Ben Noble
@BenHNoble
Followers
11,657
Following
2,931
Media
1,734
Statuses
16,689
Assoc. Prof. of Russian Politics @UCL | Assoc. Fellow @ChathamHouse | Book on Alexei Navalny ( @OUPAcademic , @HurstPublishers + others) | 🏳️🌈🇬🇧🇨🇦
London, England
Joined June 2015
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Adalet
• 242820 Tweets
Chester
• 112909 Tweets
ベイマックス
• 109370 Tweets
Merchan
• 102490 Tweets
Jean Carroll
• 81133 Tweets
Milli
• 76841 Tweets
#2KDay
• 76197 Tweets
Eagles
• 68396 Tweets
Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi
• 40881 Tweets
Franco Escamilla
• 40443 Tweets
#CristinaMostraElTitulo
• 36548 Tweets
Packers
• 31129 Tweets
Barcola
• 31055 Tweets
Dick Cheney
• 22786 Tweets
Mert
• 16855 Tweets
Bafana Bafana
• 15974 Tweets
Ganesh Chaturthi
• 15542 Tweets
Galler - Türkiye
• 14877 Tweets
Kenan
• 13602 Tweets
#FRAITA
• 12925 Tweets
Chaine
• 12597 Tweets
Go Birds
• 12344 Tweets
Sergio Mendes
• 11027 Tweets
#BizimÇocuklar
• 10994 Tweets
Olise
• 10126 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Do you have an idea for a general readership book relating to Eastern Europe and Eurasia? If so, let me tell you about a new series from
@HurstPublishers
, for which I’m the founding series editor. 🧵 1/?
8
47
139
Ukrainian flag flying atop the beacon above Richmond, North Yorkshire, UK.
107
486
6K
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, "urged everybody to unite around the president" – the very need to say this tells us something...
124
740
3K
Utterly pathetic.
19
152
937
There is evidence that the elite in Russia is rallying around Putin, including those who originally expressed misgivings about the invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war.
Is this unity durable – and how might it impact decision-making?
A thread. 1/?
45
224
839
Russian universities and scientific organisations to lose (legal) access to international journals and databases, as major publishers cease providing their services to those in Russia and Belarus.
20
229
786
Speculation about the possibility of a coup against Vladimir Putin is getting a bit out of hand. But the mere fact of this speculation tell us about the nature of Russia’s political system – and about those commenting on it.
A 🧵. 1/?
17
120
643
A child being detained by police at a demonstration in support of Alexei Navalny. The authorities likely want to dissuade young people from rallying behind Navalny (as they have on platforms such as TikTok), but images like this might well have the opposite effect
#Russia
38
370
620
Launching a war to stop a war? What nonsense.
FM
#Lavrov
: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there.
20K
949
3K
69
133
527
The “Donbas consensus” is a phrase being used to refer to the “rally ‘round the flag” effect currently seen in Russia in relation to the country’s war on Ukraine.
Is it real – and why might it collapse relatively soon?
A thread. 1/?
9
131
451
Can't quite believe that the book on Alexei Navalny that I've written with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
for
@HurstPublishers
now exists. Short 🧵 on how the book came into existence. 1/?
27
111
443
Russian authorities not calling Will Smith's incident at the Oscars a "punch" – they're calling it a "special arm operation"...
8
31
357
Hearing lots of people say that Vladimir Putin doesn't have to worry about public opinion – that he's a totalitarian dictator who rules through coercion alone. But that's just plain wrong.
17
50
322
Vladimir Putin has just signed a decree on Russian “traditional values”. What are they?
There are 17, according to the decree:
1. Life.
2. Dignity
3. Human rights and freedoms.
4. Patriotism.
66
81
323
This year has been... challenging, to say the least. But I'm ending it with a small silver lining: really honoured to have been appointed an Associate Fellow of
@ChathamHouse
in the Russia and Eurasia Programme
@CHRussiaEurasia
– a stellar team led by
@jamesnixey
.
42
8
301
For some analysis of Russian opposition to the war in Ukraine, see this in
@ConversationUK
by me today – useful context, perhaps, for Peskov's comment:
13
77
280
One of Russia's richest men – head of Nornickel, Vladmir Potanin – criticises possibility of confiscating assets of foreign companies that have ceased operating in Russia due to the war in Ukraine. "This will take us back a hundred years, to 1917".
29
107
254
Coming to a bookshop near you in August 2021! Thrilled to be writing this book on Alexei Navalny and his movement with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
for
@HurstPublishers
. Details of US and foreign-language versions below.
#Russia
@UCLSSEES
@CHRussiaEurasia
23
42
274
Completely forgot today is the birthday of Jason Bourne AKA Ashch'f Lshtshfum...
10
35
247
There is a monument to condensed milk in Belarus... 😮🤤
12
37
249
Still can't quite believe it, but "Navalny" has been shortlisted for the
@Pushkin_House
Book Prize. It's a real honour to see the book – co-authored with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
– placed alongside such excellent publications.
#pushkinprize2022
26
18
223
Getting detained by police in Russia for holding up a blank piece of paper...
А в Нижнем девушку задержали просто за белый лист бумаги. Тоже армию дискредитирует, видимо. Дурдом 🤦🏻♂️
369
3K
9K
8
106
219
This excellent post by
@faridaily_
– translated by
@ichbinilya
and
@lizafokht
– shows how "Putin’s dream of a consolidation among the Russian elite has come true", as sanctions have convinced many members of the elite that the West is out to get them. 2/?
9
47
203
The impact of the war in Ukraine on Russia domestically will depend to a large degree on the Kremlin’s ability to control the narrative.
A 🧵 on how this fits into pre-invasion moves to cripple political opposition and independent media in Russia. 1/?
5
78
194
It's all getting very real... First page proofs of book on Alexei Navalny, co-authored with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
, to be published by
@HurstPublishers
and
@OUPAcademic
– available for pre-order now
5
19
200
Very interesting shift in rhetoric…
Russian army says the first stage of its military operation are "completed", and that troops will now focus on the "liberation" of Ukraine's Donbas region
177
163
376
23
48
184
And, as
@LucanWay
notes, this is a dynamic seen in regimes beyond Russia: "Sense of existential threat is a powerful source of regime durability in revolutionary regimes I have studied." 4/?
I am a strong supporter of sanctions against R. But they may be strengthening P regime by heightening siege mentality and increasing cohesion among regime elites. Sense of existential threat is a powerful source of regime durability in revolutionary regimes I have studied.
4
25
150
1
25
176
What to make of pro-Russia demonstrations across Europe? See this piece by
@CharlieHParker
for
@thetimes
, with comment from
@MarkGaleotti
,
@SamRamani2
and me (but ignore the article title).
@UCLSSEES
12
76
170
Still find it hard to believe that it was only just over a year ago – on 29 January 2021 – that I reached out to
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
to ask whether they wanted to write a book on Navalny together. There are now 10 editions of "Navalny" in nine different languages. 1/?
11
22
177
Statement by
@UCLSSEES
staff condemning Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war (in English, Ukrainian, and Russian).
7
73
168
What language should we use regarding so-called “elections” in non-democracies?
Vladimir Putin’s announcement yesterday has made the question very relevant once again.
Quick 🧵. 1/
24
31
163
Important statement by
@BASEES
@aseeestudies
and
@AATSEEL_Tweets
(in English, Ukrainian, and Russian)
1
53
157
One plausible goal of sanctions might be to provoke splits within the elite, but it looks – for the moment, at least – that sanctions have, rather, brought elite groups closer together in their opposition to the West. 3/?
5
24
160
Feel deeply honoured
@ratemyskyperoom
. Yes, it’s a backpack: Swiss Army, from the 1950s. Can we submit this for the REF
@UCLSSEES
? We could say we thought the “R” stood for “Room”, not “Research”...
Love the art. Is that a backpack? Pillow. Plant. Lighting. 10/10
@Ben_H_Noble
#MagnitskyAct
11
6
137
2
4
160
But how long will this last? "Rallying 'round the flag" effects aren't indefinite, even if they can be sustained by a number of factors, including media control and reshaping people's emotional connection to the state and their identities. 5/?
4
22
152
If you're looking for an engaging, general-readership overview of political opposition in Russia over the last 20(ish) years, then see my co-authored book with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
, published by
@HurstPublishers
and
@OUPAcademic
.
1
39
152
Much like his life’s work, Alexei Navalny’s death shows the corrupt brutality of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
In this
@ChathamHouse
piece, Nikolai Petrov and I reflect on Navalny's significance and legacy.
@CHRussiaEurasia
@UCLSSEES
8
55
156
Dear reader, I don't quite know what to do. I've just come across a webpage in Russian that describes me as a "sex-specialist".
17
1
150
Alarming silence on Iceland’s relocation — that’s the real story here, isn’t it?
18
10
149
By the way, the book "Putin v. the People" by
@samagreene
and
@gbrunc
does a brilliant job, among other things, of looking into the "rallying 'round the flag" effect after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. 6/?
1
18
146
It is likely, therefore, that rumours of a coup will not result in a coup, but will only lead to Putin's increased willingness to use coercion to keep elite groups in check – and to make sure his approvals stay high. 19/?
8
16
138
A reminder that Putin doesn't – and can't – spend all of his time dealing with the war on Ukraine. Domestic crises continue...
19
43
136
Can't wait to hear what
@McFaul
thinks of the book on Alexei Navalny I've written with
@JanMattiD
and
@m_lallouet
for
@HurstPublishers
and
@OUPAcademic
#Russia
@UCLSSEES
5
23
144
There have been more than 15,000 detentions so far at anti-war protests across Russia, according to
@OvdInfo
. The group stresses that this figure includes multiple detentions of the same people.
❗️ ОВД-Инфо насчитал уже более 15 000 задержаний* участников антивоенного протеста в России.
* 15 000 — количество задержаний, но не задержанных: одних и тех же людей могут задерживать несколько раз.
5
99
496
7
48
141
One might ask why motherhood and apple pie are missing...
More seriously, this is the broad project of which the "LGBT propaganda" bill forms a part. Putin wants to claim that Russia is defending values that the liberal "collective West" is trampling on. And...
3
11
142
As
@russophiliac
notes, however, there are reasons to be sceptical of polling during the war, including because of social desirability bias: the pressure people feel to say what they think they should say rather than what they really believe. 7/?
3
16
138
If you want to get a clear sense of quite how different the message many Russians are getting regarding events in Ukraine compared to information outside of the country, then do follow
@francska1
of
@BBCMonitoring
.
The flood of lies continues on Russian state TV today
Propagandist Olga Skabeyeva claims Russian strikes have taken out over 800 Ukrainian military sites before pointedly adding "Russian troops are taking all measures to guarantee the safety of civilians"
9
39
208
6
54
138
What do authoritarian legislatures and legislators do? For answers, see my article with Jennifer Gandhi and
@MilanSvolik
– the introduction to a Comparative Political Studies special issue co-edited by the three of us. Really pleased this is out!
@UCLSSEES
2
40
139
With 85% of ballots counted, this is the results map by Russian regions. Only one region – Nenets Autonomous Okrug – shows a majority of voters against the amendment package.
#Russia
7
43
131
For those not already doing so, really do pay attention when
@AndreiSoldatov
and
@irinaborogan
provide analysis — they know what they’re talking about.
Putin is reportedly cracking down on the FSB agency that botched Russia’s Ukraine prep. For Meduza,
@AndreiSoldatov
and
@irinaborogan
tell the story behind this bad intelligence.
50
477
987
3
38
136
But back to 2022. Elite consolidation in Russia after the 24 February invasion, and in the face of sanctions, may well both align elite preferences on certain issues *and* incentivise people not to make public their policy differences for fear of being labelled a traitor. 7/?
1
15
131
This is an image of recent voting results from the State Duma – the lower chamber of Russia's national legislature, the Federal Assembly.
A 🧵 on the Duma, voting, and what this might tell us about opposition to the Russian military's war on Ukraine. 1/?
5
42
128
... that the West is trying to interfere in Russia's affairs by promoting "non-traditional" values.
This is, then, an attempt to frame Russia's war on Ukraine as part of a broader cultural clash.
6
11
126
But it likely also reflects a general increase in support for state institutions – a classic “rally ‘round the flag” effect, which relates less to the particular activities of institutions/actors and more to a generalised sense of the need for unity in the face of a threat. 6/?
3
12
120
Who has Putin’s ear? Inside the president’s inner circle – excellent article by
@Andrew__Roth
and
@PjotrSauer
, with comments from
@faridaily_
,
@AndreiSoldatov
,
@Stanovaya
, Vladimir Gel'man, and me.
@UCLSSEES
@uclnews
3
34
123
One indicator that it's wrong: the enormous resources ploughed into state propaganda.
@samagreene
and
@gbrunc
's concept of the "co-construction of power" is also really useful here.
6
15
125
The Kremlin has instructed regional authorities in Russia to organise public activities in support of the army and the "special military operation" (i.e., war) in Ukraine, according to reporting by
@ru_rbc
.
9
92
121
Since Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, the narrative regarding (dis)unity within the Russian elite has varied. Initially, there was talk of shock and disquiet, with focus on those voices opposing the war – even if only obliquely. 2/?
2
7
111
After 2 weeks of multiple health screens and asking everyone to quarantine, I surprised my closest inner circle with a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time.
2
13
119
File under "depressingly predictable" and "Russian (in)justice system": Alexei Navalny found guilty of large-scale fraud.
7
39
112
Irony is dead.
Russia's Central Electoral Commission has released new informational posters in the run-up to elections – but based on Soviet designs.
The Russian state further embracing its return to the past...
10
47
115
A pile of clothes left on the steps of the main FSB building in St Petersburg: “Clean by tomorrow. The Motherland won’t wait!”
9
29
116
Moreover, rumours may lead to more rumours – paranoia may encourage more paranoia – raising the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy. And yet, I still don't think a coup is around the corner. Why? 14/?
1
4
107
A plan is being discussed by Russia's Presidential Administration to place a moratorium on the adoption of unpopular socially significant decisions from autumn 2023 until after the 2024 presidential election.
What does this tell us? Very short 🧵. 1/
3
28
113
Indeed, recent analysis provides evidence of the difference social desirability bias makes. Philipp Chapkovski and
@maxlschaub
argue that accounting for the impact of social desirability bias reduces reported support for the invasion from 68% to 53%. 9/?
1
19
109
Is there any space left for political opposition in Russia following the February invasion of Ukraine?
Yes – but it’s shrinking quickly.
A 🧵. 1/?
17
40
113
Many people are talking about the rocketing approval ratings for Vladimir Putin. But let me note something else: a sharp increase in approval ratings for the Russian State Duma, the lower chamber of the national legislature (the Federal Assembly). 2/?
2
16
109
In fact, my own research focuses on elite factionalism in Russia and its impact on law-making. My basic point is that heated, bitter disputes between elite actors are more widespread than often appreciated – and ... 11/?
2
16
110
Putin’s personalist authoritarian system is based to a large degree on secrecy, coercion, and fear. The combination of warring factions and information limitations is, therefore, ripe for gossip and rumours. 13/?
2
7
104
A key issue here is whether all policy areas will see this increased elite homogeneity. Message discipline may well be tightest re: the ongoing war, although not perfect – see Medinsky vs. Kadyrov, as in this piece by
@Andrew__Roth
and
@PjotrSauer
. 8/?
1
18
107
Google thinks I've authored a rather interesting-looking book...
7
0
109
The State Duma is often dismissed – not simply by external observers like me but also by many Russians – as irrelevant: a “rubber stamp”. But look at the approval rating shoot up in March 2022. 4/?
1
12
106
Good overview by
@Andrew__Roth
of the difficult position Vladimir Putin is in on the eve of the 9 May Victory Day parade in this
@ObserverUK
article, with comments from
@jeffaedmonds
,
@pavel_luzin
,
@ABarbashin
and me.
@UCLSSEES
11
37
111
It might be tempting to dismiss all of this talk of a possible coup as tabloid-driven nonsense from people who don’t know much about Russia. There’s certainly a good dose of that. But rumours of a coup are made more likely in a political system like Russia’s. 12/?
1
6
102
And that's the issue: criticism of the war is clearly *not* the same as calling for a coup – but it may well be perceived like that. 10/?
1
8
104
This might have something to do with the chamber’s speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin, performing loyalty to Vladimir Putin – in the words of Andrei Pertsev, he is one of Putin’s “most loyal infantryman”. 5/?
1
15
104
In this section of a
@CHRussiaEurasia
report released today – 'Myths and Misconceptions in the Debate on Russia' –
@eschulmann
and I tackle the myth that governance in Russia is a one-man show
#Russia
@UCLSSEES
5
25
107
Although the article stresses that “[n]o one has directly criticized Putin” personally, the president's centrality to the invasion means that criticism of Putin may well (increasingly) be inferred by the Kremlin from criticism of the war. 7/?
1
4
100
And that gets to the nature of the political system and the current situation. Given that Putin has constructed a personalist authoritarian regime, given his centrality to the invasion, and given his use of venomous language regarding "scum and traitors"... 8/?
2
6
103
Ukrainian flag flying very prominently in the village of Crathorne, North Yorkshire, UK.
9
3
105
And such perceptions may well be encouraged with evidence of disquiet between members of the siloviki – those in control of the coercive power needed to challenge Putin – as discussed in this
@cepa
article by
@AndreiSoldatov
and
@irinaborogan
. 11/?
1
8
97
This is a bias strengthened, no doubt, by the increased costs associated with going "off message" during Russia’s current war, including the possibility of fines or imprisonment. 8/?
2
13
100
An article in the
@washingtonpost
by
@CatherineBelton
and
@gregpmiller
looks at growing opposition (of various forms) to the ongoing war by members of the economic elite: “oligarchs” and senior state officials. 6/?
2
7
97
According to
@levada_ru
polling, the State Duma has never been as popular as it is right now, at least since Putin came to power. 3/?
2
12
101
Delighted that Mark Galeotti has joined UCL SSEES for a three-year term as Honorary Professor
@UCLSSEES
@MarkGaleotti
3
16
100
Really exciting position at
@UCLSSEES
just announced: Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Soviet / Post-Soviet History. Please apply and/or help spread the word! If applying, feel free to get in touch for an informal chat about SSEES / UCL.
2
65
100
Very brave – or foolhardy – would be members of the elite willing to try to topple Putin in a coup with his public approval ratings this high, not to mention the coup-proofing hurdles discussed by
@adam_e_casey
in this
@ForeignPolicy
article. 18/?
2
10
94
And yet, we should be careful with this "53%", too. For one thing, the authors note that the sample is skewed in a way that might *underplay* the level of true support. But also, as
@russophiliac
and others note, polling figures might give a false sense of certainty. 10/?
1
10
96
And my research on the often-dismissed State Duma – the lower chamber of the Federal Assembly – suggests that we might get clues as to the unity of the elite by looking at the law-making process. 19/?
6
14
96
As the economic impact of sanctions are more keenly felt – by both the elite and the Russian people – there will be fewer resources available to satisfy competing groups. And that may well begin to challenge the current unity seen within the elite. 17/?
2
18
97
I discussed this in a separate 🧵, looking into how durable this apparent consensus might be – and how it could affect decision-making. 4/?
There is evidence that the elite in Russia is rallying around Putin, including those who originally expressed misgivings about the invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war.
Is this unity durable – and how might it impact decision-making?
A thread. 1/?
45
224
839
2
6
95
... the mere fact of criticism – even if not naming him – can take on an existential edge. 9/?
1
6
94