Andy Mok, Beijing-based geopolitical commentator
@andymok
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Think tanker/📺 commentator covering geopolitics and tech from 🇨🇳. ex-PE/VC investor 💰. 15+ years on the ground in Beijing.
Beijing, China
Joined January 2008
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In this
@whartonmagazine
article I argue that values from ancient civilizations like China and India's can help us seize opportunities for technological and financial innovation today
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1/ What's really behind conflict in Ukraine - a thread
The U.S. is engaging Russia in three wars. Let me discuss them in increasing order of importance and the likely repercussions on the U.S.-led global order.
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One of the better cartoons I’ve seen recently
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21/ In summary, it is not at all clear Russia is losing these three wars. In fact, there are signs this latest US-instigated conflict may be another strategic defeat like Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. But Ukrainian conflict may be one with far longer lasting damage to US.
End
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Just saw this cartoon showing China and Russia squaring off against the hydra of the West.
The tension between these global powers is palpable and the art style really captures the intensity of the situation.
Can they chop off all those heads?
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17/ Russia's demand for payment in rubles for its energy may only be the beginning of the flight away from the dollar. The loss of dollar hegemony will be both catastrophic for the U.S. and a cause for celebration in much of the rest of the world.
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16/ that not only is the U.S. an unreliable political actor that can engage in 180-degree policy shifts driven by the four-year presidential election cycle but that its stewardship of the global financial system is not only suspect but now demonstrably untrustworthy.
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4/ The only reason an extended military conflict in Ukraine is possible is because it has been instigated and perpetuated by the United States. Without the endless and growing torrent of weapons and other supplies,
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3/ Finally, and most significantly, there is the economic war which may accelerate the destruction of the US-led power structure that has dominated the world since the end of World War II.
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12/ These countries include not only China but India, Iran and several other geopolitically significant nations. Indeed, from the nations of OPEC to South Asia, Africa and even Latin America, Russia has many more friends than Western media is letting on.
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14/ However, they are not working as intended and have set forces in motion that may accelerate the destruction of American primacy in the global order.
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9/ However, neither is true. Regarding the first line of attack, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger and John Mearsheimer have all warned against crossing Russian redlines in Ukraine.
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2/ The first is the military war taking place on the ground in Ukraine. Then there is the propaganda war taking place at Western media outlets like CNN and on social media platforms like Twitter.
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6/ Instead, there is widespread destruction, loss of life and growing refugee crisis that are directly and inescapably caused by U.S. intervention. But as tragic as this is, the military war is the least significant from a geopolitical perspective.
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15/ As such, it brings to mind something then-U.S. President Barack Obama is alleged to have said about Joe Biden, "Never underestimate Joe's ability to eff things up." Specifically, freezing Russian central bank assets have shown the world
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19/ And this may be the seismic fault line that shatters unity of U.S.-led coalition against Russia in irrevocable ways.
Specifically, Germany may publicly debate whether its economic fortunes are better aligned with Russia rather than under the boot of American "leadership."
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5/ such as Stingers, Javelin missiles, Switchblade drones and the years-long surreptitious military training and likely intelligence support provided by the U.S. and its enablers in Europe, even an abbreviated military conflict in Ukraine would be unlikely.
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8/ The first attack claims Russia's military operation in Ukraine is an unprovoked attack that is failing. The second attack vector is that U.S. and its Western European enablers are indivisibly allied against Russia, and world stands with these so-called defenders of freedom.
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7/ Concurrent with the military war is the propaganda war. Led by CNN and other corporate media stenographers for the U.S. government, there are two angles of attack.
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18/ Europe imported 5.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from Russia in 2021. Disruption of these supplies and even significant prices increases will be disastrous for Europe, especially as the year progresses and cold weather returns.
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11/ Regarding the second vector of attack, what is ignored or downplayed are the number of countries that do not support U.S.-led sanctions against Russia.
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1/4 US frustration with India will continue to grow. Here’s why:
Like China and Russia, India sees itself as a civilization, not a nation-state.
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20/ Again, the U.S.-led sanctions have unleashed forces that may ultimately undermine U.S. interests far more than its instigation of the conflict in Ukraine was intended to solve.
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13/ And this leads me to the third war, the economic one, which I believe will be most significant. The sanctions imposed on Russia are unprecedented and are meant to shock and awe the country's President Vladimir Putin into submission.
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10/ But these warnings have been either inadvertently or deliberately ignored. Also, some military analysts have compared the Russian action favorably with the Nazi blitzkrieg, which is hailed as an example of a rapid and successful military offensive.
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Award-winning Chinese mathematician Sun Xin returns from US to work at Peking University
At least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their affiliation in 2021 from American to Chinese institutions, according to a joint report by academics from Harvard and
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American propaganda.
It really does work.
Unfortunately.
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It’s becoming increasingly unsafe for Asians in the United States
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Dinner at Sichuan Government rep office restaurant in Beijing. Reputed to have best Sichuan food in city. All this plus beer (and no tip!) for less than $40
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Wang Yi in reply to
@SecBlinken
urgent call asking for China’s help w/Afghanistan: “The US cannot on one hand actively seek to contain and suppress China and harm China's legitimate rights and interests, and on the other hand hope for China's cooperation.”
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Australian Secret Intelligence Service opened base in Santiago to assist Central Intelligence Agency’s destabilisation of Chilean government ahead of bloody military coup against Salvador Allende’s socialist government 48 years ago today.
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One must remember that in the US lost lives aren’t considered a cost
Headline written like 600,000+ Americans haven't died
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In Feb 2019 I wrote that in threatening
@huawei
US thought it was waving big stick of dynamite but in reality just a limp wet firecracker. Rest of world turned out to be much more clear-eyed and sensible than US believed
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With elected officials like this, is it any wonder that US is in trouble?
China has a 5,000 year history of cheating and stealing. Some things will never change...
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“Chinese tech execs say they prefer not to hire Chinese graduates with bachelor’s degree from an American university. 🇨🇳 programs more rigorous and Chinese students who go overseas probably children of well-to-do families who didn’t score well on 🇨🇳university entrance exam”
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For the first time in history, South Korea and China have decided to sign an MOU to reinforce collaboration in supply chain network and set up Collaborative Supply Chain Council.
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@TheEconomist
@zannymb
Is this comparison between pigs and the people of China a lapse in editorial judgment? If so, is an acknowledgment of such in order?
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South Korea President Caught on Hot Mic Insulting US Congress
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A shocking report by
@nytimes
reveals how South Korea’s government enabled and encouraged the sexual abuse of hundreds of women by US soldiers in camp towns near military bases. These women, known as “comfort women”, are now seeking justice in US courts.
“We were just like
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Not only do most people in rural China own their own homes the cost of maintaining home is almost zero (no property taxes, debt service, insurance, etc).
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that some western journalists are confused by even the most basic financial calculations?
So, the updated number is $220 per month. But isn’t that extreme poverty?
No, here’s why.
In rural China, the people don’t have to worry about the biggest expense: Housing!
Yup, almost everyone has a land and a home!
Home ownership rate is whopping 96%
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Disappointed to see such a flagrantly biased piece from
@nytimes
that distorts the global debt crisis by fixating on China's reluctance to cancel debts, while ignoring the actual instigator: the U.S's sharp interest rate hikes. The real story here is Yellen cravenly attempting to
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China’s PPP GDP is only 25% larger than that of the US? Come on people… who are we kidding? Last year, China generated twice as much electricity as the US, produced 12.6 times as much steel and 22 times as much cement. China’s shipyards accounted for over 50% of the world’s
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Just as Jewish scientists fled persecution in Germany to power US tech dominance:
An increasing number of scientists and engineers of Chinese descent are giving up tenured positions at top-tier American universities to leave for China or elsewhere
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“More people in Hong Kong see the United States—rather than mainland China—as a threat to the semi-autonomous territory”
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Alarm bells in the auto industry: A revealing journey through China's advanced EV sector signals a seismic shift in global market dynamics.
Via
@FT
when Takero Kato, the head of the Toyota division tasked with building electric vehicles, travelled through China in 2018 he was
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The dollar has lost almost half of its purchasing power since 2000
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@alessabocchi
The Chinese are some of the most creative in the world largely because of the rigorous discipline and high standards in education.
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Is the world losing confidence in US?
Ehud Olmert, former Israeli PM, “When I hear the Americans talking about their fear of China, I too begin to worry that the US’s strength is actually much weaker than we thought it was...”
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Metaphor for China-US relations: A snake was slightly injured sliding over a saw. Furious, it bit saw and hurt its mouth.
Then, w/o understanding what was happening and feeling attacked, it tried to suffocate saw, squeezing it with all its strength and ended up killing itself
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Western policy makers and pundits predicted a crushing of the ruble. Not exactly turning out that way...
RUBLE HAS CONSISTENTLY GAINED VS THE DOLLAR THE PAST MONTH
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Thai Prime Minister shrugs off request from 25 ambassadors to condemn Russia
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Yuan exceeds dollar in China’s bilateral trade for first time
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4/4 Vladimir Putin’s popularity across the Indian public is widespread, a reflection of how much Indian domestic opinion has changed.
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@jacksonhinklle
Mainstream media reports the truth only after exhausting all other options 😂
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Shanghai is a ghost town - 1:30 am at Pudong airport
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Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, stunned reporters in Davos when he expressed that the oil-rich nation was open to trading in currencies beside the U.S. dollar for the first time in 48 years.
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Save the date!
@Jerry_grey2002
and I will share experience and advice on living and working in China
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China’s government has achieved one of the greatest human rights triumphs of all time by lifting so many people out of poverty
China's transformation over the past 40 years is awe-inspiring. Massive economic development has brought 850million people out of poverty in only four decades - a great, historic contribution to the liberation of humanity. The scale of this achievement isn't grasped in the West.
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2/4 Seeking flexibility and strategic autonomy is therefore linked not only to India’s assessment of own geography but also to a world view that aims for a global order absent a hegemonic power where India is properly recognized as a nuclear power w/its own sphere of influence.
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Morris Chang, TSMC founder, on difference between US and Asia: “If it breaks down at 1 in the morning, in the U.S. it will be fixed in the next morning, but in Taiwan, it will be fixed at 2 a.m.”
“If an engineer [in Taiwan] gets a call when he is asleep, he will wake up and
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@Megatron_ron
This has strong echoes of the Tet Offensive which was initiated during the Tet holiday and saw the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong clandestinely infiltrate cities and towns across South Vietnam, catching U.S. and South Vietnamese forces unprepared. This unexpected large-scale
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@DSORennie
If President Xi offered you safe and clean housing as well as economic security, would you hang his portrait in your living room?
Absolutely
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Hell, no
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Wtf?
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This is the unfortunate reality of life in the United States
Asian elder gets brutally attacked as a witness trying to help gets pistol whipped in Oakland Chinatown today!
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Not sure why dollar hegemony is so important? Check out this thread to find out why
The foundation of American hegemony might appear to rest on its military. But, in fact, the true source of American power is based on its currency: The U.S. dollar.
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Russia, the world’s biggest country by landmass became the world’s top wheat exporter, passing the US and Canada for the first time in 2017. “We are number one,” Putin declared in a later press conference. “We beat the US and Canada.”
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A recent survey by the Pew Research Center finds China tops the 2019 global rankings in terms of the levels of satisfaction with government performance, with over 86 percent of Chinese surveyed expressing satisfaction, far above the global average of 47 percent.
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Here's a piece I wrote that was just published by
@CGTNOfficial
on why US may suffer strategic defeat in its economic war against Russia. This will, of course, have profound implications for investment outlook and strategies
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Taliban sending cricket team to Australia
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Jimmy Carter: Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody? None. And we have stayed at war. 1/2
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@RWApodcast
A major embarrassment for US, which may be on track for a strategic defeat as I wrote last month
1/ What's really behind conflict in Ukraine - a thread
The U.S. is engaging Russia in three wars. Let me discuss them in increasing order of importance and the likely repercussions on the U.S.-led global order.
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Many who were neutral on the issue of Palestine clearly becoming anti-Israel
I used to be neutral on Israel/Palestine, saying that is it none of my business and I wouldn't want to see Israel wiped out, but after seeing the Israelis piss on corpses; laugh at dead babies in Telegram chats; mock Palestinians for not having food, water, fuel, and electricty
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3/4 Recent fieldwork in the BJP-ruled state of Uttar Pradesh showed that classrooms in schools teach the demerits of democracy, emphasizing how single-party states are more stable and can advance more quickly.
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“Polls released this week by Russia’s most respected independent pollster, Levada, showed Putin’s approval rating hitting 83%, up from 69% in January. 81% said they supported war, describing need to protect Russian speakers as its primary justification.”
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@BesserSicher
Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa aren’t communist. This is more about Global South challenging American hegemony
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Australia’s reward for antagonizing China: upsurge in US beef sales
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Difference between China and the US?
In the US, freedom means leaving people to struggle for individual solutions to country’s structural problems.
In China, government takes responsibility for delivering a better life for all of its people.
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Not an exaggeration to say US has been a force for evil in today’s world: “Although the US has intervened in many countries claiming to promote human rights, the outcome has often been the wholesale destruction or destabilization of these countries”
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Since Xi Jinping took the helm nearly nine years ago, China’s economy has vaulted from half of America’s size to 70% or so — a gap that will continue to narrow, with some estimates saying it could surpass the U.S. within the decade.
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“While the U.S. military said the drone strike might have killed three civilians, Times reporting shows that it killed 10, including seven children, in a dense residential block”
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There is growing anecdotal evidence that for the first time in Russian history, members of the Russian elite and their children have started to learn Mandarin
The overall warming of attitudes to China is reflected in opinion polls, too, including recent data produced by the
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@jwdwerner
I was interviewed for this piece but my comments didn’t make it into published article.
I argue that US sanctions against China like those against
@Huawei
will ultimately backfire.
I also wrote about this in Nikkei Asia
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1/11 Deeply reported piece by
@NikkeiAsia
on challenges facing TSMC in Arizona and why its semiconductor fab there may end up a costly disappointment. Key points 👇👇👇
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This is pretty funny
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How to understand US antipathy towards China:“Financialized capitalism lost to industrial socialism.
But ideological fanaticism prevents US media and analysts from admitting this basic truth.”
In 1992, the US imported just $25 billion of goods from China. Americans never complained about outsourcing to China for another 20 years.
In fact, they loved free trade and all its “benefits” like cheap goods in Walmart.
Dot-com bubble and housing bubble kept Americans happy
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😂😂😂
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What Japanese netizens say about
@Huawei
Meng Wanzhou kidnapping: If Japan had fought as courageously as China back then, today Japan might have important role in global politics and economy, instead of being generally regarded as vassal state of the US
via
@globaltimesnews
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An honest comparison between China and US would be devastating for claims of American superiority
Another funny thing about China. The crime rate is absolutely nothing. People who are in prison I mainly there for drug offences. The crime rate is so low a murder in Beijing couple of months ago Was reported on the national news.
The mind boggles When you consider America or UK
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Is this the new normal now in the US?
Police responded to the 900 block of Palmer Aly NW at 7:03pm for the report of multiple individuals entering an establishment & unlawfully taking property. At this time, it is being classified as a Theft and there are no injuries reported.
#MPD
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Life scientist Yan Ning, for example, made headlines in China when she gave up a permanent post at Princeton University. After five years in the US, the structural biologist returned to China last year to establish and serve as dean of the Shenzhen Medical Academy of Research and
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China’s true sin: ”To be an Asian country daring to become the world's largest economy”
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