Thlither
@0xthlither
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Just an enjoyoor of technological coins, Ripple pump class of 2017
Joined July 2023
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Pinned Tweet
Time for a ultra deep dive into
@pendle_fi
YT
Those who aped into
@ethena_labs
YT-USDe a month ago will be handsomely rewarded Tuesday when $ENA drops. If you have fomo, want to learn about what YT are, how they’re priced, and which one you should look at today, read on
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YT OPTIMIZATION ALFA
It's important to understand the advantage of a 50% sat boost for
@ethena_labs
s2, much more easily attainable through the newly-launched
@pendle_fi
YT ENA pool
Pretend you wanna farm $ena and have $1k to ape into
@pendle_fi
YT - let's take a look at 4
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got a DM today: why is the TVL visible on
@pendle_fi
much lower than their stated TVL?
If you add up the total liquidity on Pendle markets, it only comes out to about $1b, but on
@DefiLlama
it's listed as $3.66b. Why?
SHORT ANSWER: liq ≠ SY
LONG
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Some basic math re locking $ena for
@ethena_labs
s2 airdrop
(hint: do it if you're bullish and were planning on holding anyways)
NFA/DYOR
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SAT COUNT UPDATE
20 days into Ethena s2, a lot of us are carefully watching the total sat number. I originally predicted a possible total of 10T, but how is this holding up?
This post covers 3 things: up-to-date sat projection, campaign length, and how to approach the future
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sUSDe yield now at 37.2%, so here's what $1 would return buying:
1) vanilla sUSDe on
@ethena_labs
2)
@pendle_fi
PT sUSDe
3) pendle YT sUSDe
GCR said the man who chases 2 rabbits catches neither. This applies here - choose yield or points, don't split the difference (nfa/dyor)
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SAT MATH TIME BABY
The whole TL is talking about sats and
@ethena_labs
season 2, but what could a sat actually be worth? Join me on a journey of highly speculative math as I try to answer this question by finding:
1) the total number of sats that will be created, and
2) the
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I’m still heavily in Ethena eco/ena as a levered eth bet. Not the purest beta, but the entire protocol is designed to capture value in the event of eth pumping
Not surprised to see sUSDe redemptions and TVL stagnation when protocol yield is only 8.6%
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A lot of people asking me what sats are worth for
@ethena_labs
s2
Impossible to say right now. With different collateral, new pools and multipliers, a longer campaign term and many more participatooors, sat rate will be totally different from shard rate. In a week or so there’ll
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if you enjoyed this, show me some love by signing up for EtherFi thru my ref link! Gotta pump <my_bags> somehow right?
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1 more for the day: copy this into a new sheet & you'll have a snapshot-style airdrop status checker for
@ethena_labs
s2
Really simply, just divides your sats by total sats and runs thru some airdrop % and price scenarios
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WHAT DOES PENDLE DO
Pendle takes your dual-yield asset (like $eETH), wraps it to form a basket of collateral (standardized yield), splits the yield into those two components and mints tokenized representations of each - these are called principal tokens (PT) and yield tokens (YT)
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@krugermacro
Eth will become useless in that enterprise blockchain apps will be gasless, but I think the eth staking ponzi is still v early
wait til the boomers discover bitcoin with yield
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If you add up these projections across the 89 day term, I'm estimating that each 1 eth in YT purchased will earn $18,979, which is $213/day or a ~2,124% apy (this math could change, dyor)
It's not too late to buy - just go to the pool () and swap!
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Seeing some confusion on this, YT USDe has been added into the 50% boost category for
@ethena_labs
s2, so make sure you lock $ENA equal to at least half of your other positions if you want to capture that
PRIORITIZE YT, if u can’t hit 50% don’t panic, still earning many sats
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Stuff to watch next week:
Ethena - $ENA goes live Tuesday / S2 details announced soon (might make a longer post about this). Consensus FDV upon TGE seems to be $5-8b,
@aevoxyz
prices it at $9.79b via its premarket perps. Happy day for all my diligent farmoors
Degen Shenanigans
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S2 airdrop = 5% of supply = 50m tokens
Current $ETHFI price = $6.70, so s2 drop value is currently $335m, $0.00039/pt
Rough point count calc: 50b points in s1, variable rate means ~850b total points by end of s2
Total Ethfi Pts Value = (35.8m/850b)*$335m = $14,109/eth
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This is the 1st time since mid ‘21 that 100% of my positions are focused on farming, I don’t have a single long or short position cooking in the near-term
To those who feel lost - focus on trying to turn your eth into more eth. If you believe in this market, it’s the only move
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REAL VS IMPLIED YIELD
Before moving on to YT, let’s break these 2 pieces down further using
@ether_fi
$eETH as an example:
Real Yield: $eETH returns 3.29% apy. This is “real” yield - the money you actually earn today from holding $eETH
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...if you enter, make sure you watch the YT price like a hawk, and set your own risk tolerances. Do what you need to do to know the risks. I think the YT tree has much more fruit to bear, and I plan to be sitting under it drinking sweet nectar until it withers away
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YT - for point maxis: if you swap your $eETH for YT, you forgo all protocol yield, but in return you will earn a multiple on implied yield. Currently, YT-eETH earn 24x total etherfi points and 12x eigen points
If you're still confused, read on
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I’ve said many times that farming ethena s2 is allll about fighting dilution
This is a huge source of dilution. Make sure you’re hitting the 100% boost, 2 good ways to do this are:
> buying more YT ENA (understand the risks!)
> (s1 vestoors) locking % of your first month’s vest
Based on community feedback the $ENA liquidity lock has been simplified to further align incentives for longer term participants
Users can now lock $ENA to receive a scaled sats boost up to 100% based on the amount of $ENA locked relative to USDe positions
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Now that you hopefully have a basic understanding of Pendle, let's talk numbers around its clear best current offering:
@ether_fi
YT-eETH
EtherFi just commenced its season 2 campaign, and plans to airdrop 6% of their supply (currently worth $335m) in the coming months
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Eigenlayer is a good reminder of the farmer’s paradox
Sometimes we’re the ones farming, sometimes we’re being farmed - there’s little way to know which until claim day
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Tagging some frens who helped me with this research:
@sershokunin
@NotSoAnonJoo
@maybeYonas
(check out his LRT dashboards on Dune)
also huge shout out to
@Defi_Maestro
and
@PendleIntern
for continuously posting great content / educating me on this stuff unknowingly. Chads
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Q: Where does 24x leverage come from?
A: High available leverage for YT means that more PT have been minted in comparison. Because of this, there is an outsized amount of implied yield available (forgone by PT holders), which explains where the insane leverage on points comes
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Something to keep an eye on if you can potentially farm 3 blue chip airdrops at once (
@eigenlayer
,
@ethena_labs
and
@ether_fi
)
The Liquid product is the largest DeFi strategy product in crypto, but we’re just getting started 📈
Next week we’re launching the second Liquid vault, a USD market neutral strategy!
Save, invest and spend [soon] in crypto.
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Post shakeout to do list:
- 2-3x long perps on the stuff that showed relative strength ( $ENA mainly)
- buy meme coins I missed out on like $BODEN
- continue to pray $ZKS airdrop is soon
- till my fields, check my crops, make sure the farm is still in order
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PT - for real yield maxis: if you swap your $eETH for PT, you will earn a multiple on the protocol yield (staking apy) today. PT-eETH currently earns 42% fixed apy, but you will forgo all of your implied yield (EtherFi points)
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Additionally if you've been living under a rock and still haven't joined Ethena, here's that
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3. THOUGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
I think a lot of people will be caught off guard if s2 runs until completion in Sep. Here's what I'm thinking about to stay prepared:
> YT holders: as you move towards expiry in June/July, see if you can swap into a new pool intead of letting your
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@crypthoem
Think like an ant - have a nest and soldiers
HW wallet = nest: protect at all costs, long term positions, don’t interact with anything, no need to trade there.
Metamask(s) = soldier(s): can venture out into the scary world to do battle w/ random airdrop farms, DEXs, dapps,
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If only someone w 40 followers at the time had started tweeting about
@ethena_labs
on launch day, most obvious turbo unicorn I’ve ever seen in crypto…
Aight final bullpost for now, sat math coming soon
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If you’re farming multiple projects with multiple timelines, make sure you ALWAYS have some spare capital ready to deploy.
You never know when new pools/caps/partnerships will be announced and it’s easy to be caught offside
A good farmer always has more seeds to plant 🌽
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EXIT PLAN
As you may remember, YT decay to 0, so if you buy it's important to figure out what % of principal you want to keep. In the case of Ethena YT-USDe, it made mathematical sense to let them decay to 0 because of their point earning power, but etherfi may be different...
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@sershokunin
@NotSoAnonJoo
@maybeYonas
@Defi_Maestro
@PendleIntern
Can’t believe I made a typo in line 1 -__-
An********* ultra deep dive (damn it)
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@burrytracker
This is a terrible tweet and here’s why:
100k shares controlled in a listed SOXX put position w mkt val of $47.36m means that he bought 1000 put contracts marked when the stock was at $473.65
1000 contracts x 100 shares per contract x $473.65 share price = $47.365m
This means
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Implied Yield: holding $eETH also earns you EtherFi loyalty points, which aren't worth anything now but will be when the campaign ends. Each 1 $eETH held earns 10,000 EF points/day, as well as 24 Eigenlayer points/day
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FAQ
Q: How are PT and YT priced?
A: The prices of the two are determined by the ratio between them, and will always add up to 1 of the underlying asset. So, if 9 people mint PT and 1 people mints YT, PT would cost 0.9eth and YT would cost 0.1eth
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Thinking about doing an in depth post about current state of ethena s2/how I’m farming it, drop a like if you wanna see it 🫡
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Q: Where do these yields come from?
A: Both yields are fueled by the full basket of underlying collateral that you give to Pendle. So the YT earn points on all $eETH swapped for both YT and PT, and the vice versa for the PT
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Factors Affecting Total Sat Count
There are two main variables to account for here: inflation and deflation:
INFLATION
> pools continue to fill (esp Pendle)
> creation of new pools
> participation increases
> $ena pumps
DEFLATION
> campaign outlasts Pendle pool expiries,
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@Flip_Research
@pendle_fi
This is awesome, great stuff flip, u created your own Pendle spread trade. Also great way to hedge Eigen TGE maybe being earlier than expected
My only note would be to quote a great trader who said “he who chases 2 rabbits catches neither”
Still important to calculate point
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2. CAMPAIGN LENGTH
Ethena says that S2 will end either on 9/2 or at $5b USDe minted. Growth slowed after the airdrop, negative $eth funding, and capital exhaustion.
I FIND IT UNLIKELY S2 WILL END EARLY
I'm planning for a full term campaign, but things could quickly change
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@ethena_labs
team says sat count issues should be fixed now, give this a try to see where you stand
1 more for the day: copy this into a new sheet & you'll have a snapshot-style airdrop status checker for
@ethena_labs
s2
Really simply, just divides your sats by total sats and runs thru some airdrop % and price scenarios
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All good stuff
TLDR: locking $ENA is part of a well balanced breakfast, but don’t freak out if you’re in YT, they’re not worthless either
Some random thoughts about $ENA S2:
Honestly feel that after the updates to $ENA sats last night - Locking $ENA and LPing on Pools have higher RR compared to YTs
Degens like me might just op for more lev longs on $ENA perps instead. Direct exposure to $ENA price growth.
YT is
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Q: What do the maturities mean?
A: PT and YT have attached maturities - the dates until which Pendle guarantees the yield. At maturity, all PT will be redeemable for 1 $eETH, and all YT will be worthless, as YT price is meant to decay with the shrinking implied yield remaining
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SUMMARY
Campaign end: 6/26 (89 days)
24x etherfi points = 12x lev * 2x etherfi pts mult
12x eigen points = 12x lev * 1x eigen pts mult
Price of 1 YT = 0.08266 eth (means that only 8.2% of total $eETH collateral has been minted into YT)
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This is why it’s pure cancer / a bad idea to farm every single airdrop, rip
napkin maths of airdrops this year:
$TNSR: 30k put in, 10k burnt, 8k drop💀
$PRCL: 50k put in, 0.8k burnt, 9k drop
$tia: 100k in, bought @ ~6 + $alt drop, 50k uPnL
$dym: 100k in, bought @ ~5, $nim is 0, -40k uPnL💀
$OMNI: where tf did I get this again? was a 15k drop
$friend: 2k
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@0xLawliette
This one takes the cake lmao, OG sniper on Dwight Howard BALLERS rug. Obscene cost basis 😂
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Now, on to sat value. Using
@NotSoAnonJoo
's $ENA pricing tweet as a guideline, I came up with these scenarios for airdrop size (assuming 7.5%) and sat value:
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1. CURRENT SAT RATE
Season 2 started on April 2, and the Ethena app last updated April 21, but here are some numbers:
> total sats created: 827b
> total sat earning days: 20
> maximum campaign days remaining: 134 (on 4/21)
827b/20d = ~41.4b sats per day
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POINT MATH
EtherFi
1 $eETH earns 10k points/day
Progressing through “Stakeranks” 2x's your point rate
+1 rank every 100hrs you stake, 7 ranks = 29 days
On day 30, earning 2x points
YT total points = 1x rate period + 2x rate period
=(10k*24*29)+(10k*24*60*2)= 35.8m pts/eth
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I think this is a decent bet for
@zksync
anti-Sybil. They can’t realistically catch everyone, so the carrot+stick method is next best thing
10% of Sybil allocation for sleuths in Phase 3 is a massive incentive. Expect people to go HARD identifying Sybil wallets for free money
The Sybil filtering process is as follows
Phase 1: Self-report for 15% of intended allocation
Phase 2: LZ Labs sybil report. Sybil caught get 0.
Phase 3: Bounty hunter program. Catch a Sybil, get 10% of their intended allocation.
Users first.
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If u enjoyed, throw me a follow and a like
If u SOMEHOW still haven't signed up for ethena:
Ty ty, happy farming folks
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I've compiled all my Pendle posts for your convenience so you don't have to sift through my many food posts. I've always wanted to be a chef and see the smiles on my customers' faces. So, for now, I'm a web3 amateur analyst, hoping to see your smiles instead.🧵👇👇
@pendle_fi
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Only an elite show can catch u so off guard that u actually stand up and put your hands on your head out of shock, even if watching alone
Shogun did that to me last night 😮💨
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Total Sat Count
For simplicity's sake I'm going to assume inflation outweighs deflation by 25%, so let's predict a total count
827b + (41.4b*134) + (41.4*134*0.25)
= 7.75 trillion sats on Sep 2
This is roughly in line with my original prediction of 10T, and still may be low
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I feel like people are undervaluing just how silly things could get in late 24 —> 25
The multigenerational institutional bull market you’ve all foretold has just begun, $btc and $eth haven’t even broken their inflation-adjusted ATH’s, the $eth etf meta has yet to even get going
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This
@WazzCrypto
vs
@blknoiz06
feud is fascinating lol
In one corner a guy who has diligently reported on complex topics like WAVES for years, in the other a guy who shills shitcoins and is making a documentary about partying, which do u trust more anon?
Also
@0xMert_
gtfo
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That's all for now, hmu if you have any thoughts, oh yeah here's another ref link for all the non believers
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YT-eETH also earn
@eigenlayer
Points
@WhalesMarket
Eigen point value = $0.19/pt
1 eth earns 1 point per hour = 24 pts/day
YT total points = 24*12*89 = 25,632 pts/eth
Total Eigen Points Value = 25632*$0.19 = $4,870/eth
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@PendleIntern
reiterating something I’ve been telling people
if you’re a YT USDe holder you should be rooting for $5b tvl as sooooon as possible, fewer campaign days = higher % of total sats earned by YT + fewer overall sats
Fooled around with some
@ethena_labs
SATS projections and things are looking up for YT-USDe on
@0xMantle
👀
Based on current price of ~80% Implied APY so any lower + earlier and you should be looking at something even yummier
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VARIABLES
- Campaign length: if they really end at $5b TVL, they're on track to end the campaign in 59 days
- Sats/day: ~35b sats/day being produced now, will use to estimate sat earning by dividing the daily sat rate by that number
- Assuming a 7.5% airdrop of 1.125b $ena
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I swear once a year Egorov goes on liquidation watch, hope his humble shed in AU is safe
$140M CRV nearing Liquidation
Curve founder Michael Egorov is currently borrowing $95.7M in stablecoins (mostly crvUSD) against $141M in CRV, across 5 accounts on 5 protocols.
Based on current rates, Egorov is paying $60M annualized in order to keep his positions open on
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Excellent strat to farm
@ethena_labs
S2 while maintaining exposure to spot ENA. Chad work
Alfa Drop for
@ethena_labs
S2
I did a few different scenario and outcomes:
Scenario 1 : TVL growth rate = Season 1
Scenario 2 : TVL growth rate 30% > Season 1
Scenario 3 : TVL growth rate 70% > Season 1
In all 3 scenarios, S2 will end on different days:
"The Sats Campaign
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If a massive asteroid hits earth, humanity is nearly wiped out, civilization collapses…
… $RLB still probably ranges between $0.10-0.12 💀
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Ethena offers 5 main ways to earn sats, all of which feature different rates. If you need to refresh yourself on specifics of the S2 campaign, check out
@ethena_labs
' Mirror posts. Now, let's take an in-depth look at exactly how many sats each of these 5 categories will create:
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Live look at ZK farmers who spent 800 days looping $1 thru syncswap and minting .zk domains for a $100 airdrop:
enjoying the big drama in zksync discord lmao
side note: hope they correct the airdrop amount. I was one of the first using zksync lite, provide lp, minting zkpunk and all i got is 0.
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@dcfgod
Who knows but here’s a cash parallel, dude stole $140k, gave it all to poor people/charities, caught & served time, only $16k was recovered
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@burrytracker
“Bought 47m of puts” I think you mean he bought $5m of puts with a NOTIONAL VALUE of $47m. That’d be much more accurate
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BEFORE WE START, DISCLAIMERS:
- This is a highly speculative model. In no way should you treat these numbers as fact
- This model does not account for the possibility of yet-to-be-announced Pendle pools (big change in total sats), or other
@ethena_labs
partnerships
- This model
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@ethena_labs
Season 2 headlines:
- shards are called sats now, and this campaign RUNS UNTIL SEP 2 2024, which means you will have lots of time to farm. Get on it early and you’ll be rewarded
- more Pendle liquidity coming babyyyy. Both in the original pool ($100m cap space
Details on Season 2: Sats Campaign 💥
Details in the following tweet:
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Q: How can I exit my YT position?
A: You can swap out of YT (back to $eETH) at any time for the current exchange rate. It's possible you'll make or lose money, but the pools remain liquid and you can always swap back if YT price is greater than 0
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Good to see someone is hunting down real criminals instead of
@Uniswap
…
1/ How Lazarus Group laundered $200M from 25+ crypto hacks to fiat from 2020 - 2023
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I’ve only made 1 trade in the last 48hrs: a small leverage (3x) $ENA long on
@aevoxyz
, scaled in around $1, arbitrum let me avoid 0.5eth gas on mainnet
Had no other leverage open, took a decent % loss on paper in my spot bags, but nothing to do now except hold the line
Ty
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Well damn, this trade looks even better after the hellish events of the last 24h. Flip’s chilling with his yield and points, unbothered/moisturized in his Pendle spread
There's a simple strategy that allows you to leverage farm points on
@pendle_fi
without all of the YT risk.
The trick is to look at pools with the same underlying asset, and maturities, but with different APYs. Eg:
- The June ezETH (Zircuit) pool is at 67.9%, PT trading at
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@0xSimeon
@ethena_labs
@pendle_fi
For the 50% boost they treat:
1 YT USDe as 1 USDe
1 YT ENA as 1 ENA
So your combined holdings of locked ENA and YT ENA (in YT) need to be at least 50% of your combined USDe + YT USDe holdings for it to kick in
Ex: if I had 500 locked USDe & 500 YT USDe, 200 locked ENA and
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@Flip_Research
@ethena_labs
@pendle_fi
Seems like u may be right, this changes the math but only by a bit. Same principle applies!
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God damn it I deserve this
If a massive asteroid hits earth, humanity is nearly wiped out, civilization collapses…
… $RLB still probably ranges between $0.10-0.12 💀
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@ethguzzler
@pendle_fi
@ethena_labs
PT redeemable 1:1 at maturity, redeemable today at current exchange rate (which is 1 minus YT price). 1 PT = ~0.91eth right now
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