John Downs - Mortgage Advisor
@AdvisorJohn
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Real-Time Housing Data & Opinions🏘️ Financial Crisis Survivor 📉 Exercise 🥜🏃♂️🚴🏼💪 Spirited Girl Dad
Washington, DC
Joined November 2020
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Pinned Tweet
"Trust, but verify." That is a key message in my "
#Mortgage
Interest Tax Deduction" video. With today's rates, the savings can be meaningful. I explain my basic formula (for areas with state income tax), and more importantly, I provide steps for verifying the savings!
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@bennyjohnson
It really is fascinating how this story isn’t anywhere in the media. I would have expected a bit more coverage on this. Remember the BP oil spill, it was days and days and days of coverage, fly overs, specialists, etc. This has gone nowhere. I honestly thought it was fake news.
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2K
@nmlinguaphile
In the days where Uber exists, we should have absolutely zero tolerance for intoxicated drivers.
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The credit reporting system really is a bit of a sham. Client has 10+ years perfect credit, including a mortgage giving him a 765 score. Report is now expired, we rerun to prepare for a contract...score is 636.
Why? A credit card late payment of $53 w/ $255 balance, $20k
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@RealCandaceO
The “be proud of your big self” movement is one of the worst things we can celebrate as a society. Nothing about obesity should be celebrated. Confidence is one thing, this is something different.
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I just watched a mortgage industry coaching platform video highlighting a loan officer's "Winning strategies in today's market." Here is what I heard:
-Show the client our conviction in rates dropping and refinancing in the next 12-18 months.
- Showing low down payment financing
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@RepAdamSchiff
@RepMarkTakano
For what it’s worth, I see none of that and consume a fair amount of Twitter posts.
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Mortgage Fraud is definitely on the rise. I've noticed this as another end-of-cycle behavior as the ugly contracts get accepted and desperate Realtors/Originators try to squeeze whatever they can through the system.
Examples have been:
1/n
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A condo owner today told me something I never heard. He said his HOA said he could no longer STR (Airbnb) his unit because their insurance provider prohibited it. In searching for new insurance providers, it sounded like they all did it. Is this now normal?
@texasrunnerDFW
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A real
#RealEstate
story the RE Bros won't tell you.
To keep this short, it is the story of a house hacker who now owns 5 houses since beginning his journey in 2020. All strategic, low down payment, underwriting acceptable move-ups using owner-occupied financing.
1/
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My girls are in 8th and 9th grade. The
#Instagram
private stories from their friends they tell me about are just awful. Weed Gummies, Vaping @ school, alcohol, hook-ups…it’s crazy. Parents have no freakin clue who their kids really are. This next generation is going to be rough.
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House Hacking Bros are getting a big financing hookup. Fannie Mae just reduced down payments by 10% for two unit properties and 20% for 3-4 units! (5% Down!)
FHA has a rent/payment cap restriction for 3-4 units to prohibit excessive leverage on the property. Fannie doesn’t.
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This was listed at $995k in Virginia, 30-45 min commute to DC. Today, it received 13 offers & winner went north of $1,125,000 with no contingencies.
The burbs of DC are on fire. Inventory is ⬇️ 70% from 2019. Very little new construction…this pain will persist for some time.
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@HazelAppleyard_
It’s not until your about 35-40 years old, staring down at your own children playing or fighting or doing whatever kids do that you begin to realize, your parents were always right and you were just brainwashed into following a lost herd when you were younger.
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I continue to be amazed at how well home buyers are taking $6k…$7k…$9k payments!! I choke while quoting them yet the response is, “that’s kind of what I was thinking.”
Keeping in mind I’m speaking to about 60% fewer pre-qual buyers per week compared to a more normal 2019.
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@BuenoForMiami
Very true - in my work, I speak to a lot of younger couples. It does shock me how kids seem to be a conversation in mid-to-late 30’s now. I am in the “have more babies” camp and keep pounding that drum when I talk to people. You don’t realize it until you’re in your 50’s…
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@JeromeAdamsMD
@Xenomorphism
I never thought about it that way but that makes a lot of sense!
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@BarbellFi
Wow - no family?!? If I was him, I’d set up scholarship fund for plumbing trade schools to help bring in the next generation of plumbers. That would be a good way to support the industry that supported him.
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@fasc1nate
Funny how we know she’s a woman…but can’t seem to figure out the ones alive and breathing anymore.
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@FoxNews
That would just be fantastic. Even more people who have zero concept of money, finance, spending, who get trophies for participation voting people into office. What could possibly go wrong? Next, we will allow 10 year olds identifying as 21 year olds to vote…
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Many on X believe that
#Realtors
and
#LoanOfficers
are greedy, self-servicing, sleazy salespeople.
Maybe you can help me out?
What is the best way for Buyers/Sellers to inform themselves? Either on the market, the process, or the professionals they choose to work with?
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‼️ Attention Homeowners w/
#Rates
> 6.00% ‼️
Pay VERY close attention to the costs of any refinance proposals you receive, especially from your loan servicer. Enticing Low rates with high closing costs seems to be the tactic used during this cycle.
Analyzing refinances...
🧵
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A social influencer posing as a realtor who spent the last 3-years buying property taking equity lines for leverage just called: “The HELOC % is going to bury me. It’s almost 3X what it was and I have vacancy, my comm $ suck & I need cash. What can I do?”
Won’t be the last…
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‼️‼️
#Realtors
‼️‼️
Be careful helping buyers structure rental portfolios using owner occupied financing. Especially for those who never really intend on moving in. Trust me when I tell you that lenders have many tools at their disposal to find the fraud.
When fraud occurs, a
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@Riley_Gaines_
@TeenVogue
This is insane. I share these things with my 13-15 year old girls. I let them know about the practice of manipulation in life/media. They are quickly becoming anti-social media kids because they say that’s all they see. Now that their eyes are open, they see it everywhere. Sad
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A
#Refinance
Solicitation: True story from a client call yesterday.
"They told me I'd save about $300 per month and it would only cost me $1,219. Sounds like a good deal to me! Can you tell me what you can offer before I proceed with them?"
The Devil is in the details!
1/n
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#Mortgage
#LoanOfficers
- it is quite possible that the economic model of mortgage lending has changed and past experiences will be nothing like future results. That begs the question, should you change careers?
In my 25 years, income has been mostly predictable. But...
1/n
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The Home Insurance saga continues. It's almost like they are going through what the mortgage industry did post-subprime blowup. Underwriting is actually becoming a thing. Here are consolidated notes from the week:
Flat Roofs - some insurance companies won't insure them at
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@WuWei113
Nothing but empty words of mystical optimism comes out of her mouth. Never specific policy, never addressing the real question, just sticking to the memorized statements her handlers gave her. What an embarrassment that this is really an option to be President of the US.
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@CollinRugg
Does anyone believe this story? Especially when the other guy involved was hit by a car and killed a few days prior. Nothing is that coincidental.
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Likely outcome - mostly paid by seller.
Your thoughts?
1% Listing Agent (or flat fee)
Staging & Photos cost to rise
1.5-2.5% Buyer Comp
If a seller wants top dollar, they need to pay the real salesperson, and in todays digital world, that is not the listing agent.
My $0.02.
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Unpopular Opinion for X:
Hug your
#Realtor
and
#LoanOfficer
. They worked VERY hard during 2020-2022 to help people secure a home at a very low rate and thus low, inflation-busting payment.
Their income is now mostly non-existent. And it won't be getting better anytime soon.
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I wish all this student loan debt forgiveness didn’t trigger me as much as it does. Even the 10-year public service forgiveness…did you know the 3.5 years of non-payment for pandemic relief counted in the ten year required term? It’s fiscal insanity.
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@WallStreetSilv
My cousin is a produce manager at a local grocery store. He told me people keep paying like crazy for precut fruit. They sell whole items much less and nobody buys them but always run out of precut. If people keep paying, why not keep charging? People’s laziness = company $$$.
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@leah_walczak
So for a guy like me who is still wearing clothes from 5-7 years ago, that could be my place to shop??
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#FHFA
should require
#FannieMae
and
#FreddieMac
to make major changes to their "Owner Occupied" guidelines. If they required a minimum duration before a new OO loan could be utilized (exp. 24-36 months) while adding exemptions to the rule such as Family Size Increase or
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@realpeteyb123
They are the worst. I’m pretty sure their actions are 90% for attention and 10% because they really care.
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@VivekGRamaswamy
@KamalaHarris
I honestly can’t wait until she disappears like Sarah Palin did.
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A tale of two worlds. I speak with aspiring homebuyers/sellers daily. What do I see? Wealth. Lots of it. A net-worth explosion.
My wife is on local FB "Moms" groups. What does she see? Financial pain, struggle, depression, hopelessness.
What a bifurcated world we live in.
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@TuckerCarlson
What’s most fascinating is I know nothing of this guy except he’s a buff dude w a ton of confidence who ran a ring to smuggle and enslave children and woman. (From headlines only) The real human trafficking crime made me laugh out loud. Never trust the headline…or the media.
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Speaking to a LO today and this made me laugh, and cry a little. He Jumped through hoops to get someone pre approved over the weekend to submit an offer. Tricky file, probably 2.5-3.0 hours of work. They win. Today they say, I’ve been shopping around and XYZ lender is .125%
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What's the lesson I want you to understand?
Greed and status can make you successful to the point of self-destruction.
Leverage + taking instant IRS credits (filing taxes w/ accelerated depreciation) to live large, acquire properties, be that person on X, IG or TikTok talking
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@VivekGRamaswamy
This was a good exchange. I don’t disagree with a single thing Vivek said here. My kids have been multiple different humans so far, they are only 13-15. Adults have freedom of everything, children and developing minds need time to mature. Exp. Driving age - drinking age - etc
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A client today said, "I can rent the same thing for $1,500 less per month and make $400/month on my $100k down payment. I'll wait. If prices jump 5% when rates drop (like most realtors/LOs say), I will have saved at least that much waiting..."
Price: $625k DC Condo
Principal and interest payment on a $600k mortgage (30-year):
@ 2.65% it'd be $2,418 (i.e. Jan. 2021)
@ 3.11% it'd be $2,565 (i.e. Dec. 2021)
@ 7.37% it'd be $4,142 (i.e. today)
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@stillgray
For some reason, I can’t stop watching these things. Every time, I’m like, this can’t be real and yet I keep seeing more and more. This is proof that I’m officially getting old…
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Am I the only one who is starting to think that this NAR commission change is just going to be one big nothing-burger?
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I’m 46. When I bought my first house at 23 years old, there wasn’t an ounce of thought about buying it as an investment. Then again, my social media feed wasn’t full of 20 year old RE bros pimping how to use OPM to buy 100 doors so I could quit my day job.
Such diff times…
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@Warner_Jimenez
@FightHaven
I think it’s the blow off top of pent up frustrations dealing with the constant disrespect from today’s youth. It probably wasn’t really what that kid did, or said, it was days or months of everyone else that this kid probably triggered. (I’m not condoning the action here)
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Is
#Housing
entering a new phase? Many (including myself) have been talking about pent-up demand, buyers on the sidelines waiting to pounce on new inventory or when rates drop. That could be changing.
These past couple of weeks, I had approx 20% of my pre-approved buyers stop
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@Riley_Gaines_
You perfectly called that out and made the example. As each day passes, I continue to be more and more shocked that this is even a discussion educated people are having.
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@0xRedFusion
@GoldTelegraph_
Maybe Apple will finally stop crashing phones automatically when they hit the 22nd month of their 24 month contract…
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@unusual_whales
I think there was a case study done in the US with negative amortization loans back in 2006 and 2007…
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@liberty_lyss
@ZubyMusic
This here is 100% the answer. It starts on the internet…it bleeds into school from there.
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@Cernovich
I wouldn’t be surprised if they accidentally released a more dangerous virus. Isn’t this how it all started in the first place?
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@bscholl
@mattyglesias
Exactly. I guess the 500 bps Fed move has nothing to do with it. This administration has tried their best to keep the inflation fire alive…the Fed is winning. Student loan payments coming back is the nail in the coffin.
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@ChrisChavez
My entire adult life, I get this same feeling every four years watching the US Men's 4 x 100. That baton is their kryptonite.
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@LillyRockwell
@KaysarRidha
Some of these mortgage payments are so out of whack because they took debt 100% based on Airbnb. Many of these “landlords” took on multiple of these projects and lack real liquidity to keep as long term rentals. Certainly not all, but very many.
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I’m going down DSCR loan rabbit holes. Hello 2007!
Rates are in the 8s and 9s…25% down, NO UNDERWRITING REQUIREMENTS.
NINA Loans disguised as investor loans with prepayment penalties to skirt Dodd-Frank Appendix Q guidelines.
LO Friends - how many of these have you done?
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@StealthQE4
@drewdamn87
Dc Metro: Summary of Realtor calls this week.
Me: “What objections are you hearing from buyers?”
Them: “None, actually. But that’s due to me not having any conversations with buyers/sellers to have objections to overcome.”
The home search stops with the online mtg calculator.
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Condo Approvals are getting...fun. Have you ever reviewed a home inspection report? It mostly tells you that the house is falling apart, even when the home is perfect. They take such minor items and say, "Should be repaired. Possible safety hazard."
Lenders now review Reserve
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Homebuyers and Realtors often believe the Fed Meeting is a catalyst for mortgage rates dropping. The reality is, by the time the Fed makes a move, the market has already priced that in...and then some! Today, the 2-Yr UST is a full 2% lower than the FFR. Mortgage Rates are
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@unusual_whales
Portnoy must be my spirit animal. I thought I was the only one alive with such luck.
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For the fun of it, I spent about 30 min today searching up all the Instagram
#Mortgage
Influencers…fancy videos, lots of hacks and tricks, flashy editing. I then looked up their 24 month volume.
They all apparently went to the school of “Fake it ‘till you make it!”
Shocking
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A Refinance Story:
A homeowner requests a quote. It goes like this, "I have a loan for $500k for a home I bought last September. I only put 5% down but it appreciated a little based on Zillow and Redfin. I only put 5% down when I purchased it. I'm currently at 7.375%."
So many
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@greg_price11
I hate politics. The overreach in trying to support narratives is the problem within this discussion. Legit issues exist in sports. Woman’s rights now appears as dead as the me-too movement.
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@StealthQE4
I’m not going to lie, I want to see a healthy amount of pain passed through the industry for both mortgage and real estate. We are not doctors, lawyers, we don’t need big $ degrees yet most made more than the super skilled. Time to learn some life lessons…
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Quoting a fair amount of 7% rates this weekend…just a few weeks ago, I was quoting a bunch of high 5’s to low 6’s.
This hasn’t been felt in the market just yet…I’m curious to see how existing home sales hold up in the coming weeks w these rates.
#housing
#mortgagerates
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@WomenBeingAwful
100% Win
Aging gracefully is true beauty. The new overdone features, stretched and frozen faces with bug eyes is not nearly as attractive as many women believe.
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@jordanbpeterson
@sciam
I 100% agree. I have 2 teenage girls & competing in sports has helped shape their confidence and motivation in life. If you take that away through unfair competition, it will be devastating to their futures as woman leaders. You will never convince me otherwise.
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@unusual_whales
Yet another sign pointing to a robust economy driven by the “haves” at the expense of absolutely crushing the “have nots”…
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@unusual_whales
I’ve been saying this for a while but everyone yells at me when I say you can’t compare median income to median prices because it’s not the median income buyer buying right now. It’s the high income wage earner buying median prices.
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There is a lot going on in
#mortgage
these days. Many people seem to be exiting or preparing to exit…banks, big correspondents, etc.
We are finally at that point where cracks start breaking!!
(I’m glad to see it happening…)
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A buyer just got under contract. Given that rates spiked, they shopped around. To their surprise, my rate was better than their two-week-old quote. Why?
Because their loan officer was an idiot. It's that simple. $200k total income: $120k base pay and $80k consistent commission.
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Judged by the number of calls and texts I received yesterday, this statement couldn’t be more accurate.
Biggest Real Estate benefit of the Fed cutting rates is the public will then believe rates are lower.
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Ouch - I just received my home insurance renewal and the premium increased 33%. I'll be spending a few days shopping around and will circle back on whether this is just a one-off company pushing boundaries or the new norm. I'm in Maryland which has been relatively stable w/ HOI.
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The games played in
#realestate
Client lost a bid with 7 competing offers. They did a pre-offer home inspection and waived all contingencies. (It was done responsibly). They were told, “You weren’t highest and best.”
This morning, LA called back, “you can have the house with
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If only homebuyers understood the real cost of those “discounts” they are offered.
As an example, Rocket gives a 1.5% credit if you use a realtor in their network, the title company and of course, them for the loan.
$500k loan - buyer sees $7,500.
The Real Problem:
1. In
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“Nobody can afford
#housing
at these prices!!” they say…
“Sorry, your clients offer wasn’t accepted. We had 8 other offers and yours wasn’t the highest and best.”
Without economic stress, aka job loss, the reduced demand is still enough to keep upward pressure on values.
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@unusual_whales
Sounds more like a hostage negotiation. “I know you have me an extra Trillion a few months ago, but I demand more now or the woman and children will be punished.”
It’s almost comical now, how bad we are at budgeting and spending.
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The difference between the housing market today and the one we experienced in the spring 2023 is everyone now believes rates will be higher for longer. The "I can just refinance later" discussion is no longer mentioned in conversations...if it is, it's "...in 3-4 years."
Middle class homebuyers are taking on $7,000 mortgages thinking they can ‘always refinance when rates come down in the future’
Here's my Q&A with
@AdvisorJohn
🏠
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#MortgageRates
hit another yet another high today. Loan Pricing is difficult to explain and understand. Here are a few examples of quotes homebuyers will be seeing today. I will use "Best Efforts" pricing with a 250 bps profit objective for the originating company.
🧵
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Ouch. I just quoted a 704 Credit Score, Move-Up Buyer, 15% Down Condo...
7.875% Charging One Point
FHFA's new pricing adjustments make this structure about .50% higher than it used to be.
(Total Lender Comp = 200 bps)
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Demoralized: Having lost your confidence, enthusiasm, and hope.
Over the past few weeks, I've had many conversations with top, experienced, ethical, perennially high-producing, middle-aged loan officers around the country who feel completely demoralized in business.
As I dig
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Housing is truly frozen. It’s become a luxury item at this stage. We need a few years for incomes to catch up, rates to fall, or prices to drop…or some combination of all to bring unit sales back to anything normal.
Goldman Sachs chief economist thinks housing affordability is so strained that existing home sales will remain suppressed through 2026
My latest for
@ResidentialClub
👇
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@benshapiro
There’s a lot of money and wealth created by fattening up our population, and then keeping them alive for longer.
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@Riley_Gaines_
@TPUSA
You are 100% correct. People are afraid of the backlash. No sane, rational person believes men in woman’s sports is fair. Unless of course, it’s a Co-Ed league, where they know the rules include both male and female. Female sports are for real females. It’s that simple.
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I'm seeing more and more condos in DC selling for prices not seen since the mid-2010s. This condo sold for $522k in Aug of 2014. Currently listed for $534k.
There are many reasons to explain this: rates, affordability, WFH, safety concerns, small business closures, new
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This weekend, I was going over a credit report with a client. They had a credit card payment which was almost $600 on a $15k balance. The borrower said, "But that's zero interest and no payments." They called back today and said, "Ouch, that is the new payment. The zero-interest
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@CollinRugg
@Th_Midwesterner
I was literally just talking to my wife about this. Approx 70% of my friends are liberal. (Product of where I live) but what annoys me most is the middle aged, white, social justice warrior liberal. I find most of their behaviors to be mostly 100% attention seeking.
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I've been helping people buy homes in DC for the past 13 years. Over that time, I've met quite a few extremely loyal DC residents. "I will not move no matter what. I love this city" they said. They now call to move their family out of the city. Wake up
#DC
...do something about
I’ve lived in DC a long time. I experienced the late 80s and 90s here first hand. The violence and paralysis of Bowser, much of the city council, and MPD is beginning to feel like that era. Curious
@tomsherwood
if I’m over-reacting? Here’s my case: 1/
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Now, the recap and the full story.
This loan was with one of my Veteran clients who purchased a condo in July 2023. Their final loan amount was $437,700 financed with a rate of 5.75%.
This new offering would provide this Veteran a loan for $439,185.
Think about that for a
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@cryptodoj
@FreemanBCP
@icons_women
There shouldn't be a third division, those boys can race in the JV heat where they belong. Boycotting is the only way out of this madness. I'm so sick of this movement in sports protecting the .01% at the expense of damaging confidence and fairness in the other 99.99%.
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Current homeowners are seeing their mortgage payments jump due to higher property tax & insurance bills. In some cases, it's from a reassessment tied to increases in property values.
But what if I told you many are simply a result of an error during the purchase process?
1/n
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"You can just rent for a year and sit out of this market until things calm down," they say.
I spent time looking for rentals in the desirable neighborhoods where someone raising a family would want to be...safety, schools, parks, etc.
Yet, there are no rentals there.
#DMV
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Serious question. Where did they go?
I remember a year ago seeing all the “Date The Rate”” content from Instafamous Realtors & LO’s. One day, they will be right. But, this should be a lesson for
#homebuyers
to realize the difference between being “sold” and being advised.
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