Lebanon’s political leaders requested that the COVID vaccine arriving Sunday be given FIRST to them & their entourage. That’s dozens of people of all ages, when we barely have enough for healthcare workers. The World Bank rejected the request,which is an outrageous abuse of power
Our PM brings his nephew to all the high-level political meetings. Here he is at the UN General Assembly meetings in NY, meeting with the US Sec of State. Why is he there exactly? Corruption and nepotism. Your children pay to give a billionaire PM's nephew personal connections.
I rarely talk about my day job, but a project I've been working on for 5 yrs just won "Global Deal of the Year" for 2020. It's a $20+ bn gas project in Mozambique, the largest investment ever in Africa, all during a pandemic & only 3 yrs after Moz defaulted on its Eurobonds. 1/
I‘m not able to construct the right words to describe what I saw and heard in Gemmayze yesterday. We don’t move on from this. This system has to go, right now. It has to be uprooted by force. 1/
1/ The reason there's no meaningful Chinese/Russian investment in Lebanon is the same reason there's no meaningful US investment in Lebanon: There are no good large-scale investment opportunities here. No reforms, no stability, no growth, no good business environment, etc.
Let me tell you a story about MP Faysal Karami (Tripoli). He owns/runs the Islamic Hospital, a private hospital in Tripoli that doubles as a money laundering, fraud, clientelism/vote buying, public embezzlement operation.
بذكرى استشهاد الرئيس رشيد كرامي نستلهم صفات رجل الدولة التي نفتقدها اليوم فهو رجل الميثاق بما هو اعتراف متبادل ببعضنا البعض وواضح ان هذا النهج يكمله اليوم النائب فيصل كرامي
When the revolution started and then the NERDS gained some notoriety in Fall 2019, I truly believed that we could avoid the economic conditions we're living today, that we had a responsibility to make sure of it. I dedicated every single day to that mission.
Wow thanks for the love, friends. I despise shouting and this topic is too important and technical for a five minute shouting match. But I hope you gained something from the episode. We can’t afford to repeat the mistakes of the past. We have to learn and move on.
Can we do a Zoom call with every journalist, reporter, and TV interviewer in Lebanon to help them better understand the details of this crisis so they can challenge their guests from the Government, the Bank, and BDL better? All we are hearing is evasive answers from everyone.
Blubay Batroun hired thugs to *illegally* restrict public access to the beach using violence and intimidation.
I was walking on the beach, minding my business, when Blubay guards tried to block my path. They became violent when I refused to obey. More context in the thread below
Lebanon's new Energy Minister Walid Fayad was a defendant in a recent lawsuit by Booz Allen Hamilton.
Booz says he was fired for misusing/disclosing confidential info to a competitor & misappropriating company money in a scheme to make more money working for a competitor.
Couldn't find all my grandma's medicines in the pharmacy today. Those who obstructed the IMF process, blocked the political/econ reforms, politicized every process, incompetent politicians & bankers with big egos driven by self-interest & greed, are all to blame for what's coming
People like
@dgheim
represent everything good in our society. He helped me get thru these difficult few days. He picked me up the day of explosion, his dad got me stitched up. He’s been there the whole time. Seeing so many people help each other has been so incredibly touching.
A woman was murdered in broad daylight, carrying her baby. Her effing baby. What's her name? Who was she? What'll happen the baby? Not a single word from the political leaders. What moral compass is guiding them as the country falls apart around us? Do they have any compassion?
I participated in a meeting with BDL Governor Riad Salameh yesterday in which I had the opportunity to ask some of the questions that I have. Well, mainly one question, but an important one. Below is a summary of this Q&A.
It's time to abandon the LBP. Today, the only use of the LBP is as a vehicle to liquidate foreign currency deposits in banks and transfer the losses to depositors & the public. Everything else is dollarized, directly or indirectly. The LBP can't be salvaged as a currency anymore.
1/ A few days ago, I was invited to meet with key members of the Budget & Finance Sub-Committee to discuss the dispute that’s arisen over the numbers. We’ve met several times for many hours. I’ve been absent from Twitter because I’ve been working day and night to prepare.
الملفت في تصريحات سياسيين السلطة هو غياب أي نوع من التعاطف مع ضحايا جريمة المرفأ. الحداد الوطني بعد ما انتهى. في ناس بعدها مفقودة. تصوّر حالك أب أو أم ضحيّة و عم تسمع هاك تصريحات دفاعية و عنفية. هذا وقت تحمّل مسؤولية، وقت حزن، وقت محاسبة، وقت تغيير نظامي مشان هاك جريمي ما تنعاد.
Goldman Sachs makes millions of dollars from its reports on Lebanon, while we provide better analysis, faster, and in much more detail for free! I think we're doing it wrong.
A modest Christmas in Mina tonight. Merry Xmas from me & my grandma, thinking of the victims of Aug 4 & of everyone else to whom this country has brought so much needless suffering. Be good to each other.
“No one is useless in this world who lightens the burdens of another.”
1/Countries with poor governance systems often become poorer after making an oil or gas discovery.
Lebanon is making the exact same mistakes other countries who suffered from this "PRESOURCE" curse made before it.
The US is happily taking advantage of our ignorance.
[Thread]
Foreign direct investment in Lebanon will be “quick,” Special Presidential Coordinator
@amoshochstein
tells CNBC’s
@_hadleygamble
following the historic maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon
REUTERS: French prosecutors will charge Lebanon's central bank governor with fraud for faking account statements to conceal his wealth.
A reminder that international auditing firm BDO (its Lebanese partner BDO-Semaan) enabled this fraud by producing a report that was described
ZAMBO, an incredibly weird and amazing Al-Mina, Tripoli tradition — which nobody seems to know the origins of.
The day before Lent starts, we dress up in costumes and full body makeup, parade and dance around town Carnaval style, then jump into the sea.
More below.
Beirut Airport needs a fast track line ASAP or business travelers / people with foreign jobs that require travel won’t be able to live here.
Passport control/Amin 3am line starts from here today 👇🏽
The MEA employee told me you can bypass the line “if you know someone” 🤨 This
For Lebanon, a maritime boundary deal is better than none. But people need to understand what was agreed because it is being mischaracterized.
For example:
1. The parties did *not* resolve key economic issues related to hydrocarbon profit-sharing but deferred to a future date
The cost of living in Beirut with 24/7 electricity and decent water/food/internet/transport is more expensive than most parts of Europe.
Add to that knowing you're buying fuel that could otherwise go to hospitals, and it becomes a serious ethical dilemma just being here.
The government is NOT BANKRUPT. We have four million people with moderately functioning kidneys that can be sold for fresh cash to cover the losses. Enough fear-mongering! Governments don’t go bankrupt!
Financing of Iraq fuel deal: BDL prints LBP to pay Iraq market price for fuel —> Iraq spends the LBP in Lebanon —> Lebanese use that LBP to consume/restock inventory (ie, increase demand for $ from the black market). LBP depreciates more. Nothing is free. The public always pays.
Bummer. We will miss out on the benefits of the thorough and well-developed economic and financial recovery program the Hariri government and it’s team of internationally acclaimed economists was proposing. 🙁
The level of uncertainty Lebanese are facing is incredible. Food, fuel for cars & electricity, medicine, & other goods may skyrocket in price & become unavailable in the market b/c BDL is out of $ & no one has any idea what the authorities plan to do about it. Zero communication.
Minister
@MarieClaudeNajm
,
@Hassan_B_Diab
revealed that $5.7 bn were transferred out of the country recently. This is an opportunity to show that the Govt is serious about accountability. Start by sending the Swiss Min. of Justice an official request for mutual legal assistance.
Friends, I did my best and put my all into it. I hope I made you all proud. We’re all in this together, and we have to stay hopeful and keep working. I wasn’t up there as Mike Azar but as all of you.
Today was my 93-yr old Teita’s turn to get vaccinated at Tripoli Gov’t Hospital. The staff was professional and the process easy, though they ran out of vaccines and had to reschedule the morning appointments after ours. Help everyone you know register 👇🏽
Until you reform the public sector & governance system, restructure the Govt budget and debt, and restructure the banks/BDL, THERE’S NO RECOVERY, no viable infrastructure investment, no productive economy, no stable LBP. Tourism, ration cards, CC, more debt, nothing will work.
No self-respecting professional with any integrity would agree to be in a government with these people. Any “independent” who is considering a ministerial position should be shamed. You are only acting as a shield for the political parties, allowing them to escape responsibility.
The explosion took a lot out of me, and I don't feel the same drive that I used to. The violence, hatred, and constant stream of bs makes it hard to know what I'm fighting for anymore. I feel sorry for this country and the people in it. It doesn't have to be this way for us.
Thanks everyone for the support the last few days. But guys, we’re making too big a deal out of 5-6 random accounts with clear agendas and who contribute nothing. Don’t worry about me, I’ll be fine. I was raised in Tripoli.
"دراسات علمية". ما في اجراء اتخذ من مصرف لبنان او الحكومة او مجلس النواب كان مبني على دراسة علمية من قبل الازمة للان. لا قانون ال capital control لا وقت الشك بحجم الخسائر لا تحويل الودائع الى الليرة لا البطاقة التمويلية لا رفع الدعم الخ. ما في فريق عمل. ما في معلومات. ما في شي.
#كنعان ل #وهلق_شو: بديل ال ٣٩٠٠ سيتحدد بموجب الدراسات العلمية التي طلبناها من مصرف لبنان ورأي وزارة المال والحسم مفروض قبل نهاية أيلول موعد التعميم ١٥١ لايقاف مسلسل تبخّر الودائع
Since the first earthquake, the Lebanese Gov't hasn't held a single press conference or put any expert/authority on TV to explain to people what to do during a quake, how to prepare, and what to expect. People are terrified, confused, and have no idea how to stay safe.
Despite the critiques we'll have of this plan, truth is, it's really hard to imagine a previous cabinet preparing any kind of plan whatsoever. Hats off to the honest, hard-working individuals at the working-group level. I wonder how much of their work will actually be implemented
We shouldn't be asking these questions anymore. The LBP is at 10,000 because there is a deliberate attempt to push the losses onto the public via inflation rather than doing a proper public sector and financial sector restructuring.
Supply and Demand.
الرئيس عون تابع باهتمام بالغ ما تشهده بعض المناطق من تحركات احتجاجية على خلفية وصول سعر صرف الدولار إلى سقف 10000 ل.ل. وطالب الرئيس حاكم مصرف لبنان بمعرفة أسباب هذا الارتفاع سيما في الأيام الماضية وإطلاع اللبنانيين تأميناً للشفافية على نتائج التحقيق الذي تجريه هيئة التحقيق الخاصة
If you're worried a "black market" is being manipulated, then you open it up, make it transparent, and organize it. By pushing it even further underground, you only make it more likely to be manipulated, aside from many other negative effects. We need more transparency, not less.
مقررات الاجتماع الاقتصادي، المالي، الأمني والقضائي في بعبدا: تكليف الاجهزة الامنية ضبط جميع الاشخاص الذين يخالفون احكام قانون النقد والتسليف وقانون تنظيم مهنة الصرافة سواء كانوا من الصرافين المرخصين أوغير المرخصين الذين يمارسون المضاربة
1/ What's the difference between the calculations of the Govt and those of Parliament? The final draft of Parliament's calculations seems to be a State secret to which nobody has access, but I have seen an early draft. There is 1 main difference which I'll explain below.
The budget of the municipality of Tripoli (~32 bn LBP in 2018) is less than the budget for wages/benefits of Lebanon's 128 MPs (~49 bn LBP in 2020 budget).
Tripoli is Lebanon's second largest city with a population of more than 500,000. Beirut's budget is more than 10x that.
At 4 pm Beirut time today, the Lebanese Govt is having a call with Eurobond holders to explain the contents of the IMF deal and it’s plan to implement it while in caretaker status. Note that the Lebanese people don’t yet know any of this info. Sign up at the link below to listen.
The contracts w/ Alvarez & Marsal, KPMG, & Oliver Wyman for BDL audit were publicly released by Ministry of Finance, a victory for transparency that should be extended to every public contract. Thank you to all who called for these to be released.
الليرة تنهار اليوم لنفس الاسباب يلي الها سنتين عم تنهار. و الاسباب ليست الapplications و التلاعب. ارحمونا من هذه النظريات التافهة. لا خطة تعافي، لا اعادت هيكلة، لا مفاوضات مع صندوق النقد، لا رؤية، لا شيئ. و الخسائر تزداد يومياً و الاحتياطي ينزف. تعبنا.
A workshop should be held to brief incoming MPs on the econ/financial situation, why a financial & debt restructuring is needed and what it entails, the menu of solutions available, legislation to start planning for, the IMF deal, etc. Maybe there can be unity on this workstream.
How does a person live with themselves knowing they survived by luck when so many others didn’t?
I’m so sorry to the family and friends of all of those murdered and injured. There’s nothing else to say. 3/
If increasing the withdrawal rate to 8,000 won't have an impact on the LBP exchange rate and inflation, why didn't they increase it to 20,000 or 25,000?
A photo of European Jewish refugees at the Karantina refugee reception center in Beirut in 1939.
The photos are from a Lebanese Jewish magazine called L'Univers Israelite published in 1939, just as WW2 and the Nazi persecution of Jews was ramping up.
More in the thread below
So I'll be on
@Vision2030LBCI
on Monday 9:40 pm Beirut time. I can tell by the hilarious comments I'm reading here that there is a bit of excitement about the guest lineup? Much love, everyone. Will do my best.
بلبنان الفساد المالي أشكال... كرمال هيك التدقيق الجنائي او الـforensic audit شرط أساسي للمحاسبة والاصلاح.
مين عم يعرقل التدقيق وليش؟
"الفساد والحساب"... عنوان حلقة جديدة من برنامج #عشرين_30 مع ألبير كوستانيان الإثنين بتمام الساعة 9:40 مساءً عبر شاشة الـLBCI
@AlbertKostanian
Now would be a good time for opposition groups to form a shadow cabinet to show the Lebanese public what a competent government guided by public service and moral conviction would be doing. Assign a shadow PM and ministers and tell us what what you would be doing instead.
A reminder while we argue abt optimal terms for the WB loan: Lebanon wouldn't be begging for $250mn in aid if its political leadership hadn't brought it to total collapse & continues to do nothing about it. No working group, no plan, no accountability, no vision. Only paralysis.
Politicians are “surprised” an event that has been warned about daily for 2 years has happened.
Who is undermining the WB loan, the financial recovery plan, the IMF program? They were never going to do anything but force you to chose between bad options.
Can
@AlainBifani
finally tell us honestly who is obstructing the Kroll forensic audit of BDL and the public sector, and why? Honesty, courage, and remorse are important paths to redemption, Alain.
@AlbertKostanian
1/ Prices are rising rapidly & the LBP is depreciating daily because USD reserves are falling and LBP money supply is increasing. I'll explain why this is happening below. The consequences of delaying reforms/restructuring and delaying/impeding an IMF program can be catastrophic.
تعبنا من نفس الحديث. ما بيتثبت سعر الليرة دون طلب للليرة. يجب خلق سوق شفافة و حرّة للدولار لنشجّع حوالات من الخارج مش حل سطحي أو امني. يجب اجراء اصلاحات و بناء الثقة ليكون في طلب لليرة. بعد سلعاتا و تعيينات المحاصصة و غياب أي محاسبة لأحد و و و لا يمكن ترجع الثقة.
1/ It's interesting how much the the evolution of the French initiative can be explained using the basic game theory of conflict. Firstly, a common mistake made in analyzing Lebanese politics is that there is an organized system within which political negotiations take place.
I’m back in Beirut after a few weeks away. I used to escape the US to find some peace in Lebanon. Maybe I was naive at the time. But I realize now that all I need is a bike, a park, and some quiet to be happy and productive.
I have less patience for bullshit and for people generally now. I can’t imagine what someone who lost a relative or friend must feel. There’s a rage that just sits there and bubbles up every so often.
How is a person supposed to live with that knowing there won’t be any justice?
It’s incredible how much political accountability a floating exchange rate creates. Lira goes from 1500 to 3800, and now everyone’s getting audited (🤞🏽). Imagine if we had a floating rate the last 30 years. The peg was morphine that dulled the pain of a dysfunctional politics.
It was nice while it lasted...
A government that doesn't have the capability to run a simple 10-bus public transportation system, is that a government that can implement comprehensive economic, financial, and political reforms?
The chairman of Lebanon's Finance and Budget Committee in Parliament is wondering why the US Gov't is able to rescue a regional bank facing modest losses but a bankrupt Lebanese Gov't isn't able to rescue the entire financial system facing losses of 3x GDP as a result of the
1/ ANATOMY OF A FRAUDULANT CENTRAL BANK TRADE
The trades between Optimum Invest (OI) & Banque du Liban (BDL) are part of an elaborate accounting fraud and money laundering plot that OI facilitated. The Kroll report doesn't vindicate OI. A simple explanation of what happened:
Lebanon does not need a sovereign wealth fund today. In fact, it may be counterproductive and harmful.
We will be the first country in history to create a SWF before discovering a single molecule of oil and gas. We’ve devoted hundreds of MP-hours to this, rather than working to
1/ A good time to remind everyone that two years ago, MP Nicolas Nahhas led the campaign to convince everyone that the Diab Government's "numbers are wrong." He calculated his own figures which showed losses less than half of the Govts. How? By making a basic arithmetic mistake.
انا و غيري كنا عم نترجّاهم يرشدوا الدعم من شهر ٥ و من قبل. عملوا العكس. من اكبر مشاكلنا أن المسؤولين لا يتوقعون المشاكل أبداً بل يقفزون من أزمة لازمة بدلاً من حل المشاكل قبل اندلاع الأزمة. لماذا؟ لان ما في رؤية ولا استراتيجية. فقط إدارة الأزمات بالترئيع و تسجيل النقاط السياسية.
Merry Christmas from Mina, Tripoli!
The older I get, the more grateful I am for having belonged to a place that never ever changed. The neighbors were always the same, the old houses, the shops, the church, the sights & sounds. It was a constant in my life, changeless & enduring
The Banking Control Commission needs to respond to this accusation immediately.
@MarwanMikhael
this needs your attention right away. The public needs answers. It’s your duty
@AlainBifani
needs to provide evidence of this, what is the basis for this accusation?
@ChloeNCornish
The country needs more people like
@AlbertKostanian
. Thanks for all your hard work and for giving a platform to new voices. Albert invited me on his show several months ago, my very first time on TV. It changed everything. Then
@dgheim
,
@souhad_16
,
@MouhanedD
and the list goes on
انتهى هذا الموسم من #عشرين_30 واريد ان اشكر كل من تابعنا وشجعنا وحثنا على متابعة هذه التجربة الاعلامية التي نُريدها مستقلة وبناءة، آملاً ان تواكب ولادة لبنان جديد. على امل ان نلتقي بحلقات خاصة في الصيف وفي مواسم جديد
1/ Why can't Lebanon just pay Iraq for the fuel it sends to avoid this self-inflicted crisis? We can't afford it and never intended to pay. After 3 years, we now owe ~$2 bn, ~10% of GDP!
The issue came up in 2021. MPs told us to ignore it
So why can't we pay using govt funds?
Asked how Lebanon plans to pay for the Iraqi fuel and the unclear implications of non-payment, MP Yassine Jaber and Bilal Abdallah essentially say that we probably won’t be paying them. But it’s ok, because Iraq is fine with that. And nobody should ask any questions.
I heard a rumor days ago that MPs would be vaccinated in parliament. It seems this was planned days ago. They knew this was going to happen in violation of the prioritization rules, and would undermine the public trust and the financing. They did it anyway and nobody stopped them