Alman Helvas
@AHelvas
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Defense Market & Industry Consultant Former Jane's Representative - Indonesia NO QUOTE WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT Wartawan "ZONA JAKARTA" DILARANG KUTIP TANPA IZIN!!
Jakarta Capital Region
Joined February 2019
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The latest development in Jakarta demonstrated that Indonesia preferred to buy F-15EX instead of Type 052. MoD has revoked budget request for destroyer and re-alllocated it for F-15EX program. It's nice move to sacrifice China's Type 052 for US made F-15EX. We call it "Tumbal"!!
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After delay for 36 years, Indonesia will be the next operator of Mirage 2000. Minister of Finance has approved foreign loan request from Ministry of Defense to bring home Mirage 2000 from the Gulf country. Along with Rafale, Mirage 2000 is listed in the 2022 PSP issued recently.
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According to credible source in the Indonesian government, the next batch of Dassault Aviation Rafale acquisition program has received green light. The budget request for additional Rafale in the Green Book has been approved by Minister of Finance and listed in the 2022 PSP.
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Although US has imposed sanction on Belarus, its defense industry still trying to do business here. AGAT and 588 JSC, both are under OFAC sanction list, are presence in the defense show. Which Indonesian entity suddenly would be happy to find their self under OFAC sanction list?
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What Ukraine war lesson learn Indonesia may take? It's about sustainability, about how many munitions at your arsenal. Also, about economic support to war effort. You need allies to win the war, to provide you weapons. You can't win the war with chant "We Are Non-Alignment".
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Indonesian MoD recently requested additional US$6.9 billion foreign loan for some defense articles procurement, including FREMM and F-16. Such requested demonstrated how defense procurement planning isn't mature yet. Will need new Blue Book to meet it.
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Minister of Finance has approved US$1.1 billion loan for Arrowhead 140 frigate program. Now, how about Indonesian shipyard capacity to get the program done? The shipyard has to cope with challenges. Indonesia can't waste US$1.1 billion loan for nothing.
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Streamlining fighter jet type is one of the most difficult jobs in Indonesia. Thanks to Russia aggression of Ukraine, Jakarta forced to cut dependency on Moscow. Indonesia won't buy Russian jet anymore in foreseeable future. Sometime, changes should be driven by external factor.
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Following the achievement of Babcock in Indonesia, Turkey's Dearsan keen to enter the market as well. Dearsan is marketing F-142 frigate here and they are eyeing post 2024 budget. Similar with Arrowhead 140, F-142 is diesel engine driven frigate, equipped with SAM, SSM and CIWS.
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Indonesia needs another US$4.1 billion for Rafale and such request been proposed. Should it approve in 2023 or 2024, Jakarta will bring home all 42 Rafale, and deliver its word to Paris. It's part of US$5 billion foreign loan additional request for defense acquisition till 2024.
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Indonesian MoD proposal to buy F-15EX finance by loan previously proposed for China's used destroyer has now been officially part of the Blue Book. Means no procurement of China's used destroyer. Whether you like it or not, Indonesia needs to maintain bilateral relation with US.
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Indonesia may sign a first batch contract for Rafale in January 2022. It will use 2021 PSP's US$1.1 billion for Interim MRCA program. Indonesia will get 6 Rafale F3 version with first delivery around 36 months after the contract enter effective date. We shall see in next January.
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Indonesia really serious about to purchase F-15EX. Boeing is expecting Indonesia to be operator of that fighter jet. F-15EX fate will be determined by Indonesia-US G-to-G discussion. To make sure about F-15EX, Indonesia should keep it demeanor. Include things related to Russia.
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In order to entice Indonesia to purchase F-15EX, Boeing may set up design center in Indonesia. The design center may run with the Indonesian airframer. To set up design center is part of plan for (indirect) offset to Indonesia. Boeing has suspended its design center in Moscow.
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Most likely French Air & Space Force will deploy another Rafale mission to Indonesia soon. It's a message that Indonesia today is strategic partner for France, include in the defense sector. Rafale deployment heavily related to the status of Indonesia as future Rafale operator.
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US Department of Treasury has imposed financial sanction on State Authority for Military Industry of the Republic of Belarus and JSC 558 Aircraft Repair Plant. JSC 558 ARP is Indonesian partner for Su-27/30 heavy maintenance. How's the future of Indonesian Su-27/30? Bleak!!!
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The Indonesia's allocation of foreign loan for defense procurement program till 2024 has been raised for the third time. Today MoD has to spend US$34.4 billion after the Blue Book's latest iteration approved by another agency. Including for US made F-15EX.
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Today we start to seeing the end of service of Su-27/30 fleet in Indonesian Air Force. It's just a matter of time before all Sukhoi are grounded. Ministry of Finance won't finance defense trade with Russia, includes to buy Sukhoi's spare parts.
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FY2021 and FY2022 were the amazing years for financing defense acquisition program. Minister of Finance issued 5 PSPs in total, the remaining foreign loan allocation is US$6.2 billion. MoD has just requested US$5 billion additional foreign loan allocation.
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In the 2021-2024 timeframe alone, France may earn US$12 billion from Indonesia's defense acquisition spending if Indonesia able to secure the Rafale's third batch fund, awarded defense satellite contract to Airbus and submarine contract to Naval Group.
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It seems Indonesia needs US$9 billion to bring home 36 Boeing made F-15EX. The figure may soar if Jakarta request offset package to Boeing since offset price isn't cover by estimated cost issued by US DSCA. Question is whether Indonesia still has fiscal space for offset or not?
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The contract for six Dassault Aviation Rafale for Indonesia has been signed on last December 2021. Tomorrow event in Jakarta will be ceremonial one. Question is whether Indonesian Minister of Defense will win budget fight for another 30 Rafale or not.
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There are three options for Indonesia to finance F-15EX procurement program. Which one would be choose by Minister of Finance? US FMS credit, US FFB loan or Indonesia's own budget? Does Indonesia's fiscal space still available for F-15EX acquisition?
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Significant progress on Indonesian defense acquisition program may happen this week. If thing happen, it may pave the way to make dream come true on F-15EX. Can't buy weapon without fiscal and political supports. This week and the weeks after are crucial. We shall see very soon.
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Naval Group proposal to win Indonesian US$2.7 billion submarine program includes deep partnership with local shipyard. Other than the submarine will be build here, 30% of contract value will be for local partner. We shall see if MoD interest on the offer.
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How much the price of a weapon system blueprint offered by an overseas firm to Indonesia? According to sources, it's US$38 million. Indonesia want to bargain the price for cheaper one. If it has to pay US$38 million, it will affected program's total cost structure. No free lunch.
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While Indonesian government still negotiating with US government on F-15EX, it seems Lockheed Martin ready to take the opportunity if the negotiation failed. But it will depend on Indonesian government whether still want to purchase F-16 or not. We shall see in the months ahead.
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Indonesia isn't going to be operator of Pohang class corvette. Minister of Finance has denied the request for foreign loan for that used vessel. So that Pohang not listed in the 2022 PSP. We shall see whether Pohang will list in 2023 or 2024 iteration of the Green Book or not.
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Many democratic countries have no issue with advancing national interest to master hi-tech. But for Indonesia, democratic process hasn't contributed much yet on such effort. Short-term political interest has subdued national interest on defense industry.
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It's surprising that Indonesia's program to procure submarine rescue vessel been approved by Minister of Finance. Such program is part of the latest PSP iteration. We shall see which company will be awarded contract by Indonesian government. One of two UK firms or another firm?
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Indonesia has entered a critical phase regarding plan to purchase F-15EX. If Jakarta sign LOA by the end of 2022 or early 2023, it may also signal that Jakarta won't buy F-16 in the future. It's interesting to see competition between Boeing and Lockheed Martin behind the scenes.
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Indonesia expected to have an office in charge of defense technology security soon under MoD. The office will be at directorate general level. If such thing happened, it may help to build confidence for Western countries on Indonesia's capacity to secure sensitive technology.
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It's good move to have Rafale program on the newest Green Book. With proposed US$2.9 billion foreign loan, it's not enough to procure 36 Rafale. Maybe only 10-12. If the first six of Rafale contract effective, follow by another 10-12, Indonesia will only operate 16-18 Rafale.
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If Indonesian variant of Iver Huitfeldt class frigate build with LOA 143,57 m, it will become the most weaponized frigate (exclude FREMM). It will be equipped with MR SAM VLS 3 x 8 cells, LR SAM VLS 4 x 8 cells, LR SSM VLS 2 x 8 cells, Gun 2 x 76 mm, CIWS 35 mm and torpedo.
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After denied by Minister of Finance last year, budget request for Russian made Su-27/30 finally approved this year. Finance by foreign loan, it will extend Su-27/30 service in Indonesia. The program is overhaul. Unlikely overhaul activities will do by Russia. Likely by Ukraine.
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Indonesia expected to import light MALE UAV from Turkey soon. Turkey expected to export MAM-L to Indonesia in near future. These would happen if all things related to contract and loan agreement run well next year. Such equipment will be operated by all military services here.
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Defense acquisition in Indonesia heavily influence by who hold the job of minister of defense. Current minister of defense needs to move forward regarding weapon procurement, i.e to make contract effective and sign new contracts before runs for president.
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Australia and Singapore have master more advance technology compared to Indonesia. But they don't want to develop every weapon system domestically. Indonesia, which master less advance technology compared to these nations, has ambition to product all weapon system domestically.
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has failed to attain its objective. One lesson learn that Indonesia won't take is about comsec. Like Russian Army, Indonesian loves to use unsecured communication network. It would be a miracle if Indonesia take lesson learn from Russian failure.
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If Indonesia get deal with US government on F-15EX acquisition program, does the program include offset? It will depend on negotiation between Indonesian government with Boeing. If Boeing agree for offset, where offset will go? Hope it will go to credible company in the industry.
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Naval Group has offered assistance to Indonesia to help the latter capacity on submarine development through R&D partnership. The ball today is on the hand of Naval Group's partner here. Does Indonesian shipyard ready to do submarine R&D with Naval Group?
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Why there are bunch of people which are paranoid about foreign attack to Indonesia? Because they failed to distinct between capability and intention. Big countries (US, Australia) have military capability to operate across Asia Pacific. But do they have intention to attack us?
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Plan to buy new submarine has been part of the newest version of Blue Book. It's US$2.7 billion. Wait for Green Book and PSP, expect soon. Naval Group so far is the strongest candidate to win the program. The French OEM has plan to develop Li-ion in Indonesia with local firms.
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Driven by Indonesia plan to acquire FREMM, it seems market for gas turbine engine is attracting. Rolls-Royce wants to offer MT30 as solution to meet future Indonesian frigate requirement. MT30 may become competitor for LM2500. If you have big frigate, you need gas turbine engine.
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Most of Chinese made major defense system bought by Indonesia has bad performance. Marine Corps has MLRS and AAG. Navy has ASM. We don't know yet about CH-4B real performance. Why should Jakarta acquire another Chinese made equipment? We're not talking about China's threat yet.
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Indonesia is upgrading its F-16A/B fleet, while C/D may follow by 2024 if government approve foreign loan scheme for that program. A few years ago, Jakarta signed contract to buy AIM-9X from US. Today Indonesia seems want to procure JHMCS. Final say will depend on MoF approval.
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Indonesia has again expressed interest to acquire P-8A Poseidon from US during the visit of the top Indonesian Navy officer to DC recently. One critical factor for Indonesian Navy to make dream come true is whether such aspiration is absorb by government on the Blue Book or not.
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While foreign loan allocation for Indonesian defense acquisition program until FY2024 has received additional US$5 billion, it's still question mark whether Ministry of Finance still have fiscal space for another PSP for FY2023 and FY2024. We shall see.
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Indonesian future defense satellite designed not only for communication, but also for another purpose such as observation. For the communication purpose, most likely it will adopt multiband and not only L-band. Today and future bands are C-band, Ka-band, Ku-band, S-band, X-band.
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No clarity yet whether Indonesia has financial capacity to purchase F-15EX. Due to the price of F-15EX, the chance for Indonesia to buy it is 50:50 at best, but maybe 40:60 for those who has special concern on this matter. It seems total price for F-15EX is above Rafale's price.
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No Japanese made frigate listed on the Blue Book for Ministry of Defense. It means Japanese made frigate is not priority yet. The priority is for Italian made frigate. We shall see how many FREMM may acquire by Indonesia with available budget. Wait for Green Book and PSP soon.
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The contract for construction of 2 Arrowhead 140 for Indonesian Navy has entered effective status since May 2021. Ministry of Defense has paid initial payment to shipbuilder. Schedule for first steel cutting has shifted from August to October 2022. We shall see later about that.
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Indonesia still has aspiration to bring home F-15EX from US. But as of mid-January 2023, no progress made. It seems Jakarta still struggle to find money in order to finance the program. Credible sources have been confirmed that no movement on EX. No movement means no progress.
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South Korean lobbied hard to convince Indonesia to give to them the US$150 million upgrade program of unlicensed copy of U209 class submarine. But the stonewall is in the Ministry of Defense. As long as the minister say no, Indonesia won't waste another US$150 million to DSME.
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There's possibility that Indonesia may acquire new submarines both from Naval Group and TKMS. At the end of the day, it will determine by budget availability. The final say will be in the Ministry of Finance. Budget isn't MoD authority. We shall see development in months ahead.
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Without any solution to solve the problems, Indonesian Su-27/30 fleet may see its end of service in early 2030s. But may be earlier than that. Russian geopolitical maneuver, Western counter-maneuver against Russia and Indonesian incapacitate against CAATSA affected Su-27/30 fate.
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Boeing is keen to find partners in Indonesia related to Jakarta plan to acquire F-15EX. But at the end of the day, it will depend upon Indonesian decision to procure F-15EX or not. Better if Boeing future partnership with Indonesian firms on aerospace beyond F-15EX acquisition.
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Indonesian defense SOE firm should be realistic about to be rank 50 of global defense industry by 2024. The rank only counts defense business line revenue, not combined revenue with commercial business line. DEFEND ID still FAR FAR AWAY to be rank 50.
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US has provided security umbrella to Asia Pacific region since the end of World War II. But US umbrella doesn't mean countries in the region, including Indonesia, not to build capability to defend themself. That's why Indonesia should also buy US made weapons, includes F-15EX.
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Turkey's Roketsan is quite confidence that they will be able to supply their solution for Indonesian variant of Arrowhead 140. Atmaca is Roketsan solution for surface-to-surface missile for Arrowhead 140. Will MBDA challenge Roketsan move with their combat proven Exocet missile?
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In order to encourage more defense cooperation with Indonesia, US Secretary of Defense supposed to be in Jakarta this week. Includes to pave the way for F-15ID acquisition by Indonesia. But Russian invasion of Ukraine made the visit should be postponed for the second time.
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The fate of 6 FREMM contract signed by Indonesia wait for FY2023 or FY2024 for the Green Book and PSP. One lingering question regarding FREMM is whether Indonesia has willingness to operate gas turbine engine or not. Indonesia loves diesel engine, doesn't like gas turbine engine.
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If Minister of Finance approve PSP request for FREMM frigate, it would a progress. Hope offset program goes as planned, which involve two Indonesian firms. One is SOE, the rest is private firm. Better if FREMM construction not taken place in Indonesia since it may pose risk.
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F-15EX price for Indonesia will hike if discussion on LOA is getting longer. The timing for LOA signing will affected final price. There are some reasons for price hike, include production line. Indonesia would get cheaper price if production incorporated with another user order.
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It seems Indonesian plan to procure some major defense articles from France will be finance by French financial institutions. This is the case for Rafale and likely the case for Scorpene as well if Ministry of Defense awarded contract to Naval Group. We shall see later this year.
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One bold message from Indonesian MoD regarding Arrowhead 140 frigate program is no Chinese made material and equipment for the ship. No room available to create what called cost efficiency via buy cheaper material and equipment from China. A business opportunity for European.
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It's useless for Indonesia to acquire F-15EX if it doesn't want to adopt Link 16. CISMOA gave golden opportunity for Jakarta to procure Link 16. But seems there's party in Indonesia still suspicion about Link 16. Is there budget allocation on the Blue Book for F-15EX? So far no!
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Seems Jakarta has changed its mind of F-16. Previously rejected it, today Jakarta is planning to acquire brand new F-16. Is that bad news for F-15EX? We shall see whether government still have fiscal space for F-16. Ceiling for foreign loan allocation has almost hit this year.
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There are two iterations of PSP this year issued by Indonesian Ministry of Finance. One of them worth US$4.4 billion with focus on major weapon systems acquisition programs for Air Force, i.e Rafale and Mirage 2000. No priority for Army and Navy yet.
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To some extent, contract implementation of 42 Rafale from Dassault Aviation by Indonesia may affected Indonesia's status as reliable partner for France in the Indo-Pacific region. France has been disappointed by Australia last year on submarine contract.
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Indonesia is one of France's main defense partner in Indo-Pac. As for defense trade with Paris, Jakarta lagged behind Singapore. Can Indonesia beat Singapore and to be number two after India? It will depend on how MoD deliver it word for 42 Rafale, 2 Scorpene, 2 A400M, 13 GM 400.
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Still denying about how worst Indonesia's defense spending per capita? Here the rank in SEA. Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippine, Cambodia, Myanmar and Indonesia. No available data about Laos. Let's assume Laos is no.10, then Indonesia is no.2 from below.
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Indonesia may sign contract for new submarine in months ahead. It will depend on new budget request and then approval from Minister of Finance. If approve, most likely the budget will go to French shipbuilder since Indonesia still has undelivered promise to France. We shall see.
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As France's strategic partner, what kind of advantages Indonesia may achieve in defense industry? Think beyond the acquisition of Rafale, A400M and (likely) Scorpene. While France ready to help Indonesia in that sector, it will depend on Indonesia whether to move forward or not.
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It seems an Indonesia company still trying to insert its product into South Korea's KF-21 systems. But South Korea still rejected such effort. Seems South Korean need a long time to assess the technical matters. To insert new product in the KF-21 system isn't about plug and play.
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It seems Indonesia won't get any significant direct offset if it decided to acquire F-15EX. Significant direct offset means more money required to pay the offset to Boeing. Don't expect Indonesian firm will get order to manufacture F-15EX components. No free lunch for offset.
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Indonesia and Dassault Aviation are considering available options to move forward with 36 Rafale contract. All options are on the table. It seems both parties want to find solution on financial issue. There's light at the of the tunnel if they can achieve certain agreement soon.
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Indonesia may have opportunity to have a defense equipment with ITAR free soon. Such equipment developed by Western OEM. Not much equipment is ITAR free. It will depend on the Indonesian government whether say yes or no to the offer. We shall see development next year or 2024.
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Indonesia has a fundamental problem on defense force development. It's suffered from suspicious mentality. Such mentality has hindered Indonesia to have a sophisticated and secure equipment. Indonesia wants F-15EX, but suspicion on Link 16. Then EX BVR capability will be useless.
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Despite Indonesian MoD had proposed modernization program of 33 F-16A/B/C/D to Viper equivalent to another agency, it seems program's approval for fund should wait for some time. Maybe the fund will be available in 2023 or 2024. We shall see in the Green Book's next iteration.
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Will Naval Group able to win Indonesian submarine bid? Will Scorpene to be submarine of choice for Indonesia to resurrect from submarine hollow force? The MoU is going to be sign shortly may pave the way for Naval Group to have footprint on Indonesian naval market. We shall see.
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Singapore's defense spending per capita is slightly above US$2000. Australia's defense spending per capita is above US$1400. Indonesia, a nation which always boasting about its G20 status, has defense spending per capita lesser than US$100. As G20, it's awesome! It's Janes data.
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In order to cope with China's threat in the South China Sea, Indonesia wants to buy more missile for its surface vessels. Instead of to acquire Exocet MM40 Block 3, Jakarta wants to procure China's C-705. Seems the best way to engage Chinese ships is to use Chinese made missiles.
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Indonesia been allowed by US to procure F-15ID. ID stand for Indonesia, but the derision stand for Indonesia Downgrade. Fact is there's kind of qualitative military edge in this region maintained by US. Indonesia can buy F-15 after Singapore and Australia allowed to acquire F-35.
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Even if Indonesian government agree to provide US$100 million or more for rectifying the South Korean made U209 subs, no guarantee that ship will have no repeat problem in the future. According to sources, rectifying program isn't about heavy works like to cut the pressure hull.
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Thanks to Indonesian government to meet its contractual obligation with Dassault Aviation for 6 Rafale, Jakarta may host another visit of French Air and Space Force's Rafale soon. We should wait till coming weeks for final say whether Rafale tour will happen or not. Let's see.
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During New Order era, Indonesia was reliable partner for defense industry cooperation with other countries. It's delivered its obligation. Look at CN235 program. Today, Indonesia is unreliable partner for defense industry cooperation with another country. How can this happen?
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Will Indonesian IFX adopted same electronics systems, including avionics, like the one adopted by ROK KF-21? Or will IFX use different electronics equipment? If the latter happen, it will have big issue related to system's reliability. It may transform IFX into flying test bed.
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Indonesia signed CISMOA since seven years ago. CISMOA is allowing Indonesia to buy high grade defense articles from US, includes secure communication equipment. But Indonesia made no significant progress yet. The main reason is suspicion on US made equipment, includes Link 16.
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Indonesia still wants to purchase FREMM with lesser quantity compared to previous contract with Fincantieri. If Minister of Finance approve the loan, to some extent it will better for Indonesia. With less quantity of FREEM, Indonesian will not bring home Maestrale class frigate.
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It seems Indonesia will have another iteration of the Green Book this year. If it does, it will be the third iteration. Two previous iterations had been followed by PSP issuance. According to sources, the third iteration list may include major defense weapon system fund proposal.
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Rafale, Scorpene, FREMM and another country made equipment are among Indonesia's shopping list which struggle to receive finance this year. If one or some of them don't get PSP this year, there's opportunity for next year. FREMM status will be critical should financing uncertain.
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It seems Indonesia wants to upgrade its F-16A/B to another level after current upgrade. It also want to upgrade its F-16C/D as plan before. The ambition is to upgrade all of F-16s to be Viper equivalent. As long as not adopted Link-16, you can't claim those are Viper equivalent.
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Hoax of the day:
Indonesia has signed contract for A330 MRTT with Airbus and the contract has entered into force.
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Something big happen behind the door and this matter is unprecedented. It's unprecedented because it never happened before. But it's not about upcoming Indonesian election. We shall see whether Indonesia can take advantages from this. We shall see what happen in months ahead.
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The Indonesian MALE UAV program has been killed a few months ago. What kind of lesson learn we can take from that? One of them is all kind of development of weapon system program should 100% belong, finance and manage by Ministry of Defense. Don't give it to another agency.
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While Indonesia wait for delivery of Kaplan MT, Ministry of Defense wants to do repeat order for this tank. The ball today is on other ministries related to national planning and finance. If the budget request approve, it will buy 12 more Kaplan MT and finance by domestic loan.
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While in the last 12 years Indonesia has modernized its forces with new and advance weapon systems, it doesn't follow with "an unwanted war may coming unexpectedly" paradigm. Busy with procuring platform, less care about procuring munitions. Less missiles in the shopping list.
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Contract signing of 12 C-130 CWB replacement between Indonesian MoD and Indonesian airframer today may safe the latter from potential financial trouble in near future. While FNSS and Pindad will sign joint production of amphibious vehicle today, will Marine buy it? We shall see.
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It seems the ceremonial activity for Arrowhead 140 program may take place before the end of this month. We shall see because many aspects affected the ceremonial activity. But more important than ceremonial activity is whether design of Indonesian variant is reliable or not.
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