Cycle Bottom
@BULLReturns
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Retiring Investment Manager sharing their 10x10x10=1000 methodology
South East Asia
Joined May 2009
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Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in
#cyclicals
, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
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How to locate the next 10-20 bagger like $BTU $RIG (4Q 2020)
- a near cycle bottom is required
- 96% plus sell off from cycle peak
- material balance leverage with survivability liquidity runway
- huge operating leverage to spot price revival (3-5x spot move = >25x FCF move)
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#Uranium
titbit: we are hearing Utilities are even reaching out to nano caps for offtake now, the game does a 180 degree turn, when supply is underpressure.
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#uranium
thesis for 2024:
Spot will achieve $100 1H 2024 & $120 2H 2024
Long term pricing will move up above $80 creating an environment for funding capex via offtake at >$40 cash margins.
Sector performance:
Explorers 5-10x
Pre-production< $200m 2-3x
Large caps 1x
ETFs 2x
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2022
#commodity
price outlook to drive portfolio returns:
#Oil
$100 plus +40% move = +100% in related nano cashflowing stocks
#Uranium
$70-75 +70% move = +175% in selected nano caps
Met
#coal
Emerging producers, implied 1x EV/CF at current spot, likely +100%
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How will we likely play the
#uranium
theme from here:
+100-200% gains into peak
#oil
pricing. Scale down and harvest material gains.
-65-75% move in U stocks as
#commodities
tank and potential of recession takes hold. Scale back in
+500+800% gains with
#commodity
revival
1/2
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The best playbooks for 20 baggers are:
A) deeply destroyed sector, with 10yrs + time spent in the wilderness
B) the cycle implosive was so severe that research coverage is pretty much zero near the cycle bottom
C) reversion to mean a certainty as demand achieves new highs
1/2
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We would expect
#uranium
stocks to move through their previous upleg highs over the next few weeks as $65 plus spot is achieved and held.
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Our
#uranium
estimates based on our current view of play from 1st Sept 2023:
Dec 2023 spot $63-67 = sector +50%, top 10 performers avg return +200%
Mid 2024 spot $70-75 = sector +75%, top 10 avg return +300%
Dec 2024 spot $75-80 = sector +125%, top 10 avg return +400%
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In life we only need one self fulfilling prophecy to change the course of our life's.... Its here now for the next several months
#uranium
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#uranium
returns 2024-2025:
$EU $DYL $PDN +50%-100%
$AEE $FSY $WUC $AEC $LAM $GXU $EL8 +250-500%
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#PreciousMetals
masterclass incoming today.
85% probability that
#gold
then
#silver
with move higher in 2024
Selected micro caps will deliver >7x returns
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#uranium
parabolic 4th Quartile of the cycle - possible moves over months +$30-80 from here.
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#Russian
100-500 baggers from today's lows over the next decade:
FYI no bid so no real market
$SBER
$MGNT
$PHOR
$SVST
$OGZD
$LKOD
Who has ever provided their followers such a list?
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#uranium
spot estimate 13-18th Sept: $45-46 +5.9-8.2%
Stocks +12-18%
Spot Expectations baked into stock valuations $60-65
Action:
Buy if you are underweight
HOLD if you are overweight
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Hottest incoming fresh asymmetric theme is
#preciousmetal
stocks....the last 3 months of accummulation should see us through 5-10x returns over 24 months.
Perspective: likely more than double
#uranium
returns from here
#repeatablecyclicality
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$SBSW <$3 = > 600% return... Recession lows incoming
On March I wrote a report on my blog called “
#Palladium
and
#platinum
: The dawn of a new bull market.” At the end of the report I warned that I expected more losses in the sector. And today $SBSW touched 5 year lows. My top pick for PGMs is $GENM
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Another incoming cycle bottom < $4 (achievable on a reasonable recession) > $20 reversion to mean = 4-6x
#DryBulk
Stock specific opportunities likely > 10x incoming.
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Show us the incentives and we will show you the outcomes....
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The vision we have for 2024 is an additional set of fresh asymmetric themes for 3-7yr timeframes, often entries are -95% plus from previous peaks, clear
#repeatablecyclicality
based on reversion to the mean cashflow.
We guide for those wanting to create value in their life's.
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Thought of the day: My Specialist Dentist who purchased $PDN near the top of last cycle and rode it to the bottom is showing no interest in
#uranium
stocks at this point, hence this upleg still has legs.
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#lithium
on the cycle clock 0-5 minutes range:
Look for > 50% IRR projects round tripping to last cycle lows
Cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out
= > 8x returns
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To our followers, if you are underweight
#uranium
stocks, the initial 40% fall level has been triggered, we suggest a scale in, say 20% deployment for every 7% move down on the pre-ETF entry nano cap spectrum. We estimate 100-150% return was this deployment over 2 to 6 months.
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Fresh incoming country cycle bottom, starts to look interesting < $7
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#Potash
stocks are another incoming cycle bottom, ensure liquidity runways are sufficient over 2024 for 2025 revival
Potash is another sector that has given away it's gains from the previous couple years. Pictured here is the chart of Verde Agritech a Brazilian Potash Producer I track, from nearly $12 all the way back down to $1.
#potash
$npk.to
#cycleinvesting
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Top of our scale in ranges are getting close to being hit, still expect up to 40% downside from these levels over the next 3-6 months, but 8x upside is looking a reality with incoming buy points.
#lithium
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2nd draw down fully underway folks, this bottom will depend on the acceleration higher of the spot price over the next 5 to 10 trading days, as to whether is will be a 25-30% decline or the deeper 35-50%. Then the next bounce will produce +100-175% with $65-75 spot
#uranium
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Our
#uranium
portfolio expected performance and actions over the next 18 months from today:
Spot $40 = +40% gains
Spot $50 = +150% gains = scale down 15%
Spot $60 = +250% = scale 30%
Spot $70 = +350% = scale 45%
Spot $80 = +450% = scale 65%
Spot $90 = +550% = scale 85%
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What the
#uranium
pumpers dont want you to understand about this cycle:
The scarcity of stocks is much less
The knowledge of last cycle and returns is too overstated and too many expect it to repeat this cycle.
Moderate sector return (100-200%) expectations from here is best.
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Overnight we achieved over 3000 followers, we try to provide logical, no hype thoughts on how to improve your success with investing in cycles. Rules include buying early, having patience and scaling out as overvaluation occurs provide the precepts for creating wealth & mutual...
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#uranium
potential acquisition target list over the next 12-24 months:
African targets: $EL8 $FSY $AEE
US targets: $WSTRF $AEC
Mixed jurisdiction target: $LAM
Acquirers: Chinese players, $EU $DNN $UEC $DYL
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We are hearing from our key pre-production
#uranium
investees that the large Utilities in the US are trying to long term contract in the early 60s. Looks like they will be in for some real sticker shock in the next 6 months. We don't want contracting below an $80 floor.
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When presented with a 10-15yr market bottom, don't dabble go for the jugular, 2025 is likely to present this opportunity, maybe only 10 such opportunities in a lifetime.
#lithium
&
#preciousmetal
stocks are 2 fresh asymmetric themes unfolding near cycle lows currently.
Life changing opportunities come around very rarely in life, maybe once every 3-4 years…
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Whats best to do, for your
#uranium
portfolio to move from 1-2x to 4-8x from here (for investors with <$200k exposure)?
A) Don't focus on the daily movements
B) Let the spot move up above > $100
C) Let your positions kick some goals in adding value to their projects
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#uranium
don't miss the 5 best stock performance days in the final quarter of the year...these will be 50% of one's return, stay the course. Our Pre-Production stock selection is trading at an average 40% discount to the current spot price, not sustainable on a 6 months timeframe
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Why we are not selling our
#uranium
positions at $85 spot.....
A) Valuations are far to low at < 1x 2026 CF on our key positions
B) Dry powder is deployed into higher return new asymmetric themes
C) The probability of higher elevated price levels for longer are about to occur
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Potential timeframes of each of the above 3 phases are determined by price.
Phase 1: 1-6 months; U spot $60-75
Phase 2: 2-10 months; U spot $40-50
Phase 3: 6-48 months; U spot $85-150
2/2
#cyclicalinvesting101
#uranium
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Plenty of 10 baggers in micro cap
#gold
stocks as $3k is achieved 2H 2025....get in while they still resemble roadkill.
#Gold
futs passing $2,500 while many Real Jrs are trading at significant discounts even for gold at $1,600
What sparks the gap close no one knows... But once it starts it will be epic. Incredible bull potential even without FOMO premiums
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Upcoming
#Uranium
M&A:
Acquirers: Those with high value paper: $BOE $EU $UUUU $PDN $CCJ
Acquirees: Those near term <30 months production or great pounds in strategic locations: $WUC $AEE $FSY $EL8
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#commodities
are on fire, related micro caps will do 5x over 6-9 months. Be ready for the blow off top scale down.
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Entry point is the key compounder:
$2 = 8-9x
$4 = 4x
$8 = < 2x
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The supply reload into the spot is generally around 1.5mlbs per month on average, hence if volumes exceed 3.0mlbs per month the price impact will be > +$5
#uranium
🐳Cantor Fitzgerald: "The spot
#uranium
market is incredibly tight. In the event a buyer was to show up looking for ~1MMlb, the order probably takes 3-4 weeks to fill and gaps the price up $10/lb."🎆🤠🐂
#UraniumSqueeze
#Nuclear
#EnergySecurity
#NetZero
🌊🏄 🎩
@U308RM
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The 4th quartile parabolic stage has commenced
#uranium
We are around 30% from initial scale down commencing through 450%
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The very basis to our asymmetric theme selection.... Learn the religion
How To Invest in Cyclical Stocks | 1 Page Summary
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It's officially 4th quartile entry for this
#uranium
cycle now, our average return expectations from our portfolio is 3x, with a range of 75% to 5x on our current 8 positions.
Note: those saying it's early cycle, have no idea of cycles and accelerating risk.
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The
#cyclical
ride we are looking to harvest over the next 2-6 months:
#crudeoil
+20-40%= stock returns 30-60%= scale down 75% (cycle returns 15-20x)
#uranium
+20-40%= stock returns 35-125%= scale down 35% (cycle returns 10-15x)
#oilservices
+20-50% day rates= 50-75% = 35%
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#uranium
sector rotation outperformance
Sell the pre-production trading at > 7x CF like $BOE
Exchange for those trading at 1x CF or less $FSY $AEE $WUC $AEC $LAM
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Asymmetric theme rotations:
Scale downs
#Bitcoin
miners next +20% through 150%
#uranium
stocks next +75% through 500%
#Russianstocks
(post 2026)next +75% through 400%
Scale ins
#gold
&
#silver
stocks next -5-25%
#lithium
post the next -35-60% stock moves
#industrialmetals
etc
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#Uranium
Cycle Clock
$80-85 moving into the 4th Quartile
$100-120 Mid 4th Quartile
$120-$180 Late 4th Quartile
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The secret sauce to
#commodity
stock selection (often found near cycle lows, never found near cycle tops): project matrix requirements
A) MC < 5% of full NPV
B) Capex < 20% of full NPV
C) IRR > 45%
D) MC <50% of annual EBITDA
This combo often creates 10 baggers
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So is dilution, knowing the difference is the key.
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Remember high probability is better than low possibilities which can get one in much trouble
#uranium
We will alert our followers to our initial scale down being achieved.
I truly believe $400-500 in uranium is a possibility.
Were in an epic bullmarket for uranium imo. Cheers ☢️☢️☢️🚀🚀🚀
#uranium
#lifechangingprofits
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How many asymmetric themes should one be running at any given time? 4 is probably ideal, at different stages of their respective upcycle.
Incoming fresh
#asymmetric
themes 2024:
#Lithium
#gold
#potash
#CRE
#ChineseStocks
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For our followers: Now that the sky has started it's fall and you have stocked up on dry powder as we have guided, the next step is to review watchlist entry points. It's key one moves to a Greed mode over the next 6 months as markets bottom, removal of Fearfulness.
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Avoid getting slaughtered in a bear market....
A) Don't buy the dips
B) Look for cycle bottoming
C) Terminate all margin positions or you will be terminated
D) Dry powder is king to make the 10x returns post the markets bottoming
E) Long term entry points are on the horizon
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If you purchased a
#uranium
stock last night the average forward return will likely be 4-5x
Assuming it falls by 30-50% into the 1H 2023 market bottom, returns expand to 6-10x
So scale in slowly, time is on your side, avoid FOMO, the lower the entry, the higher the return
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It's great when
#uranium
positions move 200% of ones initial purchase price in a single day, how many moved 100% for you today? $EU $DYL
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Avoid flip flopping on ones
#uranium
positions.
It's senseless to move from <1x 2026 CF positions into >6x 2026 positions.
Make sure ones investees will kick serious goals in 2024/25....drill programs, feasibility studies, more to production ready and beyond.
Sit tight!
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The
#uranium
propaganda on the horizon to avoid:
A) this stock is now a blue chip, held for all seasons
B) this sector is never going to return to a bear market
C) the only direction is a higher spot, above $150
D) this sector is no longer cyclical
E) contracting is irrelevant
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We have commenced accummulation of
#sput
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Thought of the year for our followers: Make sure you have > 25% dry powder for what is incoming over 2024, that will allow one to enjoy multiple cycle bottom 10-20 return opportunities through 2026.
#investingprudence
#cyclebottomsahead
#freshasymmetricthemes
#befearfulnow
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This
#uranium
upleg if supported by a $75 spot will deliver the following:
Top 5 explorers: 5-7x (Cap < US$20m)
Top 5 large caps: 1.0-1.5x
Top 5 pre-production plays 2-3x (Cap < US$200m)
Note if the spot achieved $95, then we can increase these ranges by 50% over 12 month
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While those with less conviction in the
#uranium
space are concerned about the 20% short term downside, those of us with conviction are looking for a long term price of > $80 to lay the cashflow foundations for debt financing of the capex in our < US$150m pre-production caps.
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Why are we overweight African
#uranium
miners:
A) on entry they were relatively great value
B) proven 24 month to production timeframes post $65 spot
C) lack of environmental or native land red tap
D) under owned
E) 40% will be takeover targets
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#lithium
watchlist to help you with your stock selection...
< O.4x CF coupled with < 4% of NPV and > 40% IRRs have been known to produce > 10x returns
#lithium
watchlist updated, will add European Metals Holding $EMH.
Post suggetions of additions in the comments.
$ALL $SYA $GLN $AZL $AGY $CRE $LIS $KOD $LKE $FL $GT1 $AMLI $LCE $LTH
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We are looking for our next < 10m near cycle bottom
#commodity
cap with > 1bn 2027 NPV to deploy 5-10m into? We are happy if you want to join us, any recommendations for targets? 🎯
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#sput
could be within 1% of NAV tomorrow, mojo restoration imminent?
#uranium
$200m raised within six weeks = 2.8mlbs of buying =>$60 spot
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Happy Easter to all those who celebrate. The message for our followers continues to be, a blow off top in commodities is playing out over the course of 2022, the best mechanism to secure ones compounding of returns is the harvesting of cyclicals moving into this peak.
1/2
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Lucky there are 10
#uranium
right companies, that will do 10x from here, none in the top 5 large caps.
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As the long term (3-5yr)
#uranium
price achieves $80 (likely when the spot is $100), our Pre-Production plays will be able to lock in $40-50 cashflow per lb in the medium term, allowing debt finance to take place. $AEE $FSY $LAM $EL8 =>3x
$DYL & $EU have 1x upside from here
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#uranium
is heading towards a huge peak average price year in 2024/25, those that get to production within 36 months will lock in some fabulous cashflow margins, perhaps even some < 18 months paybacks on capex. Our models tells us our Pre-Production plays are very undervalued.
"Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been"
--- Wayne Gretzky
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Diluted graphs tell the true story, pictures without dilution can misrepresent reality. $PDN is never going back to $10.
#uranium
The famous
#uranium
story regarding Paladin's run from 0.01 to 10 AUD is often shared, but it's important to note that from the start of that journey it went through countless 10-30% and several 40-50%+ corrections over the years. Nothing goes straight up, conviction is key. 🗝📊
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Time to weed the garden and get ones hands dirty with research across the spectrum of players.
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