Archie
@ArchieIrving2
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Pinned Tweet
🧵 Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital explosion: after more footage has emerged, it is clear that the missile that both
@AlJazeera
and
@GeoConfirmed
have said is a Palestinian rocket is likely an Israeli Iron dome interceptor, here's why. 👇
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Per
@oryxspioenkop
, there has only been 67 Leopard-2's (of all sorts) confirmed as delivered to Ukraine. Apparently all 68 of them have been destroyed.
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People using my posts as proof of Oryx being inaccurate is quite ironic considering Oryx has removed every single duplicate that I find, and the amount I have found is less than 1% of the total counts (as they currently stand) after examining the entire list many times over.
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The day has come; there is a Bradley duplicate on
@oryxspioenkop
.
M2 Bradley
#20
destroyed (just added) is the same as
#15
destroyed from July 10.
There seem to have been at-least 6 different camera angles which were filming this loss. Crazy.
@Rebel44CZ
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@GeoConfirmed
You better be confident about this, because if you are wrong about it being the one which was intercepted, geoconfirmed will forever be tainted with such a massive mistake.
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🧵 Russian propaganda: an investigation of a successful Russian attempt to fake a new Ukrainian T-64BV Zr. 2017 capture from Kharkiv in 2022.
I have prepared as much evidence as I can into three sections: Context, proof of being the same loss, and discussion of intention. 1/x
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🧵 Ukrainian Photo-op: It appears that a Russian T-72A that was captured in March, 2022, was possibly used to fake an image of a Russian soldier surrendering.
On 20 March, 2022, an image of this capture was first uploaded + (now deleted) tiktok video:
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The FB post reports that a Russian soldier surrendered for a reward of $10k, which is presumably what the image is supposed to depict.
Based on timing and change of appearance of the tank, I suspect that the picture was faked. (it is also very convenient and high quality img)
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🧵 Open-source transparency: I have made a spreadsheet to track loss duplicates on
@oryxspioenkop
lists that are pointed out by the community.
It is very much-work in-progress, but duplicate numbers so far are:
🇷🇺 - 123
🇺🇦 - 101
Total - 224
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Haven't seen much discussion about whether the Patriot system may have been responsible for the recent Russian aircraft losses, so here is my take.
This looks to me like a possible use case for PAC-2 from well within Ukrainian territory using link16.🧵
Not sure what caused this but it is potentially quite significant. The Russian Air Force has been using longer-range glide bombs, which could pose a threat to Ukraine's counteroffensive. If Ukraine can now target aircraft farther past the FLOT, it could make a serious difference.
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Well, there's the final confirmation. Unless they had the guts to put a patriot radar close to the border (unlikely considering it would have popped up on Russian RWR's), this pretty much confirms that Ukrainian PAC-2 is acquiring targets across link16 datalink. Exciting stuff.
Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighterbomber reports that all helicopters and fighter jets downed on May 13 were shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system and 11 pilots died. That day Russia lost a Su-34, Su-35 & two Mi-8s in Russia's Bryansk region.
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1/ Ukranian BTR-80
#2
destroyed and Russian BTR-80
#3
destroyed appear to be the same loss.
It is Russian loss from the attack on Voznesensk in early march 2022 that saw a bunch of BTR-80 losses from the 126th Separate Coastal Defence Brigade.
@Rebel44CZ
@oryxspioenkop
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This was the first recorded loss of a Russian T-80UE-1, lost by the 4th Tank Division in Trostianets and documented on 26th February, 2022 (Oryx).
It is notable in that it seems to be the only known loss of the T-80U variants which have the "O" marking.
⚡️In Sumy Oblast of Ukraine, a resident had been keeping a fully operational Russian T-80 tank hidden for over a year before it was finally discovered.
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I am skeptical of this evaluation for a couple of reasons. First, is that pretty much all of the vehicles involved with the operation passed over this trench area. It would be the obvious place to go if you were retreating as it is one of two paths out. -
1) The Russian government released this photo of the alleged Belgorod insurgents vehicles after a battle. I used to be a tow truck operator. This is staged. These vehicles didn’t crash into that trench. I’ll explain why⬇️
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But, Patriot radar can't track targets that far, right? Yes, but that doesn't really matter. Patriot systems can receive targeting data through link16 datalink. This means you can put other radars closer to the border communicating over-the-horizon targets to PAC-2.
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Graph of equipment loss duplicates I have found by equipment type on Oryx list. 110 in total.
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🧵 Russian Propaganda: a Ukrainian Mastiff PPV which was captured by Russian forces in June, 2023, was recently displayed at an exhibition in Moscow, albeit in a *different* fashion.
This is one of the more crazy attempts to modify a captured loss that I have seen.👇 1/x
Russians presented captured Western equipment at the IMTF collection in Moscow, Russia. (More below)
It includes:
A CV9040C IFV
A AMX-10RC RT
A AT105A Saxon MRAP
A Mastiff PPV(with a disgusting camo I might add) MRAP
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It appears that Russian BTR-80
#32
destroyed, as documented in is actually a BTR-82A loss.
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
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Because of this, Russian pilots could have had no RWR warnings from the patriot system until the PAC-2 enters terminal phase. Russian systems would have certainly picked up the missiles on Radar, but wouldn't know it was targeting them until too late.
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What does this mean? Other radars on link16 can communicate with a patriot system, allowing interceptions well over the horizon, and at lower altitudes. This also allows aircraft on link16 to feed targeting to Patriot - maybe even allowing Su-27 and Mig-29 to take part.
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@squatsons
Remember where the goal posts were originally placed
Kyiv
Sumy
Kharkiv
Kherson
Having a fleet in the Black Sea
I also have a strong feeling that these goals will shift over the next year.
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Dear Ruskies,
Please don't change the Kontakt to fake losses. I know it might be tempting, but you will always be found out because you are not good at this.
And if you are going to fake a tank loss, change the track cover as well. It really can't be that hard.
Thanks.
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There isn't a lot of public info regarding PAC-2 datalink capabilities, but they certainly exist, demonstrated by IBCS flight test 5, where F-35 + TPS-59 radar communicated targeting data over link-16 to a Patriot system which intercepted using PAC-2.
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First and foremost, PAC-2 have a range of up to 160 km, which puts a lot of Ukrainian territory within PAC-2 range. There is enough distance from the border to put a patriot launcher without significantly increasing risk.
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So, any compatible Ukrainian/NATO Radar in track while scan that could pick up these targets would have been able to transmit targeting data to a PAC-2 without alerting the pilots to lock or missile launch. As a result, its possible that the pilots didn't defend before the max -
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AWACS, Rivet joint and supplied NASAMS, PATRIOT and HIMARS + more. Maybe I'm wrong, but MANPADS or S-300 seems just as if not more unlikely to me. Also, PAC-2 is more likely to kill all 4 sets of pilots than MANPADS, so🤷♂️. Will be interesting to see what is actually the case /End
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abort range. With knowledge of being fired upon, any pilot worth their while would be able to defend against a PAC-2 that far out - but without any defensive maneuvering, it would be almost impossible to survive PAC-2 after it enters its terminal phase.
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What I don't yet know is whether PAC-2 can communicate on link16 themselves, or if they require the Patriot system to upload link16 data. If it is the former (which I suspect), then a single patriot launcher theoretically can be used closer to the border, as to reduce risk.
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@sentdefender
Russia moving their tactical nukes inland out of fear that they might be captured by Ukrainian proxies was not on my bingo card this year sadly.
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that it is proof that Oryx is unreliable because "there are so many duplicates", this sheet is = ~2% of the lists. There is more to be discussed about what the remaining error rate may be, but the discovered errors fall well within what I think is reasonable given how massive - /
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There are a huge number of visible losses and surviving military equipment in Mariupol on google maps - I have been looking for just a little bit and have seen many losses where there is no apparent corresponding losses within the Mariupol location reference on war spotting.
With the google maps update in Mariupol, it has become very easy to geolocate some of the losses on
@warspotting
, so here are all the Russian losses I can find which currently are not given a geolocation. (Will continue to update when I find more).
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In that case, all you would require is the launcher and a communication/command system to receive and upload datalink to the launcher. The rest of the battery could be positioned deep in Ukraine, where command and radar systems are at little risk.
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@GHeckler67
Lol dude I am the one who found pretty much all of the duplicates that I post, which means I am the first person to provide any evidence about them being duplicates, so I am the first person "denying them". Most of them are not very easy to spot, usually takes hours.
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Either way, the reason I think this is more likely than MANPADS is this: MANPADS make sense for helicopters with a known flight path, but not less for fighters. Even with known flight path, an SOF team would have a small and unlikely window to launch, with low chance of success.
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Additionally, you might as well accept that you won't be getting that SOF team back. No amount of Russian incompetence should have you confident that an SOF team has a great chance of extracting from more than 50KM into Russian territory after taking out such high value targets.
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If this attack on Jabaliyah is from Israeli bombs (as massive craters suggest), this is a horrific war crime by the IDF.
It doesn't matter if there are Hamas militants around, you don't get to just level an entire neighborhood filled with civilians like this. Awful.
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This sort of operation puts you at massive risk of ending up seeing them end up as propaganda on Russian telegram, with low chance of success. Its a lot harder to run around in enemy territory carrying 4+ sets of MANPADS then it is to do so without.
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Since no one else has yet, here is a🧵for some of Israeli military build up around Gaza that is visible from Sentinel-2 Sattelite imagery.
Might be useful for anyone Geolocating media from the ground.
1/x
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Considering the extensive use of E-3 in Poland despite this fact, who knows how far it can see. There may be some doubts as to whether Ukrainian systems are actually using link16 - IMO, there has to be significant use of link16 by now as to integrate with NATO -
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🧵 Three Russian T-72 duplicates for today from the Oryx list and WarSpotting:
T-72B3
#2
abandoned and T-72B3 Obr. 2016
#10
captured appear to be the same loss.
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
@WarSpotting
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A doubt I have; if the Mi-8 were travelling at low altitude, the chance that any ground based radar in Ukraine was tracking them is effectively zero. E-3 AWACS has unclassified range of 400km detection, which would put it well out of range on Poland border.
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Ukrainian BTR-4
#12
destroyed and
#24
destroyed, as documented in , appear to be the same loss.
It seems that the loss was moved to the location seen in
#24
, turned around, and then moved again.
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
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@bentanmy
@oryxspioenkop
Only Russia is able to inflict negative equipment losses on their enemy.
... But I'm pretty sure at some point they just open up a random number generator and use it over and over until the number is high enough that they feel like they have done something.
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@Osinttechnical
The funny thing is that its probably not even the Ukrainian infomation op that is causing it - Prigozhin is seems to have caused this mess all by himself.
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@1charlieprince
Civilian deaths, while tragic, are not war-crimes if they are not excessive in proportion to the military necessity of the object in question.
In this case, the Kerch bridge has great military necessity, and the attack was carried out at a time with minimal civilian presence.
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Russian BMP-1P
#24
destroyed and Ukrainian BMP-1P
#14
destroyed appear to be the same Russian loss.
It is the result of a battle in Stepne, Volnovakha raion, where many other Russian losses occurred.
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
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What I hope
@Rebel44CZ
's loss update looks like today:
BREAKING:
Russia claims that Ukraine hit the Kremlin with a drone attack last night in what they say was an assassination attempt against Putin.
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@wartranslated
Well safe to say Putin sees this as a coup against himself instead of just the military.
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the lists are, and that media documenting losses very often begins in potato quality - it can take some time before better documentation allows duplicates to be discovered.
46 duplicates were wrong type.
42 duplicates were wrong condition.
8 duplicates were wrong side. /
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Because of the change in appearance, this loss received two Oryx entries -
#5
captured and
#13
captured.
It also recieved duplicate
@WarSpotting
entries:
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
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🧵 Here are 5 Russian BMP-3 duplicate losses from the
@oryxspioenkop
list and
@WarSpotting
:
@Rebel44CZ
#126
destroyed and
#152
destroyed appear to be the same loss.
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Map progress: Mariupol is almost finished.
Izium is getting a lot of work.
So far, I have found 5-6 BTG bases in Izium area. Establishing territory is difficult as there were few recorded losses during the march period. There seems to be a tank battle south of Kam'yanka.
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@CalibreObscura
I once again have my name and work thrown into the mix even though I vehemently believe that oryx is a reliable source.
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@hasanthehun
The solution is complicated, rather than the bare morality of the situation, which is obvious. Easy enough to see a genocide and know it is wrong (although difficult for most on X), hard to ensure that the solution which prevents one genocide does not in turn create another.
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Based on the facts I have presented, I believe that there is no way that anyone can claim (at this stage) that the Missile seen was launched from Gaza, and that the most likely explanation is a Iron dome launch from Nahal Oz. /
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What I do want you to take from this thread:
That claims (that I specifically point to) made by
@AlJazeera
and
@GeoConfirmed
are erroneous and should not be used for an accurate analysis of responsibility in this attack.
This matters, and their analysis was rushed. /
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Something crucial to the Iron dome incident that I didn't explore enough when I was laying everything out was where the mid-air detonation occurred.
Thanks to amazing work first by
@OAlexanderDK
and now
@AricToler
/
@nytimes
, there is a solid idea of where it happened. 1/3
We geolocated five videos that showed this projectile launch from the north, south, east and west. By drawing lines of perspective, three of which can be seen here, we assessed that this project was launched from near the Israeli city of Nahal Oz.
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@1charlieprince
Nothing does. I am not deciding based on moral whim, I am providing legal obligations under the Geneva convention as argument. Not every civilian death in Ukraine is a war crime either. But if you hit a civilian object that has no military function, its a war crime.
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Those in this space, especially volunteers who do not do this analysis for their own profiteering, have not been conscious of the effect of their mistakes - the reality is projects like
@GeoConfirmed
will have formed millions of opinions about this using erroneous claims.
/end
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Its been about an hour and I haven't received a response, so I feel I have no choice but to call this out as potential misinformation.
@GeoConfirmed
have stated that the missile seen in the video was "launched by Palestinian Groups", providing no evidence that is the case. 1/x
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First, lets show the claims:
@GeoConfirmed
thread which insists that the footage it adresses shows a rocket launched from Palestinian groups.
@AlJazeera
investigation that claims the rocket is launched from Gaza.
An Al Jazeera digital investigation found no grounds for the Israeli army's claim that the strike on the al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza was caused by a failed rocket launch.
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@Tendar
Nice to hear amidst everyone freaking out over the leopards and Bradleys. And as much as these new units training has been thrown into question, I think it's safe to say that they have performed opsec very well.
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Update 1: a couple things here - first, Nathan is not a source on Iron dome capabilities, and although making several seemingly plausible claims about it, many of them are wrong.
Second, no one here is a source, Israel did not share their classified material with you. Stop.
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With the google maps update in Mariupol, it has become very easy to geolocate some of the losses on
@warspotting
, so here are all the Russian losses I can find which currently are not given a geolocation. (Will continue to update when I find more).
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So, what can we say from this? Well, the missile seen in the video undoubtedly comes from the direction of Israel, and from the direction of a known Iron Dome site near Nahal Oz.
How does this fit in with the rest of the context? 👇
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So whats the new footage?
It is this clip shown by
@EekadFacts
, a new angle shows the missile seen in the
@Aljazeera
feed initially analysed by
@GeoConfirmed
, but is zoomed out during the entire trajectory, allowing us to learn more about the missile.
🔻A close examination of the incident video revealed that two distinct events occurred simultaneously. Israeli media exploited this situation to sow confusion and renounce their involvement in the crime.
🔻The first event involved a missile launch from within Israeli territory
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What I don't want you to take from this thread:
That there is certainty that it is an Iron dome interceptor: it seems more than likely, but without parts or verified data provided by the
@IDF
, we can not be 100% sure. /
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@GeoConfirmed
I think now would be a great time to remind people that there are 12 brigades that have been trained and armed for this offensive, and right now we have only seen equipment from 1-2 of those brigades.
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In the new video we see also a rocket coming from the right of the camera that is filming.
This, seems to be somewhat consistent with the direction that the
@IDF
's radar map of rocket launches shows (plotted as going roughly across the hospital in purple)
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I think most of you need to learn the lesson that just because there is a rocket volley coming overhead, you have no clue whether the missile that hits the hospital is:
- an Iron dome Tamir interceptor
- a Hamas/PIJ rocket
- Both
- Something else/coincidence.
/
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Leo losses are bad, but just for a sense of the proportionality:
You could fit every destroyed/captured Ukrainian Leo 2A4, 2A6, 2R, AMX-10 and CV9040C (visually confirmed on Oryx) in the Ropucha class ...
... and you will have only used 7-8 of the 10/12 vehicle capacity.
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Two previously unseen equipment losses in Severodonetsk:
Unknown vehicle wreck - left
48.8678493, 38.6012497
Unknown vehicle (perhaps a BMP?) - right
48.9344433, 38.5893217
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@BurfordBen
@oryxspioenkop
It's very hard to estimate what the real remaining error rate would be. I can only tell it is small because as I find more it becomes harder an harder. To do a full review, you could treat every loss as its own node and create an edge for every loss you can say it is not the -
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Here is 3 Russian T-80 duplicates to process:
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
@WarSpotting
T-80U
#6
captured and
#8
captured:
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@secretsqrl123
Don't know if you have caught on David, but there are two million civilians in Gaza that are running out of resources.
Unless you are happy to sit by and watch them die, you might see the value in providing some critical resources to prevent it.
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Now, moving out a bit, lets follow the trajectory of that line which shows the direction of the missile launch.
It launches from the direction of Nahal Oz.
It also clearly Aligns with an Iron dome site ~3km east of Nahal Oz.
31.458321, 34.520741
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Building on
@GeoConfirmed
contributors geolocations, here is a geolocation from the same or almost the same building seen in the initial video, also highlighting the direction of the missile as soon as possible after launch.
31.514043, 34.449939
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@Osinttechnical
Scrambling to replace an entire battery in the middle of a defensive effort sounds stressful. I hope Russian command does the thing where they lie about BDA's and then replenishment's are delayed.
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As an
#Australian
citizen, I want to say that arming
#Ukraine
is the single best use of taxpayer money for decades. My only criticism is that
#NewZealand
, which I am also a citizen of, isn't arming Ukraine. Ukraine is paying for political posturing with the lives of its people.
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...
🇮🇱⚔️🇵🇸 The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reported that they are striking tunnels along the border with Egypt to completely sever the connection between the Gaza Strip and the outside world.
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No, I am not making claims about the rocket that hit the hospital, I am making a claim about the ones seen in the sky. As far as my knowledge goes, it could be a air strike that hit the hospital coincidentally at the same time as this rocket fire, or a PIJ misfire. /
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As a note: It seems unlikely that the ERA and other changes could have been added after the supposed image of surrender, especially in regard to the changes too the barrel (looks like it might be blown out). /End
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Second reason is that there is dirt in the tread - contrary to the thread and the camera angle. It may not be as much as you would expect, but considering that all other vehicles passed through here and they have similar levels of dirt, it shouldn't surprise you.
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Just to confirm its plausibility, here is a geolocation that shows the direction of the missile from the ground view plotted to the supposed *approximate* trajectory of the rockets launched from Gaza.
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🧵Thread of duplicates from the
@oryxspioenkop
Russian list and
@warspotting
.
Todays duplicate discoveries include:
5x GAZ Tigr-M
1x KamAZ-63968 'Typhoon'
3x R-149MA1 command and staff vehicle
2x BMP-3
11 Total
@Rebel44CZ
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74
On March 22 (two days later), it was posted again after being modified in a few ways - ERA was removed, the turret was largely covered and the barrel paint was changed (among other things).
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I have been going through the Kozak timelines and it seems Russian sources really leaned into duplicating Kozak-2 losses.
On multiple ocasions, destroyed Kozak-2's have been reported as unique losses more than 3 times.
Perhaps a slow day on Russian Telegram. You really have to keep a sharp eye out for the BTR-4s ... they keep getting re-presented in different location. Still does not beat the Kozak-2 thats been destroyed five times now.
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Context: this Ukrainian T-64BV Zr. 2017 was initially captured and photographed somewhere in Kharkiv Oblast around the time of 12 April, 2022. These photos were uploaded to the razved_dozer telegram channel.
2/
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evolves, and that does mean loss of life at the end of the day.
Do rockets fire over Gaza? Yes, they do. To protect places like Nahal Oz, it is impossible for them not to on occasion.
Anyway, heres an example.
/
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You know if someone had actually funded oryx’s work maybe they would have been able to provide everything you ask for.
Anyway you can actually find all that stuff if you don’t do a surface level analysis such as this. Respect people who give up that much of their time for free.
As promised, here's my audit of Oryx's equipment loss tracking.
Oryx is well touted by institutional and mainstream media sources for an independent and open source verifiable low end accounting of equipment losses in the Ukraine War.
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@dillonrpayton
Really is a good haka, deservedly so for such a hero. It's a shame that he didn't get an NZDF haka as those are next level. cool to see people internationally appreciating the Haka as well.
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Conclusion: Russia captured a Ukrainian T-64BV Zr. 2017, and proceeded to modify it to make it appear as if it was 2 losses.
I had planned to post a list of all duplicate records yesterday but this case took up a lot of time, so I will post that later. Thanks. /end
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@VigorousFalcon
@oryxspioenkop
Ukraine claims they shoot down a jet = not added to list w/out evidence
Russia claims they shoot down a jet = not added to list w/out evidence
Ukrainian pilot obituary = evidence = added to list
Russian pilot obituary = evidence = added to list.
There is no inconsistency here.
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Still reading? Perhaps you are getting ready to tell me x or y and assume that what I am saying is laying blame in regard to the missile that hit the hospital.
Perhaps you are putting your rocket scientist hat on to tell me "iron dome doesn't fire over Gaza". Read more.👇
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sixth reason - its not even a kilometer from the border - well within artillery range and range of the Ukrainian drones which recorded them crossing there in the first place. If you are going to bring in a flatbed, you are risking death by drone or artillery -
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68
You may have noticed something concerning in that post; there is a claim that "When examining the trophy, a toolbox with Nazi symbols was also found. However, nothing new."
I believe that this becomes important for establishing the motive for this attempt. 4/
2
1
73
A Ukrainian T-80BV from
#3
&
#4
damaged & captured (rightmost) and
#8
captured, as documented in , appear to be the same loss from Mariupol.
@oryxspioenkop
@Rebel44CZ
4
1
71
Russian BTR-82A(M)
#129
damaged & captured (just added) and
#209
destroyed, as documented on
@oryxspioenkop
, appear to be the same loss.
It also has duplicate
@WarSpotting
entries:
@Rebel44CZ
3
0
71