Anton La Guardia
@AntonLaGuardia
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Diplomatic Editor at The Economist. RT≠endorsement.
Washington, DC
Joined March 2011
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Extraordinary if true.
@guardian
says Mossad chief menaced ICC prosecutor: “You should help us and let us take care of you. You don’t want to be getting into things that could compromise your security or that of your family.”
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"The Kremlin’s passive acceptance of Finnish accession has now further undermined Russian attempts to pose as victims of NATO aggression." In other words, the invasion of Ukraine was not about NATO but about crushing Ukraine as the "anti-Russia".
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@MaxBoot
is rapier-sharp in this column: “If Trump had been in charge during World War II, this column would be in German.”
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#Muslims
are controlling the weather in Britain. In some places it's Sunni, but mainly Shi'ite
#foxnewsfacts
http://t.co/sPHgVwdcHq
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A Western official paints a grim picture of Russia's progress in Ukraine: The commander of Russia's 37th Motor Rifle Brigade in Ukraine has been killed by his own troops - apparently run over by them - in a sign of falling morale.
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Hamas’s attack on Israel is being refracted very strangely through the lens of self-obsessed American politics. Some examples from the day 1/5
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The official estimates that 20 of Russia's roughly 100-120 Battalion Tactical Groups are "no longer combat effective".
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Huge sanctions move: US, EU, UK acting to block Russia's central bank from being able to sell reserves to protect rouble. "We are disarming fortress Russia," says senior official
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Ukraine def-min Reznikov responds to Indonesian plan for immediate ceasefire and DMZ: “It sounds like a Russian plan, not an Indonesia plan”
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For defence-industrial policy wonks. ASD Doug Bush on US monthly production of 155mm shells.
- Feb 2022: 14k
- today: 28k
- Q1 2024: 36k
- Q3 2024: 60k
- early 2025: 70k-80k
If Congress approves 155mm supplemental of $3.1bn (part of Biden’s $106bn request)
- late 2025: 100k
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🧵1/12
@jakesullivan
ahead of NATO summit:
- Allies have to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence
- Sweden membership bid “may not” be solved at summit
- China can be “constructive” in ending the Ukraine war
- Ukraine will have “pathway” towards NATO with “additional steps”
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Seems it might be a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile that landed in Poland. If confirmed, it would avert risk of escalation w/Russia, but adds to Ukraine's woes
So what crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland today?
With the cooperation of
@blueboy1969
we analyzed the available photos of fragments and came to a clear conclusion that they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one.
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Brexiteers have quaint view of free trade. The freest trade means regulatory harmonisation and supranational arbiter, ie, pooled sovereignty
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“It’s all because Biden released funds to release American detainees”.
▶️ Hamas’s operation was planned long before the exchange took place. And Israel itself pays a high price to secure the return of detainees 2/5
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“It’s all because of American weakness”
▶️ The US is not going to deploy troops to Israel. Hamas does not care about American strength. Hamas has launched attacks on Israel under presidents of all stripes 5/5
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Ukrainians have pushed some Russian units back from Kyiv. Several Russian units are in small pockets and vulnerable
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Despite Russia's losses, Putin is "all-in" to continue the war
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New BTGs being brought into the fight from Russia's far east and Kaliningrad, but they have not had much training.
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“This shows the madness of Sen. Tuverbille’s holds on senior military nominations.”
▶️ The blockage is absurd, but whether or not the US has a confirmed navy chief is irrelevant to Israel’s needs 3/5
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“Send Israel everything that shoots”.
▶️ Israel has lots of things that shoot. It may eventually need supplies of some items, like precision-guided munitions. But this is not 1973 — Israel is not going to be overrun by enemy armies 4/5
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Russian now seem to be focusing effort in the east - concentrating forces to try to cut off Ukraine's frontline troops in area known as Joint Forces Operation (JFO). But need to take control of Mariupol to release forces there
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A new hybrid species emerges: the coywolf
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Some BTGs are being brought back to Russia for repairs to equipment. Depleted units are being merged with remnants of others to form new BTGs
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“Putin’s forces will continue to terrorize the country to induce surrender. If they don’t succeed, they will burn it all down. It’s either bow or vanish; no third option is allowed.” Zelensky’s aide writing in
@nytimes
from a bunker
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Important.
@SecDef
has spoken to Russia's defence minister Sergey Shoigu. First time since February 18. Pentagon says Austin "urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine". Also "emphasised the importance of maintaining lines of communication".
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In Berlin,
@SecBlinken
will be seeking to stiffen the resolve of allies, especially
#Germany
. The message: you agreed to NATO, G7, EU and other statements threatening "massive" sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine. This is no time to go wobbly
@OlafScholz
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BBC projecting that LibDems are second party in European election after Brexit party. How v strange that BBC has not put on a LibDem representative on the programme.
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On day that Ukraine contact group debates how to get more weapons to Ukraine, especially air-defence systems, latest figures from
@kielinstitute
show who is really helping it fight Russian's invasion. 1/2
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How many NATO leaders have come out to denounce the coup in Turkey? Silence is eloquent
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@kajakallas
offers a grim summing-up of NATO's current "deterrence by punishment" posture: Tallinn would be flattened. 1/3
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24 hours that shook the Kremlin.
@meduza_en
account of the negotiations the ended Wagner’s 1,000km charge to Moscow. Putin was “nowhere to be found”, but Lukashenko helped put an end to the rebellion
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The new game of global power in
#Syria
and
#SouthChinaSea
http://t.co/j5KeDQ6lxO
http://t.co/ydP79tILpu
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America is committing more military and economic aid than than anybody, and more than European countries combined. As share of GDP, countries straining hardest are Poland and Baltics - esp if you add cost of refugees. Big European states, inc UK, could do a lot more 2/2
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Europe is the only continent whose population will shrink by 2050. It must think of the impact
http://t.co/JHd33CctNr
http://t.co/NwSVHXtCfh
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Britain reaps outsize benefits from the EU’s free movement
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Ukraine is about to gain the means to deliver a big armoured punch, even without the contentious Leopards. My piece looks at what it might do with it, and the rising stakes for the next fighting season. 1/4
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UN General Assembly votes overwhelmingly to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories. 143 votes to 5, with 35 abstentions. Bigger majority than in March. Only Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua and Syria voted with Russia. China & India abstained
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Boko Haram is the deadliest terrorist group since 2010—IS is a close second
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A young Saudi prince on a hurry. We talk to Muhammad bin Salman about Iran, wars, oil and his big reform plans
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After a day of many twists and furious re-drafts, here is our take on Prigozhin's strange march and retreat from Moscow
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Israelis quip that Moses led them for 40 years in the wilderness to find the one place without oil. That may change
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Intriguing post on how Russia might be able to move smaller military vessels through internal waterways
***NEW ANALYSIS***
Here ->
The
#Russian
Navy's way around Turkey closing the Bosporus to its warships, literally.
I have been meaning to write about Russia moving submarines via internal waterways for some time, now it seems particularly relevant.
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On the day
@SecDef
makes historic first visit to Papua New Guinea by an American Defence Secretary—probably the most senior US defence official since Douglas McArthur—this is the sign that greets him in Port Moresby.
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Populism shifted Britain away from the EU and closer to NATO. With Le Pen it would move France away from both. She says NATO is "submission to an American protectorate exercised on European soil”. She would seek rapprochement with
#Russia
. Her election would make Putin's day
Le Pen, the far-right candidate for French president, says France will quit NATO’s integrated military command if she is elected and will seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
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Beware of lumping Renziferendum defeat with Brexit and Trump as display of "populism". Renzi's constitutional change was deeply flawed
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Lessons of the Cuban missile crisis for the war in Ukraine. My piece with
@shashj
on the rising danger of nuclear escalation.
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The tactic of imposing sanctions on individual West Bank settlers is spreading
France bans 28 Israeli settlers over West Bank violence
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RT
@Le_Figaro
:
#JeSuisCharlie
Le coup de crayon hommage du dessinateur
@ixene_dessin
sur l'attaque de
#CharlieHebdo
.
http://t.co/6fuVdAQC24
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6/12
On defence spending in NATO
- Process of reaching 2% of GDP is “incomplete” but “the direction of travel” is positive
- NATO will not set new spending target, but “we are going to have to go beyond 2% to meet all of the security needs in the alliance”
[NATO latest numbers]
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Nearly 80 years after America dropped the atom bomb on Hiroshima,
@SecBlinken
and
@SecDef
are in Tokyo to re-affirm America’s promise to defend Japan with all our capabilities, including nuclear capabilities”. 1/3
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Shades of Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt as Russia, Britain and America unite against IS
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One-fifth of Nobel laureates were migrants, mostly to America
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What if Italy became the most stable country in Europe? Don’t laugh
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8/12
On cluster munitions:
- Decision to give them driven by lack of artillery
- They're needed as “bridge” between today and future rise in production. When there are enough munitions “then we will go back to unitary rounds”
[see
@shashj
's piece]
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Headline writers beware. Definition of “little-known” is not “the Grey Lady has just got to the story”. The co-ordination centre has been reported on and filmed for weeks and months….
The International Donor Coordination Center, located at US European Command headquarters, has moved more than 78,000 tons of arms, munitions and equipment worth more than $10 billion in nearly 5 months.
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Interestingly, the call for a ceasefire in
#Ukraine
is not being repeated by the State Department. An official says: “Putin started this war, and he could end it whenever he wants [...] Russia has shown no signs that it is are willing to seriously engage in negotiations....1/2
Senior US defence official says
@SecDef
's call for ceasefire is in "alignment" with similar calls by European leaders, but insists there is "no change in administration policy". 1/2
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RT
@Beltrew
: A few of the best cartoons drawn & shared in solidarity with
#CharlieHebdo
after yesterday's massacre
http://t.co/4Dq68GL9mT
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US officials considering option to help Ukrainians fight a Russia occupation, but have not had green light from
@POTUS
, CNN reports
Some members of the administration, however, are wary of getting bogged down in an anti-occupation support effort and have argued that US forces should leave if a war erupts.
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What is Russia’s mysterious new space weapon? A nuclear weapon in space, or a nuclear-powered weapon, eg a jammer, in space?
@shashj
and I look at the possibilities
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7/12
On Ukraine war:
- “The story of the counter-offensive is yet to be written”. Ukraine “has yet to commit a substantial portion of its force”
- US has promised “to provide them with the ammunition they need” to give them a “wider window” to succeed
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A coup is not the answer to Erdogan's authoritarianism. Sadly, the coup's likely failure could turn him into even more of an autocrat
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It was US invasion of Iraq in 2003 -not the 2015 nuclear deal —that allowed Iran to expand influence Middle East
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9/12
On nuclear weapons:
Dismisses two “caricatures” of the nuclear dimension. 1) that America is paralysed by fear of escalation
2) that there is no nuclear threat. “It’s a real threat. It’s one we need to take seriously” though it changes with “conditions on the battlefield”
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Finland's PM offers his home to refugees, urges others to look at themselves in mirror
http://t.co/TXd6gQNS8F
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12/12
On China:
- Xi Jinping has been “repeatedly surprised” by Putin
- China has an “interest” in ending the war. “From our perspective China could be constructive in actually stepping forward, standing up for the basic principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
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1/ Israel "has basically agreed" to 6-week halt in Gaza fighting in exchange for the release of sick, elderly and female hostages, says senior administration official. "The ball is in Hamas's court"
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The question gripping America after Tillerson leak: "Is Donald Trump a moron?" Duh, says
@MaxBoot
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2/12
- Allies will begin talks to negotiate Israel-style long-term “security commitments”
- Danger of nuclear escalation doesn't “paralyse” US, but threat “is real”
- Putin has been weakened by rebellion
- Prigozhin is “at liberty”, location unknown
Details below
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From
@MaxBoot
, a lifelong Republican: America's security might now depend on electing a Democratic Congress in 2018
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As Chinese missiles bracket Taiwan today, this piece on the lessons Taiwan should draw from the war in Ukraine is relevant. As an island, Taiwan will be harder to invade than Ukraine, but also harder for its friends to support
1
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The new shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. My piece with
@glcarlstrom
@AnshelPfeffer
and
@BrowneGareth
on the modest but growing chance of turning catastrophe into opportunity for peace 🧵 1/5
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White House spox says Iran & Russia creating "a full-fledged defence partnership". Planning joint production of drones. IR "considering" supplying ballistic missiles. US "concerned" RU intends to provide advanced kit, incl. helicopters, air-defence missiles and SU-35 fighters
8
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Macron is wrong. G7 is not G6+1; it’s G5+2
BREAKING. This is huge.
#Italy
PM Conte agrees with
@realDonaldTrump
: “Russia should be allowed back in
#G7
. It is in everyone’s interest”
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The ruining of Egypt: Repression and the incompetence are stoking the next youth uprising
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America’s wars “with no off button”, as seen by six of the two million Americans who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan. My review of “The Fighters” by
@cjchivers
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Dawn breaks over London on the day England has voted against its thriving capital
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Guam, where America’s next war may begin. A place caught between hedonism and war jitters. My piece on the strategic island’s flimsy air defences, and what the Pentagon is belatedly doing about it.
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Macron looks like he is about to create a powerful "radical centre"
OK, now this would be a total landslide. New
@ipsos
poll forecasting massive French parliamentary majority for Macron (289 seats needed)
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3/12
On Ukraine and NATO:
- Allies will discuss “Ukraine’s pathway towards NATO membership”. It will need to take “additional steps with respect to reforms and interoperability” but it’s “in a positive direction of travel”.
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4/12
- Allies will “negotiate specific security commitments relative to the long-term provision of military assistance, intelligence, and other forms of material support to ensure that Ukraine has the capacity to defend itself”.
[my earlier piece]
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A new Arab history is being written in blood. The Arab world—SPECIAL REPORT
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EU’s foreign-policy chief Borrell blasts China “siding with the aggressor” in Ukraine. Warns “it’s position on Russian war crimes will determine the quality of our relationship with Beijing”. Sounded like a warning to Europeans trekking to China: von der Leyden, Sanchez, Macron…
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Small reefs, big problems: the game over China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea
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As dawn breaks on a new Britain croissants - sorry, crescent-shaped pastries - have arrived at The Economist
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Air travel in Africa is needlessly hard and costly. Open skies would make it cheaper
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Thoughts on Ukraine after briefing from
@DOD_Policy
: Arms supplied by latest $3bn US aid package may take up to 3 years to arrive. Not much help now, but US says it's in for a long war. There are limits: new aircraft "under discussion". No ATACMS (300km-range missiles). 🧵 1/7
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In this piece with my colleague,
@shashj
, we look at the nuclear scenarios and possible responses, as well as lessons from the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago
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10/12
On Sweden’s blocked membership bid
- Hungary “will not be the last” to ratify accession
- “Confident” Turkey will agree soon. “I don’t know that it will get done next week. It may not. But I do not think this is going to hang out there indefinitely.”
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Our editorial on Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade: "a dangerous step towards oppression"
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To beat the scourge of heroin, governments should deal the drug themselves
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The trouble with this model is that a) if a war has started, such high readiness forces might not be able to get in and b) if the war has not started, the act of deploying reinforcements forward may be deemed escalatory. 3/3
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@EmmanuelMacron
goes on: "Let us not muddle up cause and effect. Who here can defend the idea that the invasion of Ukraine justifies no sanction? [...] Contemporary imperialism is not Western [...]. Who's playing at hegemony today? It is Russia."
@EmmanuelMacron
turns into a hawk on
#Ukraine
. Chastising the many fence-sitters at
#UNGA
, he says: "There is one certain thing. Now, there are Russian troops in Ukraine. And as far as I know, there are no Ukrainian troops in Russia. That is a statement of fact."
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Salzburg debacle shows it’s near impossible to have
#Brexit
with three unions: sovereignty of UK; economic unity of island of Ireland; and integrity of supranational EU single market incl “four freedoms”. Only Norway option reconcile the three; anything else will break something
7
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How the war in
#Ukraine
is changing geopolitics. Democracy v autocracy; Europe sheds its pacifist robes; Russia cleaves to China; nuclear escalation; and whether America can stitch together its alliances on the Eurasian "Rimland"
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5/12
- Allies will do so bilaterally, but accords will be “embedded in a larger multilateral framework”
- It will not be “just a piece of paper”; Biden administration will work with Congress to “get the resources to put behind the commitments”
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