Syria 2024
@Aleppo2024
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Syrians are still both shocked & mesmerized by the events of this month . How can a 54 year-old rule have such an abrupt closing chapter? . This account was created to help shed light on the key events that led to Dec 8 & the departure of Assad . Key insiders have come forward to
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Countdown to Assad ‘s fall started on Oct 7, 2023 when Hamas / Sinwar initiated an attack on what had become known as the Nova music festival massacre inside #Israel . While the world was shocked by the event, few at the time thought that this massacre would have anything to do
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Why was Hezbollah / Nasrallah so important to Assad? . As #Syria ‘s war started, Assad soon found out that his army was not committed enough to die for him. As economic sanctions started to bite, his ability to pay his soldiers waned further. Standards of living were in free fall
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Sep 27, 2024 was both symbolic & real turning point when #Israel decided to kill Nasrallah as one of the key figures in the resistance axis. That day Assad lost what has arguably been his number one ally, confidant, financial & manpower resource. Assad now had less than 3m left
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Was #Syria ruled by Alawis or the Assad family that happened to be Alawi ? . The answer to this question is critical but has received little attention. Based on numerous interviews and conversations, the answer seems to be resoundingly clear - Syria was ruled by the Assad family.
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Can’t finish without mentioning the absolutely sickening and revolting images and stories coming out of #Syria ‘s prisons. Most Syrians have been traumatized by seeing the industrial scale of those atrocities . Yes, many have long known that the regime dealt brutally with dissent
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If Assad was good at anything, it was to convince the minorities as well many capitals that without him and his family rule, all minorities (and even secular citizens) were doomed . Alawis in particular fully believed this narrative and hence threw their fate to Assad ‘s will.
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As the war broke out and economic sanctions followed, paying the regular army became increasingly harder. Fighting and dying for Assad was getting more difficult to rally as financial resources dwindled. As that unfolded , Assad realized he needs to garner support from groups.
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It is true that Alawis made most of the key intelligence agencies as well as the senior figures in the Army. This is not to say that Sunnis like Ali Mamlouk did not hold key positions. Important thing to remember however is that Alawis did not really put up a fight when the final.
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The first genius move of Ankara was to publicly reach out to Assad to make him believe that the Turkish leadership is keen to hold talk with him about teaming up against the Kurds. This outreach was made while knowing fully well that Assad was likely to reject it. The purpose was.
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Salaries of the Syrian army officer class was barely US$ 30 a month. Conscripts were making US$10. Senior officers were letting their subordinates stay home to collect their salaries to make ends meet. The army was hollowed on the inside and precious few were left to fight
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Remember that the assault on #Aleppo happened with Assad in Moscow. Was Turkey informed by the Russians ahead of time? Also, while the attack on Aleppo happened in daylight, the advance on Hama and Homs took place at night. The Syrian Air Force had no capability to strike at.
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As the armed groups reached Hama at night without any Russian Air Force response, the Syrian army was disintegrating. Many thought, surely the army will hold in Damascus. Assad ‘s generals in the meantime were led to believe that the President will pull out a last rabbit out his.
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Most of the info on this thread has come from countless insiders who have stepped forward and shared their personal stories of what happened during the remarkable week between Dec 2-8 . The thread is already too long and many other interesting details will have to wait for.
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What is the likely future of #Syria post Assad ? How will the new rulers of Damascus fare and govern? What are the prospects of the minorities? Should one be optimistic or fearful? Every Syrian is asking those questions. While the answers are impossible to know with any
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The speed and relative success of this dazzling change in Damascus owes itself to the fact that the armed groups did have one leader in Ahamd al Sharaa. He is from Damascus (grew up near Al shafi’i mosque ) and hence has a better sense of how urban citizens of the country live.
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Strong campaigning is underway by #SaudiArabia #UAE #Jordan #Egypt to pressure Western capitals and especially Washington not to offer the new rulers of #Syria any legitimacy . Above regional capitals are insisting on both Resolution 2254 and the fact that many of the individuals
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If Hafez Assad was both charismatic and more decisive, Bashar was neither. He had all of his father ‘s negative traits but none of his positives. When his father had grown up in a humble surroundings, Bashar was 5 when his father became President. He knew nothing but privilege.
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Assad would spend the next 14 years as the captain of the sinking Titanic . He would do everything in his power to keep it afloat . He would call Hezbollah, Iran , Russia and even the devil himself to prevent the sinking of his ship . But every signal of renewed stability was a
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#Syria ‘s Ministry of Education has already issued list of amendments to the curriculum. In one of the changes, a martyr (شهيد) is no longer defined as one “defending the homeland” but one who lost his life “for raising the name of God”
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To be fair, the late 1970’s revolt came when #Syria was experiencing a relative economic boom that many still call as the golden years. Hafez Assad was building a State. He was bringing electricity to remote villages. He was building dams, bridges and highways. He was investing
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Significant Developing story in #Aleppo. Up to 600 mostly young Alawite women have gone missing near Khanaser/Sfireh having tried to escape Women’s Military Academy of Aleppo. Talk/fear is that they got arrested. Role they had at the academy was known to be mostly administrative
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Instead of making substantive changes to its economy, the Assad rule was preoccupied with one single objective: . Stay in power at any cost . A massive security system kept an eye on everyone and anything that was deemed a risk. No matter how brutal or unaccountable an act was,.
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How bad was Assad’s rule over #Syria ? . Bad enough that the ex head of al-Qa’ida’s affiliate in Syria walks into his seat as the country’s new hope and promise
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By the time the uprising started in 2011, Assad’s so called economic reforms were both ineffective at producing higher standards of living for the masses while at the same time creating a ridiculously privileged and wealthy group of profiteers from a system built on corruption
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While the Assad family claimed that the Muslim Brotherhood was crushed, the truth was that its ideology never died. Why was an Alawi ruling a Sunni majority is the question that many asked themselves. Moreover, the wounds of relatives, sons and daughters of those killed or
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Who were the supporters of #Syria ‘s Assad regime and why? . Which parts of society did this support come from and what motivated them? . Was it real support or fear of the unknown?. Or was it just pure evil and greed?. Was there anything positive about this seemingly brutal
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Hafez Assad ‘s biggest achievement was crafting a coup-proof system that he passed on to his son. His biggest failure was economics. He would pass that on to his son too. While the system was a by-product of the 1960’s and the Soviet Union socialist model, it was stuck in time.
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How stupid must every Alawi high-ranking officer and security official feel now for not firing Assad and turning their back on him . Seeing their ship heading in slow motion straight towards the iceberg and doing nothing about their captain. Submissiveness and stupidity galore
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While #Hezbollah’s and #Iran’s help were invaluable between 2012 and 2015, #Russia ‘s air power was needed to win the battle for #Aleppo back in late 2016. Assad seemed to have won it all thanks to his two main foreign allies plus Hezbollah. Won it but for #Idlib which was.
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Judging by the last two weeks and on a scale of 1 to 10, Ahmad al Sharaa receives a score of 11 so far
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Yes, how dare his own men not fight for him on $20 a month?.
President Bashar Al Assad didn’t flee Syria in 2024 out of fear but he left because he was betrayed by his own men and there was nothing, absolutely nothing he could do anymore. Let someone prove that it is not so.
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If there was ever a time for #Iran and IRCG to recalibrate, it was now. Why not use the next 4 years to retrench. Why keep wasting human and financial resources at a front that is now under endless assault? . Just as Tehran was thinking of Pivoting inwards, Ankara was watching.
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Ahmad al Sharaa has made his leadership of #Syria fait accompli . Others are dazed by how fast it all moved and how irrelevant they feel
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It didn’t take long for other advisors around Assad and particularly his brother Maher to feel uneasy about this outreach to #UAE given the way IRCG would likely view it . Under pressure, Assad downplayed the new budding relationship and did very little to offer Abu Dhabi clear.
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Between 2018 and 2023, Assad did little to dramatically change the international diplomatic landscape around him. In many ways, he wanted to have his cake and eat it too. He never fully pivoted from Tehran to give #UAE the cards it needs to help while he was simultaneously.
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Assad was never a fan of being tied to a single patron or ally. He was always keen to hedge himself against even his most trusted allies. Advisors who were always more keen on reaching out to the West were actively seeking an outreach to Abu Dhabi in particular. Assad privately
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As soon as Hamas struck, all eyes were on members of the resistance axis and whether they would join or not. The decision was left for Nasrallah to manage the level and type of response. Close observers of Hezbollah believed that as Nasrallah opened a limited front with #Israel ,
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It was during this period of 2018 and 2023 that Assad not only failed to decisively pivot to one side or the other but he also ended up using his time and energy to set up a maze of business and revenue generating ventures that would alienate and anger many citizens. Note how in.
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One of Assad ‘s main problems is that he governed as a so-called secular . Future secular politicians now carry a big target on their back . The secular label has been tarnished in #Syria for sometime to come.
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Hassan Soufan has been nominated as Governor of Lattakia province in #Syria. According to well informed observers, #SaudiArabia arrested Soufan before the war in Syria started in 2011. He was then handed to Damascus where he was wanted. Regime later released him in a prisoner
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As the armed groups attacked #Aleppo , the Iranian militias were reportedly nowhere to be seen. Assad had long requested that the Army absorb the militias anyway and Tehran over time obliged. The more the militias got pulled out, the bigger the hole was in Aleppo’s defensive.
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Regardless of the reasons, there seems to be an explicit attempt by the new rulers of #Aleppo to reach out and calm the fears of the Christian community
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The role of #Syria ‘s Defense Minister has now come under severe scrutiny by those familiar with the country ‘s military. The inevitable blame game has started as to how the army crumbled and who was responsible. Talk now is that the minister himself may have given the order to
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Assad’s socialist economic system was based on free education and subsidizing essential food and energy products for low income groups . The glaring failure of this system was evident when the 2011 uprising started from this very same income group that the economic model was
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Back in early 2015, Assad was approached to convince him to de-escalate the conflict by putting a stop to barrel bombs. Such a crude military tactic by Damascus was putting significant public and diplomatic pressure on Western governments to intervene directly in the Syrian
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New rulers of #Syria sticking to Sharia law and religious doctrine in governance will be no different than the old rulers having stuck to socialism, resistance or Ba’athism. Going down the path of ruling via the words of God will be another massive opportunity lost for this
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“#Syria ‘s new leaders are wolves in cloths of sheep who are trying to persuade the world they are not radical Islamists. We are not fooled by many of the conversations and interviews of those rebel groups who are, in fact, terrorist groups. We are very aware of what they are
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While attempts by the new rulers to calm the Christian community are underway in #Aleppo , reports are that all alcohol consumption at local restaurants has just been banned.
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By not picking his own replacement for the past 14 years, #Syria ‘a Assad has effectively handed power to the only group that was going to topple him - Islamists
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Stunning response by Ahmad al Sharaa of #Syria to reporter’s question (minute 28) on the subject of free markets and whether this may harm lower earning groups in society . He answered the question like a true disciple of capitalism: Free market economics increases investment and.
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A lot has been discussed of the jihadist and al Qaeda background of Ahmad al Sharaa . Three points to make . 1-Was it really possible for civilians or non armed groups to topple Assad? . 2-How would all the armed groups unite behind one single man and accept him as leader? Only
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Had the Muslim Brothers (Ikhwan), won in the 1970’s, so many more lives would have been saved. So much more wealth and prosperity would have been created. So much misery would have been avoided . Even #Syria ‘s most ardent seculars may now agree given the past 50 years. They.
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79 years after the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood in #Syria , a version of Sunni Islamism and religious conservatism finally grabbed power. Chances are this ideology holds on to this power for decades to come.
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What is next in #Syria ?. Four digit number will occupy the next fight . 2254 . Ahmad Al Sharaa as the de facto new ruler of the country wants the world and other Syrians vying for power or political positions to hit the delete button & declare the UNSC resolution null and void
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Interesting that many are criticizing #Syria ‘s Ahamd al Sharaa of wearing such expensive shoes . But how do we know they are not fake and that they were both bought and made in Malki in Damascus
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The modern history of #Syria is already complicated and volatile enough. Add the religious and sectarian mix of its society and you have a recipe for increased tensions that reside deep down in people’s collective memories. Every Syrian household seems to have been told a story
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Yes, things may change for the worse soon . But . Doubt many can deny the significantly better than expected outcome so far . Modern history of #Syria however makes it hard to be optimistic for too long.
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#Syria ‘s people are having to decide which option is better . Sharia law . Or . Electricity.
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For 54 years, Christian and other minorities were of the view that should Assad fall from power, their necks were at risk. The last two weeks have come as a relatively pleasant surprise. So surprised many are that they can’t resist adding the words ….”So far”, when discussing.
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Assad’s rule over #Syria was challenged within years of taking power in 1970 through the Muslim Brotherhood . 50 years later, and multiple attempts to take down the rule finally succeeded early this month . A total waste of 5 decades of trying to keep power challenged by a.
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One of the consequences of #Syria ‘s long war is that millions of its citizens travelled abroad, got a different education and learnt new skills . This will prove to be a valuable asset going forward
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For the first time in nearly 60 years, #Syria ‘s population will have to live without government subsidies.
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How does one know that Damascus did not expect #Aleppo ‘s events?. All gas stations had excess quantities of gasoline that were sold today to the public at the lowest subsidized price under supervision of the new rebels in town . Had Damascus known, they would have pulled those.
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Being from a minority sect, Assad was only going to be accepted by the majority if he was able to deliver turbo-charged economic growth and prosperity . Instead, his biggest failure was the economy and the inability to transform it from socialist structure to become more open and
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What would current and future leaders have learnt post the fall of #Syria ‘s Assad?. -Since the Arab Spring started, those who lost power were all non-Monarchies. Rule number 1: Harder to hold on to power in Republics no matter how hard one tries . -Monarchs in the region have
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New rulers of #Syria ought to place a pre-condition on European and other capitals before accepting refugees back . The proposal should be to secure a 20 year tax free agreement on all exports out of the country to Turkey / EU / US coupled with the financing of a fully
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Need Help: . Trying to think of a single positive achievement of Assad over his 24 year-old rule of #Syria ,but couldn’t come up with one
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