Adam Back
@adam3us
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cypherpunk, cryptographer, privacy/ecash, inventor hashcash (used in Bitcoin mining) PhD Comp Sci Co-Founder/CEO
Malta 🇲🇹
Joined November 2010
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you can't stop JPEGs on bitcoin. complaining will only make them do it more. trying to stop them and they'll do it in worse ways. the high fees drive adoption of layer2 and force innovation. so relax and build things.
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@elonmusk
@itsALLrisky
that's not how any of this works,
@elonmusk
would be like someone wading into spaceX with ideas for a cuboid rocket fueled by water.
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$100k by halving day. people starting to believe.
bears, leveraged shorts rekt, scared-off, profit take limit orders moved upwards or just deleted to wait-and-see; OTC desks out of coins, daily $500m / 10k BTC ETF buy walls. this can gap upwards fast.
51 days to go.
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hard money inherently requires an unavoidable production cost; proof of work is fundamental. people value gold as hard money, because it is scarce. and the scarcity inherently means there must be a production cost for more units. so it is with
#bitcoin
, digital gold requires PoW.
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and so it begins!
@BlackRock
to buy
#Bitcoin
ETFs through its $36b Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.
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Bitcoin tapped $73k tuesday. No one said anything. Spent much of wednesday above $73k. I think the reason things are muted is that $100k seems way overdue, for a few years now, so there's not much bull market euphoria as the $1-5k green candles scroll by. Just tick tock $100k.
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@yegg
just so you understand, this is not a good look for
@DuckDuckGo
which was marketed as pro-privacy and no political tweaking. you can be anti Ukraine invasion without attempting to censoring/filter out information. the answer to bad info is more info. be better.
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reminder, zoom out. prior bull runs had half a dozen -30% draw downs too. we're at about -26% (-27% earlier).
in fact if anything, recent draw-downs seem to be less deep, but people forget the normal bull market pattern. don't panic, buy the dip. or buy a bit of $CMSTR with
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Hong Kong
#bitcoin
ETFs market open in 3hours. in kind entry and exit (deposit Bitcoin) so no artificial capital gains tax hit. Another timezone and market to get a bit closer to 24x7 spot market. Let's see how the inflows go. No $GBTC analog, no bankruptcy selling in HKG.
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early this year i was curious of the claim "bitcoin 2x's per year on average". it checks: the decade jan 2013 - dec 2022
#bitcoin
went up 2.036x/year (1200x in a decade). if that continues we'll cross $10mil/BTC and $200 tril market cap by end of next 2 halvenings, about 9 years.
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"how do you know it's going to stop at 21million"
math!
Σ₀ 1/2^n=2
so 210,000 x 50 x Σ1/2^n = 21 million.
QED
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and so it begins!
@Fidelity
putting respectively 1% (conservative), 2.5% (balanced) and 3.1% (aggressive)
#bitcoin
via their $FBTC ETF in general managed fund "all in one ETF"
Fidelity has a 1-3% bitcoin allocation in their "All-in-One" asset allocation funds in Canada, using spot bitcoin ETFs. The "Conservative" version is posted below.
When and if this become the norm for portfolios in the US, wow...
@scottmelker
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note how this works is $MSTR sold $610m new shares at the market (diluting existing shareholders % ownership), but it uses the proceeds to buy BTC and in fact again BTC/share ratio increased. the net effect is about 1.4% anti-dilutive in
#bitcoin
/share.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for ~$615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per
#bitcoin
. As of 12/26/23,
@MicroStrategy
now hodls 189,150 $BTC acquired for ~$5.9 billion at an average price of $31,168 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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here's a thought:
@100trillionUSD
's stock-to-flow model, is an Asimov psychohistory formula predicting broadly bitcoin adoption, by a large number of people adopting
#bitcoin
. and bitcoin itself is the mission driver for a shift to a new foundation, with the fiat empire crumbling
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@ThierryBreton
@eu2023es
@NadiaCalvino
@JerkovicRomana
@DigitalEU
we don't want their china credit score clone "e-id". fuck that dystopian crap.
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@brian_armstrong
do something about
@coinbase
"circuit breaker" problem. it's hurting
#bitcoin
the asset class credibility. tradfi probably thinks of that as a bitcoin problem vs a coinbase years recurring problem, this is getting old.
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It's genuinely surprising, but by all evidence it appears very hard to significantly improve
#bitcoin
's fundamental design. most tradeoffs improving aspects make other properties worse. by curious happenstance bitcoin exists in a narrow optima in the near infinite design space.
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Humanity is at a tipping point. One path leads to dystopia, digital dark-ages, neo-feudalism of well-meaning, but economically and socially confused plutocrats.
#bitcoin
is the main ray of light, a way to opt out of this central pllanner, global surveillance state hell-scape.
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@AltcoinDailyio
@IOHK_Charles
it's very simple: Bitcoin did not do an ICO, most people thought it had no value, it was mined from zero, it is decentralised, there is no CEO, ICO warchested "foundation", incorporation etc. so cardano, eth etc clearly pas howey, Bitcoin is a commodity and does not
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what kind of idiot would be selling at $71k at this stage in the market 🤣 zoom out and look at the 4 year cycle make the previous look like a blip.
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@elonmusk
Doge is years unmaintained, a literal joke copy of outdated version of bitcoin with long known vulnerabilities. Factually
#Bitcoin
doesn't consume incremental power per transaction. And has layer2s like lightning and
@Liquid_BTC
which amplify capabilities.
How is Bitcoin scaling?
Our new article compares two different, but complementary, layer-2 solutions for Bitcoin: the Lightning Network and the Liquid Network.
Here's a brief summary of their differences👇🧵
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So tradfi let the
#bitcoin
apex predator into their china shop, doors open in hours. Supply squeeze, volatility, 24x7, high leverage - will the ETF market makers and APs have enough liquidity or will things get crazy. Everything hits spot in a supply squeeze. And spot is thin.
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2014
@blockstream
adds bitcoin treasury
2019
@MicroStrategy
adds BTC public market treasury
2021 El Salvador 🇸🇻 adds
#bitcoin
sovereign treasury.
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the bet is on🚀: i bet
#bitcoin
reaches or exceeds $100k between now and halving (31st Mar 2024) with
@vikingobitcoin9
1million sats to the winner.
@Vikingobitcoin9
@Bitcoinschurch
@hodlorado
@SatoshiDeniz
so >= $100k by 31st mar 2024 midnight Zulu or you win right. how many sats?
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Ha this Hayek quote is on video "don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, we can't take it violently out of the hands of govt, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop"
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asset price inflation is double digit, driven by M2 monetary expansion, with 40% of USD printed in the last 18months. now for US taxes, they want to tax the unrealized "gain" arising from asset price increases. ie taxing inflation, which is itself a disguised tax. inflation ^2.
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1st oct 2021
#bitcoin
crossed $47k like yesterday, then on it's way to the $69k ATH. that run-up took 41 days. there are 70 days to the halving. just another data point for what it looks like, and how we may yet get a new ATH or even $100k before the halvening.
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eventually the bears get exhausted, run out of coins to sell. then fundamentals, ETF demand, halving supply shock effects 🟩 will be felt in full force, plus some reflexivity, momentum tradfi brokers & advisors calling their clients, and FOMO buys from those "waiting for a dip"
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@vydamo_
@JanWues
@dtrain22k
i dunno i just saved fugly-ape.jpg seems to work. the rest appears to be a delusion in your head.
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@vydamo_
@JanWues
@dtrain22k
This is the internet, it's a JPEG. Internet physics for decades has said you can right click save, reuse, meme etc. this is the way it works.
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You can't defeat
#bitcoin
because it is more than code. The anti-fragility is the tech teams, the engineers, the protocol experts who adapt to and fight off any and all attacks. but most fearsome of all, powering the reactive defense mechanisms, is the activist investors.
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@elonmusk
@TheRealShifo
you have a typo...
#bitcoin
not crypto.
hard money vs casino market hypothesis.
(not memecoins either)
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in-short:
@paypal
already exists.
@elonmusk
@itsALLrisky
The world needs a decentralized, secure, deflationary store of value like
#Bitcoin
much more than it needs the more centralized, less secure, inflationary medium of exchange that you describe above.
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