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LiveLifeWellNC
@30flygirl1
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Psychologist, pilot, adventurer, veteran, investor, living life well and helping others do the same. Save in Bitcoin. Invest in MSTR.
Joined July 2021
A few lessons learned from my first options experiment: 1.) Long term holders add little volatility to price action. 2.) Markets are moved by rational people doing rational things (making and taking profits). These rational people are mostly experienced market makers manipulating traders and retail acting predictably. 3.) Traders and retail rationalize the irrational. Hope, fear, and greed are the main drivers of our behaviors. Yet, these emotions are minimized, discounted, and rationalized away as we defend and pretend our decisions to mostly/solely be rational because of our: - thousands of hours of study and years of experience - technical analysis - knowledge of historical market performance and macro events - scheduled events and what we believe to be a fair and just response in the markets - our positive memories and constant highlighting of past successes 4.) Experienced market makers are masters of taking advantage of this "Crisis of Confidence." This "Crisis of Confidence" leads to the bottom falling out, and keeps us in the bottom for longer unless we learn our lessons. 5.) I believe, this is responsible for more of $MSTR's "confusing" price action over the past four weeks, than the ATM being used aggressively. 6.) People tend to want to blame others rather than ourselves for losses. $MSTR veterans are die-hard Bitcoiners. Yet, rather than losing confidence in their own decision making (which is rational as that would be detrimental to our survival), many lost confidence in our company for accumulating 200,000 bitcoin in four weeks. 7.) Even as an expert in human behavior and a former financial advisor, it is difficult to trade a stock I am emotionally invested in, such as $MSTR. 8.) $MSTR is literally the only stock I'm invested in and the only company I care about. I have less than ZERO interest in any other company. And I only invest in what I understand, and work daily to keep up and learn more so that I fully understand. 9.) However, as my conviction grows, so does my sense of urgency to stack as many shares as possible, and the same with sats in Bitcoin. I truly believe Bitcoin and $MSTR will soon be understood by the masses and valued appropriately. This urgency, being human, all of the positive catalysts coming, our $MSTR echo chamber, and my inexperience and still learning when to exit positions and take profit, made me stay in positions longer than I otherwise would have. I made a few (very small) bets with shorter time preference and higher strike price away from my intended conservative approach to amplifying shares. So today, I'll learn my lessons, exit positions at 100% profit (hopefully) rather than 300-400% profit weeks ago, in order to exercise 9 contracts of my 250 options in my taxable account, and call these "losses of paper profit," tuition. 10.) We have a wonderful core community on X of curious, positive, truth-seeking people who have/had flexible minds willing to challenge the status quo that brought us together. However, our flexible minds might have become inflexible to other possibilities as we grew in conviction, discounted emotions, underestimated market makers, and attached to specific outcomes by specific dates. Many are (likely) right in the trade, but wrong in the timing. Long story, longer: 1.) Most people will do better buying and holding shares of $MSTR and Bitcoin on cold storage. 2.) For those of us in options, most will benefit by making conservative bets (strike prices at the money or slightly out of the money), and with as much time as we can afford. 3.) Options people should consider holding a big, non-negotiable foundation of shares in their portfolio regardless of the desirability of bigger, faster returns. 4.) Stay away from margin, especially if using margin to buy option contracts. 5.) Have a plan to exit positions when you are at significant profit, especially if you are at 1-3x, regardless of all the hype, incoming good things you believe will lead to greater returns, and/or your beliefs that soon people will understand the importance of Bitcoin and $MSTR in transforming our capital markets. Market makers are counting on this, learn to play their game better. We are the tourists in their world, they make the rules. Better to get rich a little bit at a time, than poor all at once. 6.) Do not underestimate global instability and the instability of our US government and the fear of the oligarchy losing control of power. There's plenty we know about that should concern the markets (regime change, drones, censorship, propaganda, divide among the rich and the poor, misappropriation of money, debasement of our dollar, etc.), imagine all that we don't know about and then times that by an order of magnitude. Be sure to have Bitcoin in cold storage. 7.) Stay curious, humble, and truth-seeking. Be careful about broadcasting your huge returns, low cost basis, "expertise," and risky positions, because in "good times" this crisis in confidence is problematic and contagious and will lead to bigger bets and bring many others with you because of hope, fear, and greed. 8.) Keep teaching and learning from each other. Life lived well requires us to be both students and teachers. These roles are interchangeable, fluid and dynamic. Be kind and compassionate, especially to those suffering (which quite honestly is most of us). There's no need to be rude in this community. Bitcoin is hope for a better way of living. Stay cheerful and constructive. If we continue to learn in both good times and bad, we're winners, and we can learn to play this game better. Eventually, with patience and together, all of our portfolios will reflect true freedom.
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I sold two properties years ago, each on a 30 year mortgage with 2.5% and 2.825%, and bought Bitcoin. Those low interest rates can be golden handcuffs leading to indentured servitude locking you into a less profitable deal and/or location.
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@btc_overflow STRK also raised additional capital trading on the open market. It's possible MSTR wasn't ATMing due to the low volume.
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Class Action Lawsuit: It should be legal to opt of paying taxes due to being a conscientious objector, as someone who refuses to participate in funding harmful, criminal, and fraudulent activities due to their religious, moral, or ethical beliefs. @realDonaldTrump @elonmusk
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@pikachustrategy @Cointelegraph I'd like to see Saylor's personal BTC be donated and designated back to MSTR and held in a separate fund to earn dividends for shareholders of 20+ years.
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@ArgenTo46 @elonmusk The uniparty corruption and corporate capture became very clear to the independents and many democrats via the unlawful, unconstitutional, and unethical treatment of MAHA and RFK Jr. And had it not been for X, Trump would have lost, and so would all Americans.
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@TarHeelTapes Fun fact: Dean Smith’s headstone was machine made, bought from China, not a masterpiece, hand carved tribute by a local marble sculptor.
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@elonmusk We need to suspend taxes until our dollars are accounted for and not used for fraud, waste, and evil. A conscientious objector is someone who refuses to participate due to their religious, moral, or ethical beliefs. Harm is being done with taxes paid.
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@DineshDSouza There are plenty of Republicans who participated in this corruption. Audits for all. Any one found violating their ethical, elected duties, and who grossly profited from being "public servants" should be tried and imprisoned in El Salvador compliments of @nayibbukele
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@pikachustrategy I prefer to fly under the radar and offer support to those already leading well and helping others to live life well, like @iameluwa
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@EkeVanVictor Thank you for your kind words. I was fortunate to learn that we are better together than apart, and we have a personal responsibility to find those who can help us do and be better, then and now. This group is doing that for each other. Beautiful, and as life should be.
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@K1ngMalachi @iameluwah Thank you for your voice, Malachi, beautiful, wise, and powerful as are many in this group. Refreshing.
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RT @mtcbtc: Bitcoin wasn’t the first attempt at a digital currency. It was the last one. The one - finally - that worked.
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🚨🇺🇸 DOGE GETS HIGH-TECH SLEEP PODS TO FUEL 24/7 EFFICIENCY DRIVE Eight Sleep's AI-powered Pods arrive at @DOGE headquarters, enabling Elon's team to optimize rest while working around the clock. The $1.94T in federal waste won't cut itself. The smart beds use machine learning to track vital signs and automatically adjust temperature for each sleep stage, achieving 78% accuracy compared to medical-grade EEG. Perfect for power naps between budget cuts. Source:@m_franceschetti @eightsleep @elonmusk
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