Ariel Cohen
@ATCNY
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FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year 2019, Article of the Yr 2020, 9x Nom. Tout Wars Champion. ATC Projections. FanGraphs, CBS, Rotoballer. Host of @Beat_Shift_Pod .
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Joined August 2015
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Pinned Tweet
For a 5th time in a row, the
@ATCProjections
are ranked as the most accurate baseball projections by
@FantasyProsMLB
@FantasyPros
!!!
#ATC
#ATCProjections
🚨2023 Fantasy Baseball Projection Accuracy Leaders 🚨
🥇
@ATCNY
🥈
@DraftBuddy
🥉
@DerekCarty
FULL BREAKDOWN:
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MLB intended to congradulate Angel Hernandez on a fantastic career via telephone.
But he missed the call.
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Pirates are out on Freddie Freeman.
Daniel Vogelbach to Pirates. $1M MLB deal. 2nd year option $1.5M. 400K incentives.
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According to
@fangraphs
, as of the morning of 8/8, the
#Mets
have a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs. No simulation produced a result where the
#Mets
didn't play in the postseason.
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Vinnie Pasquantino (
@VPasquantino
) is a star in the making.
This season, .292/.380/.549 with 6 HR good for a 152 wRC+.
His 152 wRC+ is better than Goldschmidt's 147, Freeman's 139 and Alonso's 138 - and Vinnie has a better K% rate than each of the aforementioned trio (12.3%).
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Steven Kwan is not peak Michael Brantley. It was a great week.
He's Luis Arraez but batting 2nd not 9th.
Half a dozen steals, maybe 8 homers and a ~.295 BA. A decent number of runs for batting in the 2 hole.
Temper expectations.
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1/3
I'm really saddened to hear that the
@ESPN
Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast with hosts
@karabelleric
&
@SultanofStat
is coming to an end. You guys did an amazing job for so many years. Thank you as well
@KyleSoppeESPN
.
I started listening back when
@MatthewBerryTMR
&
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The time now is 12:01 AM in New York on March 30th, 2023.
Today is now Opening Day for Major League baseball 2023.
We are but hours away from games that count.
Let that sink in.
Enjoy the day, and enjoy the season.
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Some 2018 Cy Young thoughts ....
Jacob deGrom had 10 wins in 2018 with an ERA of 1.70
Lucas Giolito had 10 wins in 2018 with an ERA of 6.13
Mets went 14-18 in deGrom's starts
White Sox went 14-18 in Giolito's starts
Do wins matter?
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Opening day!
Heres's my pitching line:
8 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 3 H, 1 IBB, 0 K, W
I went 2 for 4 with a walk and 2 Rs scored.
Great way to start!!
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Finished 2nd place in a local Chess tournament yesterday!!!
About 30 players participated. Won all my games other than the one against the eventual 1st place winner who went undefeated.
What a great Sunday!
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Sometimes the best decisions you make in life are also the easiest.
Married 18 years today, to my beautiful wife Robin.
I'd take here at pick 1.1 every time.
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Can we all make "Gombered" an official fantasy baseball term?
Its where you pick up a pitcher who has been good as of late (despite a few warts), has an upcoming 2-start week with seemingly good matchups ...
... and then he gets shelled for 7+ runs.
Please retweet this!
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Thank you
@StevenACohen2
for making a beautiful sensory nook at
#CitiField
.
My son greatly enjoys this at the
@mets
games!!!
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Public service announcement:
@DerekCarty
's THE BAT / THE BAT X 2023 Projections are now on
@fangraphs
!
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Last weekend before ATC comes out. I spend the long weekend (off tomorrow for MLK Jr. Day) cleaning everything up and making sure we are ready for production!
I am so excited to have the honor of having ATC published once again!
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3/3
Both
@karabelleric
&
@SultanofStat
have carried the torch, and I'm so sad to hear that the show will be no more. Thank you again for many years of fantastic listening and advice.
And the best theme music ever.
@KyleSoppeESPN
@MatthewBerryTMR
@NateRavitz
#Hasbrowns
#06010
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If the Dodgers win this year, everyone will say ... "Well, guess the Dodgers bought the ring"
If the Dodgers lose this year, everyone will say ... "Look at that - $1b, and that still doesn't buy a championship"
Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on an 12-year, $325 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
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For the 3rd straight year, the
@ATCProjections
have been dubbed as the most accurate baseball projections by
@FantasyPros
.
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Folks, I've been getting a number of comments about my 2nd round Salvador Perez selection in
#RazzSlam
, that it is way too early for a catcher.
It is not.
This is a best ball league, not a roto league. The ADP of Perez in this format is 17.
Always understand the league rules !
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Less than one week now before the first cut of the ATC Projections are released!
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ATC Regressions are now complete!
Formulas are all updated to take into account the 2023 season!
Now onto the fun stuff ...
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Eno was instrumental in getting the
@ATCProjections
up on
@fangraphs
and he essentially launched my endeavor into the fantasy baseball industry.
Plain and simple, I would not be here today without him.
Congrats,
@enosarris
on this well-deserved
@fswa
Hall of Fame honor!
Definitely an old now. An honor, though. An FSWA award (for an article about Kevin Maas, age at level, and boob flashing) gave me my first big break in the business. Pretty cool.
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First game of the softball season today!!!
Here's my pitching line:
5 IP, 4 H, BB, 0 ER (2 R), K, W
I also went 3 for 5 as well batting leadoff.
What a great way to start the season !!!
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Below are the top projected HR hitters according to ATC 2023.
Can you fill in the blanks??
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I can't think of a better way to have spent Father's day than to have played softball with one of my sons, and then to go to Carvel for the end of the season with the team ... followed by a BBQ.
Happy Father's Day all!
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#MLB
has announced that Games 2 & 3 of the ALCS will start at 8:40 PM ET.
Children on the East Coast will NOT be able to watch these game. It is too late.
Shame on MLB for being short-sided and money hungry, instead of thinking long-term to let children view the playoff games.
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So you drafted Mondesi ...
You likely didn't pay that much attention to SB in the rest of your draft. And you couldn't ... because you needed the BA and Power.
This is why players with a high IntraSD (category/profile risk) need to be bought at a discount, NOT at a premium.
The Royals announced Adalberto Mondesi has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right oblique strain. Nicky Lopez has been recalled.
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2/3
&
@NateRavitz
hosted the show. It was my go-to podcast for so many years, and really was one of the reasons why I somehow got into the industry.
From combo meals to the Wandy line to the closer carousel to hashbrowns, and even back to MatthewBerry's love advice.
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Here is a grid of NFBC ADP from the 3rd week of March, with each player's final 2021 roto value.
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With the super bowl over, it is now time for baseball draft season!
ATC Projections will be updated tomorrow!
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If I were MLB, I would move the first 2 weeks of the season to the end of the season immediately. Give the chance to play all 162 games now, with a 2-week delay.
Then reassess about canceling some of the season in a week or two from now.
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This is fantastic.
Every time a kid asked Sergio Romo for an autograph in spring training he asked them to sign his hat first. He wore this to the mound tonight:
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The ATC Projections are now LIVE on
@fangraphs
!!!
New for this year ... ATC now projects ....
.
.
.
WAR
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The first cut of the ATC Projections have been completed!
They should be up on
@fangraphs
in the next day or two.
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🎉ANNOUNCEMENT🥳
I am proud to announce that I will be doing some writing for
@RotoBallerMLB
in 2020!
Check out the
@RotoBaller
site in the meantime for fantastic MLB work, which will include me this year! Subscribe today!
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Thank you to everyone for following the ATC Projections this offseason!
One last 2024 pre-season update will be overnight tonight.
The final pre-season projections of ATC in 2024 will be updated overnight tonight in time for opening day.
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A few thoughts on closers in 2022 drafts.
A) You do NOT want to play the waiver wire during the season for multiple closers. Playing the wire for one is okay, but it gets incresingly tougher to mine for 2 or more mid-season.
Its the same deal with catchers too.
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Folks, I'll be off Twitter for a few days.
Have a great holiday week/weekend!
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Chris Russo retires.
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I am proud to announce that the
@ATCProjections
are now also up on
@RotoWire
!!!
You can find them on the individual player pages at the moment, and there will be more to come soon!
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According to Baseball-Ref, the following are career WARs:
Larry Walker 72.7
Derek Jeter 72.4
Larry Walker had a career .400 OBP with 383 HRs and 230 SB.
He drove in 1311 RBI - which is the same total as Jeter, yet had 4288 AB less than Derek.
Walker is a Hall of Famer.
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4 years in a row !!!
🚨 MOST ACCURATE MLB PROJECTIONS IN 2022 🚨
🏆
@ATCNY
2.
@DerekCarty
T-3.
@MikePodhorzer
T-3.
@FantasyPros
5. Clay Davenport
FULL RANKINGS:
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I am very honored to finish
#1
for the second straight season in the
@FantasyPros
projections accuracy competitions!
MOST ACCURATE FANTASY BASEBALL PROJECTIONS OF 2020
🏆 1.
@ATCNY
2.
@FantasyPros
3.
@DerekCarty
4.
@fangraphs
5.
@steamerpro
Check out the full list of 2020's most accurate
#FantasyBaseball
projection sites – along with category breakdowns – here:
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Here at AL
#LABR
in West Palm Beach Florida.
At First Pitch Florida presented by
@BaseballHQ
.
#FPFLA
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Here are all the 2021 projected 2021 batters that are:
- Below median InterSD
- Below median InterSK
- Below median IntraSD
- Above $10 Value in NFBC format
These hitters present the least measured ATC parameter risk & categorical risk, & have more projections above the ATC avg
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Folks, I am proud to announce that -
The Beat the Shift Podcast is now a part of
@fangraphs
!
Please subscribe to
@Beat_Shift_Pod
for more info!
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👀👀👀
The ATC Projections are ready!
They should be posted on multiple sites later today/tonight.
ATC Day is still set for tomorrow, January 22nd after making sure that everything should be fully up, and any issues resolved.
2024 Draft season can now begin!
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I mean this with extreme excitement:
Happy Opening Day everyone !!!
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TOP 5 MOST ACCURATE FANTASY BASEBALL PROJECTIONS (2019)
🥇 1.
@fangraphs
(ATC)
🥈 2.
@FantasyPros
(Zeile)
🥉 3.
@MikePodhorzer
(Projecting X)
4.
@Razzball
(Site Projections)
5.
@steamerpro
MORE HERE ➡️
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I think we (the fantasy baseball community) needs to give a big thank you to
@JustinMasonFWFB
for creating and running
@TGFBI
each year.
#TGFBI
has been a huge success in each of its first 2 season, and we are all looking forward to its 3rd year.
Congrats and thank you, Justin!
This year we have 390 participants in 26 leagues!
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NFBC ADP Grid (from late March) with associated final accumulated roto values.
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2022 baseball projections prep work has officially started!
Working on the ATC Regressions now for Hitters.
That's where I update the ATC formulae based on incorporating the newest year of data.
ATC is still on track to be released in just about 2 and a half weeks!
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Get ready for the most exciting free agency period in the history of baseball.
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Candidate for this year's Spencer Strider.
And the Dodgers never have pitchers land on the IL ...
Gavin Stone's 8Ks in 3 innings. 😯
That changeup is gonna be a problem.
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At
@espn
, Matthew Berry (
@MatthewBerryTMR
) was 100% Bonafide, 0% Bonifacio.
Congrats Matthew on not just an epic run, but a transformation of an entire industry.
Just about everyone who plays fantasy has been affected by you.
Thus far ...
Can't wait to see what comes next!
So… some personal news: This is my last week at ESPN.
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Thank you to everyone for following the
@ATCProjections
feed this draft season.
I hope that the ATC Projections helped you draft a winning team in 2023!
The
@ATCProjections
have been updated this morning.
The final
@ATCProjections
pre-season update will be overnight tonight - in time for opening day.
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Wow what a pitching night in softball for me.
14 IP, 2 W, 4 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 13 K.
Incredible night for whiffs for me. The Tuesday night team is now 2-0-1 to start the season!!
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