Acca Ninja
@AccaNinja
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Formerly a football acca picker turned horse racing lay man using data driven strategies. The data don’t lie! Will regularly post PnL to prove it (to myself!)
United Kingdom
Joined December 2016
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The power of
@fbd_rbd
data.
Yesterday out of 9 lay selections, only 1 horse placed, average BSP of lays 5.75 for +448
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Best day so far with the data driven lay system.
Massive profit laying Insanity in the 12:30 at Market Rasen.
Thank you
@fbd_rbd
for providing the data that turned a theory into hard cash.
For balance, my biggest drawdown has been £-408.89; exactly one month ago today,
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Selections: 58
1st Place Finish: 1
S/R: 98.3%
PnL: £2,137.03
ROI: 22.6%
*Plus £14.66 from a strategy in testing
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@AndyGoode10
Wind your neck in fella. Don’t be controversial for controversial’s sake. You’re better than this, but if you can’t see that; then maybe you’re not?
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Decent day today, good selection of lays mined from the data supplied by
@fbd_rbd
£200 more left on the table when I missed getting the lay on for a favourite.
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🚨🚨Monthly Wrap!🚨🚨
January '24 Results
Lay selections: 249
1st places: 36 👎
S/R: 85.55%
PnL: £850.81
All selections sourced from
@fbd_rbd
data.
The answers are in the data, you just need to know what questions to ask!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Chugging along! 🚂
Selections: 78
1st Place Finish: 7
S/R: 91.03%
PnL: £995.24
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Yesterday was the best day so far for the lay system I devised using
@fbd_rbd
data. Tomorrow will be the one month mark for the system that I have enhanced over that time. Currently it’s running at a small loss, but the recent tweaks are encouraging
as seen below.
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Great start to the week!
The lay system selected 13 horses, not one of them managed to place. +402 🤝
and....an IRE place lay system I'm trialling returned +242 on 3 selections
@fbd_rbd
data is a gold mine!
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🚨🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, started 10/10/23
A great week was clipped yesterday as I mistakenly laid 2 horses outside the criteria losing £420
Check your selections!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Decent week
Selections: 73
1st Place Finish: 9
S/R: 87.7%
PnL: £797.28
*Additional £272.70 from a strategy in testing
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I see a lot of posts on here when people have an issue with a service or product. I want to buck that trend, and call out good service when I experience it.
@fbd_rbd
data service and price point are both 5⭐️in my opinion. I was adrift on the exchanges before I found them.
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Steady...
Selections: 38
1st Place Finish: 7
S/R: 81.6%
PnL: £205.73
*Additional £85.18 from a strategy in testing
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@TradingStealth
As it happened I was a hero! Thanks for the vibes, keep 'em coming 🤝
And big thanks to
@fbd_rbd
for providing the data.
The data don't lie!
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🚨🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, from 10/10/23
Weekly Highlights:
PnL: £913.78
Lays: 52 ROI: 9.62%
Best Lay: Classic Getaway @ 1.48 BSP Tramore 14:15 1/1/24
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Stable!
Selections: 54
1st Place Finish: 8
S/R: 85.19%
Avg. BSP: 6.85
PnL: £135.73
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🚨🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, started 10/10/23
In all the excitement yesterday I forgot to post this. An abbreviated week for the Christmas break, but a profit!
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🚨🚨Monthly Wrap🚨🚨
Shocking end to the month. The Ireland cards destroyed the monthly return in the last 4 days.
Selections: 300
1st Place Finish: 40
S/R: 86.67%
PnL*: £1,354.35
*Additional -£33.84 from test strategy
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The system selected 23 lays pre-race this morning. At post time 19 of them were still valid selections; so it's been the busiest day to date. 1 outright winner which took £208 out of the total; but very happy with the strategy's total return today of £465. 🤝
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Happier!
Selections: 59
1st Place Finish: 6
S/R: 89.83%
PnL: £885.74
*+£67.94 from test strategy
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Heating up! 🔥
Selections: 70
1st Place Finish: 7
S/R: 90.00%
PnL: £1,151.48
* Additional -£16.00 from test strategy
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23*
Much better
Selections: 42
1st Place Finish: 3
S/R: 92.9%
PnL: £563.08
*-£171.00 carried over from Nightingale 1.0
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Steady!
Selections: 72
1st Place Finish: 11
S/R: 86.12%
Avg. BSP: 8.43
PnL: £182.05*
*£13.61 from test strategy
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🚨🚨Monthly Wrap🚨🚨
Nightingale Feb '24 results
Selections: 221
1st Place: 39
S/R: 82.36%
PnL: £280.54
ROI: 0.73%
*Additional £116.01 from test strategy
Highs and lows this month but still profitable. All data sourced using the fantastic service provided by
@fbd_rbd
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, from 10/10/23
Not my best week.
46 lay selections BUT 12 1st place finishers for a loss of £1,109.49
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Steady!
Selections: 79
1st Place Finish: 11
S/R: 86.08%
PnL: £335.32
* Additional -£25.89 from test strategy
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November halfway transparency post. Still happy with the data driven lay strategy using
@fbd_rbd
data. Decent return this month so far, also added lifetime to date performance chart. The data don't lie!
#DataAnalytics
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Yesterday was a Rugby day, so I set my bets and went out. Was very happy to come back in the early hours to see this. Nightingale doing her thing! 🤝
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Laying done for the day ✅
Christmas shopping all done ✅
Thanks
@fbd_rbd
for paying for my kid's presents!
🎁🎁🎁
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🚨🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, started 10/10/23
A week of 2 halves.
Mon-Wed Hero +£1,038
Thur-Sat Zero -£1,244
Sun +£414
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Nightingale weighed in at +1,109
Thank you Dundalk!
Best day to date by far! Definitely taken the edge off what was shaping up to be a challenging week.
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, from 10/10/23
Much better week
Selections: 69
1st Place Finish: 6
S/R: 91.3%
PnL: £943.55
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Nightingale on fire again today. 🔥🔥🔥
Still have 2 horses to run, so not celebrating yet.
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23*
Cooking
Selections: 32
1st Place Finish: 2
S/R: 93.75%
PnL: £748.77
*-£171.00 carried over from Nightingale 1.0
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Nov '23 Report
Using
@fbd_rbd
data to design a lay & place lay strategy for horses. Nov was first full month; for a change a new strategy didn't cost me! ROI of 1.74% for the month across 172 bets. 🤝
#datadontlie
Execution can get better,
Overall chart is from 10 Oct '23
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Results table since I revamped Nightingale, launching version 2.0 just under two months ago. The answers are the data supplied by
@fbd_rbd
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Monday accountability post!
Using
@fbd_rbd
data to devise horse racing lay strategy. No Betfair screenshot as my PnL there is polluted with other strategy's performance I'm currently testing. So... MTD PnL and Lifetime Chart PnL, started Oct 10th 2023.
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Monday Morning Accountability Post!
1) Get
@fbd_rbd
data
2) Put data through sausage machine
3) Harvest selections
4) Execute lay bets
5) Post outcomes
Decent month so far, and the lifetime performance chart has turned nicely.
#TrustTheProcess
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post!🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL and lifetime chart, from 10/10/23
Rough week. 51 lay selections BUT 9 1st place finishers for a loss of £511.95
*Betfair screenshot polluted with golf bets.
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Very happy with Nightingale this evening. 5 lay selections, a couple of them placed, but at short odds BSP (btwn 3.0 and 4.6) it produced a stress free best return of the month. Today's ROI was an eyewatering 42.61%
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I've closed out Nightingale and refined the strategy relaunched Nightingale 2.0 this week. I've carried over £171.00 of losses into the Nightingale 2.0 chart. The goal is to reduce the volatility experienced by Nightingale.
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Always exciting to see the
@fbd_rbd
data dashboard with a new year on it. Have a great 2024 everyone!
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Absolutely smoked today, and the last two days as well. It's all part of the journey.
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#FollowFriday
- is this still a thing?
@fbd_rbd
- the data source
@RoddersTrades1
- football layman
@TradingStealth
- man on a mission
@JedL2b
- supportive and responsive community member
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Roadblock!🚧
Selections: 57
1st Place Finish: 13
S/R: 77.2%
Avg. BSP: 8.15
PnL: -£1,143,66
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Steadier
Selections: 58
1st Place Finish: 10
S/R: 82.8%
PnL: £238.33
*Additional -£189.18 from test strategy
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Does anyone else think it would be a good innovation for Betfair to allow the creation of sub-accounts?
I want to allocate my bank roll to different strategies rather than have the net result in one co-mingled high level account.
#Betfair
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Off to Windsor for the day today, trying to make the most of the sunshine! Lay bets are loaded up, a true set and forget day for me. Good luck everyone!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Heating up
Selections: 63
1st Place Finish: 5
S/R: 92.1%
PnL: £1,266.96
*Additional -£8.86 from test strategy
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The system has selected 12 lays today, the majority of them are short priced. By the end of the day I'll either be a hero, or a zero!
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Nightingale 2.0 has been running since 25th March using data from
@fbd_rbd
Here is the results table over that period. Happy to take any questions, but the main takeaway is that the answers are in the data.
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Why am I posting a £400 loss from a month ago?
1) I'm not only a 'sing when yer winning' acct.
2) Nov 7th return was the catalyst to iterate my strategy
3) Losing is learning - it's essentially a fully paid for lesson!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Human Errors!
Selections: 73
1st Place Finish: 11
S/R: 84.94%
Avg. BSP: 9.73
PnL: -£501.37*
*-£15.00 from test strategy
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🚨🚨Monthly Recap🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last month's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Roundtrip!
Selections: 302
1st Place Finish: 42
S/R: 86.1%
Avg. BSP: 8.97
PnL: £13.73*
*-£283.22 from test strategy
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🚨🚨🚨Monday accountability post! 🚨🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. MTD PnL for Dec and Lifetime Chart PnL, started Oct 10th 2023. It's been a challenging start to the month!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Rethink needed
Selections: 67
1st Place Finish: 17
S/R: 74.6%
PnL: -£2,135.12
*Additional -£95.07 test strategy
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Only 2 lays today, both successes. I managed to make back £100 of yesterday's £420 mistake.
I'm being patient and allowing the system to get my error lay losses back.
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Original Nightingale was split into 8 sectors (see image 10-Oct-23 to 24-Mar-24 ), some more profitable than others; the selection criteria were too lose in retrospect. Launched Nightingale 2.0 much tighter criteria and hopefully less volatility in week to week results.
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Decent way to end the week. The system didn't put a foot wrong today. I'm celebrating it, because it's not always this way...I remember mid-January!
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I've devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23
Rocky!
Selections: 57
1st Place Finish: 18
S/R: 68.4%
PnL: -£1,796.39
ROI: -17.9%
*-£13.72 from test strategy
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When analyzing
@fbd_rbd
data I take the reverse Moneyball approach.
Parroting my version of the scene where Peter Brand repeats to Billy Beane “He gets on base”; I study the data and to the question “what does the horse do?” I respond “It doesn’t win” 🤣🤣
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Just ended 30 day trial run of my system devised with
@fbd_rbd
data. In hindsight it probably wasn’t ready to go live when it did. I made a some enhancements over the period. Can you see from graph when I deployed the changes!?
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Nightingale has 6 selections today. Only had 1 yesterday for a £210 loss, so no chance to bounce back until today. Good luck 🙏
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Just want to wish everyone in the betting community, regardless of your sport of choice, or whether you're a backer or layer, a very Merry Christmas!
🎁🎁🎁🎄🎁🎁🎁
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🚨🚨Monday Accountability Post🚨🚨
Using
@fbd_rbd
data I devised a horse racing lay strategy. Last week's PnL + lifetime chart from 10/10/23*
£420 human error loss 👎
Selections: 68
1st Place Finish: 11
S/R: 83.83%
PnL: -£425.60
*-£171.00 carried over from Nightingale 1.0
0
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I adopted this concept from
@betangel
; adding a trendline on a chart of your strat's returns is a reminder of the inherent variability in any strat. It helps rationalize winning/losing streaks, and affirm the strat is long a term winner if sloping from bottom left to top right
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@fbd_rbd
Starting a new horse racing lay system using your data, that I put into production today. It backtested well using over 2.5 years of data, so let’s see. 1 for 1 so far!
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Scrappy old day so far. 6 lays +94; 3 lays to go.
It's been tough because a couple of the horses so far have been flirting with my BSP cut-off at 20.0
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Just passed 210 lays for the system.
Ran statistical relevance analysis on the 210 lays:
Yield/ROI = 5.60%
Average Odds = 1.16
p-value = 0.64%
1-in-x probability = 155
Things are going in the right direction, this is very encouraging.
The data don't lie!
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Why did I build a system for horseracing?
1) There's racing every day (almost!)
2) There is plenty of data available
3) (Most importantly) I have no clue about racing, so no legacy biases for horses/jockeys/trainers; I can literally follow the data unencumbered by 'feelings'
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@FHG_Master
@fbd_rbd
Couldn’t agree more.
@fbd_rbd
provide that and supplement it with video content to kick start anyone’s journey. It’s then up to the individual to use the data and develop concepts that fit their own risk profile and betting agenda. 👍🏻
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Whenever my lay strategy has a bad day, I take a moment to look at this chart back-testing 30 month's of data encompassing around 6,000 bets with a p-value of 0.08%. It provides perspective that success is earned over time.
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@RoddersTrades1
I've only been running the system since October, when I came across
@fbd_rbd
data, it really changed my outlook, and approach to horse race betting.
I don't want to spoil the surprise as the P/L will be on the chart in the morning : )
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Just been chatting with
@lewis_scutt
about p-value, so decided to run statistical relevance on Nightingale.
p-value definitely moving in the right direction, I'm very encouraged.
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Nightingale 2.0 has ZERO selections at the two meets today. Might use the time to tweak and refine instead.
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Going to refine Nightingale selection process at the end of the month.
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The system has picked out 10 lay selections today. Not expecting the fireworks of yesterday's return, but lets see.
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What I really embrace about the sports betting scene, is that not a day goes by without me learning something about the data, execution, strategy tweaks etc. That constant learning is a great stimulant.
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Today my lay system passed £100,000 worth of lay liabilities since October last year...and I haven't lost my shirt! It's a milestone of sorts 🤝
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@fbd_rbd
@RoddersTrades1
It’s been a great venue to share knowledge and acquire new knowledge.
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No monthly wrap this month as I refined strategy intra-month. Weekly recap to come.
0
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🚨🚨Monthly Wrap🚨🚨
Not the best month, historically April has been challenging and this year was no different. Maybe a symptom of the jumps to flat transition.
Selections: 211
1st Place Finish: 33
S/R: 84.37%
PnL: -£261.80
*Additional -£185.30 from test strategy
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I'll be glad when the weather stops impacting the schedule. Good luck today everyone.
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@fbd_rbd
This is the video I watched that kicked off my data led lay strategy. I highly recommend watching it.
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Nightingale 2.0 p-value after 320 bets.
Sample size a little small in my opinion but definitely shaping up nicely.
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