confusion and loss we experienced.
Having to teach and work on the day of Diwali: not ideal.
Telling my students about the festival of lights: priceless!
Happy Diwali! Let there be luminosity in our lives, in our thinking and in this world.
My morning started with a call to my parents, two young octogenarians celebrating their 57th wedding anniversary 🌹in Kolkata!
They are my biggest blessing and inspiration in life: Ma and Baba, always standing by each other and everyone around them. An admirable partnership. ❤️
I am tired. This has been such a tough week.
The school shooting and the rising COVID cases in MI.
Omicron. Roe v Wade. The uncertainty and the exhaustion. never-ending.
Sometimes it is good to acknowledge that we are at a very difficult moment in the history of the world.
I have to get up at 6 am tomorrow to speak to 46 adolescent girls from India, about higher education.
This pandemic is brutal, but it has opened up a global corridor for education and mentoring.
I feel grateful for the opportunity to connect more with my country of origin.
In my conversation with Mr. Karan Thapar 2 weeks ago I had stated by the end of the month Delhi will be reporting less than 1000 cases based. It seemed over-optimistic at that time.
Today I looked at the dashboard and Delhi is right there.
Models can bring good news too.
Growing up in India as an young adult, I was always reminded by others that my spoken English was not very good. As a result, I still feel conscious when speaking in English.
Very few people commented that my Bengali was excellent. I wish they did.
Language hierarchy exists.
Even in the last one month, things have changed dramatically in terms of daily numbers in🇮🇳.
▶️ Cases ⬆️ 3.6 times
▶️ Deaths ⬆️ 6.3 times
But
▶️ Tests ⬆️ only 1.5 times
More importantly,
▶️ Daily vaccine doses ⬇️ by 38%.
This is just based on reported data, no models.
After a series of zoom interviews with Mr Karan Thapar, it was a pleasure and honor to finally meet him in person for a studio interview in Delhi, discusing the second and the "third wave". Going online tonight!
I am disheartened that 2021 is ending with the Omicron. I have been reluctant to comment on COVID in 2022 as I just feel tired. However, for a lecture on Monday, I realized I cannot avoid talking about the "Omicron in the room." So here is a 10-point strategy, adapted for India.
Well, this is how I am celebrating my election to
@theNAMedicine
, with my mother, in Kolkata at our family home. My mother has made incredible sacrifices for us. I could not be here without her.
Statisticians make fundamental contributions to medicine and I am so happy today!
The "Omicron is mild narrative" has influenced human behavior and led to unrestrained transmission in US, now leading to a collapse of essential services.
The cost of COVID is not just COVID.
A small fraction of an uber- large number is still a large number.
#Omicron
is causing ⬆️ infections leading to record shortages of workers leading to strain on healthcare systems and cancelled flights.
In the coming weeks I worry we will have further disruption to essential services such as food/grocery, education, pharmacy, transport, etc
এই ছবিটার ক্যাপশন তো অন্য কোনো ভাষায় হয় না, মাতৃভাষা ছাড়া! শুভ মহালয়া, শুভ শারদীয়া। বাতাসে পুজোর গন্ধ পাওয়া যাচ্ছে, আমেরিকায় বসেও তাই বীরেন্দ্রকৃষ্ণ ভদ্রের দেবীবন্দনা শুনছি আর কলকাতার জন্যে মন কেমন করছে।
We are tired of COVID, when will all of this be over?
Pandemics typically die in damped oscillatory manner, not overnight, we may have to fight COVID in 2022. Noone knows Covid's curve balls and end game.
My NY resolution: fight for global health equity & transparent data.7/7
The case counts are falling in India, yes, but at a slower rate than before. Only to be expected as we exit the lockdowns. That upturn in the effective R trajectory 👇🏽 tells us there is absolutely no reason to feel safe and let our guards down. Exercise more caution than before.
The COVID situation in India is not supposed to be a blame game, a political battle or a policy pandemonium.
Models are now projecting an unreal 5 lakhs cases, 25000 hospitalizations and 3000 deaths each day, within a month.
We need everything in our arsenal to stop the surge.
This weekend I am working on an article on my outlook for COVID in 2022. What stands out to me is how little official data are publicly available in India. The only reliable sources of data are supported by non profit volunteer organizations.
This is hurting us,big time.
I was trying to explain the vaccination goals in India for 2021 in a general talk via this overly simplistic slide.
Summary: We have delivered 220M doses in 5 months. We have to deliver 200M doses *each month* for the next seven months to reach our target.
Doable but tough.1/3
I would say I am a pretty seasoned academic.
But, I am not strong enough to get a paper rejected after 3 revisions and 9 months of review.
I worked tirelessly on this paper through a very difficult time. I respect the benchmark one has to attain, so all is fair. It still hurts.
An attempt to write about the pandemic in my mother tongue Bangla. It is hard to find the exact synonyms of scientific words that we use all the time in English, but I wanted to reach a different audience. Thanks to
@soutikBBC
for his encouragement.
I am grateful to everyone who reached out to contribute in various different ways to the crisis of virus in India: government, media, citizens, experts. If Maharashtra can bend the curve, the rest of the country can. We can only get through this with science and solidarity.👇
The best part of taking a different approach for the project on India through substantial public engagement is when you wake up in the morning and find emails from young scholars in India telling you they want to study biostatistics because they read one of your articles.🙏🙏
My opinion piece in today's Times of India. This is a global humanitarian crisis. It’s not just India’s fight, the world needs to pitch in. This came straight from my heart.
My lab came over to my home last night for our annual potluck.
We sang, we read, we shared artwork. Food from India, China, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Greece, Italy, USA.
It was memorable.
Every paper, grant, award will fade away, what will remain in an academic journey are people.
Finally, data suppression harms any planning in terms of resource allocation. Knowing the actual reality is always better for the public, for policymakers and for scientists. I am praying for a miraculous recovery for India as we all prepare for a covid-adaptive future. n/n
Cases are likely going to increase very rapidly in India over January.
Important to track hospital admissions and we REALLY need that data reported daily.
Rushing to the hospital in panic of a + test and mild symptoms is going to hurt,
not help.
Choose prudence over panic.
In my conversation with friends & family, it seems different people are paying different prices for the same vaccine in India. On the positive side, it has become easier to find an appointment for the first dose lately.
I wish there was a free national COVID immunization plan.
Sunday morning call with my parents in Kolkata.
Me: How are you doing?
My Parents: When is the third wave coming?
Me not forecasting a 3rd wave yet seems anticlimactic to them. Models are guided by data & assumptions, not sensationalism. No data astrology, only data science.
India needs to get its act together on COVID vaccination.
Our desirable target is 8-10M doses a day to vaccinate 800 M adults in about 6-8 months.
We are falling further and further behind from our target every single day .
Failure in every dimension is not acceptable.
Two new members in saree at
@theNAMedicine
induction.👌👌
With the brilliant
@GKangInd
who was elected as an international member of the academy this year.
It is hard to believe that I have never met her in person!
Congratulations Dr. Kang!
After reviewing many papers on COVID-19,my singlemost realization is, taking a sampling and study design course should be a requirement for anyone planning or conducting a study. Be it a clinician or a computer scientist, you need to think about who is in your sample.
We need much larger scale lockdowns in India. Things are getting worse everyday. What are we waiting for?
It is a national medical emergency.
At this point lives are so much more important than livelihoods.
Provide assistance to the poor, but please lockdown and vaccinate.
2. With a lot of people falling sick over a short period of time, even if a small fraction needs medical care, the burden will stress the system.
This will affect care of other diseases. We know disruption in care leads to mortality.
The cost of Covid is not just Covid. 3/7
One unexpected side effect of modeling the pandemic in India is travel consulting for my friends and family. "When is it safe to go to India?"
For the last one month, random strangers have been writing to me asking the same.
When I say "July", I feel like a data astrologer.
Noone wants lockdowns. There is a middle road. Choose prudence over panic.
Wear masks. They work.
Avoid large indoor gatherings. Interact in well ventillated spaces. Use home tests before an event.Get vaccinated. The vaccines are still holding up against severe infections.6/7
I was writing a piece on Kerala and noticed something interesting. The "Kerala Model" has been highly debated. Kerala is contributing more than 50% of India's "reported" cases right now. I do think the state needs to introduce more stringent restrictions but here is a paradox.1/4
We mostly share our successes on twitter.
To reduce this tradition of generating selection bias, I want to share that last week I received the highest number of rejections in terms of papers, grants, awards (on a per week scale).
I still love what I do and hope to do it better.
We have extensively discussed & analyzed underreporting of deaths in India from a quantitative & investigative perspective. Absolutely critical.
The 2nd wave has left very few of us untouched. I urge you to sum up our collective experiences. The reported numbers do not add up.
Uttar Pradesh's growth in spread is alarming. Our models are failing at this high rate of growth to come up with sensible predictions. Any data on variant distribution in UP?
Such surges lead to fatalities, not due to clinical differences but due to the collapse of the system.
I am truly disappointed that will phase out in October. All our models rely on their API.
In an already data poor environment in India, this is a huge loss. The noble voluntary effort should have been supported by the officials.
I am super-excited to share that I have been awarded a visiting by-fellowship at the Churchill College, University of Cambridge for Fall of 2022, thanks to the amazing support of
@d_spiegel
and
@srichardson962
. I look forward to learning from the amazing colleagues in the UK.🙏🏽
I started my morning with a lecture to students and faculty of the Jhargram Raj College, a college with many first generational learners and serving a tribal community. Two years ago, I could not think of lecturing in Jhargram from my Ann Arbor office. One world, one classroom.
Eight states have an R above 2.0. It feels like a sandstorm in a desert, you just bury your head till it is over.
I wish there was a comprehensive statement on the spatio-temporal distribution of the new variants in India supported by transparent data. I guess I am daydreaming.
I can hardly believe that I traveled like this to India 👇on November 1, 2020, exactly a year ago. Scary.
It was the day before the US election. No definitive word on vaccines then. Everything felt grim and uncertain.
Things are so much better a year later. Thank you science.
We are seeing a surge in India. It is only to be expected. Our team has been tracking these metrics for more than two years 👇🏽: We are all tired, but the virus is still there.
Time to elevate your personal preventions, combat COVID with caution. Choose prudence over panic.
I am supposed to give a plenary lecture at a conference in Pokhra, Nepal in May. Today I booked a helicopter ride to the Mount Everest basecamp after the conference.
I like my life.
Honored to be appointed to the WHO-UN COVID-19 mortality assessment Technical Advisory Group and learn from a great group of colleagues from around the globe. We need resilient data reporting systems to inform policy and to fight a public health crisis.
@DrSamira_Asma
@XihongLin
This thread is about building better biostatistics capacity in India.
For a country which has excellent statistics and one of the world's best statistics institutes, the ISI, it is a pity that the culture of collaborating with medicine and public health has not matured. 1/n
I do not know what made the virus curve decline in India.
All hypothesis: young population, cross-immunity, genetics, poor hygiene are conjectural at this point. We do not have a causal explanation.
I do know India as a nation is far from herd immunity and we need the vaccine.
A full day in the office after 17 months of exile. Three profound realizations.
A. I have a gorgeous office.
B. I really missed wearing cool shoes to work.
C. My jade plants are true survivors.
Looking forward to the magic of being in the classroom with students
@umichsph
.
It is exciting to be back in one of the world's largest, finest and kindest Biostatistics departments as chair and realize (one more time) that I have a pretty spectacular and welcoming office!
Looking forward to seeing all my friends and collaborators
@umichsph
. Go Blue!
In the past few days we have seen some progressive policy changes in India regarding treatment recommendations & vaccine dissemination. It seems science is finally making its way.
I hope similar scientific rationale is applied to design careful exit strategies from lockdowns.
1. In terms of getting an infection, the world data shows people with vaccination and past infection are again at appreciable risk of getting COVID, without boosters.
Many people in India has had both vaccination and covid, this may be helpful but we do not have data yet.
2/7
I finally arrived in Kolkata.
Feels like the eye of a sandstorm of COVID raging through the city.
I could not stay in my apartment as the floor was cordoned off with red tapes for active COVID cases.
Looking out from the balcony of my parent's home, I feel so tired of COVID.