Joe Cook-Shugart
@131sports
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Girl Dad. Life insurance actuary by trade. Avid golfer (shaky 11 handicap). Bracketologist and “Best Bets” guide at 1-3-1 Sports. UofM Class of 2012 - Go Blue.
Joined November 2011
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Last Seen Profiles
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When I started Bracketology 11 years ago, my sole focus was accuracy. Then I realized I could distinguish myself from others by providing updates daily.
It’s a lot of work to maintain both (especially with a growing family). Appreciate everyone who has followed for this ride!
The new Bracket Matrix 5-year rankings are here!
@BracketDom
takes over the top spot followed by
@131sports
, this year's champion
@JakeLiker
,
@BracketsYago
, and
@TheRealCSD
to round out the top 5.
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I put together a Paymon Score of 378 this year.
Pending what other bracketologists did, this has an opportunity to be the highest Paymon Score ever.
Thanks to everyone that followed along this season!
I’ll be releasing my “How to Win Your Bracket Pool” analytics article soon!
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Rough early slate at (likely) 3-3. That puts the model at 17-5 for 2024.
If this gets 10 likes, I’ll post some late game leverage opportunities!
BEST BETS (3/22) - Early Games
Colgate/Baylor Under 138.5
SDSU/UAB Over 139.5
Clemson/UNM Under 152.5
Clemson (+2.5)
Colorado (-1)
Colorado/Florida Under 158
Overall 2024 Record: 14-2
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I’m excited to announce that I was ranked the
#1
(tie) most accurate Bracketologist on the internet for the 2017-2018 college basketball season.
Got one of the twitter handles wrong. There is a 4-way tie for matrix champion in 2018. Congrats to
@131sports
,
@crazysportdude
,
@jamesmouton
, and
@MSportsFans
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@Wil__Hunter
I really like (insert team’s leading scorer I was told to reference) from (insert team).
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Now that bracketology has wrapped up, my real passion takes full swing - projecting tournament outcomes!
In the next day or two, I will be releasing bracket simulation results (10,000 sims), tips for winning your bracket pool, and a R64/futures best bets guide. Stay tuned!
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This shit is soooo sooo good. The Big Ten commissioner wants bad things to happen to his conference's biggest brand so his walk-on son can have fun in the locker room.
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@Wil__Hunter
Spartans should put on many additional hats tonight:
- Duquesne (St. Bonnie’s)
- UMass (Saint Louis)
- Wake Forest (G-Tech)
- Nevada (Colorado State)
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“Don’t count out the team alone in first place in the conference!”
I like to argue that Detroit sports reporting isn’t slanted promoting UofM over MSU… then I see this rubbish headline and want to argue against my own previous arguments.
Michigan, Michigan State basketball show why you can't count them out of Big Ten race
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How to Win Your Bracket Pool (2024 Edition)
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Happy to announce I’ve officially joined
@BustingBrackets
as a contributor! No better way to break into extended writing than a game preview featuring my alma mater’s greatest rival, right?
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Ho hum last night. Regression was bound to happen after the hot start. Nevertheless:
BEST BETS (3/23)
Gonzaga/Kansas Under 152.5
Washington State (+6.5)
Oakland (+6.5)
Creighton (-4.5)
Overall 2024 Record: 19-7 (73.1%)
Good to know people are tracking! Never a doubt on the Colorado cover. Here we go:
BEST BETS (3/22) - Late Games
Purdue (-26.5)
Alabama/CofC Under 172.5
JMU/Wisconsin Over 143.5
Utah State (+4)
Overall 2024 Record: 17-5
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Just a status update - looks like this is likely going to be good enough only for 2nd this year!
Someone broke the 380 barrier. Kudos!
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Sorry about the delay with today’s bracket.
Family priorities - I’ll get one out before I go to bed tonight!
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A nonzero amount of folks out here still quoting Lunardi... that’s too many.
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What are you going to do to be less mediocre at bracketology between now and Selection Sunday?
Want to be featured in a Q&A with
@ESPNLunardi
?
Comment below with your college basketball questions and you might get that chance tonight at 8 PM ET 👏 (ESPN+)
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For the second straight year, I remain in 2nd place in the Bracket Matrix rankings.
While admittedly disappointing to fall short of the ultimate goal, the guys around me in the rankings are elite at what they do. Please follow them! The bracketology community is in good hands.
The Bracket Matrix 5-year rankings have been updated for 2024.
@BracketsYago
is now in the top spot followed by
@131sports
,
@BracketDom
,
@Bauertology
, and
@mcheerwx
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How long has it been since the two best teams all season actually met in the natty on both the men’s and women’s side?
Very excited for the games today and tomorrow!
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Quick calc Paymon of 345.
Will be one of my lowest ever, but I’m not all that frustrated by it given the committee’s choice to snort coke immediately before seeding and bracketing.
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Paymon Score as I calculated it live: 364
A little disappointed I didn't achieve my goal of 370+ this year, but another year of experience in the books.
Correctly picked 67/68 bids (missed on Rutgers, had TAMU in), but went 67/67 on seeding correct teams +/- 1 seed line.
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – February 26th
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Dearest Selection Committee,
If Indiana State does not win the MVC conference tournament, they 1000% deserve an at-large bid.
Warm Regards,
Joe
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The biggest story line is absolutely, without a doubt the 100% disrespect of the Mountain West. How did this happen?
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@Sheehan_Sports
After I read the first sentence, I was really hoping to see Dinner Party or Threat Level Midnight so I could rally behind it.
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BEST BETS (3/22) - Early Games
Colgate/Baylor Under 138.5
SDSU/UAB Over 139.5
Clemson/UNM Under 152.5
Clemson (+2.5)
Colorado (-1)
Colorado/Florida Under 158
Overall 2024 Record: 14-2
The model wrapped up the nightcap at 4-1, so it’s sitting at 14-2. I’m in disbelief.
We’re targeting 53% accuracy here, and in a small sample, it’s at 87.5%! This performance is unsustainable and regression to the mean will happen, but what a fun ride it has been so far.
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The model wrapped up the nightcap at 4-1, so it’s sitting at 14-2. I’m in disbelief.
We’re targeting 53% accuracy here, and in a small sample, it’s at 87.5%! This performance is unsustainable and regression to the mean will happen, but what a fun ride it has been so far.
BEST BETS (3/21) - Late Games
Texas (-2.5)
Kentucky/Oakland Under 160.5
Gonzaga (-6.5)
Gonzaga/McNeese Under 149.5
Washington State ML
Overall 2024 Record: 9-1 (Dayton/Nevada still TBD)
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@SethDavisHoops
Folks need to understand that Pomeroy and Sagarin metrics are PREDICTIVE analytics and measure performance expectation. The committee is (and should be) seeding teams based on actual results, not what they're expected to do come tournament time.
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Status Update:
I can get out some best bets for tonight’s play-in games before they tip.
Futures, bracket advice, and 10K sim projections will come out tomorrow.
Now that bracketology has wrapped up, my real passion takes full swing - projecting tournament outcomes!
In the next day or two, I will be releasing bracket simulation results (10,000 sims), tips for winning your bracket pool, and a R64/futures best bets guide. Stay tuned!
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@itsAntWright
Hopefully this is a wake-up call like the 2004 Olympics were for US Men’s basketball.
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Rehashing a blurb from my “How to Win Your Bracket Pool” article.
All of these picks were straight from my predictive model, and they went 4/4.
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I’ll want to see the new NET and what my model spits out tomorrow morning to say for certain, but I’m fairly confident Michigan State will be a seed that rhymes with eleven in tomorrow’s bracket update.
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@SethDavisHoops
Why would Houston not take Kansas City if they are ahead of Kansas on the S-curve?
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 13th
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Bubble thoughts from Vegas…
Suggests Michigan State is essentially a lock, and St. John’s and Oklahoma are going to be right on the cut line.
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Spartan fans can turn their eyes to Missouri, Arkansas, and Maryland. Those are the teams that may push them down to the 8-line after today’s ugly loss.
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BEST BETS (3/21) - Early Games
Akron/Creighton Under 143.5
Arizona/LBSU Under 163.5
Illinois (-10.5)
Oregon/SC Over 134.5
Dayton ML
Overall 2024 Record: 5-1
BEST BETS (3/20)
Grambling (+4.5)
Grambling/Montana St Over 134.5
Colorado (-2.5)
Overall 2024 Record: 2-1
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@itsAntWright
@801bracketology
We really need to cool it with this derogatory usage of the name “Joe”
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 15th
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Good to know people are tracking! Never a doubt on the Colorado cover. Here we go:
BEST BETS (3/22) - Late Games
Purdue (-26.5)
Alabama/CofC Under 172.5
JMU/Wisconsin Over 143.5
Utah State (+4)
Overall 2024 Record: 17-5
Rough early slate at (likely) 3-3. That puts the model at 17-5 for 2024.
If this gets 10 likes, I’ll post some late game leverage opportunities!
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@atobey005
I'm just going to sit this right here and let it to stew for a little bit.
http://t.co/RBdKWzczXC
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 17th (Prelim AM)
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It’s the MOST wonderful tiiime of the yeeear….
There‘ll be bubble teams sweating and lots of fans yelling when 6 PM nears…
It’s the MOST wonderful tiiime of the yeeear.
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 3rd
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@trikai
@chasingscratch0
Don’t forget you also need to invest in recreating the Carl Weathers Learning Center featuring the Adam Young impact camera (utilizing Toptracer technology)
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Men’s College Basketball
In B10 conference games so far this season, the road team is 0-13. The road team has been called for 244 fouls in those games, while the home team has been called for 196 fouls.
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Back to back all ball steals for Michigan called fouls. Brutal anticipatory officiating.
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 12th (Final)
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Kenny Smith "Michigan doesn't ever have problems scoring." You just gave away that you haven't watched an ounce of Michigan basketball.
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BEST BETS (3/19)
Wagner (+3.5)
Wagner/Howard Over 127.5
Colorado St/UVA Over 120.5
Overall 2024 Record: 0-0
Status Update:
I can get out some best bets for tonight’s play-in games before they tip.
Futures, bracket advice, and 10K sim projections will come out tomorrow.
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Likely the last batch of best bets as my projected lines/totals become a bit stale for identifying marginal leverage.
BEST BETS (3/24)
Colorado (+4.5)
Baylor/Clemson Under 145.5
Northwestern (+14.5)
Houston (-8.5)
Houston/TAMU Under 134.5
Overall 2024 Record: 21-9 (70%)
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Always fun talking Spartans and B10 in March with Matt!
🗣FRESH EPISODE
-One of the nation's best bracketologists (
@131sports
) joins!
-How high (or low) can MSU go on the seed line?
-Nick Marsh decommits
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@Wil__Hunter
Other than cheering for Michigan St. themselves, Spartans are also Georgetown fans tonight. The Duke/Georgia Tech game also one to watch... though I’m not entirely certain who y’all should be rooting for in that one ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Jay Wright is what every college basketball coach should strive to be
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Mo kept us in the game... Zavier closed. Huge win for tournament resume.
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It’s true, and it’s not over yet.
Oregon could join NC State and steal another bid, as Colorado is a near lock for an at-large at this point.
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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 6th
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@HoopsHopeCBB
@yanksZags
We got a Forester right after the birth of my first. Welcome to team Subaru… you will not regret the decision.
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Before the game tipped off, I imagined the best start possible for Michigan against Villanova. This start is better than what I imagined.
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I’m guilty of defining FAU as a Cinderella story.
For me, Cinderella: Any non-major conference team that doesn’t have previous history of tournament success making a deep tournament run.
They had 0 NCAA tournament wins coming into this year, and now they’re in the final 4.
I can’t get over people calling FAU a “Cinderella” team. This isn’t an 10 loss/4th in CAA VCU team or something like that.
FAU is a damn good team and is a 6 seed, 7 at the absolute worst. Anyone who watched CUSA would be aware. The committee putting FAU/Memphis as an 8/9 game
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This is why NFL players kneel. Institutionalized racism is real.
Let’s work together to do what we have to do to fix it. ✊🏿✊🏾✊🏽✊🏼✊🏻
Officers are accused of racial profiling after stopping a car with two Black men inside for no apparent reason
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@DaveCPier
@SethDavisHoops
I personally would've given nod to Rhode Island over Gonzaga (though I have the Zags as top 5-seed, as seen here: ). The Oklahoma inclusion was the only thing I had a problem with from this preview. If I wanted to get real finicky, Clemson was underrated.
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Hard to say who had the best 1st half in this game. Easy to say who had the worst 1st half: DJ Carstensen.
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http://t.co/sbWXPJbE6V
Steph Curry lookin like
@atobey005
when he would dangle
@ryangee97
during practice.
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Step 1. Put people on the committee that actually know the teams and their team sheets inside and out.
Step 2. Force every conference tournament to wrap up by Friday night.
Step 3. Force new selection committee to not start the seeding/bracketing process until Saturday morning.
This is the one. This is the worst I've seen of it. Damning as hell for the committee. The more I see, the more I think Tennessee is one of the worst mis-seedings in tournament history.
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//Checks college football defensive rankings// \\Checks college basketball defensive rankings\\
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If the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament started today, Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State would all miss the cut.
The last time that happened was 1976.
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Original tweet got deleted somehow, so rehashing it for those that need last minute guidance before R64 of the tournament kicks off tomorrow:
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@DelphiBrackets
@SluderBrackets
@AndyBottoms
@BracketguyDave
I really appreciate being mentioned. Bracketology is a true passion of mine, and I’m glad there are other folks in the same boat!
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Shout out to
@atobey005
@BrandenPavlov
@Drut2402
@bballjamin73
@Josh13Barnes
@arood12
for the clean sweep of Mooney tonight.
#gametime
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@FakePBrown89
@Derick_Hutch
You should always listen to my bracket projections... They're infallible.
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And with last night, we wrap another year. I am happy with the overall performance (second tournament in a row of 60%+).
Final Overall 2024 Record: 23-12 (65.7%)
Likely the last batch of best bets as my projected lines/totals become a bit stale for identifying marginal leverage.
BEST BETS (3/24)
Colorado (+4.5)
Baylor/Clemson Under 145.5
Northwestern (+14.5)
Houston (-8.5)
Houston/TAMU Under 134.5
Overall 2024 Record: 21-9 (70%)
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That being called a block on Coleman Hawkins was laughable.
College officials are never going to get the block/charge calls right, are they?
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In general, it shows that in years past, the committee has placed a marginally lower emphasis on Saturday/Sunday game results (based on feature importance and Shapley values) relative to games in February and early March.
We’re nearing the point of diminishing returns for wins in the committee’s eyes (based on my bracketology predictive model outputs).
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Tricky one.
Only real precedent I can remember is the 2008 Georgia team that miraculously got the auto bid. I believe they got a 14-seed.
My hunch is Temple would be a 15, but I’d hear arguments for 14 or 16.
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To my
#1
podcast of 2021, Chasing Scratch: A Golf Podcast: thank you for keeping me company on
@Spotify
all year long!
#SpotifyWrapped
Let’s go let’s go.
@chasingscratch0
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@CondorianFM
Bingo.
One of my biggest pet peeves as a bracketologist is seeing people retroactively justify a bubble team’s inclusion in the field of 68 after they win the play-in game and the 11/6 game.
Syracuse almost every single season comes to mind.
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@verbosedutch
The good ole happiness hedge!
Think of a loss bet as paying a few bucks for the Spartans to get a bid.
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Aggregate South: 31
Aggregate East: 36
Aggregate West: 37
Where is the competitive balance?
Committee leaned too heavily into maintaining geographic proximity. I’d be pissed if I was Alabama and got this draw.
All of the Top 16 projected seeds have been announced.
@IndianaMBB
,
@MarquetteMBB
,
@XavierMBB
and
@ZagMBB
round out the No. 4 seeds.
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2 months, 250+ total hours of studying paid dividends! Just passed SOA/CAS Exam MFE/3F!
#pumped
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1. Selection Sunday
T-2. Every other day of the college basketball season
Top-5 college basketball days:
5. First night of the year
4. Thursday of conference tournament week
3. Friday of conference tournament week
2. Thursday of NCAA T first round
1. Friday of NCAA T first round
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Good win for Michigan. Now go and get one of these last two so we don't have to sweat on March 13th.
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