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Alexander Mercouris
@AMercouris
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Editor-in-Chief at @TheDuran_com
London, England
Joined March 2014
Not an expert on Argentinc history but very skeptical that Javier Milei's plan will in the long run be successful or will solve Argentina's long running economic problems In the short term, it may provide a period of stabilisation, and perhaps even fast economic growth as the Argentine economy recovers, if it does lead to a period of price stability, as I suppose is possible. However, over time, or so it seems to me, the problems will grow. (1) USD is the US currency administered by the Fed on behalf of the US. Making another country's currency your currency means that you are hostage to the economic decisions made by the authorities of the other country. (2) Also, over time, this will distort your economy, as you operate a currency that is not adapted to the needs of the economy of your own country. In Argentina's case it would presumably mean that Argentina's exports are re-directed towards the US, whilst Argentina's substantial domestic industries, agriculture, financial system, and other businesses, would be exposed to takeover by US investors. If Milei goes ahead with his privatisation programmes, that would presumably open Argentina's utilities to takeover as well. That in turn would mean that Argentina's agriculture, industries, etc, would increasingly be run for the benefit of US investors, who would shape them accordingly. (3) This kind of economic outcome might be beneficial to a small island type entrepot state. Does it really make sense for a big G20 economy like Argentina? Might it not in time also lead to political tensions with Argentina itself, with people there complaining that the country's independence is being sacrificed? (4) Beyond that, it seems to me that a key problem which Argentina has experienced is that both the Argentinian government and businesses have perennial tendency to overspend and over-borrow, taking out big foreign loans in USD. Is this is not going to make this very tendency worse? If the USD is Argentina's currency, won't it be even easier for Argentine businesses to take out big loans in USD? Might this not aggravate Argentina's problem of over-borrowing, leading to further debt crises? (5) It seems to me that the best recent period in terms of Argentina's economic performance was directly after the last big default, itself the product of a severe debt crisis caused by over-borrowing made possible by a period when the Argentine peso was fixed to the USD. Thereafter, in the aftermath of the default, Argentina's economy grew for a time quite successfully, with inflation under control, because Argentina could not borrow, which meant that spending also had to be kept under control. Is doing the diametric opposite really a good idea? (6) One thing I can definitely say, is that this economic policy, whatever Milei's intentions, is incompatible with BRICS membership. Even if Milei himself were open to change on this, which I doubt, I cannot imagine that the BRICS states would want Argentina to join BRICS whilst it was operating an economic policy like this. (7) BTW, on the topic of BRICS, Milei seems to be very hostile to China (a "Communist country") and Brazil (a long term regional rival, led by someone Milei calls a '"socialist/communist President"). He does not seem to speak of Russia with the same hostility, so perhaps relations with Russia will continue on an even keel. These are my thoughts about Argentina post the elections. I wonder what others think? .
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RT @TheDuranReal: BRICS and Argentine @AMercouris @AXChristoforou
#TheDuran #Argentine #BRICS #JavierMilei #Russia #Algeria
https://t.co/…
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Returning to X after a long absence with this searching discussion of the US's possible responses to Ukraine's failed offensive - with Dimitri Simes Jr. @DimitriASimes @DimitriSimes @RobertKennedyJr
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RT @FaultLinesRadio: ⚡️⚡️ Coming up @7:30am EST, @TheDuran_com will be joining us for an update on UK politics, COVID response and more! #F…
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RT @Consortiumnews: If you read only one article about the Assange hearing. Read this one. LETTER FROM LONDON: The Surreal US Case Against…
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Flynn’s attempt to carry out Trump’s instructions after the election to achieve rapprochement with Russia were what caused his downfall @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
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Trump’s National Security Adviser downfall was engineered in the shadiest of circumstances @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
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Russian Central Bank continues gold purchases to build up reserves and as hedge against geopolitical risks @RussiaFeed_com
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