Ali Alfoneh علی آلفونه
@Alfoneh
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Author of "Iran Unveiled" (2013) & "Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran" (2020): #Iran , #Civilmilitaryrelations , #IRGC , #QF , in 🇺🇸Persian🇩🇰
Washington D.C.
Joined June 2009
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Dear friends, the book on political succession is now available on Amazon:
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1. I am not expecting a Hezbollah-Israel war:
Iran has already achieved its objectives in the Gaza war: Poked a hole in Israel's Iron Dome, shattered the myth of Israel's invulnerability, and ridiculed Israel's security and intelligence establishment.
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IRGC gets more anti-clerical by the day: Brigadier General Retired Hossein Alaei, IRGC Navy founder, in a 14 point letter demands "immediate closure of institutions such as the morality police, existence of which is more harmful than their absence,..."
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@Cihat_Bardak
@PiaOlsen
Tilgiv min uopfordrede indblanding i samtalen, men tillad mig at gætte:
@PiaOlsen
sender det helt rigtige signal om at man sagtens kan nyde frokost med en folketingskollega, som man ikke nødvendigvis deler politisk anskuelse med.
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Is it possible to overthrow a regime without an organized opposition with a leadership? Yes, if the regime in power lacks the will and ability to defend itself, but the Islamic Republic is not there yet. Those who want to overthrow it must organize and have a leadership.
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Danish weekly
@weekendavisen
Chief Editor
@mkrasnik
supports Iran's national team, is confident the
@FIFAWorldCup
will be held in "free Tehran". We are all looking forward to that. Tak
@mkrasnik
!
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Bravo Mr. Qouchani: "Why don't you invite a woman without hijab instead of inviting us? The middle class has lost its faith in elections and public debate. Every single day without a nuclear deal costs us money. Assad's wife wears no hijab!" IRIB 4 Oct 29.
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28
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(1) My analysis of
@khamenei_ir
's address at the Law Enforcement Forces Academy earlier today: He has realized the battle for compulsory hijab is lost, concedes women can be regime supporters even if their hijab is deficient, and raises the specter of separatism & civil war.
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@Deadline_dr
@RasmusJarlov
Måske er jeg ikke velinformeret på denne side af atlanten, men Søren Pape Poulsen havde mig bekendt ikke børn, og var heller ikke gift ved slutningen af sit alt for korte liv. Hvordan kunne han være konservativ partiformand, og statsministerkandidat, men ikke rollemodel?
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According to a credible source, exactly 4 hours prior to the missile attack, the U.S. warned Al-Assad Base commander of the time and location where missiles would hit. This indicates Tehran had informed Washington of its intention to avoid fatalities. Responsible behavior.
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2. I am not expecting a Hezbollah-Israel war: While Hamas and smaller proxies in Yemen and Iraq are expendable, Lebanese Hezbollah is a valuable deterrent against Israeli bombardment of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Why should Iran sacrifice Hezbollah for the sake of Gaza?!
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1. On the Morality Police: For the Islamic Republic, survival trumps ideology. The legislators don't have the courage to change the hijab law, but the regime has for some time stopped enforcing it due to the extraordinary friction it causes between state and society.
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28
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(1) Yours truly debating
@barbaraslavin1
&
@AlexVatanka
at
@MidEastPolicy
's Iran conference earlier today Oct 21st: In the course of the past 44 years, the Islamic Republic modernized the Iranian society, but was unwilling or incapable of adapting its politics to societal change.
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3. I am not expecting a Hezbollah-Israel war: Iran, Hezbollah and Israel do not want a Hezbollah-Israel war. Separately, Israel has concentrated its ground forces in the south, meaning in their analysis, there will be no war in the north.
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An IRGC junta is the most likely scenario... If they sacrifice clerics/
@khamenei_ir
, abolish hijab, legalise booze & dance clubs, their dictatorship can at least last 10 years in power... "They believe in profit, not the prophet!” Yours truly quoted in
@borzou
in
@Independent
.
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Foreign Shiite combat fatalities in Syria since January 19, 2012 and nationality.
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I am extending my condolences to the family of Dr. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, whom I met at an UNGA side event in September 2023. My observations at the time:
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Yours truly: "Who is the New Chief Commander of Iran's Quds Force?"
@GulfStatesInst
(Washington D.C.) January 3, 2019, available at:
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Alfoneh: "Khamenei’s... rule came to an end... as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly humiliated him by disobeying his decree to give up its economic interests."
@ArabWeekly
(Tunis) February 4, 2018.
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Kurds & Baluchis make up half of protester fatalities since September 19, 2022: Kurdistan province, along with Kurdish populated areas in Kermanshah and West Azerbaijan provinces, suffered 134 losses. Sistan va Balouchistan province registered 128 losses. In sum: 262 out of 502.
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The
@Europarl_EN
's vote in favor of IRGC terrorist designation is unwise: The regime is not on the verge of collapse, the IRGC is seizing power & sooner or later, EU member states may find it expedient to align with IRGC against a third party, replay of US-IRGC QF against ISIS.
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@ehsan_soltani
آرزو کنید آقای خامنه ای، با رعایت تمام موازین قانونی، در دادگاه علنی محاکمه شود.
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Earlier today, Ayatollah Mesbah passed away in Tehran aged 85. A prolific author, he leaves behind an impressive body of literature on Islamic political theory rooted in Plato, Khomeini and Schmitt. He was a brilliant proponent and theoretician of autocracy.
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آقای
@mopourmohammadi
خوش بیانترین، آقای
@drpezeshkian
صادق ترین، آقای
@mb_ghalibaf
استراتژیک ترین و آقای
@DrSaeedJalili
و پوششی هایش بی خاصیت ترین کاندیدا ها.
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My take on alleged IRGC Tehran Headquarters directive (1): IRGC intel operatives are ordered to infiltrate the ranks of the protesters; assume leadership over the protests; chant pro-Pahlavi slogans; identify protest leaders; are authorized to carry arms & vip communication line.
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حمایت از شبه نظامیون خارجی، مخالفت با حظور قدرت های فرا منطقه ای در خلیج فارس، اعزام نیرو و شرکت در جنگ برون مرزی، و برنامه های هسته ای و موشکی، ویژگی های مشترک سیاست خارجی و امنیتی نظام های پهلوی و ج. اسلامی. بوده، و در صورت سقوط نظام حاکم تغییر نمی کنند.
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(7) The regime is not in risk of immediate collapse, but it is on the verge of fundamental change from theocracy of the Shia clergy, into military dictatorship of the IRGC. IRGC desires to make Iran into Pakistan: A nuclear armed military dictatorship with a civilian facade.
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Documented IRI Armed Forces fatalities in major protests since 1992.
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Not expecting a response to Zahedi's assassination: Israel is trying to provoke Iran to retaliate, which may trigger a direct U.S. military intervention against Iran. Iran is aware of the risk, and exercises "strategic patience," since it achieved its objectives on October 7th.
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1.
@bbcpersian
's release of a
@FarsNews_Agency
bulletin, most likely produced for IRGC, is receiving delayed commentary. My comment: While the Shah only received sanitized intelligence reports from SAVAK, IRGC has access to excellent intelligence today.
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My biography of Major General Qassem Suleimani from 2011:
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Are claimants of opposition leadership outside of Iran willing or capable of organizing & leading the opposition? For the time being, no! I find it more likely that opposition organization & leadership emerge from the midst of anti-regime protests within Iran, but it takes time.
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Rafsanjani, Khamenei and Ahmad Khomeini "outmaneuvered most of their domestic rivals, controlled access to [the ailing Rouhollah] Khomeini, and de facto ruled Iran..." In my upcoming book "Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran".
0
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The IRGC is replacing Islamism with nationalism, evident in scapegoating the morality police for protests in Iran, and by using anti-Arab rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in response to
@IranIntl
's propaganda war: Today's
@NewsJavan
calls the House of Saud "an evil" "bedouin tribe"!
5
8
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A spy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is being fought globally, and "one of those unlucky places is Denmark." Yours truly in
@borzou
's "There's a spy war..."
@Independent
(London) February 5, 2020, available at:
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Relative representation of the Army, Astan-e Qods, IRGC/Basij, MOIS and non-affiliates in President Ebrahim Raisi's Cabinet. Discussed in "Is Raisi Iran's Supreme Leader in Waiting?"
@MEQuarterly
(Philadelphia) December 2021, available at:
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Brilliant! "Bad Comrade [alternative translation: Bad Company]: Some Russian officials welcome new sanctions against Iran. Where is Iran heading to along with Russia?"
@sazandegii
(Tehran) October 25, 2022.
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Yours truly: "Who is Iran's New Supreme National Security Council Secretary?"
@GulfStatesInst
Blog Post, May 23, 2023.
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Yours truly quoted in
@Beltrew
's "As important as Qassem Soleimani was, Iran's Quds Force will not fall apart after his assassination."
@Independent
(London) January 5, 2020, available at:
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من به آقای
@drpezeshkian
ارادت دارم، ولی ایشان در مورد نقش کارشناس در اتخاذ سیاست تفریط می کند: اقتصاد یا سیاست علوم دقیقه نیستند. ۵ اقتصاددان یا کارشناس روابط بین الملل معمولا ۶ سیاست متضاد پیشنهاد می کنند. وظیفه رئیس جمهور مشورت با کارشناسان ولی در نهایت تصمیم گیری سیاسی است.
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"The Revolutionary Guard was quick to scapegoat the Morality Police for the ongoing protests in Iran,... is trying to endear itself to the urban secular middle class in preparation for the post-Khamenei era." Yours truly in conversation with
@DRNyheder
's
@erkan_ozd
earlier today.
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Once the IRGC no longer perceives
@khamenei_ir
as a source of legitimacy and chooses to ditch the clerics, it will push the likes of Alaei to the forefront as the popular face of the IRGC. This is clever.
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My biography of Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, newly appointed chief commander of the Quds Force, from 2012, available at:
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3. On the Morality Police: The IRGC can buy itself at least 10 years in power if it manages to mix Islamism with nationalism; hangs a few Shia clerics and purges the rest from politics; and provides the middle class with personal freedoms (although not political freedoms).
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When can we expect an organized opposition & leadership to emerge & overthrow the regime? After the 1953 coup, it took the National Front 26 years, and Khomeini 16 years to overthrow the Shah. Technology has eased organization & charismatic leadership, but it still takes time.
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Is lack of organization & leadership an advantage to the opposition? Yes, since the regime can't infiltrate it or neutralize the leadership. However, lack of organization & leadership means oppositional activity fizzles out as in previous anti-regime protests in Iran.
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(2) My analysis of
@khamenei_ir
's address at the Law Enforcement Forces Academy earlier today: This is a face saving formula, which helps the regime ignore women without hijab, focus on safeguarding the country against real or imagined separatist threats, and ultimately survive!
1
2
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1. On Iran-Pakistan: Iranian leaders vowed to revenge the January 3rd terrorist attacks in Kerman, but had no interest in targeting the perpetrators, who most likely are headquartered in Taliban ruled Afghanistan, whom Iran does not desire to pick a fight with.
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24
"Succession, Tehran-style: How Khameini and the Revolutionary Guards Plan to Replace the Compliant Raisi" Yours truly in
@haaretzcom
(Tel Aviv) May 20, 2024.
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Mr.
@PahlaviReza
wants to replace the Islamic Republic with a secular democracy. Instead of telling us how, he talks of way ahead after regime collapse. 44 years after the revolution, he has yet to create strike funds, refuses to assume leadership, and has no organization. Why?!
8
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Having lost the battle for compulsory hijab, the regime is embracing unveiled women in its propaganda. Here,
@asriran_com
' praise of an unveiled lady in the November 4th rally, commemorating the anniversary of the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran.
2
9
26
Alaei has a long history of public criticism of the regime, and even
@khamenei_ir
: In his article in January 19, 2012 edition of Ettelaat, Alaei, without naming Khamenei, compared him with Mohammad-Reza Shah and predicted a Gaddafi-like destiny for him.
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2
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Bravo Mr. Qouchani 2: "Mr. Ahmadinejad managed to hoodwink the clergy, which is truly artful...! 4 to 7 million Iranians have emigrated abroad. Many of them used to vote in elections, but today, they assemble against the regime in Berlin. What has happened?!"
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Another lesson in realism: April 21, 1999 entry in Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's journal reveals then Quds Force chief Suleimani sided with Yugoslavia, not the Kosovar Muslims. "Mr. Qassem Suleimani... does not approve of defeat of Yugoslavia, the only force countering NATO."
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1. "For now, the regime has demonstrated it has the will and ability to survive." Yours truly quoted in
@ShaolinTom
's "As Iran Unrest Turns to Armed Clashes, Government Prepares Fight to Survive"
@Newsweek
, December 1, 2022.
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18
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Different factions, similar view:
Reajaei, former Rafsanjani adviser: "Hijab is no longer an issue,... Get rid of the morality police!" ; Zarqami, Minister of Tourism: "Today, our girls walk in the streets without hijab. So what?!"
0
6
22
@LRHCPH
@Deadline_dr
@RasmusJarlov
Tillad mig at omformulere mig: Hvorfor valgte
@RasmusJarlov
og Det Konservative Folkeparti salige Pape, en formand, og statsministerkandidat, som efter
@RasmusJarlov
's standarder, ikke kunne være rollemodel for det heteroseksuelle befolkningsflertal hvad angår familiestiftelse?
1
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"Engineering Presidential Elections in Iran: Coronation of Raisi" Yours truly in
@GulfStatesInst
Blog Post May 26, 2021, available at:
0
9
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(8) I do not know when the IRGC reaches the conclusion that Ayatollah
@khamenei_ir
no longer is a source of legitimacy, and they should deal with him the way the Securitate dealt with Nicolae and Elena Ceaușescu. But a military dictatorship is emerging fast.
1
8
23
(3) On the one hand, the Islamic Republic provides women with primary, secondary and higher education, and on the other hand, it wants to control what clothes they wear! The Taliban is more logical: Wants to control women, so it denies them education. They are more consistent!
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(6) But also the unprivileged engage in protests. The underclass which once was perceived as the vanguard of the revolution. Today, the regime could not care less about them, and in turn we see bread riots. If the middle class and the unprivileged join forces: Regime in danger!
1
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(2) According to the World Bank & IRI: Literacy rate in 1978: 50% - in 2022: 90%. Adult Female literacy rate in 1976: 24% - in 2016: 81%. Adult Female Tertiary School Enrollment in 1978%: 3% - in 2020: 57%. Percentage of female enrollment in universities in 2022: 60%!
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5
22
The late MG Suleimani is posthumously honoring G Petraeus and yours truly as "the two Americans with the best knowledge of my personality, character and work." Cmdr Pouriani quoting Suleimani in Iran (Tehran) January 3, 2021. I never worked for SD though!
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(5) Iran of today is not the Iran of 1979: The society has a large well-educated urban middle class well informed about the world. No surprise Iranians no longer believe in Ayatollah
@khamenei_ir
as intermediary between man and God, Guardian Council engineering elections, etc.
2
8
21
Alfoneh: "Using Syria as a Training Ground: The Case of the Pakistani Zeinabiyoun Brigade."
@GulfStatesInst
(Washington D.C.) July 17, 2018.
0
18
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Yours truly: "What Iran's Military Journals Reveal About the Goals of the Quds Force." Blog Post, Washington D.C.:
@GulfStatesInst
, June 9, 2020, available at:
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10
20
Documented IRI Armed Forces fatalities by service since September 17, 2022. Data collected from open source coverage of funeral services: Army: 2; IRGC: 12; IRGC Basij: 35; LEF: 14, MOIS: 2; Other: 2.
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9
22
2. On the Morality Police: The IRGC and its political allies soon identified the Morality Police as the cause of the ongoing protests, and called for its dismantling. This, I believe, was the first public attempt of the IRGC to distance itself from the unpopular Shia clergy.
2
4
22
1. Why Has the Regime Survived? Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has derived its legitimacy from 3 sources: religion, elections, & performance as a service and resource provider, the strength of all of which has declined. Why has the regime survived then?
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12
22
My take on the protests in the Islamic Republic (1): In Iran, people take their protests to the streets for two reasons: Freedom, or bread. While the middle class demands freedom, the underprivileged protest for bread, and there is little solidarity between the two groups.
1
6
21
Dear friends in the media, here you have my analysis of contradictory statements of Islamic Republic officials concerning the future of the Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, also known as the Morality Police. DM me if you have further questions. AA
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(9) My answers in the Q & A session: Assassination of MG Suleimani had no impact on efficacy of the IRGC QF. Killing of Muhandis, on the other hand, was disastrous for the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. Why? The IRGC QF is a highly institutionalized organization, PMF not.
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Yours truly extensively quoted in Ahmad Abbas Rizvi's "Iran may turn into military dictatorship after Khamenei"
@mena_trends
(Dubai) September 26, 2022.
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My friend
@ksadjadpour
honors me with a quote in his latest essay: "The Sinister Genius of Qassem Soleimani."
@WSJ
(New York) January 11, 2020, available at:
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1
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Yours truly: "Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of IRan's Qods Force?" Policywatch 3236, Washington D.C.:
@WashInstitute
, January 7, 2020, available at:
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The IRGC & allies are scapegoating Hashemi Golpayegani, Headquarters for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice director, for the crisis. First clear sign of their readiness to grant personal (not political) freedom to the middle class & throw clerics under the bus!
مدتی پیش در مورد ستاد امربمعروف توئیت زدم و مورد گلایه قرار گرفتم ، که چرا این نهاد مقدس را تضعیف می کنم !
امروز که ظاهرا همه ی آن دوستان به همین نتیجه رسیده اند ، میگم : «باباجون مردم اگر نخوان امربمعروف بشن کیو باید ببینن؟!»
4K
388
5K
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Incapable of “preventing Mossad from stealing truckloads of documents [or] assassinating scientists ..." regime creates "tragicomical spectacles of eliminating so-called enemies of the state.” Yours truly in
@peterson__scott
's "Kidnapping..."
@csmonitor
:
0
10
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1. "Iranian Protests and Tehran's Regional Role Revised" Yours truly debating Dr.
@SanamVakil
and Dr.
@mohalsulami
at
@GulfStatesInst
February 14, 2023 panel moderated by Ambassador William Roebuck, with intro by
@RayKaram
. Video available at:
1
4
18
Bravo Mr. Qouchani 3: "You in government, have weakened the press, which is why foreign [Persian language] broadcasters [to Iran] have gained disproportional influence... Pay more attention to the periphery regions: Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Sistan va Balouchestan, and Khuzestan."
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2. The Pahlavi regime was a personalist dictatorship, centered around the person of Shah Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi. The Islamic Republic, on the other hand, is a highly institutionalized regime with competing centers of power. Failure of one center does not result in regime collapse.
1
4
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"Israel sabotages JCPOA talks & complicates Iran's relations with Iraqi Kurds, by releasing details of Suleimani's assassination." Yours truly discussing with
@RezaVaisi
,
@777ECU
,
@HDastpish
, expertly moderated by
@Sima_Sabet
,
@IranIntl
(London) May 9, 2021.
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2
20
Another example is
@FarsNews_Agency
's coverage of a half veiled young woman, who allegedly said: "We will not allow the West to come here!" Another allegedly said: "I'm the half-veiled [yet patriotic] girl, to whom Commander Suleimani referred."
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"Forty-one years after the revolution, the Islamic Republic is ideologically and, increasingly, economically bankrupt." Yours truly in: "Revolution Day in Iran: Nothing to celebrate!"
@ArabWeekly
(London) February 16, 2020, available at:
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8
17
Is the IRGC throwing the morality police, the clerics & perhaps
@khamenei_ir
under the bus? Can IRGC ingratiate itself with protesters? Read my "The Regime's First Real Scapegoat for Protests in Iran" in
@GulfStatesInst
#IranMediaReview
October 14, 2022:
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9
17
(10) The IRGC secures its interests: With JCPOA, it hopes to attract Foreign Direct Investment & perhaps joint ventures between foreign and IRGC companies. Without JCPOA, it will continue smuggling oil & stealing 30% of the revenue, and works to become custodian of Iran's nuke.
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Alaei's 2012 article was countered by an open letter of 12 prominent IRGC commanders, but he retained his position at IRGC Imam Hussein War University, and remains a member of the core of the collective leadership of the IRGC. The IRGC wisely kept him just in case it needs him.
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4. On the Morality Police: While an IRGC dictatorship allowing sex, drugs and rock & roll will most likely satisfy the majority of Iranians; a minority will insist on political freedoms, which the IRGC will not allow. But this exercise will buy the IRGC at least 10 years in power
6
1
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Ayatollah
@khamenei_ir
's election engineering moderately successful: He wanted a
@mb_ghalibaf
&
@DrSaeedJalili
run-off & Jalili as president. Qalibaf did not make it, but endorses Jalili, who is likely to win, unless
@drpezeshkian
can significantly increase the voter turnout.
3
8
18
1. Protester fatalities and gender September 19 - November 22, 2022: 427 male, 48 female. Total: 475. Data extracted from Iran Human Rights Society's website as of November 29, 2022 5 AM EST.
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On War 1: The debate about Iran's involvement in the Gaza war is silly, but serves a purpose: The U.S., which does not want to fight Israel's war with Iran, does not want to know that Iran triggered the war.
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1. Iran protests in perspective: Since June 1981 consolidation of power, Iran has experienced only 7 major anti-regime protests: 4 economic protests by the underprivileged & 3 middle class political protests. No protest managed to mobilize both classes.
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8
18
Iran's 2020 budget: $39 billion. $14 billion financed by taxes, $25 billion traditionally covered by oil revenue, but now severely restricted. Gold reserve: ca. 100 tons. My prediction: The regime probably survives Trump's first term in office. May even survive economic collapse.
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When Montazeri asked Rafsanjani and Ahmad Khomeini about the arms for hostages deal, the terrified clerics asked him how he found out. Montazeri answered: "the jinns told me... I'll always somehow find out!"
In my upcoming book "Political Succession..."
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5
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Iran and its proxies, a debate between yours truly and Drs.
@HamidRezaAz
and
@SanamVakil
on Amwaj Media Debate,
@amwajmedia
(London) July 29, 2024.
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سال ۵۷ بخش بزرگی از مردم ساواک را مسئول فاجعه سینما رکس آبادان می دانستند و امروز جمهوری اسلامی را مسئول مسمومیت دانش آموزان. دو نظام و یک مشکل: بیاعتمادی مردم به حکومت.
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