Ayesha Tariq, CFA
@AyeshaTariq
Followers
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Mother | I analyze macro, markets & companies to find investments | There's always a story behind the numbers | Macro Research: https://t.co/HtO7BTxdvy šŖš§©
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Joined June 2009
The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is still one that I really like. Where are we now?
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The dude needs to put a shirt on and come back to run the company. $AMZN
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There will be books written about the greed and folly that's been created in the last few years. The 80s have nothing on us!
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Merrill Lynch's Investment Clock for the Global Economic Cycle . Old one but, fun one.
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Ouch! China's property stocks are back to 2008 lows.
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This is worse than I thought. The Hang Sang Index has reached 2008 Great Financial Crisis levels.
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Oh here we go again. JP Morganās game plan for tomorrowās US CPI.
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Every decent investor I know, is bearish about this market. Thatās because the data suggests that. Everything about the macro and the fundamental data is negative. And yet, the market continues to march higher in the short term. Jamie Dimon coming in to save First Republic is.
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Interesting chart from Apollo Global. I didn't realize the path was so similar.
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All eyes on Microsoft but, this is also one to take notice of: . Capital One $COF. Provision for credit losses $2.42B vs FS $1.88B.Net charge-offs $1.43B vs FS $1.32B. Credit cards are in trouble and companies are bracing for impact.
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Materials needed to build a 500MW Power Plant - Solar, Onshore Wind and Offshore Wind
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Adjusted EBITDA vs EBITDA . H/t: Vincent Gala, Schroders
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Unpopular opinion: Nvidiaās 70% margin is a cost for everyone else. $NVDA.
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This is shameful. Weāre all creators here. I put my article out for free to help people. Not for people to plagiarize it. I canāt stop that but, this guy was an ex-banker and now creator just like me. I wouldāve thought he would have the professional courtesy to give me a nod.
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Historically, we've had a major financial failure or a credit event towards the end of a Fed rate cycle. Something almost always breaks.
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Apple cuts Vision Pro sales target to 150K units vs previously discussed 1M units. An industry insider tells the Maeil that the initially discussed volume was 1M units, which was then reduced to 300K before being slashed to 150K this time. $AAPL.
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Morgan Stanley's target for the $SPX is now 3000 for 2023. š
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These are the companies that will lead us into a new bull market! š
š
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2022 is the worst year for 10Y US treasuries since 1788 š
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PE ratios for EM markets since 2003. This is such an interesting chart.
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Apparently, current inflation in the US is less than 3%. I don't live there. does it really feel like that?.
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Next week will be super volatile. We have 6 of the top 20 $SPX companies reporting. $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $JNJ $MA $V. and. we have the FOMC on Wednesday. Maybe best if we keep the market closed for the week.
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None of the macro data is remotely bullish. The Fed pausing rate hikes is not bullish. Oil above $80/bbl is not bullish. Hiding out in 8 stocks is also not bullish.
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Looks like this year might be one of those red outliers.
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US CPI Preview. Tomorrowās CPI data seems to be getting undue importance. The market is considering this CPI print to be the one that will put a dampener on the Fed cutting rates. I donāt think so. I think the market reacts to it, for sure, but I donāt think that this will
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European home prices have finally begun to react to the tightening cycle.
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Yikes. Capex is falling of a cliff. This makes way for a lower growth cycle for companies. We have earnings declining and a tighter credit environment that exacerbates this. This is not a tech and innovation discussion. If you look at the past, the tracker has remained in
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Container rates are now below pre-pandemic levels.
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Unrealized losses at US Banks now represent just over 30% of their equity capital. The BTFP expires in March. Should be interesting to see what's next.
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Never in the history of the US republic have US Treasury returns fallen 3 years in a row - BoFA. š
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Chinaā¦ treating the symptoms, not the cause. CHINA REDUCES TAX ON STOCK TRADING BY 50% TO BOOST MARKET. CHINA ORDERS STATE BANKS/FUNDS TO BUY STOCKS.
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A quick reminder. we're seeing the most aggressive rate hike cycle in a very. long time
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The narrative: if $SIVB collapses, the Fed will pivot. Ummā¦ no.
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A good chart from GS that shows how sectors & factors may react to change in 10Y bond yields.
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McDonald's says they expect a recession this year. Chipotle says they don't expect a recession this year. Who are you likely to believe? . $MCD $CMG.
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$MSFT double miss .EPS $2.20 vs $2.29 est.Revenue $52.7B vs. $52.9B est. Azure up +20%.Windows OEM -39% . Source: FactSet.
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Turkey raises benchmark rate to 15%, after a 6.5% rate hike.
Turkey: Rate hike estimates for June 22, 2023. Current rate = 8.5%. Goldman Sachs = 40%. BoFA = 25%. Deutsche Bank = 20%. Societe Generale = 15%. Standard Chartered = 14%. Consensus = 20%.
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The market wants to rally on the multitude of double beats but, weāre rallying to nowhere, as growth actually slows down and margins become less stable. Hereās 35 companies that have reported so far this quarter, all with QoQ EPS deceleration & the occasional Revenue deceleration
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U.S. rent prices climbed 8.8% year over year in February, the biggest rise in almost 42 years. - S&P Global.
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I wonder if people realize what a 100bps hike will do. Or even 75bps for that matter. People who have no idea how monetary policy works and affects bonds & stocks are just trying to be sensational. Letās see if Powell lives by āgo big or go homeā. š
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This is certainly not comforting. Bankruptcies in the UK are on the rise and hit a 10-year high.
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Great chart from MS. Forward EPS growth is now negative. Note the correlation with $SPX. H/t @astek81
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US earnings are still at a record high, well above their historical trend.
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CPI consensus for this weekās release is 6.5% YoY. Hereās JP Morganās game planā¦
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The Fed will not backstop the stock market. [This is my view].
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This is such an interesting chart from Morgan Stanley. Debt payments are now growing faster than discretionary income. This is not comforting in the slightest and just more proof that the consumer is not strong. We've been discussing this since June 2022.
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Forecast Scenarios for the $DXY US Dollar Index from Morgan Stanley
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41% of the Russell 2000 = unprofitable companies.$IWM. PC: JPM-AM
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JB Hunt $JBHT.First Quarter 2023 . Revenue: $3.23 billion; down 7%.Operating Income: $277.5 million; down 17%.EPS: $1.89 vs. $2.29; down 18%. The truckers are starting to feel the pressure. The economy is slowing down.
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The BoJ didnāt even last 2 days. Theyāre back to buying JGBs.
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M2 data for Mar 2023 is out. š. Change is -4.05% YoY. @Mayhem4Markets
M2 data for Feb 2023. Money supply change is now -2.35% YoY. January was -1.75% YoY.December was -1.04% YoY. @Mayhem4Markets
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Ouch. software valuations are now below the March 2020 trough
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Druckenmiller sees a hard landing. āHe defined a hard landing as unemployment exceeding 5%, corporate profits slumping at least 20% and rising bankruptcies.ā. - Bloomberg.
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BoFA Bull and Bear Indicator since 2002. We're still not at extreme bullishness.
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Inflation in Canada 3.3% -> 4% š±. The inflation story is not over.
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Please bookmark this! We might get a pool goingā¦ and see who got closest by the end of the year. š. S&P Year End Forecasts from the Institutions updated as of Jun 30, 2022 $SPX
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Where are we now? . I'd say in the middle of the slowdown.
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About 30% of the worldās oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran seizes Israel-linked ship near the Strait of Hormuz. This is not good. A block could cause +20% increase in oil prices pushing Brent Crude above $100/bbl. PC: BBG
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Balance Sheets for the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE have reduced -$3.1 trillion in the past 7 months.
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Equity Risk Premium is at 20 year lows at a time when earnings risk is at 20 year year highs - Morgan Stanley
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From the WSJā¦. Feels like the bear market rally is coming to an end. š
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Interesting developments from the Bank of Japan this morning. They've removed the fixed cap from the YCC band at +/-1% and termed it a "reference rate". They've also removed the need for the 10Y yield to float around the 0.5% mark. This is interesting because now there's no
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All I heard was. "tighter credit conditions". ā ļø.
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Brilliant chart from Bain, showing most private equity fund managers have never really seen a cycle of inflation like this. And guess what? . This applies to more than just the private equity fund managers.
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November saw the largest easing in US financial conditions of any single month in the past forty years!. PC: GS
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Blackstone is at it again. They fulfilled only 35% of redemption requests in Feb or $1.4B for the BREIT. And guess what? The requests were 26% lower than that for Jan. How long are they going to keep saying everything is just fine? . $BX.
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@MariusCrypt0 First of all, I donāt think thereās really any fundamental analysis to be done about crypto. Secondly, GDP growth is not strong. You need to look below the surface to realize that. Thirdly, itās only a matter of time before unemployment starts to rise with the levels of.
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Impact of a 1% rise or fall in interest rates. Blue = Fall.Grey = Rise. 30Y treasuries š
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Interest rates going up can be a benefit. it just depends on which side of the table you are on!
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There's a lot of conjecture floating around about the Fed's actions being QE, their balance sheet and the discount window borrowing. I did a write up with FAQs hoping to provide some clarity on this - FREE for all to read.
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China sold $53.3 billion of US treasuries & agency debt in Q1. We also know they bought a record amount of gold! . Sold treasuries to buy goldā¦.
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oh I like this chart. Very nicely presents the US Federal Fiscal situation.
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Ladies and Gentlemen, letās thank the Bank of England for our lovely bear market rally today. $SPX $NDX $DJI.
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$COIN. - Brian Armstrong sells shares. - Cathie Wood sells shares . - Receives Wells Notice. Whatās going on here? . Everyone: āNothing to see, letās resume buying this morning.āš¤·āāļø
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Forward EPS for global stocks are coming down. Weāre almost at pre-pandemic levels.
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The home affordability index is sinking like a stone.
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Japan took quite the tumble this morning with the Nikkei 225 down -2.60%. Inflation numbers came in this morning with core at 3.2% and core core inflation at 4.3%, both hotter than expected while headline numbers came in lower at 3.2%. After the shock in rate hikes yesterday,
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Iāll say it againā¦ . The Fed will not backstop the stock market.
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This morning from Bloombergā¦ .The bears are not retreating. $SPX
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Earnings estimates continue to remain too high for the S&P 500. We're looking at an impending earnings recession and estimates need to come down.
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