About 6 months ago, Russia - which is a member of the UN Security council- used its veto right to veto the yearly renewal of the Panel of Experts for monitoring sanctions on DPRK. Yes, the same Russia that is sending DPRK soldiers to fight - stopped the monitoring of sanctions on DPRK. The impacts pretty wide and include erosion of UN related mechanisms (and moving to UK/ EU / US sanctions mechanisms) , boosting of DPRK military program, and providing a direct benefit to mutual sanctions evasions. Fast forward to today, while President Trump and President Putin are declaring they want to stop the war in Ukraine, it's clear that the Russia - DPRK trade is peaking. According to Windward, over the last month there's a 90% uplift in DPRK related Dark Activities in Russia and a 70%+ uplift in DPRK related ships visiting the Russian coastline and ports. So while hoping for peace, the reality is that right now Russia is becoming a pariah, and two pariahs make a match... Sources: , , ,

As per POLITICO today, the EU is considering to apprehend Russian Shadow Fleet vessels transiting through the Baltic Sea for safety concerns, an issue that's been long in discussion and in my humble opinion actually is a good lynchpin for why you can apprehend vessels. It's almost an excuse but a good one as many of the shadow fleet vessels are effectively "rust buckets"! The Baltic is a key trade artery, with approximately 25% of Russian oil and product exports being exported via the Baltic. Indeed due to different issues (like the Ust Luga attack which I wrote about and the recent US sanctions) , the amount exported via the Baltic-sea coast dropped from 10m barrels per day of crude and 5m barrels per day of products in August 2024, and to 5.5 M of crude and 3m of products in Dec 2024. Windward data shows more than 1200 "shadow fleet or related" vessels that either did a dark activity or port call in the Baltic ports of Russia during the last 180 days. Practically most of them could be considered- based on the Eagle S case and on industry best practice analysis- a safety or security risk. So this is theoratically the size of the population that the EU can go after . Will they? let's see. Sources: , , ,

Over the last several months we've seen a surge in grey zone warfare. With more than a 100 cable faults a year according to @RecordedFuture . @WindwardAI customers- both public and private sector companies have been asking us to try and help this very complex challenge. There are basically three very different scenarios that need tackling: - Deep-sea research operations - Shallow-water sabotage - And - attacks on offshore oil rigs and platforms Each one takes place in a different way, at a different depth and poses a different risk. Over the last year, we've been building a set of purpose built capabilities: - Our proprietary layer of undersea critical infrastructure - Dedicated AI based vessel activities to allow for scalable mapping - Shadow fleet mapping and live tracking - Fully customized Organization Defined Risk - to allow for full flexibility - A dedicated version of MAI Expert for Critical Infrastructure and - dedicated in product Dataminr feeds that provide you first alerts. If you own, operate or are accountable for your company or country's maritime infrastructure -inaction is no longer an option. Please be in touch.

President Trump announced yesterday his "Maximum Pressure" policy - pushing to limit Iranian oil sales to 0. Can he do it? In 2024, Iran’s crude and condensate exports reached 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since 2018, driven by relaxed U.S. sanctions enforcement under the Biden administration and robust Chinese demand (remember? same ones buying the Russian oil and reducing their US oil purchases to less than 6m barrels / month in Jan 2025). Over 90% of Iran’s oil now flows to Chinese “teapot” refiners via a shadow fleet of hundreds of tankers. These buyers rely on discounted crude and evade sanctions through transshipment hubs (e.g., Malaysia). On February 5, 2025, Trump reinstated sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector with the explicit aim of driving exports to zero. Key measures include: • Targeting shipping, insurance, and port operators facilitating Iranian oil trade. • Leveraging the 2024 SHIP Act to penalize foreign ports and refiners (see Windward previous analysis here-). Windward data shows significant anomalies in Iranian- related trade over the month, namely - 1. A new trend of Iranian related vessels (including from the Ships Act) going dark in a much higher pace off Myanmar (probably to transship the cargo to a third party) . 2. A 40% increase in ship to ship transfers of Iranian related ships off Egypt. So if this is America's good friend - I'm sure they will start by trying to stop this phenomenon. 3. A 160%+ rise in commodity ship to ship transfers in the Red Sea (now that it's safe) . 4. Triple the amount of commodity STS in Iranian waters. Analysts project Iranian exports could decline by 200,000–600,000 bpd by mid-2025, though full enforcement remains uncertain. The West has a lot of sanctions to enforce, and we have seen it's easier said than done (reminder: Russia). Let's see where it goes. It's definitely going to make trading even more complex. We will keep an eye on new trends as they emerge in Iranian trade.

So China slapped back a 10% tariff on US crude imports. US crude oil exports to China have significantly declined in 2024with 81.9 million barrels of US crude imported over the course of the year, which represented a 46% drop from 150.6 million barrels in 2023. This decline moved China from being the second-largest buyer of US crude to the sixth-largest buyer. This coincides with the link-up with Russia, Iran and Venezuela (all big and sanctioned crude producers) and the discount on Russian crude and China being a top buyer (together with India) . Even pre tariffs, recent data shows only approximately 6m barrels of imports of crude from US to China. So while these tariffs do matter, in effect looks like they are continuing an ongoing trend and it won't be in and of itself a big hit on the US economy. Think of it like a warning sign. Indeed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were halted (for now) - - but if they are to go on the impact on freight and crude will be much bigger. Below: 600 port calls to China by crude importing tankers according to @WindwardAI during the last year.

RT @garrytan: The best founders I have ever worked with actually spot bugs in my software experience before I even do. They text me and say…

More cable cuttings in the Baltic anyone? The Shadow Tanker Abha has just been reported as apprehended by the German Navy / Nato Warship M1068 due to "straying out of shipping lines". I guess this shows the increasing vigilance of NATO and the German Navy in the Baltic. Take a look at the strange route the Abha takes here- where it also slows down a few times for some ±50NM to 6-8.5 knots- consistent with previous cases of cable cuttings. Here's the risk analysis from MAI Expert by Windward below. I'm not sure the recent Tariff news by the US is impressing suspicious cable cutters... Let's see where this goes... Sources: : "The Panama-flagged oil tanker Abha was intercepted by the German Navy vessel M1068 near Bornholm, Denmark due to straying outside of shipping lanes and slowing down over the C-Lion1 submarine cable. " *** The ABHA is flagged as High risk since March 1, 2024. The vessel is registered under the flag of convenience of Panama, and the P&I club is not recognized. The vessel's compliance risk is assessed as High, primarily due to its involvement in the Russia program. Key risk indicators include one instance of a Ship-to-ship meeting, five instances of suspicious cargo, four instances of Dark Activity, and five port calls to Russia. The most recent activity started on January 30, 2025. The vessel has undergone several port state control inspections in various regions, including Saudi Arabia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Australia, with some inspections resulting in deficiencies. The vessel has had multiple ownership and management changes in recent years, with the current owner, Kara Shipping Inc-mai, and the current beneficial owner, Armada Global Shipping Dmcc, both having a low compliance risk assessment. However, the previous manager, Fractal Marine Dmcc, has been sanctioned by the UK government.

RT @Benioff: Digital Labor TAM>Ent SW TAM

President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, implemented on February 1, 2025, introduce significant shifts in global trade dynamics with specific implications for tanker markets. The key tariff increases: - Canada: 25% on most imports, reduced to 10% for energy products (oil, natural gas, electricity). This amounts to 4.4 million barrels/day (60% of total U.S. crude imports , approximately $123B in 2023). Key buyers are midwest refineries (e.g., Marathon, Phillips 66) reliant on heavy Canadian grades Add some $22B of imports of Natural Gas in 2022. - Mexico: 25% across all imports. On the energy side, this amounts to 733,000 barrels/day (15% increase from 2022), and $7.6 billion (2023, at $82.41/barrel) . Primary destinations are (American!) Gulf Coast refineries (Valero, ExxonMobil). - China: 10% on all goods. China isn't exporting any energy to the US (which is a big exporter). This could divert Canadian crude to alternative markets (e.g., Asia), increasing demand for long-haul tankers. This could also spike rate hikes in tanker markets- similar to the impact Russia sanctions had (instead of exporting to a close territory like the US, go much farther). U.S. Midwest refineries, which rely heavily on Canadian oil, may seek replacements from Latin America, West Africa, or the Middle East, boosting transatlantic or Pacific basin tanker demand. - There are obvious ripple effects on Tonne-Miles: Rerouting of Canadian oil to Asia (+8,000 nautical miles vs. U.S. Gulf Coast) and Mexican imports shifting from the U.S. to Europe would increase ton-mile demand, a bullish signal for rates. According to @WindwardAI , more than 1200 tankers were involved in the Canada/Mexico --> US energy trade, calling all ports some 19500+ times in the last year.

As expected... Russia is following the same playbook as DPRK and Iran. I wrote here that one of the expected impacts of the new US sanctions will be accelerating the use of deceptive shipping practices and hiding the origin of their cargo. And : voila - three weeks after the event, according to Windward there is a 366% (!) increase in Russian related Ship to Ship transfers of crude/ products in the Sea of Crete and a 370% increase in equivalent Ship to Ship transfers off Singapore. These cargoes, according to the prevalent playbook might be blended, or further obfuscated in terms of certificate of origin. So next time you buy a cargo, backtrack where it came from ! Will be interesting to see President's Trump impact on the next steps with Russia.

@MarioNawfal , @Osint613 , @sentdefender take a look

Trump and Gustavo Petro exchange 50% tariff threats ! A major diplomatic clash erupted between the US and Colombia on January 26, 2025, after Colombia denied entry to two US military aircraft carrying deported Colombian migrants. Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow the US deportation flights to land, demanding that migrants receive “dignified treatment” and stating they should not be treated as criminals. He indicated Colombia would only accept its citizens on civilian flights rather than military aircraft. In response, Trump announced several punitive actions: • An immediate 25% emergency tariff on all Colombian imports, set to increase to 50% within one week • Travel bans and immediate visa cancellations for Colombian government officials and their families • Enhanced customs inspections for Colombian nationals and cargo • Implementation of financial sanctions under emergency economic powers Colombia's president announced on X that he won't back down and threatened to impose an equally high 50% tariff on US imports. The tariffs represent a significant shift in US-Colombia relations, as the two countries previously had a free trade agreement that eliminated duties on most goods. These measures could affect US prices of various Colombian imports including coffee, flowers, and gas. During the last year, according to Windward, approximately 1300 vessels had ±11000 port calls in the US after calling Colombian ports. So this is absolutely not negligible impact!

@Osint613 @Osint613 During the last year, according to Windward, approximately 1300 vessels had ±11000 port calls in the US after calling Colombian ports. So this is absolutely not negligible impact!

I was planning for a quiet Sunday, but then... According to Reuters, a fiber optic cable connecting Latvia’s town of Ventspils with Sweden’s Gotland island was damaged on Sunday morning (January 26, 2025) due to suspected “external influence”. The Latvian Navy has dispatched a patrol to inspect a vessel that potentially caused the damage and is coordinating with NATO on the incident. The situation was serious enough that Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina called an extraordinary government meeting. This incident adds to a concerning pattern of undersea infrastructure damage in the Baltic Sea region over recent months, though this is the first reported incident directly affecting Latvia’s undersea communications infrastructure. A quick search on Windward shows 12 Russian Shadow Fleet vessels have transited through that specific area in the last 24 hours. Of course, we don't know who did it, but based on the last events- that's where I'd start.

It happened again. Two more cables were severed last night off Matsu Islands - the Taiwanese enclave / islands off China according to Reuters. The islands served as Taiwan’s front-line defense against mainland China, resulting in numerous military installations, including defensive tunnels and fortifications. Many military strongholds were built along the shoreline, with Nangan alone having 95 military installations. It's super hard to actually know who and what did it. Is it intentional? or is it "natural decay"? Windward intelligence and models absolutely point out a few different perpetrators that could have done it, that are affiliated with Chinese government authorities (too sensitive for social media!) , and that showed relevant behavior that could be strongly correlated with cable cutting during the last 2 days. This area is quite shallow - with ground depth in the 10-40 meter range- making it much easier to severe cables (think about it: your anchor doesn't need to get to a 100 m depth, but to a 10 meter depth). This will happen again, and again , and again. Private companies and governments can and should invest in both getting an early alert capability as well as deep investigative capabilities.

@JTLonsdale Strong

I've been asked about 100 times in the last 48 hours - what do I think will happen to Red Sea crossings now that the Israel/ Hamas cease fire is taking place. Short answer: I'm not sure. Longer answer: - The data shows that for sure the first ones back to trade in Yemeni waters are: you're right- Russian related ships . The data shows that quite clearly. Although Yemeni ports were previously bombed and allegedly closed and we can agree are probably quite dangerous. - Whether or not liners like A.P. Moller - Maersk or CMA CGM will come back to sailing through the Suez Canal it remains to be seen. The Houthis mention they'll keep attacking "Israeli vessels", although I remain unsure what that means. If a vessel has a single container that it picked up from Malta with Israeli goods- does it fall under this category? - They also mention they won't attack US or UK interests "if the attacks on Yemen stop" - remains to be seen. So for now, the only thing we now is that the Yemen - Russia- Iran - China link is probably stronger than ever. Let's wait to see what the data actually says. Right now - it says nothing really changed .

Many have written here about the impact of the recent OFAC sanctions on one or two Russian related tankers transporting cargoes. Michelle Wiese Bockmann even wrote that she starts her day checking one by one. I was interested to take a look at @WindwardAI #earlydetection product and what trends do we see with Russian related oil trading during the last 7 days since the sanctions took effect. So here it is : +100% (!) the amount of Russian related tankers drifting in the South China Sea. Probably due to uncertainty of trading in ports in China. +200% Russian related tankers drifting in Vietnam (!) +168% Russian related tankers anchored in Sri Lanka. + 43% Russian related tankers anchored in Malaysia. + 113% Russian related tankers drifting in India. [the list goes on...] So when FreightWaves report + 25% freight rates of delivering Russian crude- this makes perfect sense. So much of the fleet is idle now. Less supply, same demand. Bigger risk to deliver. Who said that sanctions don't have an impact?

Here we go again! According to Reuters News Agency , and the Polish ministry of Defense, a Russian Shadow Fleet vessel has been circling around the underwater infrastructure in Poland. Windward has gotten this alert first from Dataminr and our AI and analytics pretty much show one specific candidate. If you're a telco operator, government agency, energy company - you are exposed. The worlds of compliance, underwater infrastructure and security have converged and need a simple, clear and actionable solution. This happens almost every single day. what will happen tomorrow? Read more here: